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Update On All Of Volar’s Calls
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Update On All Of Volar’s Calls

by MoleJune 30, 2011

Well here is an update on trades that I have been discussing. The edge I posted last week made 20 Emini points. My swing trades did even better, the ones that are still in play all have stops above break even (1R for that matter). And that NOV/DEC Bean/Corn spread was absolutely spectacular! Depending on your fill, you could make between 3 and 7K on that trade alone by tomorrow’s open (December Corn is down limit right now).

Anyways, one must keep in mind that blind squirrels find nuts, and that includes me… Did I get lucky and buy 1258-1265 3 times? I would say most likely, yes. BUT 99% of what I do is based on DATA, and it WORKS better than trading based on emotion or hope.

Here was the edge that I said to hold 5 days. Sure you could hold another 5 if you like, but heck I was up to 4N long the SP/NQ/IWM, which is just too much. I have taken a lot of that off of the table and placed stops accordingly.

Now how about that NOV/DEC Bean/Corn spread? Well corn is down limit for a day or two and it looks like she is going to at least 2.2x, which is about 5K per unit traded ūüėČ

So tomorrow will be telling as corn can go down another 30-40cents, while beans should be flat (remember I said to short 2 corn for every 1 beans.)

ANYWAY here is some stuff on sentiment:

First, don’t forget the provability of the VIX being in a very narrow and low range on JULY 4th….

Also FWIW there is still 0 $$ in equity mutual funds relative to bonds. This may be more bearish bonds than anything else if you ask me….

Equity fund flows are at their lowest level, and bond’s are at their highest level for some time..

Also for the monthly Rydex Advisor Confidence data…. bears came out of the woods, which is bullish as crap if you ask me.

Also, another monthly survey I follow is the SSICI (state street global sentiment index). It is also very low.


Clearly people are bearish on Global stocks.

Here is an update on the seasonal Puts- Calls flush:

Well we got the flush I was looking for, and this is clearly bullish if you ask me.

Best of “luck” trading, hope some of you at least took 1 of my many trades as of late.

-Volar


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Southern

    Volar.. great post and great calls!  I didnt take any of them and for that, I am probably officially done with trading. 

    One quick question on the ZL before I go… is that negative divergence on the hourly or am I just not reading it correctly?¬† I thought I was reading divergence other times this week, but apparently wasn’t.¬† Any feedback might save the few bucks I have left.¬† Thanks.

  • nyse

    I dont think so man, but I am still learning how to properly read it.

  • Anonymous

    Brilliant Volar. ¬†Where do you think we go from here? ¬†We have already had a great retracement. ¬†I can’t believe we went back up FASTER than we came down. ¬†Pattern wise, the cup has formed. ¬†Now we need the handle.

  • Southern

    question on the cup and handle… if you look at the daily, can there be a¬†handle (5/20-5/31) in front of the cup (6/2-Present)?¬† and if so, what direction has the best odds.¬†

  • Anonymous

    I’m no expert but I have not heard of the handle before the cup. ¬†FWIW the cup could go higher but it is not a requirement.

  • Anonymous

    Mmmm. Dinner.
    http://screencast.com/t/R8L3MN3ui6
    BBQ Tofu over Corn Cakes. http://vegandad.blogspot.com/2010/08/southern-tofu-on-corn-cake.html

  • Anonymous

    There is NOTHING one can do to TOFU to make it taste better…this is a known fact, ignored by many.

  • Anonymous

    Is POMO over with now? If so, who will keep the market up? Maybe this was the blow off that I have been waiting for.

  • Anonymous

    From what I can tell the 600B buying is over but there are a few stragglers scheduled for July
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
    We will know more on the 13th when the next schedule comes out.
    Anyone know more than this?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_N2BRXG3E35GXBXZTEBSXLUSDCM B

    4 trend days in a row, incredible…

  • Anonymous

    Thank you Sir.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See, this is what confuses me – I have seen a lot of people drop off here despite the fact that Volar and yours truly have been spot on with our calls for over a year now. The Friday and the 13 post comes to mind as well – almost nobody took those either.

