Stainless_Steel_Hampster

Just found all my disqus mail is being sent to my junk folder.

I guess I do not know how to count an impulse,

Is this the count you are suggesting.

http://screencast.com/t/l09uV4x953

There are two big weekly high volume candles from last year on the S&P, one from September 2008 the other from Oktober 2008.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p96808130855&a=179011929...

High volume candles are like magnets, their prices always get tested, sooner or later.

1. The high volume candle from Oktober 2008 established a price range (839.80 - 1097.50) that was broken to the downside in March. But four weeks after the March low price went back up into the range and is staying there since 28 weeks now.

This week we reached the upper price limit of this range at 1097.50 for a test respectively a break through. The first test on Monday failed, the second test today is up in the air. But even if price is rejected again, I think market makers will likely try a bit more until selling will stop the test or price finally breaks through.

2. Above the high volume candle from Oktober 2008 there is the second one from September 2008, the price range goes from 1133.50 to 1265.12. This price range was never before tested, we simply broke it on the downside two weeks after it was established. A retest will happen one day. Why not now, when the target is so close?

I see two alternatives here:
a) Price could overshoot a bit but is eventually rejected at 1097.50 and we go down again. The rally would be over.
b) Price breaks 1097.50 to the upside and seeks to break into the next price range at 1133.50 for a test of 1265.12.

Take it with a grain of salt, I'm not an volume/Wyckhoff expert and could be completely wrong. And sorry for my poor english.

Look at the SPX upside down:
http://www.wallstreetwatchman.com/2009/10/xps-vs-spx.html
would you buy it....hell yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sometimes watching the same tame upside down helps putting things in perspective.

3 out of 4 physicians agree

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I feel that the VIX will fall to at least to 18.55 before we get a significant drop in the markets. http://screencast.com/t/p6JzMmyO

Nice eye. 18.05 is the next major market support level. It is the final bullish support...

Skål!

As per Mole - the Vix is low. Anyone buying "retirement" put positions in too-big-to-fail stocks as a black swan event out to June next year? Imagine the banks need to embrace reality by mid next year...that would be ugly

thoughts?

Only use capital that can be put at increased risk. Otherwise, this market, IMO, is just that type of opportunity. Just have to be able to live with yourself if it does not play out. Again, just my opinion here, the deck is stacked for at minimum a 10% to 20% correction and most likely a severe correction. Hedge accordingly of course and don't overthink or overtrade these types of positions. e.g. Have the faith before pulling the trigger rather than trying to find it later. Hope this helps.

I am not buying any long term put less than June, anymore.

march 2010 look fine

Possible right shoulder being formed on the 5 min. chart. One can only hope and dream, extremely stupid. Yes, I'm extremely short, so I'm can only see things confirming my conformation bias to the downside.

calm down, we're probably in b of 4

Also watching the Russell. It has hit $624 three times in the past week. Watching for a breach then backtest or failure. Wave labeling is very questionable
http://screencast.com/t/47YyfU3Iw

http://screencast.com/t/cJq9mwMA

My take on the Russell....this might not be the big turn down, but it sure could be. Russell has led in the past, likely suspect again.

Now that I see tour long term chart I have some concern that the chop since the low on the 13th may be forming an ascending triangle. This may take another week or more to resolve.

Could be, but it would have to take out that strong resistance, but I do see what you are saying also.

http://screencast.com/t/5C1Bew9wsZOh

Entire market near perfect 50% Fib, but on the other hand, whats to say with a another $500B of taxpayer money interest free to the bankstas that it cant run to 61.8%

1250...i tought i will only see that number many years from now.

[rhetorically] Can someone explain how RIMM is getting pounded over the last 5/6 sessions, while everything else is going to the moon?! RSI super weak, but not oversold. Should we break 65, next support in the upper 50s... then the gap below calls!

could that be on Android concerns?

73 on the $ here we come

and euro 154
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=D&st=2008-07-21&en=2008-09-01&id=p14665339039

might wanna revisit the RLs posted for FREE above!!

