The Mole Smells A Rat

So this morning I looked at the spoos which were looking prepped for the noose – then I looked at the VIX which has been pushing higher all through yesterday’s low volume session. My conclusion was that something wasn’t adding up here and I think the ramp up that followed proved my point.

Since then we’ve been dropping again and as I’m typing this the E-Mini is back below its 100-hour SMA. However, the 25-hour SMA has been broken and that’s one step forward for the bears. If you look at the daily panel then it’s clear that a valiant attempt at painting a floor here is in progress. Of course before we pick a direction we’ll have to put up with the obligatory shake out of weak hands on both sides of the trading spectrum. Remember – the bus always moves fastest once everyone got off.

As I’m not completely useless here are a few hooks to hang your hats on: First the 100-hour SMA of course – it has not been touched for quite a while and it’s not surprising that the first attempt is meeting some profit taking. The fat lady has not sung here yet.

Also let’s not forget that we are back at the ole’ volume hole right now. And unless 1388 is being taken out the bulls are not going anywhere. Until 1388 a short position is permissible – after a breach above that mark the bulls are back behind the steering wheel. Yes, it’s that simple – at least for now. In case you wonder – I’m don’t see many reasons to be short unless we drop back below 1374 – basically the 25-hour SMA.

Now this is why it pays to show up for work on Veteran’s Day! You guys may recall that ST long entry I took on natgas yesterday. Well, it’s been fueling a veritable rocket ever since. I’m taking partial profits now but given that we busted a daily NLBL today I’ll keep a few lottery tickets in the running.

By the way, if you want to catch some of that early morning goodness then make sure you sign up for my Google+ alerts. I also post them on twitter but am in the process of shifting a lot of my efforts in building a G+ community. So join the Evil Speculator circle and get in front of the tape before it all happens.

A few more perspectives below for my intrepid subs:

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 13th, 2012 at 1:20 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Tronacate

    GC looks below the 25hr sma now

  • Tronacate

    Looking for a retest of the 100hour

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    tried to sign up for your google alert but link did not work

  • captainboom

    It’s looking to me like we are setting up for a daily RTV buy on ES and AAPL.  Haven’t looked at others. SPX does not meet criteria.  Am I right on this?

  • Tronacate

    got the three higher closes it appears

  • I Bergamot

    /ES. There is no bottom without follow-thru to over 1390.
    May be one more move lower, but not necessary higher low?
    /DX. What a whippy bastard, already stopped out twice. Is it breaking down or what?
    no go-go in sight

  • ronebadger

    the SPX is probably close enough for government work….the main idea is there…it’s close

  • Joe_Jones

    Dunno about the rat, but I smell some nice T-bone on the grill ;-)

  • Tronacate

    Here goes the 25 hour sma on ES

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh sure, move in on my T bid’ness.

    INTC -2%   QQQ’s -0.5%

  • fast and steady

    Selloff in eur/usd coming if my experience with the zero over the past week is to be trusted. 

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    so those possible exhaustions are a sign of more downside given the zero line? 

  • Joe_Jones

    No these are just exhaustion signs, not an indication of future direction

  • fast and steady

    They are usually a sign of selling exhaustion but they have to be acompanied by price action. When you see something like that and price does not match the zero, it portends some downside later on. Remember, this is not an oscillator. Well, this is what I have observed. It would be helpful if someone else could chime in.

  • fast and steady

     Exhaustion with no price movement to the downside? Could it be smart money getting positioned?

  • fast and steady

    Just added to spy shorts near the close.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, we closed below the 25-hour SMA. Now the name of the game is staying short with a stop above that SMA.

  • Joe_Jones

    I am no expert on FX but before I get positioned I like to see a succession of X-signals (separated by a few hours in case of the 60 min chart) but with no change in the direction of the trend. Assuming an uptrend, I’d get short on the second or third buy X-signal once I see a negative divergence on ZeroFX.  

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    Helpful insight, JJ. Thanks

  • Tronacate

    How much wiggle room do you give on the 25 sma?

  • Joe_Jones

    You’re welcome if it indeed helps 

  • pouquinhos

    Accumulation timeHunting and hunted …… who will win?I’ll pay for a license to hunt ….
    http://spxinvestment.blogspot.pt/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NOT too much…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Watch the new video folks!





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