The End Of The Beginning

We are seeing tepid signs of buying interest but it’s not exactly convincing – at least not thus far. We need to see a lot more mojo down here as we have reached the last line of defense - a slip up here and it’ll be one long cold winter for the bulls.


That drop below the lower 100-day Bollinger should have never happened – but it’s on the books now and there will be consequences. The only remaining level of support that’s keeping us from falling off the plate is the (very much untested) lower 25-week BB and thus far it seems to be holding. Let me be clear: A drop below 1850 will open the floodgates and we most likely find ourselves at 1750 or lower.

Bottom Line: The bulls have a vested interest in holding 1850 – for below it the abyss awaits. But whether or not we bounce here – this is BAD and most likely it’s not the end of the story. To quote good ole’ Winston:

“This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning.”


Talking about falling off plate and all – here’s another recent turkey – crude. Wow – that’s a massive drop and it very much resembles what we’re seeing on the equites front. Just worse. We are now on death watch and I’m posting the LT chart for a reason. What we need here now (imagine Winston saying it) is last kiss goodbye maneuver, after which we will deploy our troops to deliver the final death knell. The Mole will be on the case here – that much you can bet on.

One measly setup waiting below for the subs – but it’s a good one ;-)

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.


Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.


Equities are still nibbling on their hourly inflection point – overnight the formation has actually improved from a technical perspective as the 25-hour 100 has caught up with the 100. So in a nutshell – be long ES above 1992 – anything below is whipsaw territory.


USD/TRY – a setup that the subs and I had our eye on. It triggered late last night and we’re off to the races! Already banked us 1R and our stop loss now moves to the break even point. Aaah – why can’t it be always that smooth? ;-)

More short term setups are awaiting you below the fold:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


See you guys later – I have some important coding duties to return to.


TARDIS Trading Techniques

It has occurred to me that the TARDIS, the spiffy multi-dimensional time machine used by the Doctor (you know Who), may prove to be a rather brilliant tool to acquiring ill-gotten gains in the markets. Why bother analyzing charts or building systems if you can just jump forward a day to see what’s going to happen, right? Of course first I’ll have to steal one and for that there is no better place than Cardiff, Wales:

Once I succeed I will of course quit the blog, get myself a shaved cat and then proceed with setting up the TARDIS Investment Trust Syndicate. Sounds evil enough and I really like the abbreviation.

Of course I’m kidding – but only about hunting down time machines. The Mole will be heading to Cardiff tomorrow morning for a martial arts seminar – definitely not for the weather as it’s butt cold over there. Unless my plane makes a detour across Malaysia I expect to be back next Tuesday – just in time to post an update. Scott (The Convict) Phillips promised to put up a post on Monday, perhaps even tomorrow. So don’t panic – the Mole’s got you covered! ;-)

So let’s talk about equities shall we? Let me start with a chart I shared with my subs this morning. And without rubbing it in may I point out that there are certain privileges to being a member here at Evil Speculator? Because that’s what you have been missing. There was a distinct divergence between the GBP/JPY and the spoos this morning and I recommended to my subs to keep a cautious eye and look for continuation lower. Well, guess what happened then?

Ooooii – that’s gotta hurt. But guess what – our daily campaign was stopped out at 1R and thus we got to lock in our profits. Now I would have loved to catch this move lower but it is what is – besides we have been squeezing an R here and another one there on the way up and the down. All of it adds up over time…

Now let’s keep in mind that we continue to see lower lows and lower highs, especially on the NQ and the NDX. The SPX is a bit more bullish but we are once again descending toward daily and weekly support – 1828 on the former and 1820ish on the latter. Unfortunately we do not have any clues or support levels in between. So if we drop through the Monday lows then we will probably pay those medium term support levels a visit.

More directional move on the NG – boy oh boy! This is turning out to be a profitable campaign! We almost – almost touched the 3R mark – it depends on how you count it. I for one am adding a tick (or pip) to the bottom and top of the previous candle – that makes one R. Given that we should be raising our stop to 4,631 today. Let’s see if she’s going to run higher – I always tell you, Mrs. Natgas is a bit of a crazy broad but once you get her going she can be a lot of fun.

AUD/USD – also not looking so shappy – almost touched the 4R mark today – how do you like them apples? But we dropped back below 3R and that means we’ll probably be closing it out. Unless of course it pushes higher EOD and closes today’s candle above 0.9425’2 – in that case move your stop there and keep it running.

And that’s all I got – obviously I won’t be taking on any further trades before next week. I hope some of you have been trading along – it’s been a wild but profitable week. And next week – next week – boy oh boy, do I have a little surprise in store for you guys. I think you are definitely going to love this one. I don’t want to give too much away but I think what Scott and I have brewed up will be a game changer for some of you system traders. More about that next week – see you all Tuesday!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


    Zero Indicator

    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?

      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...

  2. search warrant

  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Thursday Morning Briefing
    2. Muppet Time!
    3. Hurdles Ahead
    4. Elvis Has Left The Building
    5. Mad Monday Morning Briefing
    6. I Robot
    7. FEAR
    8. Falling Swords
    9. The End Of The Beginning
    10. Not Business As Usual

  4. yes we can!