Sorting Out The Mess

If you are attempting to make sense out of the SPX or E-Mini by looking at the daily chart then you may be scratching your head right now. But don’t despair – the Mole is standing by to assist. Sometimes when the daily view lets you down it’s best to either zoom in our out to gain a better perspective.

And today it’s the short term panel that’s making the most sense. Apparently the 100-hour SMA is providing support since late last evening and after a bit of whipsaw it’s now pushing above the 25-hour SMA as well. Now that one will start to flatten out soon and probably follow the 100-hr up through Friday. Which means we’ll have a pretty solid support base to work with – if both SMAs fail then we’re heading lower. And if she holds then we’re probably going to climb the 25-hour higher as soon as it starts to swing back up. For now we are a bit in limbo land. The next chart is not helping to make things more clear unfortunately:

I posted this one yesterday and only minutes after I put it up the tape started dropping into the close. Coincidence? I think not. Well, we’re seeing similar shenanigans as yesterday – as I’m typing this the E-Mini is pushing sideways but SPX:VIX is continuing to drop.

Meanwhile over in the woodshed the Zero Lite is going complete flatline. Not surprising as Christmas is only days away – but this means pretty much anything can happen anytime. And it seems whoever is pricing volatility seems to agree.

I have a little goodie for the peanut gallery and there are two commodities plays for the subs. I would have loved to post some FX setups but TOS blew up their charts with their latest release (what else is new) and thus I can’t trust what I see on my indicators.

Anyway, ORCL is looking particular juicy today. It’s rather interesting to see an inside day after the bear stomping candle we saw yesterday. I would be tempted to play either breach with very small exposure. Any takers? ;-)

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 20th, 2012 at 1:52 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


  • Skynard

    Took profit /ES on the Mole signal.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Tks mole, keeping it frosty with tight stops. Am still profitable by a decent amt despite being stopped out twice ;)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They are not too bad today, are they?

  • Skynard

    Working well, 2 scalps for 12 pts already:) Tried to get long again 1435, did not fill.

  • bdoone

    VIX barely budged on that ES pop, amazing

  • AmazingLarry

    Keepin it as frost as Frosty the Snowman over here, boss. 

    The trading portion of my account is up 80% since I started here. Just thought I’d say thanks before the zombies take over tomorrow night. ;)

  • Skynard

    Bastards, /LBS squeese. Put the short back on:)

  • bdoone

     VIX keeps making new highs & thru BB’s with markets all green and day before Xmas break! Just WOW.

  • Skynard

    Next week after the holidays should be fun!

  • BobbyLow

    It was the night before crisis and all through the house
    Not an Evil Rat was stirring, not even a mouse
    My Forex Positions hung by the chimney with care
    In relief that my market exposure need not dare
    On Boehner, on Dasher, on Prancer and Vixen
    On Obama, on Cupid, on Donner and Blitzen!
    To the top of the podium, to the top of the wall
    Now, dash away, dash away, dash away all!”
    For you know you will deal and what we heard
    That the Market will await your every word
    Jesse said “every once in awhile go to cash”
    Then what better time to have a bash
    I heard him exclaim as Mole drove out of sight
    “Scalp away, scalp away and to all a goodnight”

  • bdoone

    “Something wicked this way comes…”

  • ronebadger

    witching weirdness?!?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I remember you being pretty skeptical when you showed up. Glad to hear things are working in your favor now.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e823332b-783b-4515-8868-44e30ee8af92/2012-12-20_1736.png
    eur/gbp is very intriguing. it is still underneath 8160 failing to make new highs and it seems that it is forming a breakout formation. Also, the US taxpayers will get the automatic treatment… 

  • AMCabrera

    Kaiser 4hr chart aud/jpy 25sma  

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Check out the Russell fin index (Riff). It is at the same place it reversed (909 give or take) on 4/15/10 and 2/18/11. SPX 1211 and 1343 on those dates and in each case made a nominal new high (even though the Russell didn’t) before a significant correction.

