ABout time for the big selloff

¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12356

Skål!

SPX:

Monday's bar was rejected by BIG YELLOW (the trend line that starts at the SPX high of 1557+ and touches again at 1080 in Sep, with May 2008 looking like an overthrow). Today's has been supported by the lower daily Bollinger and we are sitting on the lower trend line (the dotted one in my yesterday's chart) after putting a pin through the last couple of sessions.

If we don't get above big yellow on any move up, then we are likely to test the FIB at 1014. It doesn't have to happen today. BIG YELLOW is around SPX = 1050;

There is no indication of direction or trend yet from today's level., IMVHO.

EURO good spot for bounce?

http://www.screencast.com/users/nakedoptions78/folders/Jing/media/8cacb41d-5b3f-498b-ac3d-67f6207b1eb4

Can't read those charts. However:

EUR on the 3 min chart just put in a higher high off the bottom. 1.4634 is the most recent low, and the "LOD" is 1.4628;

I see s higher high and a higher low which suggests EUR is moving up in a channel.

30 min chart shows that we are bounded by 1.4670 on the top and it looks like a bearish wedge or flag forming - since the higher high was only .0001 higher. heh.

Still too early to tell about a bounce. EUR still looks range bound. There are a bunch of buy stops above 1.4670, so traders are using that as the line in the sand for movement off the bottom. Buyers are coming in at the bottom.

Need to see X close below 34.5 otherwise this is bullish consolidation ...

We are about to reverse a multi-month uptrend with a multi-month downtrend, what time frame are you looking at? I am definitely trading on days and NOTHING shorter than 60s here. But that could just be me...

Skål!

Berk - I am looking to do a swing trade too ... I cannot day trade ...

However with Nov 33 puts bought near 33.75 @ 1.45 this is also a big turn - these puts are now down 30% ... so if this goes to 36.5 - they will be worthless. If so, then rather close and re-enter on a safer entry point.

I missed the one yesterday am with you and Greg - entered on break of 34, but no confirmation ... will welcome your thoughts ...

X is definitely trending downwards. I recommend not buying options that have less than 30 days to expiration. I like short term trading, but I have been using Decembers for at least a week now. I have never done this, but you could look into rolling your puts over to next month.

Yes - that makes sense - thanks Berk / Greg ... I am watching 35.15 - 35.19 on the 10 min / 30 min /60min and this seems to be a key area ... so watching closely ...

Will welcome your inputs as we move ahead ...

It is, as evident by that gap on the 29th.

Okay... Here is some bad trading advice from me, and you will need to know where it works, and where it doesn't. I am looking for a TT. A long-term break-out, and plan to be in this trade a MINIMUM of 3 weeks.
1st) I feel you on Nov puts. That does make a big deal.
2nd) Look at your time. Not just days left in the trade, but look at what that particular equity can do in that time frame. Last 2 down moves for X dropped it 21% (11points) in 9 days. The other 27% (12points) in 18 days.

Your front months only have 17 days left, but all you need is 9 trending days to more tan capitalize on this trade. Just saying that a modest push up is to be expected and (should this be P3) can be quickly retraced. However, I have a lot of experience adding to positions like this rather than cutting them. YOU will have to make that choice for yourself, but all is not lost just because your options are down 30%.

Hang in there. And if my advice doesn't make sense, PLEASE don't follow it...

Skål!

I think I am smart enough to add to position - but ave burnt myself doing it in the past ... so trying to force myself to say, if its not working, then get out - watch for re-entry again :)

Hopefully I will get to your stage one day - hopefully soon :)

Yeah, I have done myself a bit of damage that way, but we should be on the forefront of a large trend.

Trade based upon your rules...

Skål!

I put a trailing stop on my X puts yesterday around 3ish because I had to leave and the stop was hit. 20% profit, I should have sold at LOD, I was up 50%.

Nice :) ...

Me sitting on a loss right now - purchase 1.45 .. right now at 1.17 ... 34.50 seems to be holding - what are your thoughts on this one ?

There was another 38.2 retrace for your amusement: http://screencast.com/t/t2Y1ved9 I was planning on reloading at that level, but I couldn't get to my computer in time.

