Living Inside a Broken Clock: Friday, Dec. 18, 2009.

by gmak

Banks are walking away from their own real estate, all the while they quote the moral higher ground to homeowners deep under water.  Bernanke is re-confirmed because there really isn’t anyone better to do the job!? The shrinking US Trade Deficit, while good for the USD, means that there are fewer FRNs out in the world with which to buy Treasuries. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

EQUITY

The world was red, and for some reason Europe decided it should be green.  German business confidence rose to the highest leel in 17 months in December – even as the European current account stayed in deficit (current account includes the trade account) at -4.6 bb vs -2.3 bb expected. PPI was subdued at 0.1% MoM for Germany.  Oddly enough Consumer Staples and Financials are shunned today in the DAX. But still the DAX is keeping close to that target of 5900.

SPX closed the gap from Dec 10th, yesterday, and didn’t bounce into the close. Today is OPEX and the behaviour will not make sense (well, more so than all the other days of the market). I would suggest strength in the early going, on OPEX and Europe, followed by fading into the close as traders square positions for the weekend and the shortened trading week coming up.

At some point SPX will reach 1086, again. There are no guarantees. It could bounce from there yet one more time, in a shorter echo loop. It could fall through to test the trend line “Since Aug 17″ or even “Since Oct 2nd”, or even the last low a t SPX = 1029.38. There are lots of levels for dip buyers to justify coming in, lots of levels screening stops, lots of levels to be broken.  TD thinks that the most important level on the daily chart is that RED dashed line just above the ”Since Oct 2nd” trend line. Going through that early in a setup count (1 to 9 consecutive bars) usually means more downside. Going through late in a setup count usually means a reversal coming.

 

ES has been climbing with a megaphone like pattern = widening channel, since the lock up. ES has run into lots of TD resistance at around 1102 (see all the dashed lines?) and pushed back down. Notice that ES is passing over the red dashed line at around 1092 early in the setup count (green numbers 1 and 2). This usually means more downside – but first the pivot at 1097 needs to be broken.

  • R2: 1113 = Not very likely today without a bullish miracle
  • R1: 1103.75 = just out of reach. Lots of sellers coming in around 1102 – and TD is hi-lighting tecnical resistance here.
  • Neutral: 1097 = current support that would probably be broken if this were regular trading hours – but can push ES around due to the quite low volumes even for this time.
  • S1: 1088 = Below where ES has been for the last 2 weeks
  • S2: 1081.50 =  Equivalent to SPX = 1086 and the dashed green line on the SPX daily chart. A point of reckoning. Abandon hope all ye who enter here. etc.

I don’t trade OPEX because it is too Alice through the Looking Glass for me. (Now that’s another good title for a post = Through the Looking Glass). However, I will say that a long scalp here at ES = 1097.50ish with stop below the low at 1096.50 on ESH0 seems like a good risk/reward with a target around 1101 – 1102.

FX

The USD teeter-totter is down today. But, the daily chart shows that an important level has been reached and some consolidation is in order. Notice that DXY is fighting over the 23.6% FIB from the most recent high and low. The dashed green line says that DXY is likely to retrace since the setup count got there at too high a number. Plus, TD Pressure at the bottom of the charts shows that it is coming down from overbought. Wave A of ABC (down sequence) could be in. Wave B needs to be down. What else can I say? Just that the usual DXY / SPX correlations may not hold – they have been spotty lately so don’t bet the house on this. All the TD green dashed lines show important levels to be breached to ensure that the upward trend continues.  I’ve also drawn the FIBS.

The EUR tried to move off its recent bottom but has run into strong resistance at the neutral pivot at 1.4393.  Nice little “M” pattern forming on the 30 min chart. Local Low was 1.4307, and it seems to have held a number of times since yesterday noon. It might be a good level for a long scalp on a bounce, or an indicator to go short EUR if breached decisively.

 

NEWS

DATA

FED B/S expanded by $50 bb but the reserves of Banks with the Reserve also decrased by $30 bb giving a net boost of $80 bb to the financial system. It must have been used to buy the short-term Tbills offered because the other markets sure didn’t puff up. I can’t emphasize enough the significance of the declining USD Trade Defiict and how it foreshadows rising interest rates in the US.

Cheers.