    What is striking is that after those corrections the SPX went on to make new highs even though the Russell fin. index never could break the 4/15/10 high with any conviction. One difference is that now the VIX is at the top of its (BB defined) range.

    To be convinced the SPX will make new highs I would have to see the Riff take 909 and then back test it. If the Riff stalls here I would be wary of longs (even if the SPX drifts up), if it breaks 909 with conviction (even better a back test with 909 serving as support) then 1500 here we come.

  • Skynard

    Well, if the market tanks precious should explode:)

  • AMCabrera

    Hmmm or markets were lagging

  • newbfxtrader

    Huh how do you get that? In a selloff silver will also tank and more so than gold. silver:gold ratio will go down.

  • newbfxtrader

    Looking good Senor!

  • Th3_Acist

    Market did not like the recess news…

  • AMCabrera

    Very nice now . I now need to see daddy fear bust in the room and. Start whipping everyone caught with their pants down.

  • thepercolator

    yeah that was a violent move down

  • AMCabrera

    Yee haw

  • Skynard

    Safety net, typically it has been. Why would it be any different?

  • Th3_Acist

    Ride it!

  • simonn1080

    Good God.. 50 point move from the highs at the close.

    WOW

  • BobbyLow

    Well I finally called one right!  Things have a way of changing but 18 to 20 Points down right now might turn into something tomorrow.  Who knows with this crazy market?

    In the past, I’ve held on to equity positions trying to guess one way or another which way the political winds would blow.   Guessing wrong 2 or 3 times in a row was enough for me.  

    When Boner showed the cold shoulder on Wednesday that was enough for me to get the fuck out of equities.  Logic does not matter with these assholes so why have any equity money at risk overnight when strong political risk is in the air?  
    Some times the best position is no position.  

    In the mean time, my Forex positions are looking very good at the moment.  :)

     

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    well well, Zerohedge was right.
    just stopped in to catch the comments.
    ;-D

  • Skynard

    Ya, fat finger again:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    you really should limit your block size.
    it’s scaring people. ;-)

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    yeah who knows if this holds….. but look what happened last time Riff hit these levels. down big time next day. check my prior comment for context. look at a chart. sorry don’t know how to post one… but wtf do I gotta spoon feed you guys, hey wait that’s Mole’s job ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    I wouldn’t want to hold the wide Russel with tonights little event.
    it has been an eager beaver lately.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01036713012

  • bdoone

    After 4pm bell I saw 65K eminis trade in 3 mins then another 35K the next 3 mins. Big ouch for the buyer…
    BTW, why are futs crashing when this bill wasn’t getting by senate anyway?  Is it just showing discord amongst Repubs to get anything done inhouse, much less with White House?
    Get good sleep tonite, tomorrow gonna be crazy…well except Skynard, he’s probably mainlining Columbias finest-coffee, that is- and pulling an all nighter.

  • Joe_Jones

    Ivan, is it the End of the World by you yet? ;-)

  • BobbyLow

    “BTW, why are futs crashing when this bill wasn’t getting by senate anyway? ”

    That is an excellent question also excellent logic.  But IMO, Conventional Logic and the Market appear to be mutually exclusive most of the time.     

  • Skynard

    Yen on fire:)

  • captainboom

    Sumbitch…  I’m busy whacking away at a database and I sit back and look up at my charts.  Glad I’m not long /ES  :-)

  • bdoone

    Out shopping so cant get fresh quotes but seeing SPY traded 144.92 at 8pm Eastern, which I dont get if ES down 20+…Plus SPY going ex-div tomorrow for 90 cents.
    Sitting in mall while wife & daughter work overtime on the credit cards.

  • AMCabrera

    Yes, but I think the real shocker was the rift in the republican party. I turned c span on to just watch for fun and I noticed that too many republicans were turning against him hence why I made the us taxpayer was getting the automatic treatment. That was for the first bill they passed I believe two hours later i guess it all falls apart.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    March ES down to 1416 
    stabilizing for the past 90min
    closer to 15pts down from the 8pm candle.