1044 is a trigger point for further upside

I have an ESZ9 target of 1064 for today

http://screencast.com/t/9lfCNBgrZQcR

Silver short

10:00 AM Sept. Factory Orders: +0.9% vs. consensus of +0.8% and -0.8% last month. Ex-defense +0.7% vs. -0.7% prior. Ex-transport +0.8% vs. +0.4 prior.

But the data is from September and yesterday's ISM data showed a drop in October's orders - just to keep things in perspective.

UUP stopped right near the 50 day MA and reversed so far. But broke above downtrend line from June...

Wow - look at that spike on X - touched the 61.8% of the last move down ... moving up more .. Berk / Greg thoughts on this ?

I'm not worried about X til it gets to 36.5... Then I will pull one unit off...

Skål!

Hit the 100 MA (10 min), 200 MA (5 min) ... watching carefully ... with an entry on @ 33.9 this would not be good for my nov 33 puts

That reminds me....I have some WAT puts for November that I ought to close or roll.

Definately have been selling the rips here.

GO MA... Glad I held my shorts on that shit...

Skål!

Thought that P3 was going to be something signifigant or more violent. This sell-off seems like a slow bleeding process. Any thoughts?

It is just starting. Look at any other wave and notice that right at the top, wave 1 does a really choppy drop, before finally letting go...

Skål!

LOL - he sounds like me right before (3) of {1}.

Unless of coarse we need to see a wave 3 come into the market.

Anyone have a high price so far for the US dollar index? My futures data looks corrupted. I have a high of 77.50 for the Dec contract

It briefly hit 81.35, but then this came out:

10:35 GMT
Dollar index DXZ9: all trades above 77,50 will be cancelled by the exchange due a "fat finger" error which triggered a 6% upside spike.

Appreciate the response.
I need to move away from MF global , no such info from them

I think any Buffet related euphoria may fade today and if not, present better shorting opportunities.

After visiting the various EW sites( Alphahorn, Daneric, Kenny) I have to revise to minute wave {1} being the top count.

http://screencast.com/t/kqNxkcMz

I'm still not sure that in all other indexes, where you have "iii" could be I, and "iv" could very well be II. $INDU, is not following the same pattern, and the only bearish way to count it is a series of I-II, i-iis...

Skål!

Thanks bergs

Pre-Market warm up
The move away from risky assets continues – except for Gold. Guess we’ll have to wait for the margin calls to put pressure there. Honestly, I have no opinion on gold, and I’m not interested in it for trading.
At 7:40 AM, ES is down 9 points from Monday. This takes SPX down to 1036ish – which is just above the lower Bollinger. SPX has not breached any levels that would indicate a definite trend down, yet. The last low was 1020, which is the line in the sand for a possible trend change – and 1014 at the 62% FIB is a viable target for a bounce – given where support has been in the past for each run up. Scenarios are still valid. My surprise is that it is one of the red scenarios that seems to be in play (gun-shy bear).
ES headed south around 2AM EST, which may be the Europe open now that we’re off of DST? Support has come from the pivot at 1026.75ish..
SUMMARY:
Weakness in SPX and USD strength still have not set lower lows, so the upward channel is still intact. SPX needs to breach 1020 for the lower low to be put in, and open lower the next day (TD yadah yadah yadah) to not be considered an underthrow of some kind.

I just want to caution everyone about the TAF maturity on Thursday. This may just be coincidence, but the FED B/S only gets published (for WED) on Thursday after close – so it is very difficult to see what is happening to the financial system liquidity from the MBS program. I believe that the TAF maturity is just over $40 bb, which is nothing to sneeze at. If it is not renewed /replaced then there could be more pressure on the equity markets.

Equity
Asia is red, Europe is red. The news that RBS and Lloyds bank are to be bailed out again with $51 bb from UK taxpayers is weighing on stocks, and seems to have started a move back into USD. I would look for the TNX to fall (10 year yield index) on a simplistic level if this is the case.
The only DAX sectors that are green are Health Care and Consumer services – go figure. Health care is up over 3% with over 2/3 of the member stocks in the green.
ES pivots:
R2: 1061.75 – This seems to have been the ceiling overnight from the 29th to the 30th of October. ES was unable to punch through it then.
R1: 1050.25 - ES came up here briefly yesterday after open but got punched down rather hard
Neutral: 1038.25 – Looks like this was a floor until Europe opened. It might act as resistance now, against any rally attempt
S1: 1027 – Current floor after the Europe /UK inspired drop.
S2: 1014.75 – just coincidence that this is the same number as the SPX 62% FIB. Remember that ES is about 3 – 4 points below SPX at the present time. This is just above the last low (daily chart) on October 2nd, 2009 (at 1012). We need to get below this for a break of the upward trend. – even though we are currently below the trend line that starts at last March (2009) and was touched again in July (Same as SPX ULTRAVIOLET trend line from yesterdays SPX daily chart).

