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Suckas!!!
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Suckas!!!

by The MoleJanuary 12, 2009

This goes out to you perma-bulls – in particular the line at 2:26:

We’re just getting warmed up over here – I warned you – 2009 is going to be ugly for you mouth breathers.

Cheers!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge
  • Z_Bob

    FDX is holding very nicely. Any kind of upside to the market should give a few points of profit on this one! Great call!

  • GMunni

    Mole, I think BWLD is in a channel from the recent high might be a bounce tomorrow but I suggest a short soon with a steep payoff. Also, LHCG broke from a rising wedge and is consolidating from the break. If it stays below the trend line, then it's going to be a nice short until at least $23. These are my suggestions as way of contribution for you efforts.

    One final one: if you play forex, then I think EUR.GBP is in a correction but it should be a great short at some point again. I was short last week from .96 and covered late in the week for 550 pips. Long right now with a small position but looking to punt it around .926 and re-enter short.

  • GoingForBroke

    Mole, Thanks for making my first zero trade a winner, it was all one way today for my short ETF. I'm praying now that there is no big Obama bounce on the way down to the crapper.

  • Insect Overlord

    Well, my first trade of 2009 was a nice winner. Here are the details…

    http://screencast.com/t/Q7AJI4HH

    I exposed more than I generally allow, but did so for the higher delta, which is a theme I'm going to stick with when able. ATM and slightly OTM options have not done me well in this chop suey market.
    I also feel a bit jazzed that I sold at the low of the day.
    I realize that there is probably a lot more downward potential, but it's opex, and my work schedule does not allow me being at the computer during the market. And given the choppiness, I think it's totally excusable to take profits quickly in this market. So I did. I'll wait for a trend (or at least until I have a more favorable track record) until I start letting winners truly run.

  • Loren1711

    Alright ladies and gentle men… I now present my newly created zero trading plan.

    Today seemed to be essentially the perfect tape for the zero. I witnessed a single false signal, which was quickly reversed. Unfortunately I felt as if I traded it poorly, so came home and created this. Hopefully having this and trading along side it should allow me and anyone who chooses to incorporate or tweak parts of it to utilize the zero to a greater extent.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/eQPNUsQGkC

    The picture was taking forever on my computer to view, as it is a screen shot of MS Word, but I had no idea how to upload a document otherwise. My apologies in advance.

    Keep in mind, this is very similar to the plan purported by Mole. Some things however are tweaked to my own situation. Also keep in mind that I only have access to an iPhone most days. This pretty much eliminates the use of limit orders, active charting, etc.

    Hopefully you guys can offer some input and critique it. Let me know if you have any questions

  • molecool

    How about you make this an RTF file and upload it via screencast directly. This way people can see it on Mac and Windoooz.

    Such proactive attitude will be rewarded with a free month once we go subscription (no worries – I'll give this a few more weeks).

  • Loren1711

    You sir are the coolest…

    Link above has been replaced. I had no idea you could upload documents to screencast, I thought it was solely pictures.

    Also, wonderful to hear you are going ahead with the pay to play version. Music to my, and I'm sure many other, ears.

    Having thought about this a little more, for what its worth, I will trade for the remainder of the week with nq contracts and then switch to es contracts for a couple reasons. The first is that the losses are surprisingly small, even when a trade does go awry. To be perfectly honest I have traded horribly the last week or so with the zero, and even then came out pretty well. My actual NQ PnL is in the green by about 100 bucks, but I've dropped about three times that on commissions, so I might as well go balls deep and jump on the ES train.

    The second is that after constructing this plan, the ability to hedge using a nq contract in the opposite direction seems like it could come in handy. ie around retracement levels, uncomfortable times etc.

    More comments as to the trade plan are anxiously awaited.

  • Loren1711

    Actually ignore the above link. Heres the new one. I can no longer edit the post.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Y4agWCFv

  • krazykev

    Hey Mole , Have you attended these programtrading before or are planning on attending one . If you have , has it benefitted your trading profit or insight . Seems very interesting – just like to know more . Thanks MOLE .

  • gagelle

    Did well shorting ARE today.

  • molecool

    I'm not going to chime in on the trading plan for now as I don't want to 'prime' the other rats. Let's hear from the crew first and then I speak my peace….

    Careful with the ES – there are advantages and disadvantages. It moves a lot faster and every point is $50. There's more volume though and you get hurt less by MMs due to slippage. Keep watching the NQ though as it is mostly leading.

  • Loren1711

    Essentially arbitrage between the SPX and ES? This is what the fair value calculation is, correct? I don't have a whole lot of time tonight, but it just a quick assumption leads me to believe one would need a hell of a lot of capital to pay for the 2 grand? quarterly subscription fee.

    Interested in your response to the question by krazykev below.

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    i enjoy the site – but could you’re initiation of subscription fees for a trading system that thrives on bear market volatility be analogous to the reciprocal of blackstone going public at the top?

    mostly being cute – keep up the tremendous work.

  • OldBlue

    Great chart, great trade. Congratulations.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Not alot of talk about the spy june 65 puts. Seems that alot of people did not get into those when Mole gave the all clear. We are at 2.83 and we are know where near the bottom.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    CLEAN CUPS!!

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Glad you got you some of those…

    Skål!

  • BigSteve

    Interesting article on CNN about why we make bad decisions.

    http://tinyurl.com/9krqf7

  • jacksoo

    went June 90s last week

  • Tronchaser

    I took down 17 puts (about 2500 bucks worth)…. they are up quite nicely right now. I can't complain at all, and it fits in with my utterly negative doomsday mentality. :)

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Howdy Berk.

    We haven't conversed much at all as I recall, but I have appreciated your work done here at ES.
    I hope all is well, or <laughing> at least recoverable, which, at our household, is how we measure some situations.
    Kids.
    Life.
    Stupid stuff.
    Whatchagonnado?
    (Peanut Gallery shouts : “The best you can!”)

    I see that it's been a week since you've posted in DIsqus.
    I hope to see you around and to reiterate that your work is good.

    I wish you well.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Howdy Berk.

    We haven't conversed much at all as I recall, but I have appreciated your work done here at ES.
    I hope all is well, or <laughing> at least recoverable, which, at our household, is how we measure some situations.
    Kids.
    Life.
    Stupid stuff.
    Whatchagonnado?
    (Peanut Gallery shouts : “The best you can!”)

    I see that it's been a week since you've posted in Disqus.
    I hope to see you around and to reiterate that your work is good.

    I wish you a good life.