  • Skynard

    Think they will recover do ya? Long from 17.25:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    I’m looking at the AUD/JPY.
    I’ve been calling for an end of a 2year T.

    the last 3 daily candles have been red, tomorrow could be the center of a V move.
    then a few more (matching) days up for EOY.
    and then ‘lights out’.

  • newbfxtrader

    U feel lucky? Well do ya?!

  • captainboom

    Mole’s SPX:VIX chart is classic.  Sniffed out the end of the /ES world before it happened.  Now /ES is in no-man’s land on the hourly.  Daily NLSL at 1409.25 and weekly at 1383.

  • Skynard

    Hey, OPX anything can happen. How about a 1430 open:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    gambler! (look of shock)

  • Skynard

    Max pain was 1410, how often does that work out:)

  • Skynard

    Violent moves like this is a day/night traders paradise:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    what was it you said last month?
    Tis the Season.

  • Skynard

    Silver extreme & volume, see what happens:)

  • BobbyLow

    AMC are you still short NZD?  

  • FSUinArizona

    Because Boehner could not get enough votes for any tax increase ($1M income), Obama will not accept any deal without tax increases … No possibility for Obama and Boehner to reach a deal, won’t pass the house.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m just monitoring the Forex action and when it’s going good it is very addictive.   Just what I needed – another fricken addiction.   :)

      

  • Skynard

    Not that it matters, what if a deal is reached tomorrow. Will the market rally to 1500?

  • BobbyLow

    Does a Bear Shit in the Woods?   :)

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol reduce positions and short the next rally.  I will be short for the next few weeks. But I trade long term.

  • Skynard

     Lol, join the club. It is a profession:)

  • BobbyLow

    Labor of love.  lol

  • FSUinArizona

    Sure it will rally, but for how long, the deal won’t pass the house.

  • FSUinArizona

    Picked up 50 atm
    SDS calls into the close that expire tomorrow. What to do at the open? If down big, will sell half to close and bank some$, let the rest ride a bit.

    Suggestions?

  • BobbyLow

    Newb,

    My Forex trades are now planned to last a few days or longer.   I guess Long term is in the eyes of the beholder.  LOL

    My back testing has shown a lot of choppyness from now until after the first of the year.  So what I’m going to do is close out and take all the profit on two pairs right now because they have  decent gains and seem to be stalling.  And I’ll keep my Short NZD Pairs for awhile longer and see what happens.  

    That way I can go to bed.   

    Have a good night.  :)

  • AmazingLarry

    Sky, did you accidentally have your elbow on the enter key again? :D That was tasty.

  • Joe_Jones

    hehehe, back at the volume hole in a jiffy. Market’s sumbitch indeed.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    no advice for the open, ah the memories.
    for the second half, if SDS hits $61.00 sell and don’t look back!
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70828992951

  • Skynard

    Lol, it was a magazine that I laid down on top on my desk. Little did I know it was pressing on the enter key:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Right now he had a big dump in the bull’s pen. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    i want to see the center spread ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    you have to be a sub
    =P

  • FSUinArizona

    That would be big $ mone and no doubt I am out

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    no doubt.
    but those other lines might help you out.
    I’m particularly proud of that chart, if you open it up to 2 or 3 years.
    you’ll see it’s custom fitted like a leather boot on a supermodel.
    it should serve you well.
    -Gerb

  • FSUinArizona

    Will try and put it to use, thanks

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • itcomesupinwaves

     Nice ID + NR7 setup on GBPUSD here.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    slaps head and rolls eyes …. nope it will rally to 1500 IF the Riff breaks 909 with conviction. Jeez didn’t I already explain that? ;-) just playin’ with ya

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    These days holding for three days feels like an eternity.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, 17.25 held up. Let’s rally!

  • Skynard

    By chance did anyone catch that 50 pt. drop?

  • newbfxtrader

    No but I had taken some new shorts eur/jpy that worked well.

  • Skynard

    Last night was looking for a short entry /ES when it tanked, it was mezmerizing:) Did scalp a Yen long though. Will flip my /ES long at 100 hourly.