FX
USD is up about ½ cent. CAD, EUR, and GBP are down. I think that everyone is worried about the Euro-banks since they are being tarred with the same brush as the UK banks. In a crisis, all correlations go to “1”. Heh.
EUR fell at same time as ES. There is a gap from 3 – 3:30AM which might be a technical glitch. EUR continued to fall as stops were triggered at 1.4675 /80 according to ForexLive. Negative news on the UK banks seems to have affected stocks in general and the risk trade is out of favour today. A US custody bank was said to be selling EUR on the big move down. As well, a large Swiss bank is supposed to have issued a sell EUR call with target at 1.42 and stop at 1.4865 – apparently they went short at the breach of 1.4865 which might explain some of the pressure.
EUR pivots:
R2: 1.4928
R1: 1.4852 – around where the Swiss bank started going short
Neutral: 1.4769 – where the 3AM waterfall started
S1: 1.4692 – hot knife through butter on the fall. Hasn’t been support in quite a while
S2: 1.4609 - Haven’t touched this yet as some TD support indicators seem to be working to keep EUR in a 1.4666 – 1.4626 range.

If it’s not clear what I think, my opinion is that we will be going down to 1014 on the SPX (around 1010 on the ES) and then bouncing. I don’t know if it will be a little bounce to the underside of the SPX trend line that began in July 2009, or back up to test the underside of the major trend line from the March lows – but a bounce is inevitable unless there is some major financial catastrophe.
Manage your risk and use stops to protect gains.

Cheers.

P.s. Not much data today:
10AM Factory orders 0.3% exp vs -0.3% prior
17:00 ABC consumer confidence
Today sometime: Total and domestic vehicle sales

See here for more:
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

Thank you gmak. I'm always impressed by the detail, are you sure you're not German?

Beiersdorf and Fresenius were up because of earnings. BMW had them too but they did not impress. Their stock is down the most today.

UBS and other negative news cast a large shadow over the two major banks but they appear to be bottoming. The DAX looks like it's trying to bounce from here. Needs to go above 5.426 to confirm.

PS. Gold is a risky asset?

Any thoughts on if the RBS & Lloyds news was already mainly priced in?

All news is already 'priced in'. The news don't matter - ignore them.

I'm not sure how to classify gold. I just included it because it went up, even though the USD rose - suggesting that there are other forces at work for the value (at the present time) other than a "commodity" label.
I'm not German. :-) - although I love the German attention to detail, especially in engineering.
On the other hand, I don't feel that there is enough detail in what I right. I'm just trying to refine to what I think might be important to know before making any decisions. It is a work in progress. ......

Thanks for the DAX insight!

 



________________________________

It's very interesting to see gold, the dollar and the treasuries all green together. This could mean a positive change in the market direction but it could signal the beginnings of a panic.

I'll have to research this, as I don't remember too clearly, but didn't Buffet make similar moves last year - just before the market *really* started to wash out?

I don't use Buffet as an indicator. I do agree with you about Gold, USD, and treasuries - that when they move together it is the beginning of a wave of negative sentiment. The degree of "panic" would depend on the degree of leverage and where the stops are in the equity markets.




________________________________

My skills in TA are very poor, so I have to rely on observations and risk management to get an edge.

I think if this were a "positive" change of market direction, the other metals would have been up too. But in panics such metals not count in the way that gold does.

DAX remains weak, I wanted to see it break 5.426 for me to consider lightening up on my short ETF but it hasn't done that yet.

That said, I do respect the support that UYG has at $5. I won't be adding to US-shorts until it breaks that support.

Looks like the stops got swept in EUR above 1.4670.  SPX is following, can't see DAX (on a 10 min time delay). EUR will probably come back down once it hits the pivot at 1.4692; cause it's outside the Bollinger.



________________________________

DAX is trying another attempt to run to its pivot. (5375) Not getting any confirmation from the banks, though... Still, FOMC meetings are nothing to sneeze at...

