Endless Bummer (comment clean sweep)…

Michael Davey here (but not there)

Mole is busy with the final touches to Operation Congealed Shadow for 20Ten and I’m here with a quick comment clean before hitting Interstate-5; while my 14 yr. old monitors quotes from behind the deck.

Who says video games are a waste of time? This kid’s kicking my ass this quarter. Two more years and he trades the portfolios while driving my ass around. I’m pretty sure I can handle the quotes.

This is where I would love to chide the bears, in an admiring sort of way – admiring their heroism, strength and good fortitude [ I should not fail to mention I have tried my hand short a few times this past couple months as well]. But I am not making any money yet this quarter myself; ramming and jamming, only to end up slipping and sliding, while only my brokers finding coin under the tree this week.

I should chide us both!

Chinese growth is acting up again today (finally), as the Dollar rally finally shows some amount of break-down. This is worth watching, since if the non-Dollar currencies can keep pressuring Greenbacks the remainder of the year, then some of the biggest equity winners this year (such as the Chinese growth names registered in the US) can drift higher from now to 31 December.

In a normal year (ha!) the year’s biggest winners tend to get accumulated right to the last day and then have a bit of a bad week at the beginning of the next year. Taxes + Window Dressing + lack of volume/supply has everything to do with this.

That and they just look so good going up; lovely glint highlighted by a soft offshore breeze.

We’ll talk more about the beginning of next year later. In the meantime, since it is still the end of ’09 at moment and the Dollar has (perhaps) stopped rallying – don’t do what I do and certainly then, don’t look at RINO (Rino International); which is coming to life (or not) on strong, rising volume.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009 at 1:04 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    browsing some charts…JPM (and other financials esp the hated GS) look like they could be catalysts for next move up…UNLESS they break down soon! Always 2 sides to a story! http://www.screencast.com/t/Y2I2ZTgyM

  • vasiltrade

    Hi all! may i sort sp here for a bear end of year rally?

  • vasiltrade

    This one will be dooooown…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    getting the little trading bug in your son? what kind of a father are you? ;-)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Good post Michael, by me not chasing my fill on BIDU yesterday I lost my whole gain (which was double, who says things are not manipulated? :(

    You know sometimes I wonder if I wasn't a better trader when I was a kid! :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    got your message thank you :)

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    We were better traders as kids!
    …Just not as experienced

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    He makes a good poker bot too ;)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    child exploitaition … and not an honest job as making shoes or helping at the family business, just gambling ;-)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    didn't over analyze everything right? :)))

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    And fearless

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Don't you miss that…:)

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    y, now i just talk big

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahahah :)

  • Nightwind

    Euro in rally mode, equities are treading water

  • Nightwind

    Maybe I spoke to soon

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    have you reached the bottom?

  • Nightwind

    Look at GS on a weekly chart, if I was a bullish guy…it would look like a huge IHS, currently forming the right shoulder.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    wave 4 to 170?

  • Nightwind

    It does look like a 4….good eye

  • texpresso

    closed out focus at 16.12, thanks CD. OCLR has bottomed, i am long term but added some short term today

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    FMCN vol not so impressive, but i'm going to attempt to give it longer; hopefully through next week

  • tradejane

    14 is not too young. I caught the stock bug when I was 9.

  • elliott_surfs

    For any futures traders or those that've been following the after-hours meltup for too long now…great ZH article

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/three-month-fl

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    NILE on the move along with SHLD :)

  • http://spychart.net spycharter

    TRIN is very bearish at 1.67, I think this thing turns around and drops by days end

  • tradejane

    Agreed. It's do or die for SKF and DUG.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MDBlZmUxZDct

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ODg0M2NlZ

    DUG looks particularly vulnerable. The fact that oil is back into the channel will not help:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NjdiNTk2ODMt

  • texpresso

    going to be in and out tomorrow, otherwise i would follow your advice to 16.50. 4% is good enough for me ;)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Excellent confirmation of what we've been saying here for months. Nice to see it represented graphically.

  • Schwerepunkt

    And TICK is bullish! Seems irrelevant on such a slow day.

  • gsavli

    scary stuff, especially when you imagine dow colapsing to its fair value some time after reaching 36.000. War, anarchy, poverty, hunger, death…

  • Nightwind

    Good stuff…..to bad they don't have a “Jobs Futures” market. Forget that, they report the statistics.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    nice piece over at zero hedge showing virtually the entire rally has been a function of gaps. Guess it's easy to by up some illiquid spoos in the middle of the night to give off the appearance of strength.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/three-month-fl

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and as you expand to 6 months you see that IF they break the fall of wave 5 and go straight to 180 then they'll try to break the next fall at 170 and head for 200.

    that's the name of the game

  • gina2001

    Hi guys!
    Is Kemal here?
    Is anyone in Tahoe and want to meet up for drinks later tonight?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    didn't you read my warning? giving you 1 minute before a promise of never again and it's a ban

  • texpresso

    hamster, attack!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    reload and see

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Ticking away… tick tock

  • gina2001

    Happy Holidays Hamster!
    I enjoy your insight.
    Did I do something wrong?(

  • gina2001

    Just wanted to know if anyone was in town and would like to go out for a drink with me and a friend of mine. That's all.