    What’s going on? You guys come here and some of you even pay the sub fees. Either many of you are simply quietly banking coin or something else is going on. If it’s the latter I would like to know what it is so that we can address it.¬†

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look, reading the Zero is not that much different from a stochastic or a MACD – just look for divergences and also keep an eye out on the intensity. The problem is that many of you (and I’m not pointing at anyone specifically) are often tempted to interpret the signal according to your book and that’s where the trouble starts. i mean, the readings on the hourly have been quite spot on lately – just look at those lines I painted. Beautiful divergence which indicated a bottoming pattern. PLUS I submitted additional posts for all subscribers indicating that the tape would probably jump higher.¬†

    I am not sure what else I can do, especially for $29/month ūüėȬ†

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh come on – tofu is only a vessel – you can spice it up nicely and make delicious dishes.

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    it was all crystal clear….and thanks for the line drawing although we can all see it with our naked eye…pretty simple stuff!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are now at target on the SPX and I strongly recommend you guys go into cash over the long weekend:

  • Anonymous

    I’m not done w/ trading but I didn’t take these trades. ¬†I am purposely slowing down for the summer. ¬†Late Aug I will get back on top of my game and start ramping up. ¬†I will still keep my subscription current because the education alone is worth the price of admission. ¬†I would have gone long Mon IF we could have closed above the Fri high. ¬†It was an inside day that failed to break higher so I let it go. ¬†Hourly zero was up against resistance and we dropped into the close.

    I’d really like to see an update of your SXPA200 and 50 charts as well as the NYSE Up/Down Vol chart when you have the time.

  • Anonymous

    Right so. Put tons of soy paste + catchup + Tabasco. You are all set! 

  • Anonymous

    Speaking as a long-time reader and now steady subscriber…

    I avidly read Mole’s, Volar’s, and Scott’s trade ideas and have gleaned tons of tactical info from them — lessons which will help me forever. Oftentimes those lessons are best absorbed in a holistic context like discussing a particular trade, and watching it play out. You guys have big ballz for calling your trades in public, and even bigger ballz for being right so often. ¬†

    I don’t take the particular trades because I have my own approach. Still, many thanks for the hard work and invaluable knowledge you have shared.

    BZ

  • Anonymous

    Canadian market close Friday, US on Monday. There is no telling which way the ship will rock.

    Quarter end this week. The dirty trick is up today, and crash tomorrow? More chicken feed? Cow feed?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Volar, that is a spectacular 3D chart.

    but is it backwards? I can’t see crap behind the manta-ray wings.
    :-)

  • volar

    I¬† WAS (aka I am out) SHORT VEGA hence it was negative ūüėČ

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whoa whoa whoa..
    Zero is not that much different from a stochastic or a MACD
    I said this months ago, and was flogged severely and given penance.
    -GG

  • nyse
  • nyse

    Strong QE “finish”.

  • nyse

    I thought the “P” was for¬†permanent ūüėČ

  • Anonymous

    Mole said *reading* the Zero is not much different…

    And c’mon, you know you enjoyed the flogging!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Southern

    Mole there isn’t anything else you can do. (and I pay $49 unless there was a discount or something)¬† I wasn’t asking for that.¬† I simply wanted to learn how to correctly read an indicator.
     
    I think you may forget that people who shouldn’t trade (yours truly) can interpert the post that you and Volar put up¬†in any way they want.¬† I often times can read through a post a couple times and still have no idea which direction I should take because my bearish bias will sneak its stupid head in.¬† I have been trying to be an “analyst” when all I am is an “order entry guy”.¬† (a dumbass, yes)¬† Sorry if I pissed¬†you off by posting my question about the ZL¬† I feel like a¬†moron because I have been a ZL sub for a year and still can’t read or understand it.¬† I think I see divergence and find out that I am an idiot for thinking that.¬†¬† I am glad that some of you in here trade without any problems and can read indicators like a book.¬† I can’t.¬† It must not be my cup of tea because I fail miserably at it.¬† Maybe taking some time off will help.¬† This wasn’t a pity party, just where I am at.