Ah, decisions, decisions. :)

Buffet is just another asshole dip buyer.

That's RICH dip buyer, to you. :-)




________________________________

If my futures data is right, the $ moved from 76.5 to 77.5 in about 30 minutes starting at about 3:30 a.m. eastern.
Maybe the time the Eur bank news hit?
Gold feel about $6 during that time but rallied right back up.

TOS shows a spike to 81.345 which was later discounted as "one of those things."

I'm pretty sure the bank news were priced in as the ones I'm watching did not make any new lows.

That spike was ended by the exchange at 77.50 almost right at the 2sweeties long reversal that Mole posted yesterday

I am a buyer of this market. I think we make new highs, earnings momemtum is too strong and there is going to be a tidal wave of liquidity out of fixed income markets into equities when the Fed say they will reload on QE (which they will tomorrow). I like this site, there are some knowledgeable people on it but in the last two days everyone's been too busy jerking themselves off to do any analysis. There is a big unwind going on at the moment by some large macro funds because they got themselves in a crowded short vega position on some EMEA FX but I would not mistake it for the start of P3. If that is going to happen, Q1 next year is a better bet.

The Berkshire news may cause a rally at the open. Anybody covering shorts in the premarket? I felt confident short after seeing Asia and Europe selloff, but this news has me a little worried. Talk about propaganda garbage, WB calls this "an all-in bet on America". This is, of course, from the guy that didn't see any of the 2008 crash coming and said in Oct '08 to buy American prior to a 25% further drop in the mkt.

Michael, I can tell that reading your posts is going to benefit my ongoing English studies as well as my trading. I might finally learn how to avoid sentences that end in a preposition. Your homework sounds intriguing but I don't have a dog. I do have hamsters and they would bite me if I tried to stare at NASDAQ stocks too long.

Pleased to be of any assistance - thanks for the nice words.

LIAR

hamsters don't bite for that reason

LOL. Well, mine do. They know that I lend up losing money whenever I get tempted by unfamiliar stocks. :D

Why are you glad to be "short"??

Agreed think it is too early. Seems more like a "hiccup" in electronic markets. Price action is likely to be all as usual in days and weeks that follow. See comments over on marketdatatrader.com regarding the topic.

Anyone got any views on Shamazon? I bought a bunch of April 2010 $100 puts back when it was somewhere over $120. I felt at the time it was the most no-brainer short I had ever seen, given that yawning chasm of a gap since earnings. Looking good for tankage today.

Yeah, not really sure on this one - have been watching from the sidelines so far - could be in w4 prior to the final high on the apocryphal bounce we're all expecting (the new Godot lol) as hasn't really dropped as fast as you might expect if it had topped already. In fact quite the reverse - has been standing its ground rather steadfastly, like a lot of tech stocks you might expect to be nosediving right now such as BIDU etc.

Yeah, thats why I went out as far as April strike. I will give up some profit if the move occurs really quickly, but I have insurance & time in case theres a final push northwards. I'm up 20% so far on the position, and although it could easily reverse, I simply can't imagine that it won't fill that gap sometime between now and April.

Flight to garbage update - it would appear that, although the GBP looks to have seen its high against the greenback at roughly the same time as EURUSD topped, this - hilariously - also appears to have marked the high of *correction* EURGBP, thus putting the good old €uro precisely where in the pecking order right now??

Its kind of humourous perusing the various bear blogs this morning. Instead of joy I'm seeing fear and bewilderment, people trying to find "the news" that caused this drop, from people who were expecting that one last bounce before they really piled on the shorts.

The say the market will do whatever screws the biggest number of people, and this certainly is it. Dips buyers who believed yesterday's late rally and bears who went long expecting the 1070 range again in order to fullfill a magic rooftop pattern or whatever.

I think a huge amount of TA breaks down at turning points and only resolves itself with the benefit of hindsight.

The bears have been shocked so many times when they've tried to grab the banana (not a masturbation euphamism) that even when someone tries to hand them a piece of food they're jittery and terrified of being shocked again.

I agree that the burning of "buy the dip" folks is what needs to happen if it hasn't begun already. And in the meantime the bears will keep bailing because they're afraid of getting burned again.

+1.....abso-fucking-lutely agree. Everyone is Mentally masturbating themselves and they are getting hair on their palms.