    I was also checking to see if my business partner is back in action yet.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13783#comment-2701

    and I'm slightly extending to give you time to confirm you understood, otherwise it's user an ip ban

  • I_got_Prechterized

    ok- I can't wait this out forever. Shorting SPG, IYR, and FCX here.

  • gmak

    Ummmmm… did you ask permission before using “tick tock”. lol.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Going mobile now

  • gina2001

    Hi hamster. Thank you for clarifying. I did not mean to cause harm to this great site. To be honest, sometimes I can not help myself and can not control not asking about Kemal. I miss him. For this reason, I can not make a promise I probably will not keep. So I will understand you banning me.
    Thanks for everything, and no hard feelings for banning me.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then take over and ban if necessary have to leave

  • gina2001

    Hi guys! Hi Hamster!
    I accidentally deleted my post. Sorry. Here it is again!

    Hi hamster. Thank you for clarifying. I did not mean to cause harm to this great site. To be honest, sometimes I can not help myself and can not control not asking about Kemal. I miss him. For this reason, I can not make a promise I probably will not keep. So I will understand you banning me.
    Thanks for everything, and no hard feelings for banning me.

  • gina2001

    P.S.
    Hi guys.
    If someone wants to meet with me tonight please email me. Please, only ages between 24-48. I would love to talk markets!. I will pay for a great dinner for a lesson in day trading!

  • bananaben

    Just dropped my shorts and ran on IYR. Ain't going back there until Dec. 31st. Was waiting for a pullback to get out but it never came. Fucker just gaps up every day. Don't see anything stopping it. We're trading against Timmy here and the ball is in their court through the end of the year at least:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Are-Big-Banks-Pum… 0847.html?x=0&.v=1

  • gmak

    I'm leaving soon as well. Won't be popping in until Monday – I believe. Perhaps someone who solicits dinner companions online should be locked away for their own protection. <thumbsup> Have a Merry Christmas.

    ________________________________

  • gmak

    Make that the entire rally since September.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Is anyone thinking to short the f out of the QQQQ?

  • Nightwind

    Not me, this bear has been house broken.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Figured this out already….

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/by-god-

  • yogi_barra

    where do you live?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I'm not shorting b/c I am balanced with a full long hedge. But if I were it would be a low risk entry if using a stop above the Daily R2 pivot at 1851.33 (NQH10 Not QQQQ).

  • Gerbil_gold

    nope.
    Q's have always beaten me.

    RSI is below 70.
    SLOWSTOCH is above 80 and can stay there longer than we have money!

  • bubble jeopardy

    When little Timmy is guaranteeing that a financial crisis like last year can not happen again because he won't let it happen, we are certainly near the top. What hubris! The stuff of which tops are made.

  • Nightwind

    Timmy has probally never heard the saying “don't mistake brains for a bull market” or in this case, a bear market rally.

  • bubble jeopardy

    I remember in the early months after the March lows Prechter making the comment that when wave 2 was near completion the government will have declared victory. It was hard to believe then that in 9 mos that would occur, but here we are.

  • K.I.M.

    nobody mentioned eurusd breaking 20 day channel. I've closed all my shorts and open long position.

  • centerline

    Out of UUP for now. Modest gain over the last week or so. Back to cash for now other than some natural gas holdings.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Rejoice in the stupidity to follow an absurd trend!

  • bubble jeopardy

    $bkx not participating again

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    upside momentum looks tired with
    macd extreme and rollover on the 60mins
    imo, upside risk is just a few S&P points
    downside is that i'm looking for some big red candles in the near future

  • Nightwind

    Sounds like your reading my vital signs :)

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    LOL mine too.

    BANK/$BANKX is also overextended. bought back my FAZ at 9.4$

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you were wasting valuable moments – do what has to be done with no warning next time :-)

  • bananaben

    I'm sure some of you have seen this: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Sp

    At what point do we just get the fuck out of this bullshit market and into physical assets before the trickle becomes a stampede? By the time you get any return from P3 to make up your losses the dollar could really be worthless. Earlier this week I ordered about 100 lbs of rice and beans – I advise all of you to do so as well – seriously!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    portuguese are too soft, we try to “get along” but the termination was with extreme prejudice (id + mail + ip)

  • Sleepynaptime

    Your link is no good. Can you repost?

    Thanks.

