I’m The Decider!
I’m The Decider!
I’m seeing a veritable laundry list of setups this morning, which is a bit more than I bargained for as I have to hit the road in an hour or so. The overall theme across the board seems to be the 100-hour as the ultimate ‘decider’ of where things are heading – let’s take it from the top:
The SPX/VIX ratio caught my attention earlier today. Although the SPX swung up a little the VIX moved along, thus pushing the ratio down (hope this makes sense to anyone mathematically challenged). There is a distinct lack of momentum in equities again today and I am starting to wonder if we have two types of days now: nothin’ doin’ days and pre-FOMC days. I came across an article the other day that stated that if you took out all the FOMC sponsored spikes the SPX would be trading near 800. Food for thought…
Anyway, I often see this kind of stuff ahead of acceleration as it forces both bears and bulls to buy premium at higher cost. Be careful and don’t get over exposed. And don’t be surprised if you suddenly see your premiums drop despite the fact that equities did not move. We’ve seen it all and if you are an option buyer/seller you should watch this ratio closely before taking on positions.
Meanwhile over at the woodshed we are back below the previously breached NLBL. Not so good and the next level of daily support is the 25-day SMA. However, I think the 100-hour is really where the rubber meets the road today – we are still testing it and this may be a great entry – long if she stays above and short if we decisively drop below. Keep watching that SPX/VIX ratio as well for early hints – those MMs often know it first.
Ole’ bucky is back at its 25-day SMA and at hourly resistance. Again this one seems to be the decider – so roll with itl
Crude – similar story except the 100-hour appears to be leading prices down. On the daily side we are still shaking out weak hands near the 100-day, which tells me that whatever move follows should be profitable (or painful if you find yourself on the wrong end of it).
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Soybean – right at the 100-day and slowing down. I usually like that as it apparently seems to respect it. And that means we have a strategic launch point for getting positioned. It’s all about energy levels. The big moves usually happen when the crowd has been discouraged from participating in it.
Silver is now at double daily support and again it’s a good spot to either trade continuation higher or a break down.
Inside day + NR4 combo on sugar – have your fill but watch your bottom line 😉
Coffee dancing on the 100-hour. Looks like support to me – at least right now. I would take the other side on a break down – I don’t want to be directionally biased.
Copper – at 25-day SMA and already below its NLSL. The SMA is the last hurdle here and if she breaks we could see acceleration lower. Until that happens it’s a good entry for a long.
Currencies – plenty of movement today. The NZD/USD is making another stab at its 100-hour right now. However, there’s daily dual resistance looming above which will correlate in a day or two. I am thinking short right now with a stop above the NLBL. Of course flipping on a breach of the Net-Line goes without saying.
EUR/CAD – at NLSL – it doesn’t seem to want to get out of the gate. Great long here and at the SMA. I guess this one will take a bit of patience.
EUR/AUD – also at the 100-hour and that should be a defensible spot, thus great to get positioned. Hey, where did GWB go? 😉
[/amprotect]Well, I’m off to the desert – see you all tomorrow!
Cheers,