I guess Xtrends is no longer posting their trades. WIth all the blogs I follow, seems as if everyone is expecting a pop around 1020-1025. That makes me think it may never materialize. Or maybe a small pop just to stop out shorts and trap bulls.

The problem over there is the trading "record" has led to too many people believing Attila has some sort of crystal ball, and taking his word as Gospel. Look at yesterday evenings posts where he stated with some certainty that the market would gap up 30-40 points today. Now anyone can get something wrong, and he called yesterdays turning points with stunning accuracy, but the people on that site who followed him blindly and closed out shorts have now potentially lost a ton of money from it.

Major breach in Euro/USD

http://screencast.com/t/jQUm0c8hrI

*triangle breakout down
*breach of major long term trend line
*moved out of chop zone
*next potential support in the 1.455-1.460 area.

I consider the lower green trendline weaker than the upper, since it only has two touchpoints very far back. Its the final line in the sand. The upper green line has been the main trend line guiding the rally from march lows.

Longer term view to puts things into perspective:

http://www.screencast.com/t/rtJj1M23PhtV

Gotta love the spike on /DX at 11 CET. Looks real too, has the volume to prove it.

Hmm Perhaps an explanation
10:35 GMT
Dollar index DXZ9: all trades above 77,50 will be cancelled by the exchange due a "fat finger" error which triggered a 6% upside spike.

We get those in equities too. I call them "It was just a dream, go back to bed" moments.

Thats bullshit - I made other trades based on this spike....are they cancelling those trades too....grrrr.

I agree. It's looking very good, and I'm glad to be short. On a pat-my-own-back note I'm very satisfied with my "indecision zone", which I called before we got there, and it has been working very well to help me keep a cool head over the last weeks. Hopefully my next whim will work as successfully as this one, but experience says probably not.

Why are you glad to be "short". (Assuming you are referring to being short DX)

Sorry for being unclear. I'm glad to be short in the equity market (now similar to being short euro/usd, which it what I chart). I don't trade FX, but use it as guidance.

Not EWT and more simple trends, but DXY has broken its 50 day EMA for the first time since April. I wonder could this lead to a major short covering rally in the USD.

FTSE, DOW and S&P Futures all at new overnight lows as far as I can see.

It seems a little early in the game for the Dollar carry trade to unwind, does anyone think that this is starting to happen? If it does Mole will be spot on about the Mother of all Waves Down. Errr...When it does.

Thats weird jacksoo. Australia is generally held us as an example to the rest of the world for a performing economy that has relatively speaking done very well during the crisis. Interesting to hear the real story on the ground.

its a one trick pony - China pulls back on commods and everything else is linked - tumbling chain of dominoes. one think that is conveniently ignored when quoting house prices rises is that Aus has the highest rate of multiple home ownership ion the world - for years houses have been bought as investments - sounds good when rising but flip side is when interest rates rise, employment goes up a dumping of house onto the mkt is likely.

Yeah thats the tragedy thats awaiting us. Our prices have tanked even as interest rates fell because we are completely out of sync with the Euro interest rate cycle. Unless we recover soon (unlikely), once Europe starts raising rates again, it will lead to a second catastrophic wave down in prices.

EuroUSD new low. Dow quoted 9687!!!! S&P 1030. FTSE 4997. Could be black tuesday at this stage.

as it's early morning maybe someone can take a look and say something on BPSPX...

http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-3E9B_4AEFF54F.html

my take is we're safe till 68 november 11

but... depends if it breaks lower before that date

do you ever sleep?

sometimes, just not everyday

I think your time cycles are highly speculative mate - if you move the first vertical a little to the left to match the actual low, then we could equally have a series of diminishing time periods with the current low as the next.

they are, that's why in previous charts just used i ignored then. but look at the bottom oscilator, and count up movements to top zone and throughs to bottom. That's what decided me to keep them and shares

Even going by the oscillator you should move the first to the left... one to watch I guess.

no can do, it's a truncated 5, that's the bottom go to stockcharts and do $BPSPX 3 years 11 months 30 days, then check the details left out of the jpg, by the form you'll agree (I think, but DO CHECK and give your opinion, i'm not selling anything, I want critics and improvements.. btw some of the trendlines are speculative and though with 3 points aprox.3 points are reachable through other competing lows)

use MA 13 please check how often it does (not) give false reversion (very few indeed)

and thanks for looking into this

EMA13 seems to work well, aye. And you are doing EW count on bpspx? Sorry it's still a bit early for me lol.

patern counts, and sometimes cross-counting with EW on spx

still crude an hypothetical

p.s and yes ma13 looked good, short enough to be useful, consistent on confirmed signal
most of the time

Incidentally, is everyone seeing the same thing I'm seeing. i.e. a BIG gap down this am? I know theres normally a recovery from the futures prices to the open but I'm seeing 70+ Dow points and 10 S&P points at this stage?

hi CC - whats happened to house prices out there? Visited about 5 yrs back and was astounded at the prices - seemed everything was a 1m euro!