  • http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/ The_Grim_Reaper

    I'm looking for a pullback in the near future. The last few days of the month, and including the first day of the month, have been quite bearish for the last 4 months. Will it be different at year end? Possibly. In any case, the 5 day ISEE avg is at 148, and the sell threshold is at 138, so I'm very net short right now, but a little more upside is still possible before a substantial pullback. The 10 yr yield has risen too far too fast, and a sell signal is on the verge of triggering. I don't like long positions in the next week or so but expect to love them after the new year starts.

    I believe the end of the month is bearish because fund managers are taking profits before the month-end print.

  • http://stockmarketmasala.blogspot.com/ PRAMOD

    Assuming the institutions started buying in Feb 2009, why would they sell at the end of this month? They might as well wait until a little more than a year to start selling in order to avoid higher capital gain taxes. JMHO

  • elliott_surfs

    I believe if sold after Jan 1st they won't have to pay until Apr. 15th 2011

  • ThetaGuy

    Agree all the way. Tomorrow might be one of those rare chances to buy puts we all dream about (then imagine happening way too soon). Market is choppy low volume and halfway parabolic… I mean geeeez.

  • ThetaGuy

    Roger that. Watch out for the citizens.

  • bananaben

    Sorry – http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-calls-f

    No wonder Gross dumped most of his Treasury holdings.

  • K.I.M.

    spx has one way trust relationship with eurusd, when it's going up, spx is going up. The other way is not trusted.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    You are just in the wrong sector/ index at the wrong time….

  • K.I.M.

    well, my eurusd long from 1,429 is doing just fine

  • goldpackers

    Gann turn due today/ Monday. Mutual Fund Monday again? Killing Jan options as they have a short duration from here. Major turn 1-15 to 1-22.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Gann turn dates seem to be every other week but nothing ever turns!

  • Iguanadon

    REMINDER – NYSE, etc close at 1pm today.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    See the discussion of the four guys below…I think all this blends pretty well with the timing.

    Selling 1 year later or before could make such a big difference in terms of profit margins especially for big funds

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “No matter what baby does as long as baby does not cry”

  • goldpackers

    Some are st 3 to 5 day but the 1-15/1-22 are BIG. Just favors if we rally into Monday, go short.

  • goldpackers

    Typically they are for st trading, not cataclismic events.

  • Nightwind

    Have you heard anything from gannsecret? His turn dates didn't work out to good.

  • goldpackers

    Actually have been a multitude of 3 to 5 day changes in the last 30 days, unfortunately in a 30 pt spx range. And that will come to pass also

    or I am gone to buy a revolver!

    Looking to buy Feb spy puts today ond Monday

  • goldpackers

    I tried to e mail him several times but no response.

  • goldpackers

    Write down 1-14/15 & 1-22/25. Sholud provide excellent entry points. Just have to be willing to trade both sides of the mkt.

    Hoping for 1127 to 37 into Monday.

  • goldpackers

    Believe this reflation is going to work and we will have a massive push up after a 10%ISH correction.
    DJT DJU confirming new highs. Can't be major bearish with that happening, but minor bearish. Favor the top coming later in 2010. And then there will be Hell to pay.

    That and $2 gets you a starbucks

  • Nightwind

    Sorry, but I don't have a lot of faith in Gann dates. On the other hand, TA hasn't been that great either. :)

  • Nightwind

    I'm sticking with my ruler.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Morning gang.
    Action still firm w solid breadth so far today. Planning to keep positioned heady-long here assuming nothing dramatic, then hedge this off late in the session with an index short

  • mtvernon

    GMCR attractive short entry

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    wow the low volume ramp up is relentless

  • centerline

    Morning CD. Just stopping by – and checking on the markets. Nothing unexpected so far. Same old stuff. Grind up through xmas – possibly the end of year. VIX melting away. Glad I pulled out of UUP yesterday and held my UNG though.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    wake up – market is short 1122 /es

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    vaporwar[e]

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    blastpieces 2010

  • gsavli

    not a single tiny pull back. COMP made a 100 points in 4 days, every day a gap and run.

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    Good morning and welcome to Nuclear Physics 101. You know the old saying, out with the old, in with the “nucleus”.

    name that episode.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    We first produced this chart several months back, no joke. For the DWC Total Market, we are now exactly at A=C, and there are 3 other reasons that this is a logical stopping point, besides the horrific fundamentals.

