Santa Is In The Building!

So based on the comment stream it seems that some of you guys are still confused about the meaning of a trend day signal or a lack thereof. Thus let me cover this one last time: It is only a signal based on a 45 min assessment of the NYSE TICK. Doesn’t mean the market cannot take off without it. There is a obviously a difference between a trend day signal and a market that is trending in general. The former you get when you see 90% of positive ticks in the first 45 minutes (or hour – however you measure it) of the NYSE session. The latter you can get anytime when a ton of POMO cash is sloshing around the system day after day. Now, NOT getting that signal does not mean that market won’t run later in the day. I hope that is clear now.

Before we get to equities I’d like to do a little post scriptum on today’s wipe out in silver. It’s important we do these things so that everyone is intimately familiar with how we do things here in the evil lair. If you are a sub then you probably recall yesterday’s setup:

I still think silver is looking very interesting here. Either daily and weekly support holds up and we push higher or we trigger a stacked sell signal, which would be equally profitable. The key seems in what happens here on the short term side. You can play that 25-hour SMA for your entries – to the up or downside

This morning via an email to all my subs I followed up with this chart:

Looks like silver is sitting at its 25-hour SMA again – please see the enclosed chart. There is a NLBL above, which may be a more reliable entry - it’ll most likely also force a direction.

Emphasis on the last part of that sentence – there is a reason why I say these things. Now if you have been here for more than a week then you know how homey usually plays these setups. A breach above the NLBL would have been a solid long. But as soon as the 25-hour gave way this immediately turned into failed break out and thus a potential short setup:

And here’s what happened in the past few hours  - silver fell off the plate and is now trading below its 100-day SMA. Of course we had no way of knowing but if you took the setup then you just banked some mighty coin. Now, if we are lucky then we may get a last kiss goodbye before it embarks on its final journey through the valley of death. But if you are familiar with the simple entry rules that we take here day after day after day then the breach of the 25-hour SMA was your signal to take on a short position and you would be already positioned comfortably.

Santa is finally in the building! Today’s spike (whatever caused it – I really don’t care) now pushed us to the final hurdle – the 1440 volume hold which I covered over a week ago. As you can see we stabbed higher and fell back almost exactly at the low point of the volume hole. Which answers the question as to why I use this chart in the first place. If equities manage to lift higher and into 1450 then we will probably paint new highs before the year is over.

And if we complete the week above this NLBL then we have an official weekly long signal. Which has me a bit conflicted as I am seeing some cracks on the long term side. However, anything can happen during the final two weeks of the year and I am not about to start arguing with price, which as we all know is our final arbiter of truth.

I hope some of you grabbed Alcoa yesterday as it really took off nicely today. CCJ is also looking good but hasn’t punched higher just yet. If it keeps going it may lift over the 25-week SMA, and that’s a long term buy signal.

I have two potential long term setups for you FX aficionados – they could carry us through much of 2013:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 18th, 2012 at 2:14 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Microwave_Prince

    Waiting until IBM hits 225 to buy puts on the POS.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Here – since you’re a good boy and actually are posting symbols today ;-)

    Daily NLBL breach on IBM – 100-day SMA at 197.6 and 25-week SMA at 196.6.

  • Microwave_Prince

    This is Fibz by the way. The kind of attitude you guys throw at people you don’t recognize is fucking lame. See ya later.

  • Skynard

    FIBZ, good to see you in disguise:)

    Wondered where you went.

  • Pervergence

    full long es

  • Skynard

    That was a fakeout:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    Russel over SPY,
    looks like Russel tide coming in.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p58015589030

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Was trying to help out – not sure what pissed you off…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DJT weekly in case anyone missed the daily..

    mkt signalling are that it wants to go higher..crazy maybe..but don’t fight it..at least not yet!

  • ridingwaves

    Bought PATH, over 20 and 50sma, volume moving in with FDA decision in early Jan. solid resistance right here, might be able to get in lower but it could run to 4.50 fast…next resistance..over the 360sma right now which was trendline…in bio news does matter…

    stop at 3.25…

    http://s12.postimage.org/6y09eucj1/PATH.jpg

  • Skynard

    ZL breakout for 1440 test.

  • Pervergence

    would be nice….

  • ridingwaves

    ARNA is going to run big….momo building….6 days to cover for shorts, the biggest selling drug next year….lots of obese people….Go baby go..

  • Skynard

    Where is JJ? He should be all over this tape:)

  • Skynard

    Not picking tops, but this sucks looks inviting:)

  • Skynard

    Looks like another back test on the daily’s.

  • Pervergence

    Still watching my long ES move around……so far so good

  • Pervergence

    1/2 off for a nice profit….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    if JJ was around I’d mention the 100ma daily on the Q’s

  • Pervergence

    Got out at the close…….

