Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.


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Cheers,

The Squeeze Is On!

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Looks like the squeeze is on – equity futures have continued to rip higher overnight and the E-Mini is now facing the 25-day SMA which admittedly has only soft context based on prior interactions. We are a bit in limbo here on the ST side so I wouldn’t suggest any pertinent entries this morning.

Here’s one for the leeches though – EUR/CHF – very nice floor pattern and it’s now trying to pop over a NLBL. I’m long here with a stop below the two SMAs – pretty solid support if it decides to retest.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs…


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On all these setups I strongly encourage you use our futures and forex risk calculators – limit your exposure to 1% maximum. If you don’t understand the concept of risk, i.e. R, then I suggest you point your browser here.

Cheers,

Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The USD/CHF is back at its 25-hour SMA which has been acting as support in recent days. Conveniently we also have a NLBL in place and I intend to take a long breach with a stop a few pips below the SMA.

Copper also near its 25-hour but it’s a lot less defined. Here the NLBL is in play for five more hours and as the current pattern is resembling a Retest Variation Long I’d be happy to take the failure (meaning a long breach).


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Cheers,





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