    Now here we are.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/merry-c

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    poo

  • Nightwind

    Good call on FMCN

  • mtvernon

    look at TLT and LQD today

  • bananaben

    No shit. Bears are being raped. But it's all part of the plan:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Are-Big-Banks-Pum

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    it's a little lazy; no vol and can't get above 10-day even so far.
    …at same time dollar weakness has kicked other chinese growth into a move.
    RINO has more power; some more thin names even more

  • I_got_Prechterized

    this is absolutely amazing. this crap doesn't stop. and look at long end rates. they are starting to really creep up- green shoot I suppose? it'll be a great thing when the gov't has to manage trillions in debt with an 8% interest rate.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    CAAS and CAGC were rather wicked re-surging higher

    anyway, thx; all seems to be about the dollar

  • mtvernon

    no kidding, and don't worry about discounting long duration things like corporate earnings streams with higher rates because it is 1999 again, weeeeeeeee

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Yeah, and “we” will probably own lots of commercial real estate by then also.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    On that one too.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Big slice down on RINO here

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    In a way, that's a good sign for bearish case…
    This definitely blow out some stops, which is a necessary part of their evil plan.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Odd that NG storage would affect the overall market even a couple SPX points.

  • mtvernon

    Visited my local AAPL store yesterday, there were more employees with red shirts on then customers at 4 pm. first time i saw that, and maybe 20% of those few customers were at the genius bar getting things fixed.

  • Nightwind

    I agree, I'm waiting on this W2 pullback to complete in the dollar before I get aggressive on the short side.

  • centerline

    Interesting article. Really spells out what a lot of us experienced earlier this year and figured out the hard way! Early January will be critical IMO.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Prison justice?:

    Madoff Suffers Broken Ribs, Collapsed Lung In Possible Attack-Report
    Last update: 12/24/2009 10:38:50 AM
    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
    Bernard Madoff sustained broken ribs, facial fractures and a collapsed lung, consistent with an assault, North Carolina television station WTVD reported Thursday on its Web site, citing people familiar with the situation. Madoff was treated for the injuries at Duke hospital Friday and discharged earlier this week. Officials at the federal prison at Butner, N.C., where Madoff is serving a 150-year sentence for his Ponzi scheme, wouldn't confirm the account, but said Madoff is in the medical clinic at the prison.

  • bananaben

    I expect that January will close higher now. If you listened to the NPR interview with Geithner, you can detect a tone of revenge upon the shorts in his voice:

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?st

    At some point though, they will drive this market up to such ridiculous heights and it will collapse because there is no value. At this point, it will take a Black Swan event to break this market down.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • bubble jeopardy

    What shorts? I didn't think there were any left.

  • Nightwind

    Market Reversal Headline: Prechter turns bullish

  • bergs

    I would like to take this moment to wish Mole, the moderators/contributers and blog members a very Merry Christmas.
    This is an amazing site, we are blessed? or possesed?, LOL!

    Have given up on the wedge other than a target for minuette wave one of minute wave three. Left the arrow on minuette wave one as it still has a micro degree fifth wave to complete. Minute wave two should give us our small pull back into the 1110 range?

    With this count we will see the next pivot of 1168.

    http://screencast.com/t/NzYwMmJhNm

  • bergs

    Gee, thanks Nightwind I just posted my bullish chart.

  • Nightwind

    Same here, I'm going with the possesed part

  • bergs

    Did Prechter post something?

  • bananaben

    By now even Prechter has covered and is sitting this out. I believe somewhere between here and 1250 this thing will crack. But they can keep this show going for some time. Additionally, there is definitely a “recovery” in the semiconductor equipment industry and high tech manufacturing in general. I expect a surprisingly strong increase in GDP in the 4th quarter (4-5%) but I think that it will die out around March April just as the residential and commercial real estate markets fully imlode. Our day will come, our day will come!

  • mtvernon

    Sounded like hot air to me. he can't stop the decline in credit in the economy, that alone kills the economy for years

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Bergs
    Again thanks for your counts, they really help back up my TA's (and others I'm sure). It is a tough process counting the past 2 months!
    Merry Christmas to all, we are blessed and possessed or as my wife tells me obsessed!

  • Nightwind

    Just joking…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    what a xmas

    I'm feeling like a xmas turkey

    My mistake but… I've been plucked, neck was cut,was stuffed, roasted and eaten

    may baby jesus share his cross with these bulltards by easter

  • bubble jeopardy

    Prechter went short on 11/23 when the S & P closed at approximately 1112. The market is up barely 1% since that call. Many ew projections I've seen show p2 to be wrapping up. Low bearish sentiment readings and negative divergences support a topping process.

  • elliott_surfs

    … we may need a bigger cross

  • bubble jeopardy

    My wife believes in the power of wishbones, are you donating yours? :p

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Merry Christmas to you as well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What are you talking about – isn't it a bit early to hit the sauce?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    lots of them, and rusty nails

    I'll hammer them in

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey, mine is already broken and I got the small part

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Merry Christmas Boss, sorry about the mood, but hamburger hill is killing the spirit ;-)

    p.s. whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger… it's the killing part that bothers me

  • bubble jeopardy

    I can relate.