75.07 is still between here and 73, right?

Possible H&S on spx 1 min.

That's all fine and dandy... But let me know when you see something on a daily chart indicating a turn. If we are gonna see 18 in the $VIX, I'm not buying puts yet... And not for a 3 point drop either.

Skål!

I'm short term...I'll wait for your signal on LT

BTW, people shouldn't get overexcited it we revisit the opening prices, on my count it can (and most probably will) before final 5

Good luck getting people to not be excited... Every downtick now is "the start of the big one."

Come on folks...

Skål!

it should have been, didn't, so IMO not yet (and a truncation at this level doesn't convince me)

calculations and wishes go bad together

but we should be entering b of4 about now

Is anybody trading Oil today?

Thinking about getting short here...

Any thoughts? How are you currently positioned?

Long USO 41 calls , just sold 1/2 GLD calls

Cheers Anna! ;)

What is your upside target on USO?

Or when will exit your USO calls?

more volatility thougths...
vega, why are u such a whore?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/vix-options-volatility-long-plays-expire-bottom-generational-low-minyanville/index/a/25047/from/yahoo#

I mentioned BLK on Monday... Looks really lonely up here, outside of the wedge and all.... Also mentioned CNH... loving those calls. FWLT puts are performing alright for the market being up.

Skål!

First one who tells me what this means gets a gold star. Seriously, I’m pretty tired of spoon feeding you guys - and if I see another ‘Anna/Berk/Mole, do you think that…” post I am going to hurl.

Well, just so long as you're not mad about it :) .

But as always, excellent observations! Thanks for the posts and the heads up (as that was from a previous post), your posts are always appreciated!

We don't mind putting the food on the spoon, but you gotta put it in your mouth. There are a lot of variable when anyone answers a question. My default setting is with my trading principles. However, when given a specific question, I have to understand that individuals trading style before I feel comfortable answering...

Skål!

We don't mind putting the food on the spoon, but you gotta put it in your mouth.

Well said :). Thanks again for all the work, it definitely is noticed and appreciated!

Ok for you AMZN traders for tomorrow, I am leaning towards the 90/85, much less risk, and there is 30 days till Nov OPX, but still would like some input on the 95/90 from someone?

Nov 95/90 puts with a 1:2 ratio of puts short to long?

I thought of that one, Romeo with OPX still 30 days away the 90/85 has plenty of time to be right and AMZN historically moves 8-10% on earnings :)

thanks

anna - can we revisit the basics on this put spread? i am always a little confused if it is buy/sell or sell/buy... what would AMZN have to do to make the 95/90 work better than the 90/85?

Point up...good question.

Anna, are you looking for a PUT spread or CALL spread?

Thanks.

Dude have you not been listening to Mole?

Now don't jump on him I put a question out there and didn't specify whether it was a bulish or bearish position, so that was my bad. :)

Sorry hanuman Put :)

Thanks. Good to know we are on the same side. I am short AMZN (shares) for quite sometime ... and so enduring the PAIN now.

The 1086-1084 in SPX support I was looking for yesterday luckily held, now about 73% long.

Should have held onto my ISRG but I'm not complaining after locking in some profits

good job, that's what I was saying this morning. wait till the market goes lower 240 here we come :)

'Wait til the market goes lower' How long you planning on holding those honey? :-P

Skål!

hahahah i took of 1/3 holding them for a bit longer to around 240 area :) and a GM to you ;-D

Regarding the vix comments. Look at the premium on the 20 vix calls vrs puts. $20 strike puts are going for $.25 (early was cheaper). The 22.5 puts only $1 when its more in the money then that! The calls on the other hand are super high premium. $20 calls are $4.40, earlier was $4.70ish.