  • ronebadger

    Got the NDX Buy Signal on the VXN BBs today.

    Got a “cheater’s” buy signal on the VIX (if you don’t follow the rules “exactly”)

    Meanwhile, SPX is above upper BB for the first time in 3 months

  • tradem4alpha

    Why NDX? I mean, buy NASDAQ100, not S&P?

  • ronebadger

    Not a perfect signal on the VIX/SPX, but it’s a bona fide signal on the VXN/Nasdaq100 (NDX).  See cheat sheet

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure what you are referring to.

  • ronebadger

    Correct me if I’m wrong… VXN is the volatility index for NDX.  2 days ago it closed above the upper BB, the next two days (Mon & Tue) it was lower each day and below the upper BB.  I’m ASSUMING the VXN works like the VIX signal on the cheat sheet.  Maybe I’m all wet; I don’t recall discussions about the VXN in this forum.  I never tested it…I’m just assuming.  (Regarding the VIX (equity) buy signal, it technically never happened…just real close, and looks real close on the chart.)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “I’m ASSUMING the VXN works like the VIX signal on the cheat sheet. ”

    Ah – there it is… ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Here’s another one for posterity :-)

  • AMCabrera
  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/dbc27ff8-b467-4caa-bbac-dac5cb0d1413/2012-12-18_1801.png
    just a blip at the bottom but we will soon find out how big it is gbp/chf double red.

  • Skynard

    Tight BB on the hourly, now it is time to short this sucka:)

  • Skynard

    /ES div on the hourly, just looking for a pull back.

  • Skynard

    Chart

  • newbfxtrader

    Yen pairs are going bonkers again…

  • Skynard

    Long the Yen and short AUD/JPY now:) It is time!

  • AMCabrera

    everything is bonkers. I would not call it systemic but some good ole fear needs to be applied.

  • Skynard

    Shorted GBPJPY gap:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    gap!? seriously?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    This chart reminds me of a D9R Caterpillar, just keeps on chugging.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p63786498088

  • AMCabrera

    gap? I mean it did just go linear past few hours..

  • AMCabrera

    8399 nzd/usd.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m back in Bro

    And FWIW, I also shorted NZD/CAD

  • AMCabrera

    welcome back kotter!

  • Skynard

    Do not usually do that, but it just punched the weekly 100 upper BB.

  • AMCabrera

    hourly nzd/usd needs to give at the 200sma.

  • AMCabrera

    all I need is a nasty 300 pips down weekly candle for aud and nzd lol.

  • AMCabrera

    and mole makes fun of me because of my exotic pairs. Although Im sure it looks just like nzd/usd.

  • Skynard

    Got a reversal on /NKD after missing the high:)

  • AMCabrera

    japanese nikkei 

  • Skynard

    Nighty Night:)

  • AMCabrera

    mmm that is an intense chart dont you agree.

  • Skynard

    Been keeping an eye out:)

  • Skynard

     :)

  • newbfxtrader

    For starters…..

  • newbfxtrader

    It wont provided the yen can catch a bid…

  • newbfxtrader

    Sky just FYI public opinion in lumber is at all time highs. 

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    Actually, I’ve begun to like the “exotics” much better than the conventional’s like the EUR/USD and USD/CAD because IMO some of the exotics behave much better and don’t get jerked around as much.

  • Skynard

    All in?

  • newbfxtrader

    Let me put it this way. According to sentiment report optimism in lumber exceeds the pessimism in Japanese yen……

  • Skynard

    That thing is ready to tumble by the looks:)

  • newbfxtrader

    At least going back to 2008.

  • Skynard

    /GC & /SI look ready F’d.

  • AmazingLarry

    Not evil enough. We just need everyone to believe they really are, truly F’ed. Shwing!

  • Skynard

    Think it’s time for a pseudo rally from bucky me thinks. Net short at the moment. Lets see how it plays out:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Heh I  have been thinking that for days now….

  • Skynard

    OPX really helps:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Eur/Jpy has strapped on the boosters…

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD.CAD popped a bit, along with equities. It seems currency/equity correlations are out of whack.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Subs – please check your email!

  • Skynard

    Got on the /SI train:)

  • BobbyLow

    That one was berry berry good to me.   :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    A bit late maybe?

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol good work I figured Sunday was exhaustion high but boy was I wrong.

  • Skynard

    That thing is in full bore motion now:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Got on the lumber truck here. Should be a good ride!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Silver/gold/dollar falling – equities on the run. See guys – this is why I don’t trade the news or my perception of what ‘ought to be happening’ :-)

  • newbfxtrader

    Timberrr….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Never ever underestimate the squeeze potential on the FX or commodities side.