  • newbfxtrader

    Dont really trade the /es much. Had some /6n and /6a shorts that did well. But /6j longs still lagging. Incredible weakness in the yen. long term (10yr) charts on the yen looks extremely bearish. I am thinking next year could be trouble for the yen. Massive head and shoulders on the long term chat.

  • Skynard

    Nice, curious to see what happens today. Europe and Asia not that far off the mark.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. Europe barely budged. Another rally in the currencies would be welcome. I will reload some shorts for the next few weeks. Looking for parity on aud/usd and similar depth of changes on the kiwi. I dont really meddle with the euro or GBP. Its hard to figure out which way they can turn.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Did ES really drop to 1384 last night on Boehner’s boner, or is that a data phantom?

  • captainboom

    Yes it did.  I’ve got a pin bar down to 1391.25 on /ES, on multiple data providers.

  • Schwerepunkt

    IB shows a low of 1384 on the candle. Loooooooooooooong tail.

  • captainboom

    I use IB as well, and am only seeing 1391.25.
    Edit: March contract.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Mine shows 1384. I wasn’t running it over night though. Perhaps it’s in error. Not sure, but it would be good to know.

  • Skynard

    Thought it was 1391.25.

  • bdoone

    I use IB and also getting 1391.25

  • newbfxtrader

    Thats what I got.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    that’s what I have (March /ES)
    and it is very real.
    one minute candle down, one minute candle up.

  • Skynard

    Now we have a target, ah?

  • Skynard

    Right, understand that one:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • bdoone

    SPY ex-div today for $1.02 so as bad as its current -$2.90 looks, take into account that it was going to open approx. down a buck regardless.

  • newbfxtrader

    you know its going to be retested…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    Cue Virgin Sacrifice…Mole briefing in 3…2…1…

    (I Hope its an Epic one, Mayan Date today)

    http://s12.postimage.org/i2vk8ge65/2012.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Quote of the day: Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I hope nobody here had a 50-pt stop taken out overnight. That would SUCK.

  • bdoone

    Boehner speaking 1/2hr.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Tomorrow is a Bradley turn date.
    Although these dates have a questionable reliability, the last 3 where pretty good for a change of direction.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Got my tinfoil hat on . . . 

  • Skynard

    5 min signal still up!

  • AmazingLarry

    VIX almost tagged 20 there.

  • ridingwaves

    miners turning green..silver holding…crazy…

    seems like a Jordan Headfake…

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AI0gk2KJeho
    out of nzd/usd shorts that was taken at 8350. Im still keeping my aud and aud/usd shorts I still have usd/sek longs…I do not like this song. But it is just to illustrate the attitude of markets. They can make you dance if your not careful.

  • AMCabrera

    out of them sir. I only have aud, sek, cad shorts usd jpy longs.

  • Skynard

    That is a realatively small signal for this sell off.

  • AMCabrera

    Mole the usd/cad is really looking good uh.

  • ridingwaves

    if financials turn…green would complete the xmas theme..watching them closely

  • AMCabrera

    if you did not buy the spx yesterday or past two days this sell off is not that serious yet.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Nazdaq A/D has 3rd lowest reading since summer.
    I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the market just got blown up. What if there will not be a Xmas rally?

  • Skynard

    Hourly turned up! Div on the hourly now.

  • AMCabrera

    closing up some of my aud short adding more sek shorts

  • ridingwaves

    weekly is still green..

  • newbfxtrader

    Is SEK like a safe haven currency? I never traded it.

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve closed out everything except for my NZD/USD and NZD/JPY Shorts.  I just put tight stops on them to protect some decent profit.  I would just as soon go into the holidays in 100% Cash especially with the political BS going on.

    These last 8 Trading Days have been berry berry good.  :)

  • newbfxtrader

    Good work. I will cover kiwi shorts 500 pips down….

  • AMCabrera

    good question it could be consider that. I have thought of it being a safe haven in normal downturns

  • Skynard

    Flat /es 24.5

  • BobbyLow

    Stopped on remaining NZD.  