They are pricing in 20 not being breached and a big move up in the vix in my opinion

SInce I'm away from the office, I can do things like this. Here is a zoomed in chart of daily SPX with some TA on it. I've added labels to make it more readable and to make it in synch with what I have posted on weekends before.

http://screencast.com/t/7X3TVhDbhuJs

BIG YELLOW was my original long trend line that had an overthrow in May 2008. BIG WHITE is a new trend line without that overthrow (Lesson = no trend line is absolute and may need to be revisited from time to time).

I;ve left on my original dotted line arrows to show what I thought would happen. Right idea, wrong distances.

ULTRAVIOLET began at the SPX low around 666. The violet line below that is the bottom trend line that began at the end of July and has a number of hits. ULTRAVIOLET is forming an ending diagonal of extremely long proportions with the "CHANNEL TOP" violet line.

Look at the numbers above the last few bars. The green 9 says that a SELL setup is complete and perfected. This usually means a 1 - 4 bar retracement (which we had but only 1 bar). The purple 10, 11, 12 is part of the overlapping SELL countdown. The Setup = a trend being established. The Countdown = momentum (buyer in this case) exhaustion. It needs to reach 13 and does not have to be consecutive bars. All this says that we are getting near the end of the trail for upward movement (not that the upward movement will be small if it occurs).

Looking at the bottom graph labelled TDPressure, we can see that the line has gone below the RED signal line - meaning it is a low risk SELL. The stop for this "trade" being annulled is 1127.45 according to the TD computations.
So here are the overhead resistance points on this daily chart:

a) 50% FIB line at 1121ish
b) Top of the Channel (rising wedge) which is either yellow or violet depending on how you draws the line.
c) BIG WHITE which is the trend line from the ultimate high for SPX and includes the pop in May 2008.
d) The upper Bollinger (squiggly yellow line) which is at 1109.27 but rising each day

This says that if we do go up some more without retrace that the "top" could be anywhere from 1109 to 1127ish on the SPX.


What about the downside?
Notice that above the last price bar, there is the number "5" in blue, and the letter "C" in yellow? These are wave counts - TD wave counts - which are sequential and not nested like EW waves. This says that we have gone high enough for the TD methodology to conclude that the 5 wave or C wave have completed (they can still go higher, though).
The difference between the two is how far SPX will move down for the next wave. IF we have completed the yellow "C" then the next wave would be a yellow 1 of 5 (down sequence) and it would have to fall further than if we were about to to a blue A of ABC (within an up sequence A wave is still down).

What are TA limits to any retrace?
a) mid Bollinger (squiggly grey line) at 1066.43
b) BIG YELLOW bounce (if it is a valid trend line) at some point between 1050 - 1060
c) The ULTRAVIOLET trend line which is somewhere around 1050 and rising
d) the unlabeled lowest trend line that began in July and is at the level (more or less) of the Lower Bollinger (the lowest yellow squiggly line) around 1020ish.

This says that the next down leg would bottom somewhere between 1020 - 1060ish - realizing that it wouldn't go straight down.

There is a FIB (an imiportant one) at 1014 that will likely provide support and a bounce for any waterfall.

There are also pivots that I have left off. They have more of an intraday impact and are usually the same at any time scale (aren't fractal mathematics wonderful?).

So that is my SPX chart, and my two cents' worth. I hope that it is of some value when contrasted with the other TA and opinions around here.

I also just want to add that when I took the rise in the SPX from the bottom, and the repurchases of MBS to date, and applied the 80/20 Pareto rule, I came up with 1122 as a mathematical target for SPX. The fact that it falls in around all this TA is just coincidence - but it serves to illustrate how the human brain will look for patterns and take similarities as absolute confirmation of a postiion.

Much better to use these numbers as make /break for any inter-day trades, no?

Cheers.

Beautiful work!!! I am just starting to follow TD work and like it's application, time will tell it's accuracy

Thanks Gmak. Awesome!

DAX...held support...needs a break above 5770...
looks to be channeling...or is H&S still alive?
http://www.screencast.com/t/ywrz3Em5WAQ

Hourly VIX says SELL

Out of curiosity, how does that work on an hourly level??