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol yes every year it gets worse.
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r6SuRI3UOW8/UM6QbMo6ijI/AAAAAAAAOqI/-Cl–pHdsJA/s1600/Carry+Trade+COT.png

    Check it out. Every year the positioning gets more extreme…

  • Skynard

    With precious on the down ramp, does that blow the Fearless thesis?

  • Turps

    took it

  • ronebadger

    Just looked at lumber…looks like 5 waves up since end-Sept, including an ending diagonal 5th wave…(did I just mention “wave” twice”?!?!)

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah you are asking for a spanking. I was just discussing with Sky about it yesterday. Sentiment is at 5yr high also in case you are interested. Should be good for a pullback if not more.

  • newbfxtrader

    Nah. Just the timing. You are going senile if you think we are going to pay off our debts :) If you can trade gold in terms of yen should rocket next year. Take a look at long term yen charts. Nice head and shoulders. After a bounce we go for the ride.

  • Skynard

    AUDJPY never made a new high, down elevator. Not confirming this rally:)

  • bdoone

    CPCE yesterday: .51  is lowest reading since late April.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    pseudo rally Sky?, UUP just opened lower.  21.61

    http://s11.postimage.org/dvkj4kvar/pseudo.png

  • BobbyLow

    Could be.  

    All I know is that I allowed myself an extra warm and fuzzy feeling last night as well as this morning as all of my FX positions were going off like fireworks.  It was like pumping gas with the gas pump ticking off credits instead of charges.  Or in another words, Pips are us.   

    OK, enjoyment period is over.  It’s time to slap myself and get back to work.  :)

  • ridingwaves

    vix is perky…

  • Schwerepunkt

    Oil inventories at bottom of the hour. Last week, bac/ml predicted sub-$50 oil within two years. Oil has a big impact on dollar pairs. Not arguing to trade the news, just pointing out a bit of a wobble coming up in 15-min.

  • ridingwaves

    please oil go to 50, I will dump everything to get some oil contracts at that price..

  • Schwerepunkt

    It would be a fabulous trading opportunity and good for the economy. Would help with my USD income stream living in Canada. It would also help Mole in Spain. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Everybody and their mother is looking at $SPX 1440 as a key level. I don’t like it when everybody does the same thing . . . 

  • BobbyLow

    We’ve been way over supplied in oil for months now.  

    But the oil game includes keeping price levels up via ME “Tensions” as well as Nigeria Pipe Lines and all that rot. 

    And if that doesn’t work, they’ll play games with Refinery Utilization and “Weather Concerns”.  

    If oil was priced strictly by supply and demand we probably would be at $50 per barrel now.

    I believe the main effect on oil price regarding currencies is how strong the dollar is vs. other currencies.  This is because WTIC is priced in dollars therefore if the dollar is down, it takes more of them to buy a barrel of oil.

    The game is set in favor of high oil prices and is geared to what WC Fields said which is “Never Give a Sucker an Even Break”.   :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    I know there are many games going on, including futures backwardation/contango and floating storage follies. During the financial crash, oil dropped below $50 on a huge drop in demand. Now, with WTI we’ll have a lot more oil coming on the market with nowhere to go, especially in a weak economy. Brent is another story but WTI could keep going down until we start seeing massive production shut-ins. 

  • BobbyLow

    Agree.

    Price actually got down to $35 bl at the depths of the financial crisis.  This demonstrated the market at its best of overdoing everything. 

    Anyhow, here’s the report.  

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

     Released On 12/19/2012 10:30:00 AM For wk12/14, 2012
    PriorActualCrude oil inventories (weekly change)0.8 M barrels-1.0 M barrelsGasoline (weekly change)5.0 M barrels2.2 M barrelsDistillates (weekly change)3.0 M barrels3.0 M barrels

  • AMCabrera

    I have pulled my nzd/usd short at 8450 now I will keep my aud/usd short and add usd/sek long.

  • Pervergence

    Still short SI

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    I’m not looking at it.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • Skynard

    VWAP battle, it lost would be bearish. Mole signal spot on:)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Saved by the mole arrow – took off all my longs when it appeared. Tks mole, good day!

  • bdoone

    Seeing ES halted at the 25hr sma at 1441.60.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I aim to please.

  • Skynard

    Double whammy!

  • Skynard

    Sticking to the plan, check out those hourly signals:)

  • Pervergence

    Still S  SI

  • Pervergence

    full l es

  • Skynard

    ZL 5 min full circle where the rubber meets the road:)

  • Pervergence

    Here comes some participation

  • bdoone

    Front-running republican press conference in 10 mins.

  • Skynard

    Just fliped /es, out of shorts. ZL rules!

  • FSUinArizona

    Are you able to explain the arrows to me?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸




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