Major tankage. Officially prices have fallen by around 30% from the peak, but of course there are massive variations in different price brackets, with some high end stuff having fallen 50%+. And it isn't over.

Incidentally, the USD is absolutely tearing it up this morning. I'm currently seeing DOW Spreadbet at 9707 and S&P at 1033. FTSE is about to go below the psychological 5k level shortly (although the brits never bothered with the hats :) ) CAC off 2%, DAX off 1.6%.

Must be a lot of people underwater over there. Currently short from 1035 so
watching things closely.

Yeah prices officially back to 2003 levels so anyone buying in the intervening period in negative equity. We don't have the US system here either where if you go bankrupt you can wipe the slate so people just hand the keys back to the bank and suffer a 5 year bad credit score. Debt follows you for life here technically.

Luckily for me Australia is immune to the worldwide housing collapse -
houses still rising at a record clip over here. I think the reality is that
Aus is about a year or behind on these things - I think they're blind to the
coming wave.

if you're a homeowner, sell and rent something

Gotta be joking mate - I was being cynical - haven't owned a house for
several years - pulled out of buying in 2005 seeing what was coming - they
just don't believe it here yet - but they will!

sometimes people re sentimental/irrational with their houses

p.s. did you take a look on bpspx?

Whats it showing - have you tgt downside for today? Thru 1015 wd be good.

no direct correlation, just a some bulish index "danger zones" for inversions

but I would say the 1019 low must be taken out ASAP, in nasdaq it's a gonner since last week

... or people don't know the law (not sure about ireland, but other european countries have personal bankrupcy, you give all you have in a court procedure, including salary, the judge says how mch you keep for surviving and... years latter you're clean)

No here in Ireland our law is different. Technically your personal debts follow you to the grave and your estate. The only saviour here at the moment for people is that there are SO MANY people in the situation that the banks can't pursue everyone.

thank god for small mercies

+1 for Depeche Mode Quote...

a blasphemous rumours fan? Love the lyrics though Some great reward was still a bit sub-par

p.s. involuntary quote, but yes, I'm a fan from their very beggining (though best phase would be Black Celebration Music for the Masses and Violator). Saw them in concert when they toured songs of faith and devotion, had tickets to see them again this year ... 2 days before the concert dave blew his foot)

Was worried that you wouldn't get it.. board is filled with pups, would have been lost on V-8...

And yes I love me some Black Celebration although it isn't as good as I remember it in retrospect but The Queen is Dead is.

and if a double decker bus, crashes into us
to die by your side
is such an heavenly way to die

but that light coughed himself off stage the other day.

they're old, we're old

p.s. this might also be a non reference for our americn friends, too indy/brit

yeah he's ok now apparently. read about it in the paper - apparently the doctor told him not to smile - mozza's somewhat predictable answer: "I don't"

lol

did he ever?

you are absolutely right, this is fraud at its best and I am waiting for the climax when the IRS sends some inquiry letters to them to look into these public records, I haven´t taken the time to go over the small print on their web site if it says that this is all hypothetical trades,posts etc.
Btw the big pop up Attila was mentioning 100x yesterday...... where is it ??? I cannot see it .... we are trading 1032

Greetings from collapsing Ireland folks. Not a day goes by at this stage without some new revelation about how fucked we are. The way things are going, when I can finally afford my Ferrari in the New Year, I'm going to be afraid to buy it for fear of being lynched. Unions here are calling for a 65% marginal rate of tax to sort out our problems. Major brain damage.

Anyway, a quick scan of all my favourite blogs (here, Kennys, Danerics, Xtrends (for commentary) etc etc etc) again shows a very large number of bears in the US, who have been conditioned to expect dip buying, who went to bed expecting a significant pop today and in some cases a massive gap up to like 1070.