  • bananaben

    I totally agree but this is the most massive fraud in the history of the world not a market. I would certainly have crashed in the late Sept. – Nov. timeframe but they catch it every time. The market will be bigger than the government at some point but I think it is not for now. They will print whatever is necessary to keep this sucker from tanking. I think it will hold through January because the banks will present Enron-esque accounting to show profits once more and 4th quarter data will offer a lot of positives. Perhaps they will allow a token correction but I don't think it will be more than 5%.

    I hope I'm wrong but I'm with Mole and sitting it out until verification. They are relentlessly drilling IYR which has gone up about 7% in the past few weeks. It is definitely smarter to short the major indices vs. the smaller sectors.

  • Tom_27

    Merry Chrstmas, guys! All the best to you all and your families.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Bobby – will you EVER shut the fuck up?

    Monday, December 21, 2009

    ——————————————————————————–

    Greetings David,

    The mainstream has reached a consensus: The worst of “The Great Recession” is finally over. They foresee a New Year of profits.

    Even its outspoken critics have begrudgingly conceded that the government's unprecedented measures over the past two years are responsible for the recovery.

    Well, we write to tell you, don't believe the hype.

    To wit, Robert Prechter makes the following point in his brand new December Theorist:

    “Ironically (is there any other way?), the media just reported a rise in wholesale prices of 1.8% for November, and economists are interpreting it as inflationary and therefore bearish for the dollar. But this number is a lagging indicator. It is indeed reflecting inflation, but it's the inflation that already occurred over the past three quarters of the year. The dollar accurately signaled a period of inflation nine months ago when it turned down, and commodities confirmed inflation the whole time as they rallied into November. … But the wholesale price jump is distracting commentators into writing about this 'warning sign' of inflation, just as a falling Consumer Price Index produced a peak in deflation-related articles in November 2008, a whole year late.”

    In other words, the media covers the markets now as ever, by extrapolating trends into the future. They never acknowledged that their trusty indicators failed miserably to signal the most important turning points of the past decade: October 2007 and March 2009. (Prechter was virtually alone in anticipating both of these monumental reversals.)

    In his brand new December Theorist, Bob focuses squarely on the most important investment issues for tomorrow. You will get unparalleled insight into the government's new initiatives throughout the crisis and how those new programs will affect you in 2010. Ignore this issue at your peril.

  • bubble jeopardy

    Sounds like the perfect setup for P3. Little Timmy says he won't let it happen again. I don't recall any such statement back in March of this year. P2 has done its job and reset the financial mood barometer in some cases to readings exceeding that of the 2007 highs. And we all know what happened then. And many of us have a good idea of what is about to happen again, only on a greater scale.

  • tradejane

    Merry Christmas to you (and everyone else here too. :)

  • tradejane

    >may baby jesus share his cross with these bulltards by easter

    Kind of like this?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtUw_JnmYQ0&feat

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Merry Christmas to Mole and all. enjoy be safe and be kind to an animal and each other :))

  • Tom_27

    Thank you, you too. Stay safe.

  • bergs

    You have a great one Anna. You are special.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I will certainly be kind to the animals (people don't really deserve it)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't we all… ;-)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Happy Holidays Bergs, takes one to know one ;-)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahahahahahah that's why the animals went first :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    is it prechter bashing time? again?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    kind of, I expected more medieval style…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    are bulls animals?

  • TransworldDepravity

    Merry Christmas Jane!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    People, in this context

  • amokta

    I predict that the markets will remain unchanged tomorrow!
    Happy Christmas !

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahahah so are hamsters ;-P

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Long apple this a.m break out going higher :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well merry xmas to every single furry and naked criter around (for naked criters of the female kind more than the others)

    and …

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    don't feel bad. santa gave us an amazing short entry here.
    AMAZING

    the regular rational market couldn't have gotten us to 1121/1126 so quickly which is the full 50% retrace of the bear market

    you can bet that at the very least, volume coming back will want to re-test the christmas breakout

    more likely, this is a false breakout or the pattern is a rising flag not a sideways pattern and we will break to the downside.

    i have FAZ and short ES and am thankful for these insane entries

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, and if the trade goes sour remember

    “Worse things happen at? sea you know!”

    “What have you got to lose?” “You came from nothing, you are going back to nothing, so what have you lost? Nothing!”

  • Schwerepunkt

    Those guys are brilliant. A gift to the human race.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    if he only stopped talking…

  • bubble jeopardy

    The crowd, at the store I was at yesterday, thank goodness was clothed because picturing them, even the female critters among them, involved a torturous creativity my mind doesn't want to experience.

  • bubble jeopardy

    Anybody lately heard of any politicians, bureaucrats, or market pundits making comments about banning those evil shorts?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, no brain no pain

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    bot some AAPL puts, holding PCLN puts from yest, V puts from 89, long SRS, SDS
    everyone happy holidays, spend quality tim with your families (or with other people families if you are like me)
    over and out

  • gsavli

    AAPl jan or feb?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    love them, as far as musics are concerned the “every sperm is sacred” has better coreography but prefer the lyrics of always look…

  • bubble jeopardy

    To the blessed, obsessed, possessed, and the just plain curious

    Seasons greetings all

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how wrong do you think he is?

