Update On All Of Volar’s Calls
Well here is an update on trades that I have been discussing. The edge I posted last week made 20 Emini points. My swing trades did even better, the ones that are still in play all have stops above break even (1R for that matter). And that NOV/DEC Bean/Corn spread was absolutely spectacular! Depending on your fill, you could make between 3 and 7K on that trade alone by tomorrow’s open (December Corn is down limit right now).
Anyways, one must keep in mind that blind squirrels find nuts, and that includes me… Did I get lucky and buy 1258-1265 3 times? I would say most likely, yes. BUT 99% of what I do is based on DATA, and it WORKS better than trading based on emotion or hope.
Here was the edge that I said to hold 5 days. Sure you could hold another 5 if you like, but heck I was up to 4N long the SP/NQ/IWM, which is just too much. I have taken a lot of that off of the table and placed stops accordingly.
Now how about that NOV/DEC Bean/Corn spread? Well corn is down limit for a day or two and it looks like she is going to at least 2.2x, which is about 5K per unit traded 😉
So tomorrow will be telling as corn can go down another 30-40cents, while beans should be flat (remember I said to short 2 corn for every 1 beans.)
ANYWAY here is some stuff on sentiment:
First, don’t forget the provability of the VIX being in a very narrow and low range on JULY 4th….
Also FWIW there is still 0 $$ in equity mutual funds relative to bonds. This may be more bearish bonds than anything else if you ask me….
Equity fund flows are at their lowest level, and bond’s are at their highest level for some time..
Also for the monthly Rydex Advisor Confidence data…. bears came out of the woods, which is bullish as crap if you ask me.
Also, another monthly survey I follow is the SSICI (state street global sentiment index). It is also very low.
Clearly people are bearish on Global stocks.
Here is an update on the seasonal Puts- Calls flush:
Well we got the flush I was looking for, and this is clearly bullish if you ask me.
Best of “luck” trading, hope some of you at least took 1 of my many trades as of late.