No Mercy For The Turkey

It may be Thanksgiving week but there are literally high quality setups crawling out of the woodworks. Can’t I ever get a day off? Here I was hoping for a slow shake out day and an obligatory update after which I would whisk off for some nice tapas being served right around the corner. But no such luck – evil is as evil does and now I’m forced to actually post something productive. So here we go:

The E-Mini looked ready to rock and roll earlier this morning but has since dropped through our 25-hour SMA. Its also back below the daily NLBL that it conquered yesterday. Frankly I’m not too worried about it – tomorrow is this week’s last trading day that counts (I don’t expect much activity on Friday). And that NLBL is good until Monday, so this could stretch out.

However, that said – IF the spoos drop a bit more or hold below VWAP then the VIX just may close inside its 2.0 Bollinger. And that would mean it would have satisfied step two into a bonafide VIX sell signal. And that would be interesting, wouldn’t it?

Quick crude update – yes, the setups is officially busted after a sea of red hourly candles got us back to whence we came. I’ll be back to strike again if we push above the 100-hour SMA – whenever that happens.

A little freebie as I also want to show off some early afternoon coding efforts. I have now produced an inside day indicator so that I don’t always have to draw those lines – it started to get old. By the way, I also wrote an outside period indicator – you can see the labels on this chart plus I’m darkening the candles a little bit. I would actually prefer to draw blue outlines around the candle (like in NinjaTrader) but to my shame I don’t know how to do that and ThinkOrSwim is not responding to my support emails.

Anyway, the greenback is offering up an inside day + NR4 day. I would love to see an upside breach here which would really throw a curve ball at those Dollar bears. But of course I wouldn’t mind a drop below today’s lows tomorrow – less evil but potentially profitable nevertheless.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 20th, 2012 at 2:02 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • amokta

    Nice!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Nice Coding Mole.

    Sky, 2:30′ish for the long

    http://s7.postimage.org/sxhloa78p/temp1.png
    speculative (of course)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    iBergamot ducks to avoid ” a curve ball thrown at those Dollar bears”.
    (I am biased – thats not good)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    /DX
    Looking at this chart and all I see is DOWN!
     

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • AmazingLarry

    Mole the ID code is da bomb. I don’t know how many setups I’ve missed because I just don’t remember to check. Appreciate the work on that. 

    Sugar, coffee..many commodities are looking delicious ahead of a gut busting gluttonous feast. How fitting. 

  • BobbyLow

    Good Job Mole.

    I wish the USD/CAD would make up its mind.  :)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    1382 seems to be overhead.

    http://s10.postimage.org/i9kqrzerr/temp3.png
    -Gerb

  • Curiousmind3861

    what a nail biter! Is step 2 of VIX going to be triggered today? lower BB at 15.4….

  • BobbyLow

    Well that was decent!  Closed out Long EUR/JPY +132 PIPs.  It’ll probably get embedded in the Upper Bands but “A bird in hand” and all that rot.  :)

    Also went Long GBP/USD at .5919

  • Ivan

     When an idea is internalised, it cannot be forgotten … when it is being learned it needs to be remembered … the context of a bar is far more important than whether a bar is an OP or an IP or even a DIP or TIP.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Heck, we need a translator! ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I don’t see any T’s.

  • Ivan

    Of the signs on the clean chart or the English into … ?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Was just a joke mate – you talked about ‘language of the market’.

  • Ivan

    I was … I have … I do.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    *Market Closed*

    does anybody know if the Markets are full or half open tomorrow?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    VIX closed the below the 2.0 BB. Back to step 1.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, +25 and counting on the day:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    aye caramba.
    it must get boring after a while…. 25 here, 30 there, 10 yonder.
    ?

  • bdoone

    full

  • ronebadger

    NICE!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Several weeks ago [Freaky Friday], I stated 635 on the S&P100 and it would snow.
    little did I know how long it would take to get there!
    but this isn’t about some level.