Thanks.

Skål!

Look at 9-23 10-2
its a bit earlier than the daily.

let's see if we blow through VWAP here.....

SPX momentum indicator divergence

Jax,
this is the 3rd new high with negative divergences
in rsi, stochs..............

this market is schizo

schizo implies two personalities... this market has only one [points up]... :)

it's all about the F_____NG dollar. some really patient people holding
debt. perhaps US really is too big too fail, eh? it's almost as though
bears need to step aside until bond market decides to collapse. i'm sure
this is all about political leverage and stakes we know nothing
about...either way this story is not going to end well for US

manic phase, was a bit depressed from the summer of 2008 onward but switched in march

Ah, of course. So with psychoanalysis as with market predictions. Remember: timeframe is important!

a little H&S starting to form on SPY 5min?

you are bout to land... in the forbiden patern

and it's not Halloween yet? WHAT is the forbidden pattern? sounds kind of interesting.

don't talk about shampoos around here..

LOL

Head and ... well, I'm not going to say it...[beetlejuice beetlejuice beetlejuice]

I read some commentary from art cashin last night comparing this market to the bear rally that ended 11/1980. That's the last time the bullish sentiment was this high. needless to say, that ended poorly.

Lets look at the facts.
We have all the biggies reporting earnings
with better than expected results. Very Bullish.
The dollar is getting creamed. Very Bullish.
The S&P has been stuck between 1100 and 1080 for the
last 6 trading days. Not so bullish. What can come NOW and be super bullish???????????

dollar tanking yet again... similar to 2007 stock market top. Stocks topped mid October 07, but the Dollar continued down with stocks and didn't bottom until April 2008... so the dollar and the market could start selling off in tandem again at some point? That would fake out a lot of folks...
http://chartometry.com/charts/dollar5.png

Galeon's announcement of liquidating $3+ bb may have some impact on the tech stocks. TYP could be a good bet.

POMO done; a measly $1B.

What's that leave $3 bil? Bennie need to reload before he fires his last bullet.

Give him some time, and we'll be back to $ 5 to 6 bil a week for months on end. Anything short of another multiple hundred bil program and the markets will tank.

if he was a smarter man he'd take the remaining 3 bil and head for a tropical island. Hell I'd let him take the 3 bil, it would be cheaper for everybody

LOL - they are really running out of cash - doesn't seem to make a difference anymore though - just the fact that an auction is being held appears to be good enough. Are they going to start doing 100 Million auctions next? LOL

Mole, what month are you into on the SPY?

Mole, just saw your $VIX chart. Why are you saying 20 is a key level?

the 20 yard line has been a battlefield going back 10 yrs. Red zone, if you will. the VIXs Gettysburg.

Thanks Jaxon.

that's what scares me. my point 3, escape velocity...

that and nasdaq above 2150

who knows! i think they have around $3.8B left; i'd say any real POMO effect is over. the only remenants are psychological.

Geez Mole

Sitting here licking my damn POMO wounds.

Of course the count has changed.

http://screencast.com/t/Xh5QAuCQLm

zoom

http://screencast.com/t/6lFKK0dK60zx

care to reconsider? this is 4

nasdaq is cleaner to count

Mole which month are your SPY puts?

short all in
bumpy ride, but ready to take a beating like a big kid

I loaded up on some 110 Nov puts david, at 1100 G/L to us :)

i'm with you; picked up BGZ at 19.28

Mole, SHJ & Team
SHJ.. You posted "Interesting comparison from the Investment Underground free newsletter tonight:" analysis, and I am wondering just because they have this free-money, they have to take the market up only... Even TA's don't matter, fundamentals don't matter... We have money, so pump market up that's it..

spx hourly showing divergences on rsi and smi. macd is making lower high with no bullish crossover YET.

