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Archive for October, 2010
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Back To Basics

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October 19, 2010

Back To Basics

Here is one sign that is sometimes early – but rarely wrong:

Well, I have a better one – simple but effective 😉

Nice cross-over on my weekly stochastic – the heat is on for the longs. This chart has only failed me once on a long term basis – which was obviously in summer/fall 2009 when nothing could stop a relentless POMO induced melt up.

Let’s see what happens this time. But the odds are slowly starting to shift now. I want to see the Dollar punch higher here as well – in order to bring down equities we need to see several factors combine and produce a downside pull that even Bernanke’s printing machines [...]

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I See Green Candles!

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October 19, 2010

I See Green Candles!

Although X-Mas is two months away I’m seeing some interesting candles today – on the DXY that is.

No, not those – but almost as festive. Let’s have a look, shall we? [amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck. [/amprotect] [amprotect=1,9,10, 5,2] –

What I’m seeing here is a net-line reversal bar, [...]

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The Bouncing Ball Theory

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October 18, 2010

The Bouncing Ball Theory

Alright – let’s rub our few remaining brain cells together for some basic math. Zeno’s motion paradoxes all have to do with dividing time into ever smaller slices. We can realize such a sequence of ever-smaller time intervals by watching a bouncing ball:

The figure above represents a ball dropped from an initial height h0 . When it bounces it loses energy, so that the next bounce height, h1 , is smaller. The model used here is that the fraction of energy lost on each bounce is a constant, independent of energy.

In the figure, the ball is given a small horizontal velocity to the right, so that it bounces further to the right each time. The [...]

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All Eyes On The Dollar

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October 17, 2010

All Eyes On The Dollar

Aloe Blacc sums it up nicely – although I think he needs to change those lyrics a little:

I need a stronger dollar, a stronger dollar’s what I need

(hey hey)

Well I need a stronger dollar, a stronger dollar is what I need

(hey hey)

And I said I need a stronger dollar, a stronger dollar is what I need

And if it can’t find a bottom, would you share some yen with me?

Let’s not kid ourselves. The whole equities game now clearly boils down to this simple formula:

(Dollar == plunging && midterm_elections) ? bears = getting_screwed : bears = less_screwed;

Well, there you [...]

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