This entry was posted on Friday, December 18th, 2009 at 8:55 am and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
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  • Rightside_ot_trade
    CENX hit $15 previous high from Nov 2008, shorting here.
  • NOW CENX has the hamster's full blessing (though tomorrow you can have a marginal high and same in a week) BUT it's a 25% drop as safe as can be and probably 40% drop or more

    EDIT I mean in real terms, if gold goes up 25% it can stay the same nominaly, just a warning
  • Rightside_ot_trade
    Thanks alloyed hamster, low risk, potential high reward, what a concept
  • the BX long from mole seems good as well and that way you'd be a bit hedged
  • Rightside_ot_trade
    Agree, I am looking for another short term long since I exited & took profits on one Wednesday.
  • if you find any and want a "rodent bands" opinion feel free to ask
  • I grabbed CENX yesterday - I thought there was a chance to hit that high and my stop is way past that (make my day MMs).
  • Hey, today it bounced down from the 104,2.618, yesterday it hadn't ;-)
  • amokta
    It will be lonely this christmas, without P3 - are we there yet?
    Anyway, my dec10 puts seem to have gained some value!
  • centerline
    VIX working it's magic.
  • Mantaray1265
    A special hi to Mole from me, I'm a new guy here but I just wanted to say thanks for the beautiful charts on the 14th of Dec. I chose CAL, DAL and DUK to short, and they are all doing just fine:)
  • Hey guys :)
    RIMM an excellent shorting opportunity, if you bought the 70 put this am. for .18 it is now at rimm
    now at .95!!
    G/L to all
  • anna, sorry but RIMM looks good for 8% rebound

    EDIT nd if it breaks up then its a prety 50% up
  • I am short the stock the gap will fill sometime soon I sold at 71.75
  • if gold holds constant i expect rimm to get to 74 and then decide if it goes down or continues to 100

    check the BBs I mentioned for [stock]:$gold
  • hahahah you're smoking something Ham :))))

    no way ....let's bet ok
  • look, WHEN it breaks it's going to 55 easy (with gold at 1100, basicaly .049 ounces) and then it can slide down the BB

    BUT it's way too soon, it, sliding up the 13 BB

    I know you'll be a fair sport and tell me if it goes to 74 (.068 ounces) soon



    ;-)

    p.s. if it breaks .069 go long for a safe 15 handles
  • hahah sure I will, I bet you a hamster sandwich :)
  • just for kudos will do ;-)

    p.s. DO check the hamster and gerbil BBs, they are fine tools
  • gmak
    Obama was snubbed by Premier Wen (China) who was absent from the closed door meeting with other world leaders. It's still uncertain if he was sitting in an airport with the Bank CEOs snickering at the other end of a conference call.

    China is miffed at the US's stance on cutting greenhouse gases.
  • @torbjornrive
    XLE is falling out of one of the most perfect H&Ss I have seen in a while.
    Probably thanks to XOM.
  • texpresso
    literally all of my telcom specs moved 100K to 500K shares at 9:31, who does that that? one fund?
  • gmak
    ECB said that Euro-banks may have to take another E$187 bb in write-downs. MIght explain the EUR weakness - just one more straw on top of Greece.
  • gmak
    Note that ESH0 is still above the trend line from AJuly 2009 on a daily chart. Getting near the level where one would expect a bounce, no? Today's trend line is around 1086.75 - which means around 1091ish for SPX, I believe.
  • gmak

    maybe you've seen this before but i just noticed that
    in addition to the rectangle
    ESZ, ESH, and ES globex are ascending triangles or rising wedges

    today, we broke the triangles/wedges on all three charts
    http://screencast.com/t/MDAyOWUwMj

    can anyone else sanity check this?
  • Hey guys - check out BCR - I just closed out my puts :-)
  • Carl V
    Yeah, great call! What was the signal you used to anticipate this?? EW count or secret indicator?
  • perfect timing for a safe close bb 13 and bb 104 lower bb at 1,618

    can slide but can unhook, that's a safe short as I have seen

    BRAVO

    p.s. if it retests lows it can be a fun "slide" short for another 10%,
  • shortcover
    got a friend who does covered calls on that one...nice to see it tank today and what a move first 30 min of trade. usually this one is a good buy/write steady play.
  • Rightside_ot_trade
    And JPM just upgraded them on the 15th to a target range of $85-$100, isn't that special...
  • Nightwind
    great call....
  • elliott_surfs
    ES - smack dab against the support line from march 09 right now. let's deeeestroy that bugger
  • Carl V
    Brave ES on its way to test 1080 area again...
  • Schwerepunkt
    I think I need to move to Europe. Trading hours are so much better. Getting annoyed with missing the overnight action, which seems to be driving everything.
  • Don't - the weather sucks. Unless you are close to the Mediterranean.
  • CorporalCarrot
    lol except when you get here, you regret missing japanese hours, so you move to japan, then regret missing US hours, then you move to europe, then.......