Thanks for the update Mole. There's not much to say but I think the relentless bank bullishness from Cramer - who is saying buy on dip for the next bank bull run - means nothing about the health of banks but does mean that the currently political climate suggests the GS+BB+TG is currently willing to introduce QE 2.0 and home buyer tax credit 2.0 and stimulus 2.0.

USD Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Report - today at 2 PM

spx blew thu the backtest line....my new Res range 1106-1110

FFFAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!

VIX is about to break 20. That doesn't mean anything technically but it suggests extreme euphoria. The market can snort all the coke it wants but that euphoria gets harder to sustain.

it is better not to break 20.06 - or it is 1999 all over again

With all due respect charles, could it mean complacency, rather than euphoria? Yesterday's call/put ratio was 77% according to Helene Meisler of RealMoney. I'd be more inclined to believe the market was euphoric if that particular ratio was over 1.

It also might be that with the VIX so low, put protection is extremely cheap, so why not buy some puts (along the lines of Herr Mole saying to hoard OTM long term puts!) if/when the VIX climbs, away they go.

Best,
Richard

Retail is beginning to become euphoric. They feel like they are missing out and that this is the next big thing! There appears (through no technical or empirical analysis, just listening to people) to be a lot of cash that is beginning to be deployed. Money that is currently in MM accounts is starting to move as advisers are now telling folks that they are missing out.

Mind you, I don't think it will make a lick of difference in the medium term; however, it could serve as a final push higher.

Richard, I agree--complacency reigns supreme--I would put it this way. Mr. Market is mellowed by a couple of shots of Jack Daniel but is also hitting the coke for a little "upper" buzz as well.

Yeah looking like another bubble forming.

Agreed things are euphoric across the board here... stocks, commodities, VIX etc.

Could lead to a nasty hangover!

I see 5 complete waves up on ES, looking for some sort of retrace arround here.

guys yesterday somebody pointed out usd\cad and i think it is a very good trade to the upside, it retracing now

ESI put spread Nov 110/105 for about $1.55 looks good. EDU reported earlier this week and got slammed for nearly 10%. ESI reports next week.

To reiterate upside targets if we get through 1100

1108 and Dow 10190

thanks GANN - wish the bull buyers recognized those targets... who would be buying for such minimal potential gain - oops i forgot that distribution days only work in the favor of sellers. so, gann theory is still showing Monday 19 Oct as the higher high (to be tested by not to be exceeded)?

i am shorting amzn, but dont do options

G/L on that I am leaning towards a bearish position :)

I forgot about the POMO but I did notice that Commerzbank wouldn't break support and that was plenty of hint.

That said, it still remains stuck in range and so is UYG and SRS. One of them is gonna break out eventually. :)

PS. This has been posted before but it case nobody's seen it yet:

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-the-greatest-suckers-rally-in-history-play-by-play-2009-9

Awesome read.

I've had three successful trades in a row, with DRN, DRV, and DRN playing this range. IYR can't seem to make up its mind today!

Congrats, dreadwin!

The clear ranges make it so much easier to trade this.

On another matter: 5,750 in the DAX was a significant area for the bulls and it held. But its banks still look sick to me and I strongly believe the breakout in IYR will be a breakdown.

I won't be selling my longs yet but I'm slowly rounding up the shorts.

Here we are again at the 1099 gap.

1st post here guys. given the current trend, i'm thinking that we'll top out on the s&p about the time the euro fills its early august gap to resistance at 153ish and the dollar finds support around 73.50-74. how far off am i on this?

humm, 2 or 3 things

1. they have enough cash to do todays morning action in spite of being at the end of their allowance
2.at 2b per auction these ones should be the last (unless this afternoon uncle berna decides some aditional QE is mandatory for Goldman Sachs of America... sorry, for the USA)
3. 1+2 at a fib fan line scares me a bit, have they reached escape velocity?

I'm starting to leg into shorts here...

Sold SPY at 110.

Would like to sell more above but I'm just not sure we go up before we go down but anything's possible in this market.

If you think that $3bb in POMO and QE has this impact on the market, versus $500 bb in MBS purchases still to come........