I'm not seeing it, and so far it looks like they will be disappointed when their alarm clocks go off, as Europe doesn't agree, with the FTSE, CAC and DAX all down 1.5%. The huge amount of volatility and intra day reversals of the last few weeks screams top to me. Given the late day recovery (which almost seemed like a victory for the bulls), I can see where people are coming from, but lets put it in context. We recovered a mere 70 points from a 250 point drop. Big deal. But I have been dramatically wrong in the past, and the general concensus seems to be we need one last pop before we plunge.

I'm not sure if we get it; so I stick with my short-LTBH strategy, and if we do get it, I will add more to my short position..........I just hope that those who are predicting it have the balls to put their money where there mouth is if it happens:)

Perception is very interesting in trading. I am extremely interested in the general lack of fear among the mainstream about where we are right now (no matter what the vix reading is, that doesn't reflect mainstream thought). There is this perception that this is a raging bull market, and that the market has been on a tear for the last few weeks, with the green shoots and the recession being over and everything.

Interestingly, the S&P on my screen is trading at 1036......levels it hit back in August. The Dow is trading at 9730, where it was back in early september. In other words, the majors have spent the guts of 2 months going nowhere. Its a bit like everyone heralding 10k, until people remind them that we hit 10k in 1999 or whatever........the general perception never matches reality.

And yet bears everywhere are terrified of the market!!!! A market that has gone nowhere in 2 months.

In my opinion, this is due to the large number of people who are trying to trade every swing, and getting caught out on both sides, creating a short-termism that Market Makers thrive on. We need some strong hands on the short side!!!!!!

Having my ancestors hailing from Ireland, I hate to hear what is going on there and I feel this shitty, corrupt government we have here helped cause your problems.

My advice is to stay away from xTrends. Read below. Many of us think something is VERY fishy there. I questioned them and I was banned in August.

Steve

Steve

I do nothing based on what xtrends say. I just like to canvas their commentary page as part of my overall sentiment barometer for the blogosphere.

And don't feel bad about your own governments effect on Ireland. Yes it has had an effect, but we were a disaster waiting to happen, and we fucked things up good and proper ourselves, thats the long and short of it.

EURUSD :

We seem to be finishing a wave 2/B triangle, and bounce in a 3rd or C today.

The bearish option is that this move could be a B/X wave and we should start a new down move soon equal 1.5060-1.4680 soon.

http://www.screencast.com/t/3IyIir03q

good ,because yesterday was the final straw of taking the mickey out of people > 3 trades he posted were supposedly executed at the exact high or low tick but verifying times and sales the total trades did not match his trade volume.
I trade between 10 and 100 lots in the e-minies and dozens of times over the years when a trade goes bad and I got stopped out I get slippage which means my stop gets executed partially at a worst price but with SOL´s trades he seems to manage to execute a stop for 800 to 1700 lots at his exact price which I can tell you for sure is B.S.
I would bet 100,000 USD of my money that his trades are hypothetical and this is a bad joke in selfmarketing.
Go to http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/ and look under Scams of the week for another proof what I have been pointing out above

I nailed xTrends 2 months ago on bullhsit as it looked to me like something was changed and I said their site was bullshit, they were not trading what they said they were, and they were frauds.

They banned me, but a few peopls stood up and said even with the loss he had taken he was still ug $1.3 million in August.

Exercising common sense, I had peviously asked why someeone up over $3 million, allegedly, on the year was posting trades for free. That I told them I did this professionally long enough to know it was bullshit ddidn't matter. Like with Obama, they want to believe.

90%+ have to lose somewhere.

Steve

agree - visited the site for a while but then caught Atilla adjusting posts and detail therein. A case of refashioning his comments/pricing to make them look better. Enough to make me throw in the towel. Don't know what's going on over there but very fishy.

Same point of view here....their latest profit chart is absurd. I followed enough to know there were some little white lies.

Still...I do like some of the unique material that Attila does come up with. Total credit charts -- for one example.

it is kind of sad that there is always a scam going on somewhere.
But I have to tell you what always gets me is how easy the general public can be fooled. After reading http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/ Scams and cons by accident and looking at his stop executions it is realy not that hard to put 1 and 1 together.

http://screencast.com/t/8RqhvaaDdyFI

Big trendlines on the Euro

thanks

Sweet short so far, had silver shorted too...

hamster rants... on $SPX:$GOLD

yesterday I discussed 0.97

it was today's low

it bounced, but close at 0.98 (below friday's 0.99)

no decision yet... but holding

Sol announces "I will have to make two important changes that will affect me and xTrends. First of all, I will make a transition from SP e-minis to more homogen SP futures - big contract to reduce slippage errors.

