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Turning Points
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Turning Points

by The MoleFebruary 24, 2009

I’m going to be really quick tonight – was not actually planning on posting but when I was starting to count the new waves I felt that my new analysis needed to be shared.

Blue: We completed Minor 3 of Intermediate (5) and are now pushing into Minor 4 which should terminate around 793ish. We must not breach 804.3 as a brach of Minor wave 1 is not permissible EWT – at least not if this is a motive wave. If it is not a motive wave but some complicated W-X-Y, then the entire count changes. There is a problem with this count in that Minor 3 would be shorter than minor 1, which is permissible but only if Minor 5 will be the shortest wave. Thus the lower target for the bottom of Intermediate (5) in this scenario would be the 690 – 700 zone. Not exactly exciting IMO. There is the possibility that (4) might turn into some sideways action – perhaps a triangle – that would extend the target zone for 5 of (5) a bit.

Orange: My favorite scenario. We completed Minute (iii) of Minor 3 of Intermediate (5) and are now in the late stage of some ugly wave (iv) zigzag that should either drop right away or maybe push a bit further but not beyond 793 – ugly because I’m not sure I see a clean zigzag there. From there we continue into (v), breach the November 21 lows and complete Minor 3 of (5). This will be followed by a retest of the November lows and the final descend into the target zone of 650.

Tomorrow will be key in determining where we are and also what the downside potential for this will be. Depending on the open be ready to cut your long positions. If we gap higher then there is a good chance that we are already in Minor 4 – if we hang around and then start dropping or drop right away then we are completing Minor 3.

There’s three ways to play this: If you think we are in 4 then start loading up on puts around the fib zone I highlighted (790). Or you can start right away and keep adding as we rally. Finally, if you are convinced that we are completing Minor 3 then you can either load up here or wait for the top of Minor 4, which I expect to be a retest of the November 21 lows.

That’s all I got for tonight – short and sweet! See you on the other side – happy hunting.

Cheers!

UPDATE 11:29pm EST: Okay, I’m reading through the comment stream and most of what I’m seeing is complete trash. A lot of talk and no substance – political mud slinging (ugh), empty comments, dumb jokes, etc. Now you guys know I can shoot the shit as well as any of us, but this is EvilSpeculator and I have reached my platitude limit. When I get up tomorrow morning I want to see the following:

  • Symbols
  • Charts
  • Ideas on how to profit!
  • Originality

Now you guys can either go off pouting or you can get your act together and participate. Everyone else gets kicked into the hole Sparta style. We are in the last vestiges of Primary 1 – after that we are facing a long drawn out and possibly sideways Primary 2, which will last months. It won’t be fun to trade and if you hate whipsaw days you better bring a helmet.

Now watch my bear dance:


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good stuff Mole.I feel you got all the counts down.We wait for the market to tip its hand.

  • molecool

    Thanks Mr. Big – I try. There are other possibilities but these are the high probability ones.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems like Obama is optimistic during his speech but Turbo Tax Tim doesn't seem that excited. I think he is short ES

  • katzo7

    LOL
    BigHouse, you must be careful around heavy equipment:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3G4XRXwcTs&feature=related

  • katzo7

    Yeah, I agree with Mr. BigHouse. Good stuff.
    Thanks for your analysis and spend some time with Ms. Mole now.

  • Osso

    Excelent EW count alternatives.!!!! Would add the following: 944 – 804 was the descending triangle breach….allowing 140 pts down from 804…which means 664 is in the cards.
    One count or the other..we will go there minimum. Guess wave iii might take us there…..and finally wave v down of 5 .. to re test or lower than 664….. depending if it truncates or not. Tks for your great input. !!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Keep an eye on Turbo Tax Tim and other peoples body language.They have showed Tim 2 times already. Guy looks worried.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Think Turbo Tax Tim is short on solutions

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Orange is my preferred scenario as well – your work is much appreciated.

  • katzo7

    Unrelated to stocks but nevertheless funny. Stocks can be funny also. Look at the bank and auto stocks.
    This is for BigHouse:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3G4XRXwcTs&feat

    Enjoy all you sexist pigs (of which I am also one) LOL

  • alphahorn

    The gall of these people, Pelosi the first to stand and clap regarding the abolition of private jets for private enterprise, herself flies home to california every week on tax payer dollars on a private plane. pathetic hypocrites.

    Vote Libertarian

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I just can't bear another freakin' speech – I find I'm tuning him out – he's so overexposed and the lack of detail after so many speeches is incredibly annoying

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    benz invented the auto – a german.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Update on overnight trading..For those at a nudie bar or in a cave

    http://screencast.com/t/zHQPdPwj

  • KevieKev1

    When does he start walking on water?

  • alphahorn

    i'm tuning out to, he's becoming white noise

  • jigdaddy

    did you hold your FAS?

  • KevieKev1

    I sold at EOD.

  • perspective

    stop regurgitating the same line. this isn't 8th grade.

    and everyone knows he only does that in private.

  • HardTimes

    Yeah, screw those darn people working in private enterprise. You know, the ones that create the wealth so taxes can be paid?

  • jigdaddy

    so basically this 1T package is designed to solve every single problem known to the U.S; from spurring lending, infrastructur; alternative energy; education; healthcare and whatever the else he’s talking about….garbagio…

    damn good speaker though, he hasn’t looked down once…..this puppet has better speech then the last..

  • Studio 89

    Thanks Mole

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Hey katzo,

    I drove one of these for a while in '08.

    TOO MUCH FUN!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYN-fOclKPc

  • Jammer63021

    Great chart and analysis. I was wondering how the market would screw everybody, and my best guess for a few weeks was that we would overshoot 741 by about 5% and then rally big and hard. In DOW theory that would not be that uncommon. Too many people expect we are going to 600-650. The market will find a way to screw everybody and this is one way how. Thanks again for all you do Mole.

  • jigdaddy

    booyah…good work..

  • katzo7

    He is going to fix the country, balance the budget, make the banks whole, educate our young.
    Now what do you want to bet that all this magically comes to fruition like in the third year of him being in office? Timing is everything.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    LOL!!!!

  • katzo7

    LOL, was that you driving the truck? LOL

  • alphahorn

    Mole what's your rationale for a top end of 793?

  • alphahorn

    Protectionism always works, NOT

  • alphahorn

    his cabinet is clapping they know they'll just not pay taxes

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    updated my chart

    http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/

    comment and critics are welcome.