  • Schwerepunkt

    That level is also mighty close to the current VWAP. Should close right around there just to make things that much more confusing.

  • nyse

    The most important thing I have learned here is to really trade what I see not what I want to ¬†see or what I think I *should* see (i.e., what should be happening). It sucks losing money, but the worst thing you can do is get down on yourself. Listen to the guys on here… each person is different and each trades his own way, but – and this is the important bit – each has his/her own system or rules that govern their decisions.¬†

    Calling yourself a dumbass and berating yourself will cause you to second guess yourself; until youre clearheaded, it could be difficult to develop a system that works. Id encourage you to discuss what you are gathering from the posts etc. (unless such an invitation is not welcomed, in which case, I am sure a proper flogging is on the docket for yours truly) because this could help tease out any bias you may inadvertantly be bringing to your trades. 

    I wish you the best of luck man. Just remember that it is a process and takes time to learn/develop a methodology that fits with your own personality and tendancies.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    As Mole has cautioned, I will back it up. (not that he needs backup, that’s Volars job. hehe)
    T time nearly complete. or as they would say in ZH land .. Symmetry b!tchez.
    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=n5h8no&s=7

    Market close in 40min.

  • bisq

    Volar your data helped me go core long but now im thinking the July rally we expected has happened in the space of a week. We scrubbed Junes losses in 4 days.   Are we now looking at a different outcome for July or do you still see next month as being bullish?

  • bisq

    Well qe-lite goes into effect with the roll-off being reinvested to the tune of 25 billion a month give or take. But the boyz need bagholders so i expect some serious distribution into whatever free monetization the Fed has left.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Tough to make an assessment right now before 7/4 – let’s wait for Tuesday and then see what the velocity is.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    http://www.nyse.com/about/newsevents/1176373643795.html
    July 4th is closed.  no special caveats.

  • Anonymous

    Just got on line a short while ago.  My Modem went kaput and I had to get a new one.  

    Tip of the Cap to Volar for being Spot on with his Sentiment Analysis.  

    And as Mole said, the 1320 Target has been tagged.  

    I didn’t go to cash at 1320 but I did get as close to a 0 Delta as I could. ¬† ¬†I’ve got Gamma that can push me one way or the other so we’ll see which way we go from here. ¬† ¬†¬†

  • Anonymous

    Great comments NYSE

  • bisq

    i hear you boss.  my rotund gut feel is that we can headfake from here to totally screw over alot of the market before a big ole fashioned dump. and i mean dump.

  • nyse

    how do you know how wide the stem of the T should be? I find your analysis very interesting and look forward to your posts.

  • Anonymous

    Hey Southern,

    if you are a Moron for not being able to read ZL then what am I? ¬† I can’t read it either? ¬† There are many people here who can spot divergences on ZL and are very successful at it. ¬†However, I believe that ZL is something that can be relatively easy for some people and difficult for others. ¬†It’s not a matter of intelligence or at least I hope not because that would make me a dumbass too. ¬†:)

     Not being able to read ZL is one of the things that forced me to develop my own rules and to switch over to the Gold Subscription instead of ZL.  

    A bad analogy might be how some people are able to read all of the EW Motive and Corrective Waves down to Minuet and Sub-Minuet. ¬† Well I’ve looked at EW on and off for 13 Years and I will never, I repeat, never be able to understand and be confident using Elliot Wave. ¬†Does that make me stupid? ¬†No. ¬†Actually it might make me smart after the Primary Wave 3 Fiasco. ¬†

    I truly believe that a person either has the acumen to be able to understand and pick out all the little nuances of this stuff or they don’t. ¬†I don’t. ¬†

    So what do I do?  Well I use my own form of conventional T/A and information from this site and the ES Gold to give me balance.  