    This is about the 25 & 100 on the hourly.  Yes, Cap’n I’m a believer.  Less Futz’ing.
    chart link shows it.
    I also think that a challenge to the 100 is near, yeah upon us.

    http://s18.postimage.org/3tmvxejt3/25n100.png
    -Gerb

  • AMCabrera

    popped (sigh) placing it again below.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • AmazingLarry

    Anyone else see the ghost tail on AAPL that went up to 606 on the daily but was nowhere to be found on any other time period and has now disappeared? It was there on TOS, stockcharts, Yahoo, etc after close up until about 45 min ago and now poof, it’s gone. 

  • Skynard

    Shows up on the weekly though.

  • Skynard

    Mighty fine job on your new studies Mole, would you care to share them with the rats? Have been trying to duplicate them and do not have the expertise in that area.

  • Skynard

    Anyone take the /KC long?

  • amokta

    Just to check, i assume Ivan who has commenting recently is ‘the’ Ivan Krastins?
    Great to have him around! 

  • Ivan

    Accurate … happily and quietly in Vanuatu … off the beaten track … yet blessed with snail-net … well, not quiet that bad!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (Gerb keels over in jealousy)

  • Turps

    Mole, at the risk of being a pain….The Daily Zero

  • MonkeyBusiness

    that’s some crazy gap up during regular trading hour… fat finger?

  • Skynard

    Lol, empty bus goes round and round:)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Long 3 of the currency setups
    also out of last weeks aud/jpy
    Too early at84.80

  • Skynard

    Jen possible bounce, big picture is ugly. ST target .1206

  • fast and steady

    What kind of scumsucking European central banker makes a major announcement at 04:30 cet?

  • itcomesupinwaves

     What major announcement? there was no decision made..

  • fast and steady

     The first pr said that an agreement had been reached. Weird…

  • Skynard

    Wow, got some movement on the dollar. Re-shorting /DX 82.255 (62). Put a long /ES, time to buy the dips:)

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Is this a short term play or your expecting the ID setup to fail?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    Marketwatch:
    10:49p

    “Eurogroup meeting ends without agreement on Greece.”
    They had a meeting till 5 am local time?

  • Skynard

    Have been short and was stopped out. Happens to be the 100 daily, internals are not strong. Shake & Bake:)

  • Skynard

    This is very generous move, have put additional longs. Many the holidays begin:)

    By the way, not my favorite time of the year, but I’ll take it.

  • Skynard

    We have some div now on the AUD.

  • Skynard

    Don’t even pay attention to that crap anymore, want to buy an island is all:)

  • Skynard

    Never traded this one, like the doji on the daily just after extreme weekly/Daily OI. Looks like an ascending wedge. On the watch list:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Done!

  • AMCabrera

    good god /yen crosses. going short gbp/jpy literally nothing left to go for unless of course BRAND new shorts like myself start to appear en masse

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Was that a divergence on aud/jap to go short? 

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Ok, now the lights are out too. Let’s see if my shorts survive.

  • fast and steady

     Are you talking about the peaks above 0.5 in the zero?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     I am looking at the prices going up but 5m zero going weaker for the last 30+ mins. Well, that’s going to be a headshot if I nail it, or else, there goes my thanksgiving rations.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How’s the early morning crew? AMC – qué tal?

  • fast and steady

     I think you have nailed it bro.

  • BobbyLow

    Well so much for the cease fire in Gaza.  I thought it might last at least a day but I guess not.  

    And then there’s good ole Greece that has been an excuse for wild market machinations for about 3 years now.   Finance Ministers have a Deal – No wait they don’t- well maybe so maybe not.  Greece is like the movie “Groundhog Day”.

    In the end, there is only one guarantee in this business and that is:

    Trade the News and you will Lose.    

  • fast and steady

     Morning crew? Estoy aquí desde 07:00 am cet, jefe. :)

  • Ivan

    Au contraire … trade the reaction to the news … it works … quote from Earl Hadaday … today is a prime example as was yesterday … imo.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     hey tks! I hav cleared off 1/2 off the table too. Only for 12pips, but just in case…

  • BobbyLow

    Sure.  But isn’t it the tape that is traded and not the actual news itself?  The news is made up of words that may or not be true.  But price is always true because it is what it is.