  • katzo7

    Hey guys, made a mistake and posted same one as below. But here is the one men will love. Sorry. It really did something for me.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FC2etWHT2jE

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Nancy P..How many times has she stood up? lol

  • TomOfTheNorth

    naw, didn't break anything – truck I drove was actually a bit bigger though – 240 tons – like driving a small 2 story house from an upstairs closet

  • Leon

    Mole, I am not very familiar with EW theory, but just wondering if there is any chance we are still in intermediate wave 4 and there is a chance we rally over 944 before eventually heading to the 650 area?

    The main reason I ask is because during this move down from 944 numerous sectors have not made new lows even as the s&p has approached the November lows, such as lots of names in technology, retail, homebuilders, insurance companies, etc.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    lol your nuts

  • katzo7

    Yeah, don't tell anyone though.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Obama talks about no more torcher. Has he traded a 4th wave?

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Brilliantly puts Bernanke’s testimony in perspective –

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/02/the-big-if.html

    ***DO NOT READ IF ALREADY CLINICALLY DEPRESSED!

    lol

  • Fujisan

    OMG, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY keep going up non stop!! I have never seen anything like this!

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    whatever you think about his politics – it’s an enormous improvement from who we had.

    i feel like this board is cynical all the time 24/7. that’s not reality and it doesn’t get the job done.

    he may fail – but you better be damn sure he will try his pants off. that’s more than many of us can say.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    LOL! Good one alpha

  • yazzer

    LOL – +1 for the article!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Don't think so Leon b/c the dow ,oex and transports went below the Nov lows.

  • yazzer

    agreed – but hopefully he will get past the talking heads in Washington and pull this band-aid off hair and all – otherwise he's doomed for failure. Nationalize the banks and clean 'em up for starters…the only way out so, pay me now or pay me much more later…

  • StainlessSteelChicken

    Nice work as always. Glad I scooped up FAZ @ $56 today. Blue scenario lines up nicely with my count but I'm hoping for orange.

  • Leon

    “trying” by having the same people who created the problems and don't understand the fundamental issues try to fix things is failing, period. and being better than one of the worst presidents ever is nothing to be happy about. the reason so many are cynical here is because the govt has continued to ignore the fundamental problems of too much debt in the economy.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    That's not just a big “if.” That's a giant, honking, humongous, get-down-on-your-knees-and-pray-for-salvation “if.”

    Just awesome…

  • jigdaddy

    LMAO!!!

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    “I’m shortin’ it right now!”

    NYSE floor trader on CNBC immediately after the President’s speech

    LOL!

  • alphahorn

    only exercise she gets

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Hey perspective,

    Two points: I voted for Obama and failure is not an option –

    personally, I could do with fewer speaking engagements (maybe cut them down to every other day) or, if they’re absolutely necessary, at least some variety as to content

  • alphahorn

    nothing more intellectually stimulating than spanish speaking tv

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    For people in the bars E mini's

    http://screencast.com/t/9ETxqTAMIt

  • anotherone

    Couldn't disagree more. The results will speak for themselves.

  • moneyfarm

    Hah – good one!

  • perspective

    get off your fucking soap box and deal with reality. the economy isn't a maserati or even a ford. it's just wheels with momentum. my idealistic self would agree with you about your bullet points. the practical side knows the ron paul way would work about as well as giving the keys to larry kudlow. they are both extremes with little practical solution once we are in the crisis.

    he appears earnest and he's probably the closest thing we have had to an intellectual in the office in quite some time. i don't know about you, but i would prefer intellect than bravado and certainly pragmatism verses idealism.

    enough with the cynicism – it's shooting fish in a barrel at this point. he's been in office 3 weeks. talk to me in three years. the guy on cnbc that said after the speech that he could of wrote that sums up the arm chair quarterbacking that gets us nowhere and frankly is just bullshit.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Nice chart

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    jesus – first people complain that bush didn’t speak enough. now we hear this guy speaks too much.

    perhaps “bobby” jindal would be a better fit for you.

  • jigdaddy

    anyone know how i can sync my ES quote on TOS and prophet streaming chart, i went to set up and switched to real time. it didn't seem to work…TOS ES quote is 767 while prophet streaming is 764.50…its annoying the hell out of me. thanks guys have a great night..

  • Molave Street Dwende

    Had exactly same thoughts yesterday – small SPX breach below 740, everyone thinks we're safe, and then a rocket to 800 followed by move to ~650. However, as Mole says, the DOW breaking the 2002 low is a very bad sign for bulls.

  • moneyfarm

    Was thinking the same – believe it is 38.2% fib retrace (approx) from 2/9 high?

  • alphahorn

    i think a lot of us will share his sentiment

  • alphahorn

    Katzo how did you end up trading the market today? did you stay bearish?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Why'd you have to go and drag Jesus into this?

  • perspective

    and that pretty much sums up my disdain for those parts of the human psyche. completely binary – no heart. “i could have written that”.

    yeah, you are a real wordsmith.

    why do i even care?

  • Leon

    he's had a lot more than 3 weeks to prepare for this, he's been planning his presidency for years. and again, being somewhat better than a lot of complete morons is nothing to write home about. he was also a US senator for several years and said next to nothing about the inherent dangers in our financial system and therefore does not deserve to represent anyone in this country. he may “appear” to be earnest and giving his best effort, but that doesn't make him qualified for the job and isn't gonna solve the problems.

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    they are interchangeable – per kevie-kev.

  • alphahorn

    you've been on the wrong side of the market ever since you started showing up around here, surprised you have enough money left to trade

  • LoneRanger

    Anyone trade the Yen? Nice double top and a head and shoulders break. Looks like a great short. Thoughts?

  • Leon

    ok thank you. just curious of the possibility of such a move occurring. it seems that EW theory has done very well in tracking the market since the bear began in Oct 07, so just contemplating perhaps the market taking a different turn and ignoring EW for a while and acting completely irrational long enough to make even the smartest bears insolvent.

  • perspective

    are you sure you want to measure alphahorn.

    you know what they say about guys that incorporate alpha into their name…

    trying to compensate for something?

  • Enfinity

    Please alphahorn, I'd like him to keep posting his thoughts.

    🙂

  • alphahorn

    any place any time

  • DrMalaka

    Thanks for the laugh. Speech #68 of Feb rocked!!!!

  • BalaB

    Yeah, T. W., Nice Chart.

  • Jammer63021

    Point up.

  • Jammer63021

    Oh that was uncalled for man.