    ‹^› ‹(•¿•)› ‹^›
  • I think CC needs to get a Blackbird.
  • Schwerepunkt
    Hehe. Maybe, but I'd rather be trading from Porto Fino or the Amalfi Coast than frigid Ontario. ;-)
  • amokta
    Ok, is it too late to get on the Gold-shorting Band wagon-wheel?
  • wait too late, 1030 asks for a retrace before
  • Nightwind
    USD is a beast..., this maybe our preview of how a P3 unfolds....., relentless selling.
  • texpresso
    got good vol on my spec longs yesterday EOD, but B/A was mostly A. seeing no vol today, most near or below sh term lows, as soon as everything gets low enough to shake out the losers it will pop
  • I_got_Prechterized
    How fitting would it be if the market just tanked here in Dec? Everybody expected the traditional Oct and Nov crisis which never materialized. And now nobody expects a Dec fall. Afterall, Dec is home to the infamous Santa Claus rally. Almost all the Elliot Wavers are expecting another push higher before the drop. Another great reason for them to start it now. Hardly anybody is positioned for it. I'm just sitting waiting for confirmation with a big UUP position and a small IYR put position.
  • hey, I said long ago I'm waiting for a Xmas bottom for this phase (and probable may bottom for the real thing)
  • CorporalCarrot
    There is a Santa Claus rally mate.........in the USD :)

    haha but seriously, lets not get too excited. While for some time I myself have commented on the waning momentum and ironic reluctance of people to short and the fact that everyone, even bears was still expecting higher, look where we've come from. This is hardly a collapse, although as others have commented, often tops never feel like it except with hindsight.
  • Mantaray1265
    Thanks a lot gmak. If I get it right, you mean that if I want to maintain my short position, I have to short MiniS&P March10 today by the same amount of contracts?
  • gmak
    Yes on the continued hedge. In future, it might be better to cover your emini futures position and intiate another one for the next quarter to avoid the expiry and SOQ settlement.

    See here for your questions:

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/eminifaq.html

    One part that concerns me is that they settle for cash against the index, and it happened this AM at open. See here:
    http://www.proemini.com/Emini/Buying_Selling_Stock_Index_Futures.htm

    They mention the SOQ which is the settlement quote that was set at 8:30 AM Chicago time on the exiry date.
  • Mantaray1265
    Thank you so much, gmak. I relly appreciate the help.
  • will be leaving for a while don't let the market crash without me;-)
  • gmak
    Couldn't hold it back.
  • well, now for a upswing...
  • gmak
    Sorry. Meant this link for the forex news. The ECB is going to bite the bullet and NOT stop the rule change just to suit Greece. Meanwhile, GS is whining aobut this on Bloomberg as they insist the ECB should still accept Greek collateral. Guess it's a tough life when you can't pawn your garbage off on the CB nearest you. heh.

    http://www.forexlive.com/72410/all/ecb-says-will-not-change-collateral-tightening-plans-to-suit-greece
  • Mantaray1265
    Hi everybody, and congratulations on the fine job you are doing. I'm a trader from Greece, and I've been reading your blog for a while. It's been very stimulating, full of nice ideas (and charts).

    For a start, I have possibly one of the dummiest questions you've ever heard: I was on a trip (just arrived) and I found out that a couple of mini S&P Dec shorts I was holding as a hedge, just expired. What does that mean now; What happens in terms of the account;

    Sorry for bothering you with such a question, but it's the first time it happensto me, so any helpful answer would be very much appreciated...
  • gmak
    They settle in cash daily - so likely nothing beyond the last day netting of accounts.
  • I_got_Prechterized
    Meredith Whitney cuts JPM numbers after lowering GS and MS yesterday.
  • Schwerepunkt
    I mentioned that more than 35-minutes ago. I think she puts her numbers out, locks her door, pulls the shades, "plugs in" and climaxes as she watches the market drop.
  • there's no honour amongst thieves and bank,,, and thieves
  • gmak
  • gmak
    Here is a little item from GARP. If you project it to the US banks, it may help understand why the FED hesitates to pull liquidity.

    Pounds 1000bn funding gap for lenders exposed
    Date: 2009-12-18


    By SEAN O'GRADY

    BANKS are facing a Pounds 1 trillion funding gap as they attempt to finance their lending over the next years, the Bank of England warned today.

