Back Pocket Leadership List of Longs

I’ve recently worked my way to the short side of the ship, which means firing from a stern bow now. The best move, I have learned in this bloodthirsty state, is to update my eligible list of go-to growth longs.

Why do such a thing? The market’s going straight to hell in a wall mart e-tail basket, right?

Oh most certainly. Perhaps.

Michael Davey here…

And I do love the Thanksgiving week. I’m endlessly thankful when I can trade so easily. Monday and Tuesday have a decent tendency to sell, while Wednesday and then Friday’s half-session love to quietly lull higher; so much that by an hour into Friday I’m by then focused on other lusts, but still somehow making money.

Click on the upper left of the graphic above (the other left) and you see the top-50 of IBD’s updated industry group rankings (50 out of 197 total industry groups; roughly the top 25%). I’ll get into this more elaborately another time (if I’m not lost at sea), but briefly for now, I hunt for longs focused on the highest ranking groups, as well as those rapidly increasing in score. I throw out several groups because they have too few stocks, or they publish newspapers or something like that. So in fact three out of the top four groups at the moment are not of interest to me (this graphic does not show the number of stocks in each group, unfortunately, but textiles and housewares have only four names each in the group).

Noting the highest scoring groups is easy enough, while the following have been rapidly increasing in relative strength (RS):

Apparel-Shoes
Cosmetics/Personal Care
Pollution Control-Equip
Energy-Other

One thing I can say is that I wake up to a lot less names on my long-book gapping-down dramatically, by buying only highly-ranked groups. I tend also to avoid a high-ranked group which is dropping rapidly in score (current ex: Banks-Foreign). I should further note, I generally do not short from the higher ranking groups, especially not from a group rapidly rising in RS. More on all of this later.

Back-pocket pantry list of leadership longs for the upcoming holiday week:

Pollution Control-Equip:
DGW
RINO
HEAT
INSU
DCI

Auto/Truck Equip and Truck Parts (combined):
CAAS
CYD
TXIC
GNTX
AXL
OSK

Cosmetics/Personal Care:
REV
NUS
MED
NTY
BARE
EL

Computer-Data Storage:
CML
NTAP
WDC
QTM (near penny-stock)

Computer Sftwr-Enterprise:

ASIA
JDAS
TLEO (>20.25 2ndary pr)
IBIX
RNOW
CVLT
CTFO
ININ
CRM
SLH

Paper & Paper Products:
SWM
CLW
TIN

Energy-Other:
TSL
CSIQ
YGE
APWR
WLT
MEE

Machinery-Construction/Mining:
BUCY
JOYG

Chemicals-Specialty:
NEU
LZ
OMN

Retail Clothing and Apparel-Shoes & Related (combined):
DBRN
SMRT
CHS
SHOO
CTRN
GES
URBN
SKX

Leisure Svcs:
NFLX
CTRP
PCLN
WYN
EXPE

Leisure-Hotels & Motels:
HMIN
H (new ipo)
SVN (new ipo)

Misc (very strong, but from medium-ranked groups):
LFT
DEER (chinese ipo)
HOLI
SXCI

Note: Several of the above stocks are currently extended. The list is not for buy set-ups here and now, but my list of eligible names (and I recommended nothing just now, except reading all of the disclaimer texts on the site). A strong slice down on an extended leader is often a good entry. I break the names into their respective groups because on a given day I prefer to judge the leading and lagging groups for that session and shop then accordingly (cruising my individual names from that day’s leading groups and avoiding that days worst declining groups; although sometimes I may buy a leading group, which is lagging on a given day, nearer to the close of trading). Finally, I left out the Metals-Gold/Silver group, which is again increasing rapidly in rank. I will try to post the (long) list of eligible miners, should I find myself buying in this group (I am avoiding for now due to the potential firming of the Dollar).

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 22nd, 2009 at 2:21 pm and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • standard_and_poor
    Hedged longs are is slightly green this morning, I'm selling off some longs and adding TZA (short etf). Open was stronger than expected.
  • gmak
    NEW POST
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  • raised_by_wolves
    Michael, if that's you on the boat, I must congratulate you on two beautiful catches.
  • Morning one and all.

    See there is a bit of northerly movement today. Just been looking at EURUSD, which seems to be a bit of a focus - EW count from friday still in play and signals that bull flag may not be valid here - we may be completing wave (b) here, so watch for a possible sharp reversal shy of 1.50...

    http://screencast.com/t/YjJhNzBmO

    If we go through that then, watch out for new highs, but at the end of the day, all we still have are lower highs and lower lows...
  • elliott_surfs
    This made me chuckle.
    "NY Times to Goldman Sachs: Pay up to cut public debt"
    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTR...
  • bobthehorse
    I would sell at 1107 ESZ9, not before.
  • jacksoo
    why bob - based on EW target?
  • bobthehorse
    No, I don't use EW at an intra-day level. I have found it to be too much mental masturbation as Mole would say. More useful to understand what wave you are in on the big picture though as that often defines trading style. All I can say is that 1107 is where a number of things I use come into alignment.

    The less likely scenario is that we come back from right here, i.e. 1100/01 but I think we go to 1107 ahead of US cash open and I will sell it there. If we did come back from here, I would not get excited until we broke Fridays low.