  • http://implicittrading.com Implicit Trader

    Thanks Mole. Awesome.
    While planning my trades for both a long and short situation, I fell(ed?) prey to over analyzing the charts.
    Your posts are grounding for an ever evolving learning curve. Falling down the rabbit hole indeed. It is absolutely fascinating how many different ways there is to make money in markets.

  • Jammer63021

    Guys, lets keep it civil.

  • DrMalaka

    Get a grip. The people on this board have no faith in government because we are not been blinded by partisan bickering. We understand that Obama got us into this mess, just as Bush did, just as Clinton did and just as the American public did. He is part of the system, he is the system, career politician, no real job ever, another lawyer, bought by special interests, and his solution is the same garbage that got us here. His appointments all have responsibility for this (Tim Geithner!).

    We are here to trade and make profits. We are annoyed by this continued government intervention which will not work. We just want to have an honest market place where we can ply our trade. Being a partisan gets in your way.

    Support Obama all you wants, but look at the tape. ES tanked after his speech because he said nothing and has no solutions other than spend our money and put us further in debt. The market is not stupid. The market knows where it is going. The market does not care how inspirational Obama is to you. If you would like you are welcome to jump on the slide with the rest of us, its going to be a fun ride down.

  • GeoMay22

    I've been short the yen (via /6J) all day. It needed to break the 95.50 resistance on the USD/JPY today to confirm my target of 100. I can't see any reason why the yen wouldn't continue to fall from here… anyone else?

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    That means we go down tomorrow. EUR/USD going down too. EUR/USD leads US markets. I am still short usd/jpy. will short more at 98.35

  • v8muscle

    I'm VERY VERY tempted to purchase some FAZ $150 calls at this point. with any kind of downside those will probably triple or quadruple in a day

  • JohnyWalker

    Thank you Mole. Great analysis.

  • Fujisan

    I see MACD and price movement negative divergence in GBP/JPY, but I don't see it in USD/JPY, but I woulnd't be surprised to see a pullback here as they are totally overbought.

  • hindawg

    How's this for inspiration- Sol(xtrend) is short 150 ES from 5700. I'd be crapping my pants, but I think he's right- for about a half million.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Lets not major in minor things. Speech is over. We had our fun.Lets not get personal. Lets focus on the charts. Mole has the best count on deck. If overnight charts continue down… its straight to the low 700 spx in the coming days. Its' not a time to f around.

  • etechpartner

    Sounds like fun. Sort of a lottery ticket approach.

  • GMunni

    I shorted CAD.JPY tonight with a small position. Make of it what you will but looks like a descending triangle to me with an E wave overthrow. Should resolve to new lows.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wave 5 tug is strong.i can feel it.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mole has the best count.Stick around.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • rhae

    I did not watch the speech, just the Asian charts and futures… Apparently, he said nothing to move the markets.

    SPY daily ended the day, an Inside Day… about like a doji… it give no tell…. Mole correct, tomorrow more important

  • roncofooddehydrator

    +1 Good call.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    saw this as well, great site – stayed short today (covered a third on yesterday's close), was tough but even more optiimistic might pay off…..

  • Vic

    Failure is always an option 🙂

  • alphahorn

    +10

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    ok mole, here is mine SPX cash chart.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/33082

  • alphahorn

    My view of the market for tomorrow. We finished the day very overbought and we will likely pull back in the morning, which will complete the right shoulder on the inverted H&S that Erik was first to recognize yesterday (go figure). Anyway, bears need to be very careful the next couple of days because we've reached the magical .8 CPC ratio. For whatever reason people always want to read BEAR into this figure, which is incorrect AT FIRST!. We will likely have a green day tomorrow (possibly even huge) and maybe even thursday, before we gap down huge on Fri or Mon. I will be trading my channel, depending on how explosive the finish is tomorrow I might scale back some more. I moved from 30% cash to 50% cash at the close, but will add longs at around 760 as the SPX completes the right shoulder. I view the channel differently from most, rather than drawing it from Feb high, I see it as one continuous channel from Jan high, which opens up more upside before we plunge.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    cheers!

  • Chop it up

    Bullshit – the reality is that he has appointed the same pricks that got us into the mess we are supposed to be working our way out of. That makes him a FAIL.
    A great orator – which is what we need. A confident leader – which is what we need. But he has surrounded himself with the same losers. So its a Fucking FAIL.
    Its disappointing – but its only disappointing if you were stupid enough (like me) to think maybe…..just maybe – it could be different.
    3 weeks or 3 years makes no difference – everything rises and falls on leadership. Pricks like Tim and Summers and Ben ARE the problem – and there are his chosen leaders. SAME SHIT Different President. And that is NOT a political statement – its one of disgust

  • Keirsten

    Chart idea depending on the general direction of the market and specifically this stock. BIDU Trade at your own risk always remembering we’re in whipsaw city.

    Sloppy inverted H&S, but one person’s sloppy is another one’s nirvana. Closed over support, so that’s where I’d also set my stop if I were conservative, let it break over next resistance @ 144.91 due to high swinging capability anyway, and potential target of 176.35.. and it has a nice possible gap fill above right in that same range.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p87124639092

  • ISLDGUY

    Okay, Mole

    Is GOOG screaming short? I think so. You?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/isldguy/folders

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Ok, I'm not good enough with the technical aspect, so I thought I'd just throw out some historical perspectives. As we all know, history is no way to measure future performance, but I figured it would be fun to look at even if it ends up being useless.

    I put together a spreadsheet of all the open/closes of the S&P back to 1950 and examined it for consecutive days down/up as well as how much was lost/gained in those days.

    Here's our current situation:
    We've had one up day after 6 down days where the S&P lost a total of 13%.

    Of the 65 other times where the S&P has closed down 6 days in a row:
    33% of the time it closes up for only one day before closing down again
    33% of the time it closes up for two days in a row before closing down again
    9% 3 days up in a row
    6% 4 days up in a row
    8% 5 days up in a row
    3% 6 days up in a row
    5% 7 days up in a row
    1.5% 8 days up in a row
    1.5% 9 days up

    I took a look at magnitude of the run as well, and you'll be glad to know this was the largest drop ever for a run that lastest exactly 6 days. It's the second largest drop for any run on the S&P, with the largest being the drop back in October which caused a loss of 18.5% over 8 days.

    If you take into account magnitude, the only other 6 day drop this can compare to is back in September of 1986 there was a 6 day drop where the S&P lost 10.2%. It was preceded by a 2 day gain (just like this run) and was followed by a 1 day gain then 2 days of losses. It should be noted that this previous instance was right around a temporary bottom for the S&P until the crash in October 1987 when there was a drop of 40% over 4 days.