    In its latest Financial Stability Report the Bank provided no evidence it is enthusiastic about extending its current unprecedented support to lenders.

    Such a removal of support, the Bank suggests, could lead to a serious correction to gilt and equity prices.

    "The enormous scale of public sector intervention means that any withdrawal of policy support could have a significant impact on investors' portfolio choices and relative asset prices, including government securities," it said.

    "Valuations in some financial markets are vulnerable to such a reappraisal. For example, an increase of 1 percentage point in long- term real interest rates or UK equity risk premia would be consistent with a fall in equity prices in the UK of around 16%."

    The Bank goes on to tell the banks that they 'could usefully take advantage of currently favourable conditions through issuance in private markets and retention of profits to build capital'.

    In a clear hint that the Bank would prefer the banks to retain profits rather than distributing them to shareholders or staff, the Bank adds: "If discretionary distributions had been 20% lower per year between 2000 and 2008, banks would have generated around Pounds 75bn of additional capital -- more than provided by the public sector during the crisis."

    The Bank warns that the commercial banks will need to raise as much as Pounds 33bn more in new capital

    It said: "Capital buffers will need to rise, possibly substantially, over the coming years."

    The banks were urged to take opportunistic advantage of currently buoyant capital markets before any change.

    Lloyds Banking Group recently completed the largest rights issue ever. Some Pounds 50bn of equity has been raised by the big banks recently, improving their capital ratios by two percentage points.

    A number of other risks to financial stability concern officials, including the depressed state of the commercial property market and some indirect damage that could arrive from 'pockets' of trouble in European banks exposed to losses in eastern Europe.

    However, the Bank also points to more hopeful signs. The destruction of financial wealth as a result of the crisis is now down to $6.3trillion, against peak losses of $24.3trillion at the height of the credit crunch.

    In a further push in the direction of 'narrow' banking, the Report also discusses ways that core banking functions can be separated from the other activities of banks, with separation of function existing within a confederal legal structure. Such insulation of payments systems and basic banking is said to be akin to the way utilities are regulated.

    (c) 2009 Belfast Telegraph. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.

    A service of YellowBrix, Inc.
  • Gold_Gerb
    dang gmak, just post the links.
    or fire another comment cleaner.
    =P
  • CHURCH MOUSE MODE NOW!

    gerbil, gmak posts lots of news that some like reading, leave it that way ;-)
  • gmak
    No link. It came in on an email. deal with it.
  • thanks Gmak, the gerbil is back in squeack mode and will bother no further
  • pot getting gashed even more
  • should reach 105.5 ... and then if it breaks it can slide to 93,5 (if gold stays at current levels)

    use pos:$gold and the BBs I mentioned
  • but if you check pos:gold you'll see that it is from 105,5 that you are in slide zone i.e ride it down and drop it if it unhooks from the 104,2.618
  • thanks
  • it's worth what it's worth, but I give it freely ;-)
  • Schwerepunkt
    Whitney cutting estimates for JPMorgan. Merry X-mas. xoxoxo
  • anyone know wtf is up with casual diners today? DRI, EAT, CAKE up huge...they all seem to be great short setups
  • gmak
    Investors.com had an article about CAKE on Dec 8. Apparently, they are creaming the competition even though they have a huge menu and high prices. They have a very high per-store sales average.
  • thanks..ive done ok with cake, if it gets to 22 ill short with a stop ~ 22.6
  • CAKE another 5% rise and I'd short it to kingdom come (i.e.wait a couple of days)
  • Sorry - I had the munchies...
  • lol...check out the trendline and resistance...possible it blows out,
    but i think it looks like a squeeze before earnings at 11 cst
    http://screencast.com/t/Nzk2MmI2ZW

    EAT already started to retreat
  • hi boss, thought about the fumigation?

  • man wtf potash
    it goes down 4.00 every 5 min
  • didn't i say it had another 8% to fall?
  • it has fallen about 8% more
    115 to 107
  • still 1,5% real to fall, my 8% was on a rising gold, it droped

    EDIT corrected to current value of 107... so it should get close to 105.5 (with gold not rising much)
  • Nightwind
    /DX IHS failed to meet target on intraday, could develop into double top pattern.
  • gmak
    Yeah. I'm seeing that double top on the 30 min DXY. so far the neutral pivot at 77.515 has acted as support. As I mentioned, some consolidation here seems appropriate given how far it has run.
  • Nightwind
    Yea, it could also develop into a large IHS and blow skyward. Currently RSI is weak on the 2nd peak -or- it is reloading..
  • 2 days ago I said "just a small caevet, can't you count this buck rise as C of 4?