  • derekste

    Merry Christmas Everyone!

    Just figured I'd post a quick screen cap for some bear holiday cheer…

    http://stealyourface.net/charts/2009-12-24-SPYp

  • bananaben

    Can someone tell me when the market closes today? It's 9:52 PST and I'm not sure if it's 10:00 or 10:30.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanksgiving was 10:00 I think

  • gsavli

    10:00 in 5 mins

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    !0:00 PST. but GLobex indices futures go to 10:15

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Xmas feels better with HOD at EOD after an Nth gap up

    JESUS HAS TRULY RISEN

  • bananaben

    Thank you – starting to scale into DRV at the close.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    it's almost comical now. same gameplan almost every week- melt up on no volume and squeeze the shit out of the most heavily shorted sectors. Look at what they did to the REITs this week. SPG downgraded a couple days ago- no problem- just keep squeezing the 8% of the float that's short. I got stopped out again. Every time I try to pick an entry, I get my head ripped off. Everybody have a Merry Christmas except you GS prop traders. I hope you all get cancer or AIDS on Christmas, at least the swine flu.

  • ultra

    Merry Chrimbo, Mole and all the rest of yerz – and a bearish new year!

    Just been looking at one of our host's favourite toys, X – here's what I see, lots of lovely fib level bounces – short by 60 looks very possible – http://screencast.com/t/MmNhZmQwOWU

  • bananaben

    Now now. You know they got their doses of swine flu vacccine before any of the hospitals did right? After all they are the first responders for the “market.”

    Scalped some DRV at the closing bell – expect to add positions through next week. Pretty sure that at least the first day of the year will be down as many are trying to hold their gains into next year for tax reasons.

  • gsavli

    Still bearish? Some people just don't know when to quit. This thing only goes up. ;)

  • monica1

    Could be before then ultra based on it's RSI reading.

  • gina_2001

    Hi Hamster! Hi guys!
    Hi Hamster, what do you see the market doing next week???

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, some people never quit LOL

    BTW people ignore any glitch in the matrix ;-)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    he might be right one day, but for now he is annoying as hell and sounds and looks as arrogant as people he is trying to be smarter than.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    should have been a very good stuff!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the “answer” was not for him, there was a black cat after a black cat passing…

    someone spent enough time creating a new mail+ disqus user… to be blasted to pieces in a moment…

    the evil hamster works swiftly “nothing to see, move along”

  • centerline

    Merry Christmas all.

    Next week likely to be the same BS. I will be around to laugh at it of course. Early January will be where I am looking for some sense of direction. Until then, no decision making or evil plotting of any sort.

    Mole – best of luck at CES. Thanks for the great site. If only my computer doubled as a beer tap and bartender would this be perfect and I would never have to leave. Cheers of course from east coast, Florida.

  • crush1618

    Merry Christmas Mole, contributing authors, and ES followers!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Feb230p
    for 1/8th of money getting 3/4 of a buck delta
    I try to only buy ITM for next 3 months and flip within 1-2 week max
    just getting more leverage

  • gsavli

    yea, but my account was seriously diminished this week due to the worst risk management of my life so far.

  • gsavli

    yea, makes sense.

  • http://www.bigmovingstock.com bigmovingstock

    hindyomen, love the handle – speaking of which, when is the last time the market gave a hindenburg omen? Most big corrections are predicted by it, but I don't think there have been any recently. Merry Christmas everyone!

  • kryxtal

    Anyone know what the deal is with SNDK? It's gone parabolic (exponential), and the RSI/MACD are at insane levels.

  • kryxtal

    Also, I think it had only ONE down day for the entire month of December so far…

  • bergs

    Did Prechter post something?

  • bananaben

    By now even Prechter has covered and is sitting this out. I believe somewhere between here and 1250 this thing will crack. But they can keep this show going for some time. Additionally, there is definitely a “recovery” in the semiconductor equipment industry and high tech manufacturing in general. I expect a surprisingly strong increase in GDP in the 4th quarter (4-5%) but I think that it will die out around March April just as the residential and commercial real estate markets fully imlode. Our day will come, our day will come!

  • Captain Obvious

    Sounded like hot air to me. he can't stop the decline in credit in the economy, that alone kills the economy for years

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Bergs
    Again thanks for your counts, they really help back up my TA's (and others I'm sure). It is a tough process counting the past 2 months!
    Merry Christmas to all, we are blessed and possessed or as my wife tells me obsessed!