  • molecool

    This is a good start – thanks.

  • Keirsten

    Hey Isld, nice chart BTW 🙂 …. I would wait for it to breakdown through the 50 below (also close enough to a former swing low support,) otherwise it's trying to build that little uptrend as seen with higher highs/higher lows since Nov., might want to test the upper BB on a run.

  • Flatlander

    Nice data mining. Thanks for sharing.

  • joe8888

    As we all know, or should know…. As goes the Financial s and Transports, Goes the Markets.

    So lets take a look….

    $bkx (bank index..Looks like it my be putting inn a bearish backtest of the under belly of the January lows ($25.33 ish).Witch could be followed by a Big selloff..

    $TRAN… Dow Transports,are putting inn the same bearish pattern,so inn short, this rally could be shortlived.. lol

    If we can not regain those resistance level, it's Hammer Time.!!

  • finalbull

    i have bidu from before the earning, and already kicking me

  • phoc mi

    howee macarollllll…market go up fast…too fast up but pants to fast down and market ram big stick up bum. Why go up and not down like jackass mole say?

  • Keirsten

    Possibly if it shows price action as described, and only for nimble traders, as BIDU can be a whipsaw in the calmest of trading days and it can smack you around pretty darned good. G/L

  • radist

    I think she does think it's a good long, finalbull. Nice chart to bring to our attention.

  • ejw060412

    FAST good short to load up on

  • http://bryanttran.blogspot.com/ tranbryant

    Waiting to see tomorrow's action then I will consider FAZ once the SPY hits 780-790 and then we will watch the wash out begin. Either tomorrow or Thursday's action.

    I'm enjoying the blue scenario as it will get people more bullish and the bears will wipe that smirk off their face with a nice bear swipe to the face. Orange would be ideal also =)

  • WP

    Some shorting opportunities.

    FSYS @ about $22
    MDRX @ about $10
    PALM @ current price, watch the break @ $7.32

    Plz give some thoughts on this….

  • El gAto

    Was short FSYS from 25….but covered today. Looking to reload now that FSLR bombed. Numbers out next week.

    PALM looks good…..stop over yesterdays high……momo crowd can get wild.

  • standard_and_poor
  • standard_and_poor

    Now that's what I'm talking about ! +100 (you realize thses are points, I can't really pay you one
    hundred bucks).

  • dust13

    looking to short APOL COCO lets not forget how well STRA fell apart

  • Dragonsbane

    Would take profit before 100. 100 will be a massive level in terms of options barriers.

  • jaxon

    if we check out fibs from higher degree W4 on 11/4 to bottom of this 3 (as in EW alternates @ different degrees) we find that the next fib up is 23.6% @ 792.06. that is the last stop before we violate Minor W1. i began loading up on puts @ 770 and will continue to load up. this is an easy trade if we get up to 790. set your stop just above the base of Minor W1.

  • peterey

    A fresh look at EW

    The link below is my SPX EW count on a monthly scale.

    It challenges the view of the majority of EW doers, but it derives simply from watching and reasoning on the chart, trying to keep aside pre-conceived preferences (to the extent possible).

    Any comments are welcome.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/V39Z63te

  • peterey

    Mole,

    May I ask your comments on my SPX EW count?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/V39Z63te

  • HardTimes

    Wow. That WOULD screw the most people!!

  • katzo7

    Yeeaaah.

  • peterey

    BigHouse,

    May I ask your comments on my SPX EW count?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/V39Z63te

  • katzo7

    IMO, EW2 should be found in May and the prediction does not look right for the ending counts. The double bottom could be broken meaning it could go straight down from here not go up again but down from here. Your blue marked A would be marked EW4, but you have a point, this 4 looks very out of proportion to me (short). In this market downturn, I have noticed that the EW4s have been weird all along. There are more on this board that are better experts than me.

    Follow and learn form Mole's chart.

  • katzo7

    http://www.agetblog.com/tradingtechniques/2009/
    I am not sure I would use the word screaming as the chart on this site is a weekly so goog may take its time to set up this fall.

  • katzo7

    Possibility of a failed rally attempt based on the steepness of this run up? Go back and look at Jan. 15th, some parallels?

  • katzo7

    LOL

  • katzo7

    Timing is everything. If you hit it right, great.

  • katzo7

    Ohhhh yeah.

  • yazzer

    The DOW has only had 3 days up in a row…I think we're back to randomness now…my guess for today is slightly upward…sideways this week then a resumption of the downward slide next week – this market is unlike any other since the data ron is using (only back to 1950)…be careful…

  • katzo7

    I respectfully disagree. He said something, he said that we are going into a WPA type era. Now, what does that really mean, AND IT IS SCARING THE HELL OUT OF ME.

    So I am busting you here a bit Doc, and you are correct, he really did say nothing.

  • yazzer

    nice chart and while I agree with your last a-b-c pattern, I don't think the C part of the waves get nearly as high a bounce, no? I'd be urprised to see a rise above 800 and veru surprised at one over 815…

  • jaxon

    this leg down looks impulsive not corrective. the correction from the primary wave seems to have taken place and we are going down. the next few days should clarify things.

  • katzo7

    Didn't the gov. get us into this (lax mortgage oversite)?

  • katzo7

    Oh you can be assured the economy will be “fixed” in exactly three years, just in time for the next Pres. election. Funny how that all works out. Perspective I agree with alot of what you say but you have to admit, this is all rigged.

  • katzo7

    +1

  • katzo7

    +1

  • katzo7

    NIce TW. Forget the job and trade. LOL

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    lol. Sure I shorted NQ @ 1164.75 and covered at 1153.50

    Shorted again this morning @ 1158.75

  • katzo7

    Yeah, 40 each APR spy puts, 70 and 72s I bought right at top yesterday. Still have faz, tza, srs in my IRA and will hold.

    Looks like down city today. The 2 up day and short rule is in effect except we only get about 1 1/4 up days (even less this time). I think we are headed for the final EW5 down, ALL EW4 moves on the MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES I watch have not reached their targets.

  • Douala

    +1

    Thanks for the TA breakdown on BIDU. Very helpful to me. Will look into a small position.

  • denali92

    GREAT information. THANKS! I like the scenario of a fake-out re-test similar to what we had in January – that would be consistent with the 33% down the next day. SPY does not make new low – MDY does.

  • katzo7

    FSLR down 22 points? What happened?