    I have a bad feeling about 72"

    i saw 78 as possible target for C
  • well, gmak's R1 sustained the rise... so far

    let's see
  • gmak
    Looks like SPX is using the neutral pivot as a floor.
    R2: 1112.87 = just around the horizontal white line on the SPX daily chart that has been a barrier for every move up since October. Like a pinata for the bulls.
    R1: 1104.47 = just above the pop at opening.
    Neutral: 1100.17 Acting as a floor now (along with the VWAP for today).
    S1: 1091.77 = Below all the support we've seen on the 5 min SPX over the last few days
    S2: 1087.47 = pretty darn close to the dashed green line on the SPX daily chart at 1086.

    I don't see a good scalp trade here. Long would put the stop below the neutral pivot but have TD resistance at 1102.81 (scalping for a point - seems sort of futile). Short would put the stop above that 1102.81 - but the support would come in at 1100.17.

    Best to wait a while until some direction is established. Looks like all the traders have headed to Vegas for some R&R where the house odds aren't quite as bad.
  • well, gold kept down, gap up, today is about convincing that the breakout of 1.0 is sustainable
  • short gld again around 110
  • hey, your money

    I think this value is FED sponsored and should rise more than fall right now
  • anyone having "performance problems" today? not that one - running TOS
  • tradejane
    Here are some (rather uninspired) setups:

    AMD
    http://www.screencast.com/t/MGZmYzdl

    CAAS

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MmI0NDViOTE

    FDX

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MzUyNjU0Nz

    HOG

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZTFjYmU1NT

    ORCL

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YzYyNmQzZWUt

    And a repost of UNG:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MWVkZjUzM

    German banks remain oddly weak.

    PS. I didn't mention an opinion (long or short) about the setups on purpose.
  • gmak
    Isn't that an oxymoron for German banks: "oddly weak". I though "oddly strong" would be more appropriate. :-)
  • tradejane
    I know, shorting them has been like shooting fish in a barrel lately. I wonder why.

    NBG broke the triangle today, following the way of AIB I suppose...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YWMxZTdlYTU

    I see the odds for 1.40 are steadily increasing...
  • Hey - no German bashing - remember what happened last time - you want to be responsible for that?
  • gmak
    Sorry. Must be the warm Schadenfreude. Just riffin' off of Jane's ComedyBank comment theme. :-)
  • Sir Mole

    thought you were now a fool bodied yankee, yes sir... oops full bodied

  • GCocks83
    Nice Post, Thanks.
  • Black GS helicopters are coming to TTW
    http://screencast.com/t/MGJiMGY4
  • maybe they're doing a crash course on bear-bear markets

    as in when they don't pump it, how the hell do we know where it's heading?
  • you will be surprised to see the number of hits my site got from MS and GS right after they set 150 by Jul 4th (MS) and 200 by year end (GS) and I publicly expressed my gratitude to them for telling to get out before 4th of July :-)

    may be they gust "botting" blogs with more than 50,000 unique visitors per month to fade Mole's, T.K.'s etc trades (kidding - I am not that stupid, but someone on SOH said: "THEY fade your trade ideas, Tim" - stupoid schmacks)

    OK kids - behave, I am back to my flock (not to confuse with glock)
  • LOL

    go and send them my best regards (some could drop by... this hamster always gives what he has and treats well old acquaintances)
  • Gold_Gerb
    so God prefers Mac's.
    [new users who don't follow here daily will NOT understand that humor]
    ;-)
  • hey, the devil made windows
  • good eye! I was looking at "Macintosh WinXP" an dI was reading
    "Microshit XP"
  • well you crazy russian, you're about to get an offer you can't refuse
  • no horse shit please
  • just kidding you

    but.. what if? would you feel tempted to ride with god's angels? See what they realy do and know (not what you think)
  • :)
    you'd be slightly surprised to see my resume :)
    Shut up Dave!
  • woops, so your avatar is indeed a fallen angel?

    p.s. would be courious to see your résumé, including afghanistan, btw you're what, in your 50's?
  • 50 even
    here is about my avatar (you got it pretty close thou)
    http://www.writedesignonline.com/gallery/lloyd/...
  • yes the tip for 50 was afghanistan (back in 1980 you probably 19 fresh from training)

    but the image is not as much a fallen angel but more a male cariathide where the weight that crashes is but his own
  • WTF?
  • Hi gang, Just a thought on where we end today, I believe we chop around and basically end up no where. Most likely the SPY will pin @ 110. Good luck and have a great day :)

    Short EUR 2 lots
  • centerline
    Hey Anna - hope you are doing well. I have been lurking around again (including HOB and the usual other daily stops). Not doing much this month - as I think we just whipsaw around. Lots and lots of dojis (we need some sort of doji christmas song here).

