I’m about to fall into bed, so just a chart tonight:
The breach of 865.73 and then the touch of 881 were two inflection points that changed our wave count considerably. The bottom line is that the main trend continues to the upside – all the gyrations we had to endure in the past month were part of a sideways consolidation triangle-like pattern – I know it’s ugly. Rest assured that he exact count will reveal itself over time – but corrective ways are almost always complex and their complexities manifold.
For now the 850 level should hold even if we correct down tomorrow or Friday (blue option). As the bears have remained in hibernation over the past few weeks it’s not impossible that we might see an immediate continuation to the upside, although I currently would give the blue option a 65% probability.
Gold continues to be a cruel mistress as it’s teasing me again with what looks like another tepid drop to the downside. As I noted today – we need to see an acceleration here in a very short order, otherwise the theta burn will force my hand to finally pull my puts.