    In any event, I understand your frustration and good luck.  

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Southern, I completely feel your pain – been there, done that.¬†FWIW Here’s a few tricks that helped me immensely.

    The biggest breakthrough I experienced in reading the Zero was to learn when a divergence wasn’t a divergence… this happened to me a lot on trend days in the ES, where often the Zero will start with a strong signal but then steadily dwindle to the zeroline. It can do this and then stay flat at zero for the rest of the day, though the market grinds higher extending its range. One big clue that we’re in a strong trend (e.g. up-day) is that the Zero spends almost all its time above the zeroline. Another big clue is watching market internals like (on TOS) $UVOL-$DVOL and $ADVN-$DECN, and their Nasdaq counterparts.
    Lastly, if it looks like it’s been trending up all day… and the internals are in agreement… it’s a frickin’ uptrend day! ¬†Don’t fight it unless you know what you are attempting! It’s really that simple most days. Obviously if you can simply recognize the trend — and admit it to yourself and get onboard — you hardly need any other indicators.

    Secondly, a lot of people disparage Sim trading, but imo that’s shite. Like saying you should jump into a fighter jet without training on a small plane first, and without training on a jet simulator. Paper-trade until you are consistent with a realistic trading plan, and then when you think you are ready you can go get your ass kicked with real money. Just don’t be fooled by the Sim which will give you too-easy fills and which will have a lot less psychological pressure than real money. Mentally deduct a bid-ask spread on every trade.

    One thing I did to make Sim-trading psychology more realistic was I grabbed three buddies who I desperately want to convince to start trading… and I posted my demo-account P/L to them twice a day for months. Also had them watch live while I traded. That was wayyy more scary/humiliating than wanking a simulator on your own… and wayyy cheaper than paying full price for the abuse.

    Thirdly, while in Sim-land you have the option to try many different approaches and techniques. Of course, you can analyze till you’re dead, so keep it reasonable… but I found it very helpful to try completely different strategies on different days. Like cross-training in Flamenco even though you really wanna be a breakdancer… ¬†But even more importantly you should always know what your opposite-trade is thinking. It’s really a turning point (say, for a perma-bear like me) when you are finally on the right side of an up-day, loving it not fighting it, and you go sailing happily upward past bear-trap after bear-trap… you can just feel the perma-bears out there shorting every one of those terrible setups… they are helping the market go up as their stops get run, and you can sell it all back to them at the top! Truly, few things are so sweet as Schadenfreude against one’s former self.

    My story: Traded my first small (huge to me!) account away in a few months of lucky wins and inexorable commissions, but was fortunate enough to find Evil Speculator plus a few successful traders in various TOS chatrooms, so I saw how wrongly I was doing it… more importantly I knew it could be done. So I committed myself to getting it done. Spent two and a half years studying, and nearly a year trading Sim. (Yep. That sucked. We can wax nostalgic on my island one day.) Now I’m a mellow any-direction-is-fine guy with a simmering vengeant perma-bear locked safely inside. (I take out my perma-bear when I play field sports. He doesn’t get to trade.) The final payoff was I happened into a strategy that I now trade for maybe a couple hours each morning, and I got my days back.

    Suuure most people, upon draining their first account, should run away screaming and never look back… they really should. But if you can maintain your confidence, and you have a history of successful perseverance against seemingly-horrific odds… then this business is for you. It can be done, and you can do it.