    Bought some UNG 2 weeks ago. Added some UUP calls about the same time. Other than that... nada.
  • gmak
    Hey kiddo! Nice to see you around!

    Two posts?? You just trying to show off the new Avatar? :-) Looking forward to all those little red velvet and white fur outfits. heh. If I ever have any more option stuff, I'll be sure to drop it off at Hot Option Babe. I only get the occasional "neat item" as you know.

    Cheers.
  • Hey there, no I was hanging out last night, and had some nice posts with Mole :)
    Glad to see you all and its a stock pickers market right now, I see mole has done this and is doing great. So glad to hear it :)
  • gmak
    Here is a black swan event for you.l

    Bloomberg reports that Iran forces have entered Iraq and occupied well number 4 in the east Maysan field in al-Fakah region, 450 km south of Baghdad. Apparently the oil field is old and no longer in production. Apparently, they have raised the Iranian flag.
    The OPEC meeting is in a few days. Should be interesting. I guess the hosts are scrambling to rearrange the seating plans for dinner. heh.
  • dollar
    An Iraqi official played down the incident, saying the area was abandoned and right on a disputed border section.

    They are understood to have stayed for several hours and then withdrawn back across the border.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8420774.stm
  • Cheers, G.

    Sounds a little, um, pointless - does anyone know... why?
  • You didn't get my "joke" did you?


    let's start with basis, there is one major superpower that wants to invade another country

    It has to present a case for war (lest it be considered the agressor)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli

    This is how it was done 60 years ago

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
  • Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh. Sorry - my history is shocking. As is my historical knowledge. Mnah.

    Ahhh, love the smell of goldfoil in the morning..

    In other grey swan news, ZH reckons the world is - irony alert - running out of dollars

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dark-gray-swan...
  • well, as you pointed out... it is a pointless action and an apparent agression to a USA protectorate...

    either iranians are complete idiots or there is something fishy...
  • Schwerepunkt
    Evidently, if reports are true, this happens all the time. It is a disputed zone. The field is in disrepair and doesn't produce because Iranians won't allow Iraqis to access the field. Foreign oil companies refused to bid on the field, which is old and in decline in any case.

    This report smacks of histrionics. Iranians roiling the water a bit, and for some reason the media were alerted to this "story." Perhaps the Iranians are just reminding everyone that they sit on or abut some of the most important real-estate in the energy universe.

    "It couldn't be related in any way to the diplomatic machinations going on in various capitals to slap more sanctions on Iran, could it?, one analyst [that would be me] said precociously.
  • sanctions or more....

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag

    it wouldn't be the first time iran was on the receiving end of sucha a joke

    1953? operation ajax?
  • Nice post Gmak, great stuff, I will post the link for the HOBsters :)
  • a casus belli... is maysan anywhere near Gleiwitz?
  • Nice work Gmak (and the hamster clock has been quiet)

    "Banks are walking away from their own real estate, all the while they quote the moral higher ground to homeowners deep under water" you liked my link?

    as for the looking glass.. couriouser and courioser said Alice

    Maybe we shoud go for an inversion of st.paul's scanner darkly

    everyone's looking at this market through a scanner brightly

    excelent news about the 17 month confidence in business, if there is one contrarian indicator that I like is business/consumer confidence (pitty it's only 17 months high, means may 2008 was higher, we might have to suffer some more)
  • Gold_Gerb
  • that's no hamster clock gerbil...this is an hamster clock

    http://www.stupid.com/fun/HAMC.html

    but I forgive you
  • Schwerepunkt
    Great post once again. I placed an order to short ES at 1104 overnight. It missed by 1.25 pts. Looks like a green morning at least. I expect a lot of selling anywhere above 1101. I've got Woodies R1 at 1102 even and R2 at 1112 even, with the main pivot at 1096.5.
  • vasiltrade
    Hi,u talk for cash sp or for the future?
  • Schwerepunkt
    ES futures.
  • vasiltrade
    Thank you!
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