"Secondly I will stop posting my trades publicly. However, it doesn't mean I am gone, I will post my thoughts frequently.

"It has been pleasure and fun, I wish all xTrenders best of luck with their trading."

http://www.xtrenders.com/2009/11/beat-goes-on.html

go and take a look at http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/, under SCAMS and cons. This boy nailed it.
I daytrade 10 - 100 e-minis and over the years dozens of times when a trade goes bad and my stop gets hit I receive slippage , mostly 0.25 to 0.50 points , SOL on the other hand seems to manage that his stops of 800 to 1700 lots get always executed at his exact stop price which is nonsense and typical for simulated trading.
Further to that I noticed yesterday on three of his published so called trades he bought or sold the exact high or low tick... well you might say he got lucky 3 times ... hypothetical yes but unfortunately when I looked at times and sales
the volume at these ticks/prices did not match with the trade volume he claims to be putting on.
I can guarantee you that this is a hoax ,a bad self marketing strategy and nothing more than simulated trading in a hypothetical account and btw. I have read that some folks have filled out some claim forms for the IRS to look into these records. We will see how this will end but I have a feeling not good.

But then again, those trades were posted real time.

"Unless the market is in a historically low volatility period (not the case just now), try to move with the market - as opposed to predicting what’s coming next. The more volatile a market, the more behind one should trade"

can't agree more, even i feel a bit strange, when volatility was low the herd seems to be Wrong (bears rallies, dumb money at the top), now when volatility is getting higher the herd seems to be Right (real bears P3 to abyss)

How 'bout PALM.

Ok, somebody try this link please.. first attempt at chart links on evils site. Everybody has a take on the all mighty dollar nowadays. So, here is a linear regression and LR slope study. Day chart on DXY back to last year and a zoom on recent activity.. using HA candles to show the trend. Note (a) the decreasing rate of change in slope (bottom inset), makes a nice wedge suggesting a resolution soon. We recently exceeded the previous peak in rate of change in slope to the upside (to be expected if the trend had begun to change so that a new trend higher might occur. And (b), that waves are generally pretty regular AND the current wave is beginning to turn over. So, I'm expecting a dollar decline over the next couple of days AND will be looking for a higher low on the linear regression slope bottom wave to confirm a real trend change.

here's the link http://www.flickr.com/photos/43172816@N08/

pls advise if the links afu. thxs.

Really am running out of battery and doubt I can use a chinese machine here, so going to read.

Newer issues make the better 2ndary opps, btw
...that be a hint

best 4now

Baidu Inc. is a guess for a secondary offering. Personally watching the cliff tho and expecting the worst for all asset classes.

Not BIDU

http://screencast.com/t/6ecUaRDDJXG

Russell futures short.

Prepare yourself for what is likely to be the fund-manager chasing, overly cautious treasury bond holder dumping, raging rally to close 2009.

Long gold
Long financials
Long nat gas

What tools did you use to arrive at these conclusions?

This silver short is working out....
I find it tough to bet against gold, but silver is the ugly red-headed step child (my apologies to all the ugly red headed step children out there).

http://screencast.com/t/ZMYeWpgLYBvt

hmmm I wonder if it's gold breaking out, that leads the way

it's the year of the ox, metals are strong.

AHHAHAHHA The'll call it "The Secular Gold Bull Market" and treat it like it's some kind of outsider ! scorn and disdain for the losses it causes & the people who hold it.

it was in 2006...

mmm a 20% up move , the same as the rest of the market has been doing, but ya know, in gold.

after the last 80% move up was .... another 80% move up.

sound like 2k and ounce to me. maybe a few months to complete the whole move?

i wouldn't even know how to really profit from it! ive got a few shares LOL!

takes time beyond 1300 it would be shorted as hell

i'd like to see the ATR above .02 : http://screencast.com/t/EHzJGdOs9lVJ

any reason in particular for 0.2?

What if I have cats?

http://www.screencast.com/t/nCzeWthMO

golden red persian