  • optionstrader

    Mole, have you checked this site?. Right on the money most of the times http://thinkingtrades.com. No charts but good analysis.

  • Susannah

    Lots of downgrades – the analysts were saying their payments were taking longer to come in – installers might be having issues paying. Their business was strong, though. Good company, but I guess their P/E needs to come down a bit.

    Funny it happens right after Obama speaks and put so much emphasis on energy.

  • katzo7

    Yeah, hope no one was long that one. A good haircut. Thanks Susannah. Shows follow of going long in a bear market. I see they are also funding some instillations of their stuff. S7P keeps buy and Kaufman downgrades.

  • alphahorn

    Good morning all, I'm going to play contrarian again today, but I think after a morning pullback we go green and possibly large. If you want a parallel to today look at 11/24, the CPC reached .8 yesterday and 70% of the time that means the next day will finish green (see Pan's chart below) and there is sizeable upsside ahead, then dramatic downside in 2-4 days. I wrote about this back around the 2/6 to an unsympathetic audience, oh well. I can't wait for the trip to the abyss as much as anyone, but I don't see that trip beginning today.

    http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SaS6WtT3hVI/A

  • NumbersGame

    Jives w/ McHugh's call for a ST bottom here, w/ confirm DJI over 7500.

  • WP

    Can someone maybe advice me through whom I can trade futures (single stock futures), currently I am with TOS but they don't offer future trading in individual stocks…?
    Thanks

  • alphahorn

    No, more like jan 21

  • katzo7

    Yeah, saw that too.

  • alphahorn

    we'll see, like i said we pull back in the morning, but once the SPY reaches 76 i'm adding, I sold 30k of my FAS at the close for a huge profit, still own 20K, also sold some of my BGU at the close but still own 10K as well with SSO still own 10K and once we uptick from 76 i'll start adding on the way up, if I'm wrong I'll be stopped out still at huge profits from my purchases on Moday

  • optionstrader

    optionsxpress has them

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Hey WP,

    Before you venturre into SSF, check liquidity. At one point there WERE two exchanges launched to offer SSF following regulatory approval of the product type: NASDAQ-LIFFE (NQLX) a joint venture between NAS & London Intl Financial Futures Ex and One Chicago (ONE) a joint venture between CBT, CME & CBOE. NQLX folded a few years ago due to low volume. ONE has hung in there but volume is still light – 5008 contracts yesterday according to their website. I would suspect that you would probably be better off trading ITM options – similar correlation but much greater liquidity. I'm unaware of other markets offering liquid SSFs.

  • WP

    Never thought of ITM options. Thank and will give them a try.

  • de3600

    Fslr getting destroyed premarket

  • ISLDGUY

    Thanks, Keirsten

    Your insights are appreciated.

    Mark

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Hit my stop on NQ

    Shorted /NQ @ 1165

  • J-So

    I posted this in the last post near the end of the day. I will repost it cuz you said you wanted “Symbols, charts, ideas on how to profit and originality”. Well I believe this has it all.

    I am playing the channel that mole posted earlier today labeled “Channels within Channels”. It seems to me that we closed at the top of the channel. The stochs on the VIX turned up shortly before the close. The stochs on several time frames of the SPX began to turn down. This also played out with the extended wave 3 where we just ended subwave 8 and will begin subwave 9 either with a gap down or shortly after the open tomorrow with a reversal. It sounds confusing, I am sure, but you can see it clearly here.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

    The beauty of this is that if I am wrong, which will not be the first time, we will find out in relatively short order as we are parked right on the upper trend line. So any significant upward action will cause me to seek a new scenario.

  • ciel007

    S&P, thanks for a great chart! C

  • The M

    When TOS does not offer something (& has no plans to offer it) I would re-think my trading plan carefully. In my observations TOS really trys to save us from ourselves in a lot of instances. These guys know alot more than most of us ever will & they have some very good, solid reasons why they don't offer things. Just imo.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I realized I didn't actually answer your question. Most FCMs use one of two dominant back-office processing systems: Sungard-GMI or Rolfe & Nolan (recently bought by ION). These are the backbone bookkeeping systems for the majority of FCMs that run their own books. Both systems are capable of handling processing, settlement, reporting, etc. of SSFs traded at ONE. Therefore most Clearing FCMs should offer SSFs thru ONE. Non-Clearing (Disclosed) FCMs & IBs typically clear thru an FCM that uses one of these systems, so they most likely offer SSFs as well. That TOS does not offer SSF suggests they use a bookkeeping package other than the 2 mentioned, perhaps proprietary, although I don't actually know.

    Cheers

  • anotherone

    My EWT is weak, but I'm playing the same channel and bought more SPY puts EOD yesterday.

  • rhae

    I am still watching ErikD Inverse H&S pattern SPY… It seems to have morphed some after yesterdays price action…

    To a cup & handle… it is pre market so the handle is not yet properly formed…. wouldn't the Bulls just luv a brim breakout… low volume is the key and put a little channel on the handle… Volume will spike on a true break out…

    I will follow it until it resolves or blows up…

    http://screencast.com/t/o7XCVAWt8f

  • alphahorn

    I still see an inverted H&S and once the SPY hits 76 – 76.25 and upticks i'm adding to longs

  • Douala

    Thanks J-So for taking the time to make the chart. +1

  • J-So

    I did not make the chart. Kenny did. He has many excellent charts. Use the pull down menu on the upper right to peruse them. Check out his VIX chart. you will see the VIX actually closed on a strong line of support and is turning up this morning.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

  • katzo7

    Shorted BIDU @ 147.50

  • standard_and_poor

    Shorting market.

  • alphahorn

    Long ERX @ 25.02

  • standard_and_poor

    shoting the hell out of mkt

  • katzo7

    I agree, we will be going to the poor house together. LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Feels great to be big fat angry bear again.

  • katzo7

    IMO, two day up and short rule has turned into one day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Karhu

    Murrrr. Added 1100 FAZ @ 58,24

  • rose2797

    Site is not showing latest comments again

  • standard_and_poor

    But with big bear claws to protect ass. LOL

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We need the market to go straight down.The gap this morning in spx should not be filled .

  • katzo7

    Whhooooaaaaaa,
    SPY puts Apr 70&72 ON FIRE.
    Time for Rammstein?

  • Erikd

    sold all long positions and taken 1/2 short position so far..

  • katzo7

    Yes, time for smoke break.