    Really hope this helps you or others.
    BZ

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Southern, I have been a Zero subscriber for a while too, and still unable to make good calls on my trades. So I am in the same boat.
    I see what I saw on Zero, but then do the opposite, then caught in a bad trade for the past year. This one time, I did went long near the low 1260, but I went out quickly as well when the hourly zero drop off the first time on Monday, and the market took off after that. Now how do I deal with that?
    I remembered there was a post awhile back on setting stop and riding things, have to look for it, perhaps Mole and put it under one of that tab on top so we can read and remind ourselves.
    But the hard part is emotion. The thing to learn is zero emotion…This is tough…

  • Anonymous

    Well I think next week UE numbers will be horrible. A lot of companies fiscal year ends end today 6/30 with lots of lay-offs to better the bottom line. Out here in So Cal, besides myself, I’ve heard of lots of lay-offs (there’s lots of job offerings too, if you can work for cheap). Hope it not true, but a high 400K number or higher is likely. Now will the market care, typically not. Fewer employed staff means more company profit, but it may provide a temp down draft for a day.

  • Anonymous

    I am no expert on the ZL, but I feel like one after listening to you guys (or as Mole would put it –you knuckle dragging mouth breathers). Check out yesterdays video. Dig yesterday’s comments, the guy with the speedy gonzales avatar called¬†the divergence¬†before the drug addled Mole.

    I forget who did it, but somebody once posted a ZL chart sliced to show just a divergence. That was helpful. It is simple: market going up with the Zero making successively lower peaks (lower positive readings) and it is a mirror image when the market is going down. I think when the market is going down some commentators use the term higher to describe a series of weakening NEGITIVE readings — as the spikes down (below 0) are getting less strong and the negative peak is “higher” going by “up and down”, but LOWER in terms of zero reading. I think that maybe a source of some of the confusion.

    Maybe we need to define terms. Say you have the following¬†NEGATIVE¬†0 readings: a spike to -3, then -.05, then -2.5, then -.05, then -2…. I call that a series of LOWER peaks as in -2 is LOWER – closer to the 0 line then 3 or 2.5, some call a sequence like that as a series of HIGHER (negative) peaks as in -2 is a “higher” reading then -3. So the foggy nomenclature in the comments of 0 subs can confuse. Look on the bright side… if you can spot divergences when we are going up stand on your head (o.k turning your monitor upside down would work) when we are going down.

    On another note: banks skyed yesterday leading market, today they are laggards. Do you know what that means? If so you are one step ahead of me!

  • Anonymous

    LOL

    I guess we’ve come a long way with modems. ¬† I remember my first one in the 80’s and I think it had ¬†2,000 Bps. ¬†By the time we were able to get to 56K on Dial Up that was “Blazing Fast” ¬†although few people got 56K most were 25K. ¬†

    And now after Broadband, the thought of going back to Dial-up is a nightmare.  :) 

  • Southern

    BZ… WOW! Thanks so much!¬† This is incredible insight and I will have you to thank for becoming an actual “trader” and not a “gambler.”

    That is what I have been doing wrong.  Seriously, thank you for your insight.  I think Mole could devote an entire post to what you just put up here.  This is why I am here, to learn.  So again, thank you!

  • volar

    time will tell but i dont want to be real biased in either direction here. I have some data to crunch, but odds are we just grind a bit higher till mid july. AUG can be rough. 

  • volar

    I generally think¬†about¬†75 points from the bottom would be the “min” FWIW

  • http://twitter.com/MNtweetes MNtweetes

    thats not far now

  • http://twitter.com/MNtweetes MNtweetes

    sorry wrong spot for comment

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Without offending anyone – really liked your comment ūüėČ

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Right spot – just wrong comment :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Remember those days – LOL – remember BBS?

  • http://twitter.com/MNtweetes MNtweetes

    i meant to respond to volar’s comment on spx min 75 point move from low but ive lost his comment

  • Anonymous

    I agree…. making tofu taste better is polishing a turd

  • Bob the Horse

    Would second everything BZ says.  The reason trading is so difficult is that it is the most expensive training course in the world! I can guarantee that everyone has blown up a trading account at one time or another.  When I first started out I was so totally useless I might as well have been flipping a coin on a trade entry then I was so hyper when the trade was on, I would exit at a totally random moment.  It was like an expensive form of laxative.