    Now in 100% Cash

  • ronebadger

    “Probably not a trend day”…might be all we need to know today…

  • captainboom

    Think we’ll get a VWAP test?

  • Skynard

    Yep, long there or on a Mole signal. Think the bulls wanted to empy the bus today:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    the trend signal does not take into account overnight action. So, doesn’t that mean the up trend we’ve seen from the open will likely fade? 

  • Skynard

    Whats up with /LBS? Did not open yet?

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Newb,

    I had Kiwi Pair Shorts from all over the Globe.  The total pips down covered were 525.

    These trades were decent and followed other decent trades over the past 8 days.  

    In the past after having a good run, this is when I would probably do something stupid.   The holidays, political turmoil and past experiences are telling me to sit on my hands until after the first of the year.  :)

  • newbfxtrader

    Dont feed the leeches…

  • ronebadger

    Don’t know… the markets go up….the markets go down…yeah, panic overnite, but not a HUGE panic today, so far….

  • Schwerepunkt

    . . . sucking blood is just my pastime. It’s not a career choice though.

  • ronebadger

    No giveaway… it always “Not a trend day” with me

  • newbfxtrader

    Nice work. nzd/jpy RSI reached 85 not seen last few years. My trades are longer term. Stops are in locking in some profit but I give it wide room. It could easily get to 65-66 before finding support. Enjoy your holidays. After all thats why you are banking coin for right?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Time to take profit on USD.CAD. 

  • Curiousmind3861

    I was just thinking about. It is outside its upper BB in many time frame. Will you reload once it retraces?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Considering that when it tests the 100-hr.

  • Curiousmind3861

    where is the 100 hr at now?

  • Schwerepunkt

    100-hr .9865. 25-hr .9897.

  • Curiousmind3861

    Thanks

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    /ZS recovering from 3 day thrashing, might get an inside day
    Above its 25 hourly

  • Skynard

    at last night’s support, now long

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    -6.4! Now long as well… reluctantly 

  • Curiousmind3861

    closed my USDCAD long for 86 pips, will reload later

  • Schwerepunkt

    What about 1391.25?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Keep it frosty though. If equities take a 2nd leg down, would be an opportunity to jump back on it. I’m not expecting it today.

  • Skynard

    Not today me thinks, save that for next week:)

  • bdoone

    Same here, with tight leash. Failure could lead to waterfall as bulls trip over themselves trying to get out.

  • Skynard

    Again, tight leash. This thing can go either way. If 16 taken out have sell order in.

  • Skynard

    Triple witch, this thing can put the boosters on here.

  • AMCabrera

    Me too but I just went long USD/nok

  • Schwerepunkt

    Need to watch for a VIX buy signal sequence.

  • newbfxtrader

    Zeros been going wild today.

  • AmazingLarry

    I agree. In XIV for the day. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    U got some brass spheres.

  • Skynard

    ZL buy point me thinks:)

  • bdoone

    SPY max pain was 142 on Weds.  Today its 147.  Looks like mass call buying in 145-146-147 calls.
    Big put volume is 142-143 strikes so SPY above 143 hurts most.
    All bets off if 1416 falls but may be building some support here.

  • Skynard

    Nice, thanks for that:)

  • Skynard

    May see a big move in precious if the dollar fades now. Theres the stop nun.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Here comes the test of 1416.25, or 50% of the 50-pt down move last night.

  • Curiousmind3861

    chickened out of my GBPUSD short last night when it wasn’t moving…sigh….100 pips profit misses there…

  • Skynard

    XIX tanking:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX?

  • Curiousmind3861

    will VIX gap fill today?

  • AmazingLarry

    And I got the PPT! 

  • Skynard

    Marines are now in the building:)

  • Skynard

    Very possible, don’t know that one. Been droping like a rock.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • thepercolator

    It was lock limit up the entire day.  I think we’re getting very close to a significant and hopefully blow top.  84% Bulls highest in last 4 years!





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