  • Ivan

    My greatest ally is the emotion of the other trader, whilst my worst enemy is my own emotion … hence I am ‘trading’ me … in reality I just construct a campaign based of my 12 setups … this takes ‘me’ and ‘the tape’ out of the equation … it is the setup that produces the returns which I always measure a R factor, never as pips or $$.

  • ronebadger

    present, going to work now..

  • BobbyLow

    I never want to argue with success. 

    BTW, I learned a lot from Mole about dealing with emotion.  I’ve also learned a lot from Convict Scott (who I believe was your student) about back testing for positive expectancy, measuring in terms of R.  etc.  This is what I do.

    I have no expectations of results other than what I am doing has a greater probability of success than failure.  This is after countless hours, weeks, months of grinding numbers and 14 years experience in making about 75% of all mistakes there are to be made.

    I have to still be careful because there are 25% of all mistakes out there for me to find.   :)

  • Ivan

    It takes two to argue … lol … yes CS is a student of mine.

    There is only one mistake in my view … that is simply not humbly following your own RBT (Rule Based Trading) approach … very often the person who puts together their own robust RBT attempts to ‘beat’ it by … you get the idea.

  • MrMargin

    It’s the reaction to the news that is telling. Take some beaten down stock for instance. It’s constantly getting bombarded with a barrage of bad news. At some point, it won’t go down any further on bad news. That tells you that people have already priced in the worst case scenario which now makes it succeptible to rallying and possibly squeezing the shorts if there are enough of them. I believe, sentiment is very important as it provides context for price action and the reaction to news is how one can observe the market’s actual sentiment.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    trabajando desde casa hoy

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes.  priced in the worst case scenario.
    I believe the retail sucker fails to account for that.  They naively think the pricing occurs after the news and not before.

  • AMCabrera

    here kaiser.

  • AMCabrera

    lol eur/aud b/e at 1.2300…sometimes I wonder if oanda is after me.

  • AMCabrera

    /jpy crosses are increasingly becoming my main focus.

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely!

    Breaking my own rules is one of the most difficult things for me not to do and I have to constantly fight with myself not to do it.  This is part of the human condition I guess.

  • BobbyLow

    Bingo!

    This was actually the message I was trying to convey.  I might not have been as clear as I should have been because I’m not used to working the early shift.  :)

  • Ivan

    Human condition or human conditioning perhaps … are you just as tempted to break your ‘rules’ about how to drive a car … as in … open the door, get in, insert the key … look around … and then drive?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    this is where I say something about coffee
    and then you say something about closers

    but we will skip that. ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Estoy trabajando en case hoy.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Ivan, could you tell us a little bit about how you an CS met?
    it’s kind of a mystery.

  • Ivan

    Courtesy of a mutual friend … a guy by the name of Guy who I have known since early 90′s … Guy is a very successful die-hard fundamental stock trader … and was a total skeptic about TA etc … until he crossed my path.

  • BobbyLow

    Well the AUD/JPY appears to be embedded in the upper daily and hourly bands right now.  This is going to be a hell of a short at some point but not yet – at least not for me.  :)

  • AMCabrera

    im out of rhythm (eur/aud grabbing my b/e)  so just stepping back replacing my shorts in gbp/jpy

  • AMCabrera

    Yes these pairs have went ballistic and thats why I was not stepping in front of any of them since I saw there was plenty to go for in order book. I probably should have just waited this week out too. The monthly gbp/jpy is now above the 25 MA. However, since most of the time each candle is erased by the proceeding candle I think I will just try guerrilla attacks. 

  • bdoone

    FYI: Looking at Fibs from March hi/June low and 76.4% retracement is 85.30. 

  • fast and steady

    Negative divergence in eur/usd. 

  • BobbyLow

    Today’s high has been 85.42 so we’ll see what happens.  

  • Turps

    Thanks Mole! 

  • Skynard

    /DX falling off the plate, loose 81 again and will see a falling knife. Trying to stay on the right side of the knife is the key:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Not much shaking or baking today…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bullshit – you guys are hitting the same strip clubs…

  • AMCabrera

    blhahahaha





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