    15 years later and I am a totally different animal.  Without trying to puff myself up, I recently won a (very minor) industry award (I work in hedge funds).  My point is that everyone starts off being utterly shite at trading. But that is totally normal and your crapness now has absolutely zero bearing on your potential.  What will matter is putting in the time learning about trading (I have read pretty much every trading book ever written).

    My breakthrough came about by realizing that the outcome of any trade was totally independent of either my emotional state or any past trades.  That sounds obvious but it is about reaching that level of inner calm which can then allow you to monitise the skills you have required.  There was a rugby player in England (chap by the name of Jonny Wilkinson) who was.is probably the best goal kicker there has ever been.  I read an interview with him once and he was asked how he was so good.  The answer was a) practice but more importantly b) he said he had worked with a sports psychologist who had helped him to realise that the outcome of any kick he took was nothing to do with the previous one.  There was no such thing as a bad day, only a bad kick.  And the outcome of the next kick was entirely a function of him executing his correct technique.  This was for him, a massive mental breakthrough.

    Anyway, it occurred to me that trading is basically the same.

  • volar

    Well said.

    ” It was an expensive form of laxative”

    Superb

  • Anonymous

    Take a look at the 4-hour chart on gold. Mine. Quietly slipping. Are the fundies selling gold to buy equity?¬† Is that why when gold drops, dollar/euro flat the last two days, while equity shot up like a rocket?¬† The game they played…¬†

    It would be “fun” for the Asian traders sell off /ES starting Sunday night while the hedgies are at the Hampton, pocketed with bonus. They got two days to do it with …

  • Anonymous

    Well, you’ve made my day as well! Thanks for thanking me!

    I also think we should each in our own way find something additional we can do to thank Mole. I mean, the $50 a month hardly covers it, right?¬†In my case I’m a hobby sculptor, so I’m scheming something sexy cast in gold or silver… perhaps a tankard for swilling his hefeweizen, I dunno.¬†

    In the nearer term I know he loves comments and everyone contributing something. Probably¬†the best value-added we subscribers can contribute is examples of how we’ve interpreted and applied what we are learning here.

    Live long and prosper,
    BZ

  • Anonymous

    Volar, absolutely amazing call and analysis. Stunned and thankful.

    Sold SSO calls and bought SSO puts today as we are in the 1,330 zone. Now back to “Sitting, Waiting, Wishing”… ūüėČ

  • Anonymous

    Ok this is getting ridiculous РZero does not support this.

  • volar

    ********

    FYI OUT OF ALL LONGS HIT MIN TARGET AND VIX IS LOW ENOUGH

    62 EMINI POINTS 137 NQ

    OUT OF NOV BEANS/ DEC CORN SPREAD 2.22x

  • Anonymous

    I’m backing up the truck now, loading on SQQQ.

  • bisq

    Nice work.   This action makes me very nervous of holding any longs. It has been such a vicious bounce we have wiped out many shorts. Without QE i am fully expecting a dump , a proper mother fucker of a dump , in late july/ early aug now , the markets has set it up nicely. These sharp moves are classical before trend reversals. imho you should all get prepared (im not against a marginal high around 1380 but that will just make the move lower more wicked)

    Da Boyz will be buying some nice out the money Aug puts here even with the skew.  Deeeeeep OTM. 

  • Anonymous

    I wonder who will be brave enough to hold long during the week-end…

  • Anonymous

    I use QID, just bought a few calls too.

  • Anonymous

    congrats!

  • Anonymous

    not me, i bought some qqq puts here.

  • Anonymous

    Dropped Soy at the open and sprinted with Corn to its current low. I was able to hit your high-side target.
    I feel dirty though, because I broke the spread (and thus didn’t play by the rules).