  • Nightwind

    Just joking…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    what a xmas

    I'm feeling like a xmas turkey

    My mistake but… I've been plucked, neck was cut,was stuffed, roasted and eaten

    may baby jesus share his cross with these bulltards by easter

  • bubble jeopardy

    Prechter went short on 11/23 when the S & P closed at approximately 1112. The market is up barely 1% since that call. Many ew projections I've seen show p2 to be wrapping up. Low bearish sentiment readings and negative divergences support a topping process.

  • elliott_surfs

    … we may need a bigger cross

  • bubble jeopardy

    My wife believes in the power of wishbones, are you donating yours? :p

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Merry Christmas to you as well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What are you talking about – isn't it a bit early to hit the sauce?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    lots of them, and rusty nails

    I'll hammer them in

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey, mine is already broken and I got the small part

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Merry Christmas Boss, sorry about the mood, but hamburger hill is killing the spirit ;-)

    p.s. whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger… it's the killing part that bothers me

  • bubble jeopardy

    I can relate.

  • bananaben

    I totally agree but this is the most massive fraud in the history of the world not a market. I would certainly have crashed in the late Sept. – Nov. timeframe but they catch it every time. The market will be bigger than the government at some point but I think it is not for now. They will print whatever is necessary to keep this sucker from tanking. I think it will hold through January because the banks will present Enron-esque accounting to show profits once more and 4th quarter data will offer a lot of positives. Perhaps they will allow a token correction but I don't think it will be more than 5%.

    I hope I'm wrong but I'm with Mole and sitting it out until verification. They are relentlessly drilling IYR which has gone up about 7% in the past few weeks. It is definitely smarter to short the major indices vs. the smaller sectors.

  • Tom_27

    Merry Chrstmas, guys! All the best to you all and your families.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Bobby – will you EVER shut the fuck up?

    Monday, December 21, 2009

    ——————————————————————————–

    Greetings David,

    The mainstream has reached a consensus: The worst of “The Great Recession” is finally over. They foresee a New Year of profits.

    Even its outspoken critics have begrudgingly conceded that the government's unprecedented measures over the past two years are responsible for the recovery.

    Well, we write to tell you, don't believe the hype.

    To wit, Robert Prechter makes the following point in his brand new December Theorist:

    “Ironically (is there any other way?), the media just reported a rise in wholesale prices of 1.8% for November, and economists are interpreting it as inflationary and therefore bearish for the dollar. But this number is a lagging indicator. It is indeed reflecting inflation, but it's the inflation that already occurred over the past three quarters of the year. The dollar accurately signaled a period of inflation nine months ago when it turned down, and commodities confirmed inflation the whole time as they rallied into November. … But the wholesale price jump is distracting commentators into writing about this 'warning sign' of inflation, just as a falling Consumer Price Index produced a peak in deflation-related articles in November 2008, a whole year late.”

    In other words, the media covers the markets now as ever, by extrapolating trends into the future. They never acknowledged that their trusty indicators failed miserably to signal the most important turning points of the past decade: October 2007 and March 2009. (Prechter was virtually alone in anticipating both of these monumental reversals.)

    In his brand new December Theorist, Bob focuses squarely on the most important investment issues for tomorrow. You will get unparalleled insight into the government's new initiatives throughout the crisis and how those new programs will affect you in 2010. Ignore this issue at your peril.

  • bubble jeopardy

    Sounds like the perfect setup for P3. Little Timmy says he won't let it happen again. I don't recall any such statement back in March of this year. P2 has done its job and reset the financial mood barometer in some cases to readings exceeding that of the 2007 highs. And we all know what happened then. And many of us have a good idea of what is about to happen again, only on a greater scale.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Merry Christmas to you (and everyone else here too. :)

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    >may baby jesus share his cross with these bulltards by easter

    Kind of like this?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtUw_JnmYQ0&feat

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Merry Christmas to Mole and all. enjoy be safe and be kind to an animal and each other :))

  • Tom_27

    Thank you, you too. Stay safe.

  • bergs

    You have a great one Anna. You are special.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I will certainly be kind to the animals (people don't really deserve it)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't we all… ;-)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Happy Holidays Bergs, takes one to know one ;-)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahahahahahah that's why the animals went first :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    is it prechter bashing time? again?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    kind of, I expected more medieval style…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    are bulls animals?

  • TransworldDepravity

    Merry Christmas Jane!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    People, in this context

  • amokta

    I predict that the markets will remain unchanged tomorrow!
    Happy Christmas !

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahahah so are hamsters ;-P

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Long apple this a.m break out going higher :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well merry xmas to every single furry and naked criter around (for naked criters of the female kind more than the others)

    and …

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

  • http://hindyomen.tumblr.com/ hindyomen

    don't feel bad. santa gave us an amazing short entry here.
    AMAZING

    the regular rational market couldn't have gotten us to 1121/1126 so quickly which is the full 50% retrace of the bear market

    you can bet that at the very least, volume coming back will want to re-test the christmas breakout

    more likely, this is a false breakout or the pattern is a rising flag not a sideways pattern and we will break to the downside.

    i have FAZ and short ES and am thankful for these insane entries

    EDIT: new 52 week highs are at an extreme.. highest since oct 19, 2009 top and oct 11 2007 all time top. points to pull back.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, and if the trade goes sour remember

    “Worse things happen at? sea you know!”