I think the focus on the POMO may be misplaced, and a coincidence.

Good thought but the timing would be curious - maybe for once I got lucky? Also, it doesn't take much cash to move this thin market - just ask any HFT.

Maybe, maybe not. There is no denying that money created and entering the financial system can be leveraged by GS et al in pursuit of asset returns. However, I wonder what is going on underneath the covers where it can't be observed until the FED B/S comes out on Thursday night for the Wed to Wed period.

Also, is it a coincidence that a very big elephant was ramping the EUR to take profits on some exotic options and ate through $250 mm of sell stops at 1.50 to get there, while at the same time ES and SPX were ramping right along with it?

I think that there is a lot going on, and that it is very easy to point to one event or activity and say that it is the main correlation and even a causation, that's all.

Cheers.

 



________________________________

Permanent Open Market Operations activities, sir!

EIA:
Distillate stockpiles fall 800,000 barrels
Gasoline inventories fall 2.3 million barrels
US crude inventories rise 1.3 million barrels

Watch them hunt stops now.

I remembered Mole. Thanks for the reminder regardless. Long time reader, first post.. Setting up a vertical put spread on IYR, I like the action over the past several weeks, failing to hit new rally highs while the overall market has.

Bought the Nov 45s @ 3.10, planning on the selling the 43s for 2.00~. I played the ISRG vertical 250/240, thanks Annamall =)

Ok next up for me is AMZN earnings out tomorrow. Any thoughts anyone on what to do?

Nov Bull call spread 100/105. I am new Hi!

i have had my eyes on that one for a few weeks, anna and don't really have a plan yet. whatever path you choose, please consider keeping your funds at risk to a comfortable level & you can't go wrong. that is where i always go wrong after a series of option trades close out in my favor.

Hey suicierats :)
Yes, I always use Risk Management, I was hoping to see someone step up with a good trade and we could talk about the pluses or minuses.
per Mister Molester

ok... I would lean toward a bearish position, but for the sake of talking pros/cons, let's look at Aliro's bull call spread 100/105 for a moment. I am still learning options strategy, so I will now give the floor to anna, who may wish to offer a put spread idea.

Excellent work suiciderats :)
me too. I am seeing a triple top on the 30 minute and the price of the stock is fairly valued.
So IMHO i think even if the numbers are decent or meet AMZN will sell off.

I am off to look for strikes right now thanks for stepping up

Anna, you ever look at ratio/backratio spreads for option plays as well?

Yes, didn't want to confuse anyone. What I usually do is start out with a spread and leg out of them to make a ratio/back spread :)
Kudos to you Romeo

Your welcome {bowing and tipping his hat.}

THANK YOU - it's sad we still have to teach basics here. Suicide - look up ATR.

Personally, my rule is to stay away from stocks reporting earnings. You never know what is going to happen. Stocks can sell off on good news or bad news.

For example, NITE is down 13% today after reporting a poorer than expected report.

Hi Unknown those are my favorite to trade...:)

bullish 105/95 spread???

Put spread ?

pardon me, i'm thinking Calls. If they pull an AAPL they could rise 6-10% i feel like. though if not, theres a nice gap @ 83.
I'm staying out. I made a stupid move yesterday with the ISRG 220 puts and IV has eaten me alive.

ok I don't know if I would go long here except on a specific stock Harvey?

Yes a spread was the only way to go to neutralize the IV. and that is going to have to drop more to really kick in, The $VIX is almost ready to go under 20!!

i hear ya Anna. rookie mistake on the Puts.
not going long here. except for holding my BIDU calls. and will hold my ISRG puts until 240 which is the low bb i think....

yes whenever you do a earnings play if you want straight calls or puts you must buy 2/3 weeks before the thugs MM"s pump up the IV. or do a spread and even the spread I did should have done better.
Bought for 335 sold for 450 (not bad) keeping 1/2

Morning Anna...email to you:-)

K :)

Take your time! Thanks:-)