  • nyse

    Thanks dude

  • Anonymous

    good trading. 
    So on the spread, you stay in that 2/1 ratio the entire trade I’m thinking, never trading in and out.
    Is that the typical way to trade a spread?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are at my max target now – strongly suggest you guys go into cash.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t buy puts ahead of a long weekend.

  • nyse
  • Anonymous

    Please explain.  VIX is low.

  • Anonymous

    I thought the *usual* way to spread futures was to get the (price1*vol1*tickval1)/(price2*vol2*tickval2) = 1, but Volar had that nifty historical chart based strictly on price, and the price difference was almost 1 soy per 2 corn. And his chart was seasonal with a specific entry/exit and time/price

  • bisq

    Its just an extra day of theta priced into the option that you wont be getting any value out of due to the market being shut (for 3 days)

  • Anonymous

    it doesn’t matter if you buy august and expect vix to rise soon.

  • volar

    Corn and beans have same contract/$/bu and thus if the ratio is 2 and I am targeting 2.3 then a 2 bean/1 Corn on NOV DEC works perfect.

    FWIW it does not work well with options vis a vis delta

    I was only LONG beans until beans broke trend then I went short 2 corn….

    That beings said i basically rode that ratio from 1.95 to 2.22 one way or another. Tho i broke my rules by picking a leg at one point : (

  • volar

    ya stick with the spread, but nice trade!

  • volar

    thanks man

  • Anonymous

    Per Mole:¬† “small range” on the ZL….. Important safety tip, thanks!

  • volar

    Yes that is the correct math for a spread! Especially if you are using options! Boy i forgot to do the VOL part and got blown out of that spread with options one time.. cost me a crapload

     

  • Anonymous

    very good thanks, 
    I missed the time aspect in his posts

  • nyse

    Yeah thx for that ūüėČ

  • Anonymous

    ok so in a usual spread , one holds both until the target.
    Kinda nice ¬†, you don’t care so much when it retraces some of the gains b/c you are hedged

  • Anonymous

    Last week, I said that I thought I was falling in Like with Weekly SPY Options.  This week, I have to say that my feelings about Weekly Options might be moving up to the next level.   :)

    Yesterday, I bought some July(2) 133 Calls for 48 Cents.  Today, I closed them out for 95 Cents. 

    I now have a Negative Delta which is subject to change if we make a new high.   

  • Anonymous

    less than 1% away from a perfect H&S on the SPX chart….close enough for government work, though

  • Anonymous

    Back to Neutral. ¬†This market is insane but “when in Rome”.

  • nyse

    This is good. Especially this:

    “My breakthrough came about by¬†realizing¬†that the outcome of any trade was totally independent of either my emotional state or any past trades.”Thanks

  • Anonymous

    this surely looks like a typical theoretical bear market rally, definitely not bull market stuff. just a thought…

  • volar

    Well I owe you all an apology.

    70-85% chance of a rally on first trading day of JULY. Average return 1-10 Emini points.

    Cheers- should have posted that info, but spent way to much time at a well deserved drinking binge last night.

    Sorry for not posting that piece.

    That being said the first trading day after JULY 4th is only 54% positive but the average return is <.01%

  • Anonymous

    This looks like the Market of the Roaring Twenties Today. ¬† Here I thought I did good with an Overnight Double on some Weekly Calls. ¬†And then I find out with almost 3 hours to go, I’ve already left another 20% on the table.

    Jeesh!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I’m able to finesse entries on a 1-min chart with these net lines. So far, what I like is net line buy failure before re-shorting like I did here.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/408f75bb-008c-471c-adc3-8e0e7528c0ff/00003504.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you guys look at corn today?

  • Anonymous

    Let’s not talk about looking at last night’s corn, today…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Nah, been focused on precious metals.