    My positioning is still flat delta with some Dec 1050 puts which I added to on Friday. Am actually up today as some of my stocks behaving very well. I would move delta to small negative at 1107, otherwise happy to just sit on the puts.
  • jacksoo
    Thx for the response - I'm long with tgt 1104.25 - never like to hang around
    too long. What do you expect from 1107?
  • bobthehorse
    If this market is going to correct, we should get a reaction - will that turn into a flowing move? Who knows? I never expect anything - but whatever occurs should tell us something about the structure of this market. So far we have had nothing but the very merest sign of weakness - not enough to suggest this bull run is over. Nothing like. Clearly if we blow though that level, it tells us something as well!
  • bobthehorse
    Why the panic? We are slap bang in the middle of last weeks range. Totally meaningless really.
  • PRSGuitars
    Disconcerting to see ES hit S2 regular pivot overnight on a Monday with volume and EUR breaking upwards out of consolidation. Not what I like with my coffee to start a week...
  • AudioTactics
    Anybody have any further info on this pop in the futures?
  • Seems like EUR/USD accounts for all of it.
  • Looks like it's the weak dollar strong equities, commodities etc, Looks like Fed gov Bullard repeated statements from 3 or 4 days ago which helped to weaken dollar...other than that can't see any more specific news..I guess bulls felt markets had corrected enough!!
  • Yep Europe looking pretty strong Dax bumping up near some resistance 5760 ish..see if it gets legs above that..if so then bears won't be looking good...Is this the THANKSGIVING rally?? AND/OR the start of the traditional Santa rally???
  • PRSGuitars
    For the record, I've not seen a futures run like this on volume in some time. Could be frontrunning a news event (eek).
  • PRSGuitars
    (to jacksoo, as well as others) Personally I'd be taking a EUR futures short here on a 15min/1hr BB reversion setup, however, a) we broke that descending trendline, kind of scary b) just before 4am EST on a huge futures runup, seems fishy (news pre-empt by futures buyers) c) if you get caught in a breakdown/breakout like what I suspect could occur, it'd career-ending - in the sense the burn can be so bad you'll never want to hold futures through news or time pivots ever again.

    Believe me, once I held a /6e position short through unemployment #s. Woooo. That's not gonna be one i forget any time soon. Popped and filled me way outside what EUR even traded at (since the mkt stop I had was on /6e, not contingent on EUR's price -- my stop would've held, coincidentally, but oh well) for a nice 45 pip loss on futures... sigh. Like I said, not one to forget.
  • PRS, You're talking to a high volume rally but I'm not seeing significant volumes when I compare that agains the rally that we saw about a week ago......definitley lighter than then......

    Unless my data's note reliable.
  • jacksoo
    yeah - europe pushing 2% up - strong P{MI data from Germany.
  • PRSGuitars
    Seriously, WHERE IS EVERYONE?!
  • tradejane
    I looked at the charts, made sure my stops were in place and went to do something else. Staying around would have tempted me to stray from my trading plan and I don't see any particular reason to do that, yet.
  • jacksoo
    you're not alone PRS - -just trying to figure out a count on ES - -certainly looks strong during globex and last hour vol is pretty good.
  • PRSGuitars
    Might be frontrunning mutual fund monday (aka, monday). Looks to me like DX @ continuous VWAP from last week + EUR @ major flag trendline (descending) so, might be good for an ES drop back towards 1095.

    The volume is disconcerting however, after the DX busted trade on friday it seemed well set in stone we weren't going much lower.

    Charts from earlier:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZGFjZTU4ZD
    http://screencast.com/t/OGRmYjRkMj
    http://screencast.com/t/ZGMwNzk2
  • rosocecasita
    Mole, what did you think about red for the t-shirt?
  • PRSGuitars
    EUR intraday 133 for all you traders (I know you're out there!) -- http://screencast.com/t/OGRmYjRkMj

    This should be mandatory issue for anyone trying to trade standard channels... I've simply begun sticking 133's on my channels by default in case one appears without my intent, even.
  • PRSGuitars
    /DX view (channel glory) -- http://screencast.com/t/ZGMwNzk2
  • standard_and_poor
  • standard_and_poor
    Good night rats, nice post CD.
  • yudhisthira
    Should be good place to repurchase TZA if this ramp continues into morning.
  • Where is everyone??
  • was sleeping boss ;-)
  • lining up for wall mart black friday sale
  • standard_and_poor
    Some of those stocks are forming long term cup patterns with the handle on its
    way perhaps (wave 2). Look at BONT ( nice breakout already).
  • Scoops
    Watching the Sunday night ramp job.
  • PRSGuitars
    Going to be posting charts as they come here tonight -- first up, EUR/USD as it relates to DX. What the hell is going on with this DX spikes that get cancelled? EUR is holding it's main trendline -- and tested it (successfully) twice, once on November 2nd -- first DX trade bust day -- and once on Friday -- second DX trade bust day.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZGFjZTU4ZD

    Thoughts?
  • rosocecasita
    ZG is at break out ... does volume confirm?
  • Jiny
    Mike, thanks for Great post. I am saving the post so I can go over the list. I can not believe you cover so many sectors.
  • ClutchShorter
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15105.html

    Interesting read about the trillions of dollars in derivative that large financial institutions hold and Goldman's net short positions to anticipate a collapse of the derivative markets.
  • Guest
  • [removed by poster]
  • Guest
  • Guest
  • I'm not in the picture, no
  • Chew on that a bit. I'm leaving for several hours now for softball and hardlunch.
    MD/CD
  • kanur
    Thanks for the post. Enjoy yerself now. We'll be chillin' here.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NkgiFHEm0Y&feat...
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