Not Back To The Future Yet

It’s been a rather interesting session thus far and I have been pretty prolific today offering some updates on playing the spoos. My entry was 1399 as most of you are probably aware of since I announced it all over the place. We dropped all the way to 1384 but have since recovered ten handles (as of this writing). Here’s where and why we bounced:

As you can see – right at the big volume hole near 1388. And we need to get below 1388 for the ole’ Flux Capacitor to kick in. We were about to pass over but we must have hit some inter-dimensional hurdle (Fed cough cough) and some emergency buyers showed up.

So if you saw this coming – why did I not scale out near 1388? Simple – because this is not the trade I’m looking for and if I jump in/out too often I’ll get left behind if we paint a big move. Has happened to me back in the day and I learned my lesson since. This is not a normal scalp, which is why I’m approaching it differently. Anyway, my stop is now above VWAP and I’m either getting stopped out near 1397 or I get to target (which is quite a bit lower).

The good news actually is that the volume hole was observed. This means that we will be able to use it in the future if we come down for a visit again. Until this happens I am however neutral until ES 1400. Depending on the close I may try another short or go long if we push above it.

In terms of setups I have very little to offer today, so let’s just get it over with. The USD/CAD is back above the 100-day after testing its 25-day (now you know why I use these things). I want to be short until I get stopped out above that diagonal on the daily. If that happens I’ll flip for a long. Sheesh – a bit too much work and gyrations this week – not my favorite tape, this. I’m pretty ecstatic about the elections finally being behind us.

EUR/AUD approaching support on the daily. I’m waiting for a breach of the 25-hour now to get long. Not interested in a short position unless we drop below the 100-day.

That’s it for today, folks. I’m going back to coding – doing some work on the NinjaTrader based Mole system again. If anything exciting happens I’ll chime in via Google+ or Twitter.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 7th, 2012 at 2:05 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And I’m out at 1397.25.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I get you next time, Gadget – next time!!

  • ptosh

    bear party over? 

  • ptosh

     IWM put in a solid  bottom at 80. 

  • Joe_Jones
  • Joe_Jones

    Maybe not. 

  • Joe_Jones

    mmmh, currencies not showing much strength, and bulls ain’t doing fart. What time does the margin call session starts again? ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    death blow.  cue dead bull in 3….2…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    check out May 7th on this chart.
    it’s about that time again.
    [News be Damned]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p62445467360

  • Joe_Jones

    Reloading 1/4 position short for EOD bungabunga

  • I Bergamot

     it’s on.
    Rivers of blood

  • Joe_Jones

    good observation

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back short with a stop above 1400.

  • StrikeFirst

    1384 is the 10 SMA on the monthly chart.

  • wrc1k

    Someone didn’t take too kindly to the divergence away from VWAP . . .

  • Skynard

    Market stabilizing at SPX 1400 now, time to squeeze the late bears now:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no no no, it’s the pansie weak bears taking profits.
    you know they set their trailing stops. [EDIT - not that there's anything wrong with that] ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    You may be right. Currencies not participating. I’m bailing out of 1/2 position short and leaving out 1/4 as a lottery ticket

  • newbfxtrader

    Just got here. Backing the truck up on longs..

  • Skynard

    Alright, if you say so:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah, that inverted-T, may turn out to be a face ripper up
    just don’t know.  trade the setups, and follow your personal rules.
    or the Zero (whichever is better).

    http://s13.postimage.org/ze6a0b26t/inverted.png

  • Joe_Jones

    Agree. I don’t want to push my luck.

  • itslance

    Anybody holding overnight one way or the the other? I’m tempted to hold long, since the VIX looks bullish on the 5 day hourly.

  • wrc1k

     Not sure yet, been holding TZA since Monday pre-market, what’s another day at this juncture.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    *Market Close < 5 min*

    (wow, I wonder what the BPSPX chart will look like?)

  • itslance

    Scratch that idea.  Closed out after seeing the last 5 minutes of the day unfold.

  • ronebadger

     nothing looks too bullish EXCEPT the VIX

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    rumor is the VIX halted at some time today?

    EDIT: for 35 minutes, geeez.

  • Joe_Jones

    How is the Nor’easter treating you? Got you power back?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ha – that bitch almost stopped me out! :-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    LMAO,
    (Gerb see’s 1390 on the ES)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Believe it or not – that show taught me English! :-)

  • itslance

     Yeah, I reconsidered after I saw everything start tanking in the last couple minutes.  I saw that the $SPX was going to close below the 100 day and squared up.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    if today was the flag of a bear flag fall, es 1367 fib forecast.
    yikes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Staying short overnight with my stop above ES 1400.

  • Joe_Jones

    Go-go gadget avatar change :-)

  • Skynard

    Put /SI, /CL, /HG on with AUD:)

  • convictscott

    who noticed the sell off came after a daily retest variation sell signal? (see cheat sheet)

  • Joe_Jones

    You did!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    all hail CS!!!