  • Vendrell

    Not sure if you're using an EW count, but if we fill the gap, then does that mean we're likely in wave 4 of 5, and that 3 of 5 was truncated? That would then mean wave 5 was truncated…and we likely only go to 690ish, right?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Enjoying my /NQ short from 1165

  • jigdaddy

    if we break thru 7.70 strongly, i would think there is a long ride down correct? on my chart i'm seeing some strong resistance at this level. TIA..

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Prechter on Bloomberg @ 5PM ET

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    No.When Erik goes short it means smoke break is over.

  • katzo7

    MACD crossing on BIDU on 5 and 10 min. timeframe.
    Awaiting 20 min. cross
    Thanks Keirsten for pointing this one out.
    Looking at charts looked ripe for the pickings, but waited to see how market opened.

  • standard_and_poor

    Bank of america puts rule!

  • chronictown

    eric, what is yourtarget now for xlf? thanks in advance!

  • alphahorn

    starting to add to selective long positions SSO first

  • katzo7

    Alpha, hope you are okay.
    I bought 300 BIDU short, made a mistake with one computer put in an order and it froze only to find out it went through.

  • BalaB

    Hey Katzo. I notice you're a big fan of the 20Min MACD cross over. Out of curiosity, what is the “win” percentage of this strat?

    Thanks Man

  • Erikd

    4.00-6.00 within 2-3 weeks

  • slartybardfast

    But it gets to business time when he starts to speak in ALL CAPS.

  • katzo7

    No, I look at all timeframes on a stock or the market to see how it is setting up.

    Percentage? Was never good in math.
    LOL

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I say today because I am short LOL

  • BalaB

    LOL. Thx

  • stxinon

    long FDX (SL 43.79) this week's low.
    It is amusing that $TRAN is down nearly 3.5 % + ……

    So much order in the air looks like a BEAR TRAP…..
    FDX is my way of testing it…. (kind of 1 hour early than rest of the market….)

    Once a while I am amused….
    Do traders have a Darwinian Extinction problem when society goes in dark ages……..
    and then what do traders do in such cases…… ?

  • katzo7

    Contact me katzo368 (at) gmail
    Do not have much time today

  • Smeagol

    So no more bullish counter-trend these days?

  • Erikd

    SHORT WITH EVERY PENNY YOU HAVE….

  • alphahorn

    I'll be fine, have had 5 six figure days in a row, unfortunately Monday's was negative (LOL), but more than made up for it yesterday.

    Added 2nd wave of longs at SPY 76

  • J-So

    I believe my scenario I posted last night and re-posted this morning is correct. We will touch the bottom of the channel by the end of the week. It should end somewhere beneath 700 SPX. Possibly 690. This should complete wave 3 and we will get a sizeable bounce to around 800 on SPX. I do not think we will fill the gap from last week Tuesday until we make a wave 5 bottom as low as 450 on SPX.

  • chronictown

    wow, I love your work on th,e xlf charts. Can you post one when you get time. Thanks, town of chronic

  • slartybardfast

    Now thats what I'm talking about! 😉

  • Mr. L

    Ah, but bounced on the 61.8 from 741.02, let's see how far this goes

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Russell 2k is the weakest major index today. Been in and out of TWM twice here and looking to reload again w larger, <87 at this point, but would chase if this gets uberbloody.
    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

  • katzo7

    IMO, you are going against the grain. I do same, get something stuck in my mind.
    Hope you are right and I am wrong for you
    AND
    I am right and you are wrong for me.

  • chronictown

    Erik,what do you use to short this pig?

  • jigdaddy

    Thanks Erik!!

    ________________________________

  • alphahorn

    stopped out of ERX will add if it confirms rt. shoulder of inv. H&S

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Hey thanks for sharing your experience of Futures trading. I started trading yesterday night and so far so good. I am keep changing my stops and not being greedy or crazy.

    Thanks.

  • katzo7

    I thought it referred t the BULLS asses were about to get rammed.

  • katzo7

    Hey, get a gmail acct and we can google chat real time.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NEW POST

  • Grtded

    Erik, what do u use for shorting XLF?

    Thanx

  • alphahorn

    So far have added to SSO at 18.32 and 18.45, and FAS at 4.95, 4.96 and 4.98

  • molecool

    Yes – I actually just warned people about this possibility.

  • jaxon

    spx sub minuette W5 on it's way after sideways correxion (following clean wave2) ?

  • El gAto

    CELG lagging in recent days. Directional stochastics pointing lower. I know 'old school' charting!

    http://screencast.com/t/lRiXFZtI

    http://screencast.com/t/rguDyagIWy

  • standard_and_poor

    Target of 755 spx for today was met, see roadmap for details.

  • rose2797

    There is something wrong with the site. It does not show the lateest comments.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Rock on T!

  • Erikd

    I always SPY front month, a nice speculative play would be to buy – march FAZ calls ATM and hold them the next 2 weeks,
    $8,000 invested NOW would be over $100,000 within 3 weeks… over 3 1/2 turns on your money….
    THIS WILL BE THE TRADE OF THE YEAR SO FAR…. buy FAZ march calls ATM 60 or 65 strike…
    this is a speculative play… up to 100 contracts is ok….

  • standard_and_poor

    Planning to close out ES daytrades on any further pullbacks.

  • rhae

    You were correct about the H&S…. will it break the right shoulder?
    My daily 10 day breath charts are still very oversold… I am biased up or sideways for now… a week or so

  • molecool

    Today? Again?

  • molecool

    I tried front month last time and it took longer than I thought. Got myself Aprils for now – should still pay off nicely 😉

  • rose2797

    Erik what do u think about faz if u think xlf will be 4-6. What will be a good price to enter faz

  • Erikd

    mole if you have anymore loose change… buy the march with it. your money will turn twice by this friday and you can take off your initial investment.. this is the most leveraged way to play this downside…

  • yazzer

    how abt the SKFs???

  • standard_and_poor

    Closing out some ES here.

  • Lori

    there's a new thread…move over there. (see upper right – Turning Points 2.0)

  • arak0

    How is 100K/8K = 3.5 turns on your money? Isn't it more like 12.5 times?

  • reza002

    Erikd, Can you please advise me how to buy options, at what price FAZ and month March, etc. Never bought options before.
    Thanks for your help

  • Vic

    Rats, a bearish butterfly, as pretty as it gets:
    http://screencast.com/t/dQImuQKPsCn -BIDU.

  • Erikd

    8k to 16k one turn, 16k to 32k two turns, 32k to 64k three turns, 64k to 128k 4 turns…..

  • Erikd

    call your broker by phone and tell them to buy march FAZ calls at the 60 strike price, takes 5 minutes max.