    Hey, have you seen the gold to SPX ratio today. Take a look at the daily and weekly charts. Here’s my weekly chart:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/59db09d9-b4c0-4620-bef9-2f464a50bc8e/00003505.png

    Unlike the Zero Hedge crowd, I got precious metal relative weakness right.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Not that I’m going to trade corn or anything, but I’m just curious: Are gaps up and down in corn less likely to be filled (immediately) than in stocks?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/7770d46b-abbb-426c-af8e-9ae421415fcf/00003506.png

  • volar

    Yes obviously watching December futures, but closed out of my 2 contract short, one long beans this am at 2.22

  • Anonymous

    Nice RBW. ¬†This is something that I can work with. ¬†I’m going to try this on the 1 Minute and the 5 Minute for exits and entries during the day. ¬†

    Of course Hindsight is always right, coulda, woulda, shoulda, but I could have had a Triple instead of a Double if I’d let them weeklies ride at the casino. ¬† :)If we close at these levels, it will make it 5 Consecutive Days of a 1% Move Higher or Greater on the SPX.Once again, my Gamma has taken me back to Delta Positive but this is crazy!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I’m using (O+H+L+C)/4 Close-to-Close net lines. With these settings on the 1-minute silver chart, I often see a net line buy or sell signal and then failure.¬†Today actually had a lot of instances.¬†I learned the hard way a couple days ago that one can’t just take a signal.

    In order to take a signal, one almost needs a rule or two like at least a minute above (or below) the net line and then a higher (or lower bar). Those are the rules I’m using today anyway. Maybe I’ll change or refine them.

    A failed signal can be really nice because of Scott’s “should do x but if not, then expect a bigger move in the opposite direction” principle.

    Now, I need to be sure that I don’t overwatch the 1-minute chart though (especially since I’m managing a trade based on a freaking OptX period!) and just use it more as a final stage before placing an order.

  • Anonymous

    OK as of 2:15 PM, the SPX is within 2 points the Upper 25 BB of 1338.  

    The big question is does it go all the way to the upper 100 BB of 1366?At the present rate of acceleration it could reach the 100 BB at approximately  11:AM, Thursday July 7th.  Or not.    :)

  • raised_by_wolves

    If SPX continues higher next week, would you consider pair trading against precious metals? Here’s my /GC-/ES OptX chart with commentary:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/8c1e3cac-c57e-4b35-8256-2a9e1029ca94/00003508.png

    Again, notice the net line failures.

  • volar

    FYI if any of you HAVE been short VEGA or Gamma for that matter time to stop that….

     the VIX is at lower bollinger band which is not only a * potential sell* signal, but it is a heck of a good sign to get out of short vega/gamma trades

  • raised_by_wolves

    The one instance of net line success on that chart was good for an entire year, capturing the entire trend. Counting the current instance, there are four instances of net line failures, good for playing reversals of trend or tops and bottoms of sideways.

    Hehe, so far I’m using net lines on OptX and 1-minute charts. That’s how I roll ūüėČ

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good thing I’m long that vega/gamma shit ūüėČ

  • volar

    LOL how are you playing it?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, see my next post.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (without nutmeg I hope)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Can I post this, it’s borderline.
    heck it’s the weekend!
    pull it if you must.
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_kYRNMKpNITc/S8v6Xmv-qoI/AAAAAAAAIE8/WcQi1hzCwnU/s400/miss-corn-flakes-fig-6.jpg

  • raised_by_wolves

    Does SPY calls and an order to buy puts count?

  • Anonymous

    I always wondered what they made my Porn Flakes with :-)

  • Anonymous

    No apology necessary. Still very happy with my trade, and all the money you helped me make. I’ll sit tight and see what’s next.

  • Anonymous

    LOL remember BBS, that brought it back…¬†

    Remember all your software on cassette tape… and dreaming of someday seeing a disk drive?¬†Remember 2K of RAM on a maxxed TRS-80?

    BZ