    “What have you got to lose?” “You came from nothing, you are going back to nothing, so what have you lost? Nothing!”

  • Schwerepunkt

    Those guys are brilliant. A gift to the human race.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    if he only stopped talking…

  • bubble jeopardy

    The crowd, at the store I was at yesterday, thank goodness was clothed because picturing them, even the female critters among them, involved a torturous creativity my mind doesn't want to experience.

  • bubble jeopardy

    Anybody lately heard of any politicians, bureaucrats, or market pundits making comments about banning those evil shorts?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, no brain no pain

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    bot some AAPL puts, holding PCLN puts from yest, V puts from 89, long SRS, SDS
    everyone happy holidays, spend quality tim with your families (or with other people families if you are like me)
    over and out

  • gsavli

    AAPl jan or feb?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    love them, as far as musics are concerned the “every sperm is sacred” has better coreography but prefer the lyrics of always look…

  • bubble jeopardy

    To the blessed, obsessed, possessed, and the just plain curious

    Seasons greetings all

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how wrong do you think he is?

  • derekste

    Merry Christmas Everyone!

    Just figured I'd post a quick screen cap for some bear holiday cheer…

    http://stealyourface.net/charts/2009-12-24-SPYp

  • bananaben

    Can someone tell me when the market closes today? It's 9:52 PST and I'm not sure if it's 10:00 or 10:30.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanksgiving was 10:00 I think

  • gsavli

    10:00 in 5 mins

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    !0:00 PST. but GLobex indices futures go to 10:15

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Xmas feels better with HOD at EOD after an Nth gap up

    JESUS HAS TRULY RISEN

  • bananaben

    Thank you – starting to scale into DRV at the close.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    it's almost comical now. same gameplan almost every week- melt up on no volume and squeeze the shit out of the most heavily shorted sectors. Look at what they did to the REITs this week. SPG downgraded a couple days ago- no problem- just keep squeezing the 8% of the float that's short. I got stopped out again. Every time I try to pick an entry, I get my head ripped off. Everybody have a Merry Christmas except you GS prop traders. I hope you all get cancer or AIDS on Christmas, at least the swine flu.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Merry Chrimbo, Mole and all the rest of yerz – and a bearish new year!

    Just been looking at one of our host's favourite toys, X – here's what I see, lots of lovely fib level bounces – short by 60 looks very possible – http://screencast.com/t/MmNhZmQwOWU

  • bananaben

    Now now. You know they got their doses of swine flu vacccine before any of the hospitals did right? After all they are the first responders for the “market.”

    Scalped some DRV at the closing bell – expect to add positions through next week. Pretty sure that at least the first day of the year will be down as many are trying to hold their gains into next year for tax reasons.

  • gsavli

    Still bearish? Some people just don't know when to quit. This thing only goes up. ;)

  • monica1

    Could be before then ultra based on it's RSI reading.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, some people never quit LOL

    BTW people ignore any glitch in the matrix ;-)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    he might be right one day, but for now he is annoying as hell and sounds and looks as arrogant as people he is trying to be smarter than.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    should have been a very good stuff!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the “answer” was not for him, there was a black cat after a black cat passing…

    someone spent enough time creating a new mail+ disqus user… to be blasted to pieces in a moment…

    the evil hamster works swiftly “nothing to see, move along”

  • centerline

    Merry Christmas all.

    Next week likely to be the same BS. I will be around to laugh at it of course. Early January will be where I am looking for some sense of direction. Until then, no decision making or evil plotting of any sort.

    Mole – best of luck at CES. Thanks for the great site. If only my computer doubled as a beer tap and bartender would this be perfect and I would never have to leave. Cheers of course from east coast, Florida.

  • crush1618

    Merry Christmas Mole, contributing authors, and ES followers!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Feb230p
    for 1/8th of money getting 3/4 of a buck delta
    I try to only buy ITM for next 3 months and flip within 1-2 week max
    just getting more leverage

  • gsavli

    yea, but my account was seriously diminished this week due to the worst risk management of my life so far.

  • gsavli

    yea, makes sense.

  • http://www.bigmovingstock.com bigmovingstock

    hindyomen, love the handle – speaking of which, when is the last time the market gave a hindenburg omen? Most big corrections are predicted by it, but I don't think there have been any recently. Merry Christmas everyone!

  • kryxtal

    Anyone know what the deal is with SNDK? It's gone parabolic (exponential), and the RSI/MACD are at insane levels.

  • kryxtal

    Also, I think it had only ONE down day for the entire month of December so far…





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