  • Erikd

    no. EOW and EOM are here..

  • nugie

    Looks like we might be going back into triangle hell

  • nugie

    Can someone kindly tell me how to send a profit chart in to post on this site????

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Hey WP,

    Before you venturre into SSF, check liquidity. At one point there WERE two exchanges launched to offer SSF following regulatory approval of the product type: NASDAQ-LIFFE (NQLX) a joint venture between NAS & London Intl Financial Futures Ex and One Chicago (ONE) a joint venture between CBT, CME & CBOE. NQLX folded a few years ago due to low volume. ONE has hung in there but volume is still light – 5008 contracts yesterday according to their website. I would suspect that you would probably be better off trading ITM options – similar correlation but much greater liquidity. I'm unaware of other markets offering liquid SSFs.

  • WP

    Never thought of ITM options. Thank and will give them a try.

  • de3600

    Fslr getting destroyed premarket

  • ISLDGUY

    Thanks, Keirsten

    Your insights are appreciated.

    Mark

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Hit my stop on NQ

    Shorted /NQ @ 1165

  • J-So

    I posted this in the last post near the end of the day. I will repost it cuz you said you wanted “Symbols, charts, ideas on how to profit and originality”. Well I believe this has it all.

    I am playing the channel that mole posted earlier today labeled “Channels within Channels”. It seems to me that we closed at the top of the channel. The stochs on the VIX turned up shortly before the close. The stochs on several time frames of the SPX began to turn down. This also played out with the extended wave 3 where we just ended subwave 8 and will begin subwave 9 either with a gap down or shortly after the open tomorrow with a reversal. It sounds confusing, I am sure, but you can see it clearly here.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

    The beauty of this is that if I am wrong, which will not be the first time, we will find out in relatively short order as we are parked right on the upper trend line. So any significant upward action will cause me to seek a new scenario.

  • ciel007

    S&P, thanks for a great chart! C

  • The M

    When TOS does not offer something (& has no plans to offer it) I would re-think my trading plan carefully. In my observations TOS really trys to save us from ourselves in a lot of instances. These guys know alot more than most of us ever will & they have some very good, solid reasons why they don't offer things. Just imo.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    I realized I didn't actually answer your question. Most FCMs use one of two dominant back-office processing systems: Sungard-GMI or Rolfe & Nolan (recently bought by ION). These are the backbone bookkeeping systems for the majority of FCMs that run their own books. Both systems are capable of handling processing, settlement, reporting, etc. of SSFs traded at ONE. Therefore most Clearing FCMs should offer SSFs thru ONE. Non-Clearing (Disclosed) FCMs & IBs typically clear thru an FCM that uses one of these systems, so they most likely offer SSFs as well. That TOS does not offer SSF suggests they use a bookkeeping package other than the 2 mentioned, perhaps proprietary, although I don't actually know.

    Cheers

  • anotherone

    My EWT is weak, but I'm playing the same channel and bought more SPY puts EOD yesterday.

    EDIT: And I see that ES is pretty much staying inside it's channel, as well.

  • rhae

    I am still watching ErikD Inverse H&S pattern SPY… It seems to have morphed some after yesterdays price action…

    To a cup & handle… it is pre market so the handle is not yet properly formed…. wouldn't the Bulls just luv a brim breakout… low volume is the key and put a little channel on the handle… Volume will spike on a true break out…

    I will follow it until it resolves or blows up…

    http://screencast.com/t/o7XCVAWt8f

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Nice H&S on ES 5 min chart.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I still see an inverted H&S and once the SPY hits 76 – 76.25 and upticks i'm adding to longs

  • Vic

    IDCC: http://screencast.com/t/YzUO1Q2vd -near reloading zone.

    How about that FSLR action. I was going to buy calls at noon to speculate on earnings and I forgot… not being on top of things saved me 🙂

  • Douala

    Thanks J-So for taking the time to make the chart. +1

  • J-So

    I did not make the chart. Kenny did. He has many excellent charts. Use the pull down menu on the upper right to peruse them. Check out his VIX chart. you will see the VIX actually closed on a strong line of support and is turning up this morning.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

  • katzo7

    Shorted BIDU @ 147.50
    SL at 148.25

    BIDU labeled its EW4 up on day.
    Stochs and macds rolling over on shorter time frames

  • standard_and_poor

    Shorting market.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Long ERX @ 25.02

  • standard_and_poor

    shoting the hell out of mkt

  • katzo7

    I agree, we will be going to the poor house together. LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Feels great to be big fat angry bear again.

  • katzo7

    IMO, two day up and short rule has turned into one day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Karhu

    Murrrr. Added 1100 FAZ @ 58,24

  • rose2797

    Site is not showing latest comments again

  • standard_and_poor

    But with big bear claws to protect ass. LOL

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We need the market to go straight down.The gap this morning in spx should not be filled .

  • katzo7

    Whhooooaaaaaa,
    SPY puts Apr 70&72 ON FIRE.
    Time for Rammstein?

  • Erikd

    sold all long positions and taken 1/2 short position so far..

  • katzo7

    Yes, time for smoke break.

  • Vendrell

    Not sure if you're using an EW count, but if we fill the gap, then does that mean we're likely in wave 4 of 5, and that 3 of 5 was truncated? That would then mean wave 5 was truncated…and we likely only go to 690ish, right?

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Enjoying my /NQ short from 1165

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    One thing I don't like about TOS are the Marketing Alerts!
    They come out of nowhere

  • jigdaddy

    if we break thru 7.70 strongly, i would think there is a long ride down correct? on my chart i'm seeing some strong resistance at this level. TIA..

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Prechter on Bloomberg @ 5PM ET

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    No.When Erik goes short it means smoke break is over.

  • katzo7

    MACD crossing on BIDU on 5 and 10 min. timeframe.
    Awaiting 20 min. cross
    Thanks Keirsten for pointing this one out.
    Looking at charts looked ripe for the pickings, but waited to see how market opened.
    Will move stops down soon.

  • standard_and_poor

    Bank of america puts rule!

  • chronictown

    eric, what is yourtarget now for xlf? thanks in advance!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    starting to add to selective long positions SSO first

  • katzo7

    Alpha, hope you are okay.
    I bought 300 BIDU short, made a mistake with one computer put in an order and it froze only to find out it went through.

  • the_dark_lord

    Shorting Ideas (Not Mine but I agree with the fundamentals)

    Commercial REITS – They should get annihilated. FRT, BDN, BRE, CPT, HME, NHP, SLG, WRI

    Charts look weak too!