  • Skynard

    That is a nice chart, ready for the next run up:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    any chance of a video?…..(Gerb gently whistles a hip tune)

  • AMCabrera

    no biggie will re enter into usd/jpy at 79.88 (short)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Damn it – I look at the spoos too much. Should have checked the SPX.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m wiped – going to bed soon.

  • ronebadger

    Bed is for closers…..

  • itcomesupinwaves

    There’s your NZD sell off. Ha!

  • AmazingLarry

    LOL. WHO ARE YOU!?! 

  • newbfxtrader

    Bad employment report.

  • ronebadger

    Got my power back last night, after over 8 full days…got cable back too.  Almost 80 hours on the generator (that’s 50 gallons of gas in the thing).  We still have long gas lines.  I gave $100 to a guy for $22 worth of gas on Sunday, so I didn’t have to stand on line…he looked like he needed it.  Now, my son (EMT) and wife (nurse) can go to the head of most lines…so that’s my future ace in the hole.

    Noreaster is going on right now….wind, rain and SNOW   (this too shall pass)

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Yep, and the market agrees with the data.

  • Skynard

    Nice! Should fair well for my AUD longs:)

  • BobbyLow

    Wow!  I have no idea what happened to the NZD because I was down a a few Pips on my Short position on NZD/CAD and then all of a sudden it shit the bed.   

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that.   :)  

  • newbfxtrader

    Bad employment report.

  • Joe_Jones

    MAD Cat, Mwaaahahaahhah! 

  • mrmik3

    Hope your ok now rb! Stay safe!!

  • AMCabrera

    lol you know since last Thursday I figured this would start happening.

  • Joe_Jones

    Glad to see things are getting gradually back to normal for you

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • BobbyLow

    I’m short AUD/JPY so maybe not this one?   LOL

  • AMCabrera

    maybe the nzd/usd is the “canary out of the coal mine” for oceanic pairs.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why are you wasting gas? All you need is a hamsterwheel and a carrot. Gives me about 5kW per hamster.

  • AMCabrera

    mmm eur/aud showing first signs of HEY AMC has not looked at me so lets see if we can rally 250 pips while he is not looking. But im looking.

  • Skynard

    Volume today, hummmm?

    /ES tagged one of my trend lines today. Support? Naaaa:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Notice GBP held better than aud, nzd etc today.

  • bravenewworld2011

    What do you guys think about SPX and VIX stopping right at support/resistance zones, yet TLT seems to have just broken out of a wedge?

  • newbfxtrader

    Bond markets are usually right but with QE correlations are a mess.

  • Skynard

    Want to see the AUD make a new high to short the hell out of it:)

  • newbfxtrader

    You can read my mind I swear!

  • badflightrisk

     This seems similiar to recent sell offs.  Just when it looks like its going to take out a key support it reverses and that the end of it.  I need a copy of the FED’s play book by Ben D Bankee 
     

  • Skynard

    LOL, the trend is your friend until it’s not:)

  • Skynard

    AUD employment data, another big move coming:)

  • I Bergamot

     I’m thinking the same. Like a Pavlov’s dog.
    From my copy of Fed’s “playbook” : market breaks low overnight, some goblin makes some kind of a statement, gives assurances = rally into year-end.
    The problem with this thinking is – we can’t trade like this, or we will have same questions at 1300.
    ES 1388 FTW

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that was a helluva bounce in gold.
    let’s see if it can pull out of the dive.

    http://s7.postimage.org/4g5pt2zuj/NOV_07_GLD.png

  • ridingwaves

    the vix is on the fix…..a great way to control the market….I wish I could figure it out but it happened when Peregrine went bankrupt

  • fast and steady

    Any comments on eur/usd zero?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    look at the volume on the 240min chart from 8-12 today and compare going back the past 3 months

  • RUFCrazy2

    I was kinda thinkin maybe becauee we hit and closed pretty much right at the 1388 or 1390 whatever it was point and figure chart this would be a pretty damn place to take long stand.  What do I know.  I went long on a massice negative tick  near the lows anyway cause I am more than aware of throwovers/unders. 

  • RUFCrazy2

    If I could type it would help perhaps

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky standing aside. got out of longs. maybe a bit more downside left.

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky remember this guy? Back from the dead!

  • Skynard

    Yes, have seen this strength in AUD for some time. Long my friend:)

  • Skynard

    Yes, Bully:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Depending on how you draw that diagonal that breach already happened days ago.

  • Skynard

    ST, bullish through OPX next week.

  • Skynard

    AAPL looks to have found support at the 100 daily very similar to precious:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    /es T completed.
    http://s15.postimage.org/qabwiou89/es_Nov_2012.png
    -Gerb

    Captain, we are reading for your briefing..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Taking short the /DX again right here.





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