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Hey Katzo. I notice you're a big fan of the 20Min MACD cross over. Out of curiosity, what is the “win” percentage of this strat?

    Thanks Man

  • standard_and_poor

    741.02, either today or morrow.

  • Erikd

    4.00-6.00 within 2-3 weeks

  • slartybardfast

    But it gets to business time when he starts to speak in ALL CAPS.

  • Mr. L

    SPX just busted right through the 61.8 from yesterday and the upwards trendline, and now a little resistance afterward

  • katzo7

    No, I look at all timeframes on a stock or the market to see how it is setting up.
    1,5,10,20, day, week
    Also look at stochs for entry and exit

    Percentage? Was never good in math.
    LOL
    Also do EWs

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    I say today because I am short LOL

  • Erikd

    full short position, biggest short i have ever had in the market..

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    LOL. Thx

  • Baby Dragon

    long FDX (SL 43.79) this week's low.
    It is amusing that $TRAN is down nearly 3.5 % + ……

    So much order in the air looks like a BEAR TRAP…..
    FDX is my way of testing it…. (kind of 1 hour early than rest of the market….)

    Once a while I am amused….
    Do traders have a Darwinian Extinction problem when society goes in dark ages……..
    and then what do traders do in such cases…… ?

  • katzo7

    Contact me katzo368 (at) gmail
    Do not have much time today

  • adrian_boy

    So no more bullish counter-trend these days?

  • Erikd

    SHORT WITH EVERY PENNY YOU HAVE….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I'll be fine, have had 5 six figure days in a row, unfortunately Monday's was negative (LOL), but more than made up for it yesterday.

    Added 2nd wave of longs at SPY 76

  • J-So

    I believe my scenario I posted last night and re-posted this morning is correct. We will touch the bottom of the channel by the end of the week. It should end somewhere beneath 700 SPX. Possibly 690. This should complete wave 3 and we will get a sizeable bounce to around 800 on SPX. I do not think we will fill the gap from last week Tuesday until we make a wave 5 bottom as low as 450 on SPX.

  • chronictown

    wow, I love your work on th,e xlf charts. Can you post one when you get time. Thanks, town of chronic

  • slartybardfast

    Now thats what I'm talking about! 😉

  • Mr. L

    Ah, but bounced on the 61.8 from 741.02, let's see how far this goes

  • Vardoger

    I am concerned that we are in (b) of (iv) of 3 of 5 and that we are going to bounce here into (c) so I've cut half of my puts from yesterday.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Russell 2k is the weakest major index today. Been in and out of TWM twice here and looking to reload again w larger, <87 at this point, but would chase if this gets uberbloody.
    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

  • adrian_boy

    The low in XLF at 7.53 could be the right shoulder of the inverted H&S …

  • katzo7

    IMO, you are going against the grain. I do same, get something stuck in my mind.
    Hope you are right and I am wrong for you
    AND
    I am right and you are wrong for me.
    Again, look at drip, drip, drip
    Steepness of that chart looked too rushed
    This is orderly

  • chronictown

    Erik,what do you use to short this pig?

  • jigdaddy

    Thanks Erik!!

    ________________________________

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    stopped out of ERX will add if it confirms rt. shoulder of inv. H&S

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    can i borrow a penny lol

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Hey thanks for sharing your experience of Futures trading. I started trading yesterday night and so far so good. I am keep changing my stops and not being greedy or crazy.

    Thanks.

  • katzo7

    I thought it referred t the BULLS asses were about to get rammed.

  • katzo7

    Hey, get a gmail acct and we can google chat real time.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NEW POST

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Erik, what do u use for shorting XLF?

    Thanx

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    So far have added to SSO at 18.32 and 18.45, and FAS at 4.95, 4.96 and 4.98

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes – I actually just warned people about this possibility.

  • jaxon

    spx sub minuette W5 on it's way after sideways correxion (following clean wave2) ?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    back in ERX at 23.85

  • El gAto

    CELG lagging in recent days. Directional stochastics pointing lower. I know 'old school' charting!

    http://screencast.com/t/lRiXFZtI

    http://screencast.com/t/rguDyagIWy

  • standard_and_poor

    Target of 755 spx for today was met, see roadmap for details. Can still go lower obviously, I'll be very careful for balance of day.

  • rose2797

    There is something wrong with the site. It does not show the lateest comments.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Rock on T!

  • Erikd

    I always buy SPY front month, a nice speculative play would be to buy – march FAZ calls ATM and hold them the next 2 weeks,
    $8,000 invested NOW would be over $100,000 within 3 weeks… over 3 1/2 turns on your money….
    THIS WILL BE THE TRADE OF THE YEAR SO FAR…. buy FAZ march calls ATM 60 or 65 strike…
    this is a speculative play… up to 100 contracts is ok….

  • standard_and_poor

    Planning to close out ES daytrades on any further pullbacks.

  • rhae

    You were correct about the H&S…. will it break the right shoulder?
    My daily 10 day breath charts are still very oversold… I am biased up or sideways for now… a week or so

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Today? Again?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I tried front month last time and it took longer than I thought. Got myself Aprils for now – should still pay off nicely 😉

  • rose2797

    Erik what do u think about faz if u think xlf will be 4-6. What will be a good price to enter faz

  • Erikd

    mole if you have anymore loose change… buy the march with it. your money will turn twice by this friday and you can take off your initial investment.. this is the most leveraged way to play this downside…

  • yazzer

    how abt the SKFs???

  • standard_and_poor

    Closing out some ES here.

  • Lori

    there's a new thread…move over there. (see upper right – Turning Points 2.0)

  • arak0

    How is 100K/8K = 3.5 turns on your money? Isn't it more like 12.5 times?

  • Turbo Tim

    Erikd, Can you please advise me how to buy options, at what price FAZ and month March, etc. Never bought options before.
    Thanks for your help

  • Vic

    Rats, a bearish butterfly, as pretty as it gets:
    http://screencast.com/t/dQImuQKPsCn -BIDU.

  • Erikd

    8k to 16k one turn, 16k to 32k two turns, 32k to 64k three turns, 64k to 128k 4 turns…..

  • Erikd

    call your broker by phone and tell them to buy march FAZ calls at the 60 strike price, takes 5 minutes max.

  • Erikd

    no. EOW and EOM are here..

  • nugie

    Looks like we might be going back into triangle hell

  • nugie

    Can someone kindly tell me how to send a prophet chart in to post on this site????