Escape From Siberia

So here I was at Orly – shivering in my seat and incredulously watching some death defying ground support team hose the wings of our plane with hot water in order to blast off of all the ice. Which by the way accumulated in a matter of 30 minutes as it was pouring down snow like in a Siberian gulag. I have flown planes myself in the past – small ones, like Pipers and Cessnas. So I’m aware that it’s not the snow that’ll get you – it’s the iced up up wings. And quite frankly I do enjoy flying and have been through my share of bad weather. But I’d be lying if I said that I wasn’t thinking whether it may be best to catch another flight there yesterday.

In the end we all made it to Valencia safe and sound. And what a difference 800 miles can make! I get out of the plane around 1:00am in the morning and it must have been around 50 Fahrenheit (ca. 10 Celsius). Today during the afternoon temperatures climbed up to 18 Celsius (approx. 65) and this weekend it’s supposed to turn 23 (~73 F). Suffice to say I’ll be enjoying every minute of it.

I’m happy to report that I’m actually feeling pretty well today – after consuming copious amounts of Oscillococcinum and fluids I think I may have actually made it out of the Gallic winter hellhole without either catching a flu or a cold. I guess it may be time to pick a religion…

Let’s get to the tape. The spoos are in shake out mode and I hope you haven’t gotten caught in the middle of today’s gyrations – it’s been running like a hare! Yes volatility is at rock bottom and yes the volume profile map is suggesting a ceiling. BUT that doesn’t mean the bears are going to take over the steering wheel here. Especially if everyone thinks it’s going to happen.

Always remember – what everyone knows isn’t worth knowing. Let’s look at the facts here – despite plenty of volume until 1148 we turned near 1459 this morning. Which by the way was a very productive candle from a technical perspective as it now presents us with a triple tested diagonal support line. And that means going forward we have some technical support to hang our hats on. As long as this diagonal remains intact the ongoing trend should do the same.

I guess you know about AAPL taking a nose dive and I’m sure you recall that I mentioned to watch it as our proverbial canary in the coal mine. Now, the 500 mark has been taken out and that’s worrisome. But we do now have quite some sturdy LT support waiting below – just so happens that the 100-week and 25-month SMAs line up near 475. So I say let’s give that support zone a chance and if we breach it then we have further confirmation that this rally in equities may be running on long in the tooth.

Before we get to the setups some musings on the Dollar (my problem child). As you can see the DX has been approaching its lower LT support line. There’s also the 25-month SMA right below and I think that 78.5ish will be an important inflection point for the old greenback.

If that gives then I think the bearish PO on our P&F chart would be almost but certain. Not a great prospect for this expat living in Europe.

Bonds – the 10-year is at its own diagonal and I want to be short here before I want to be long (you know the drill). YOu can use the 25-hour SMA for more fine tuning. So far it’s been supportive but I expect resistance to kick in here quickly. If it doesn’t then I probably want to be long with a stop below the 25-h.

AUD/JPY – we have quite a number of FX setups tonight. I think that daily NLSL breach is hard to pass up. I’m short right now with a stop above both hourly SMAs. Long if we bust back above the daily NLSL. Simple.

Facebook – now actually breaching below its 100-hour. And that means I’m short with a stop above. If we recover then I’ll jump into a long position.

Walmart has been pushing sideways recently and I’m sensing some indecision here. On the daily panel it’s about to collide with its 25-day SMA. Which means I will be short as soon as I see a breach of that 100-hour SMA.

Maco-do-nardo – no kidding, that’s how they say it in Japan: It already tested its daily NLSL and I’m long with a stop below the 100-hour. Not a complicated setup. I may get short if we see a breach.

INTC – long on recovery of the 25-hour. I like the context here and would love to catch a ride on the 100-day breach bus. If we decides to stop by that is.

BAC – long if it pops back above the 25-hour SMA. Which would mean we are in a 25-day SMA bounce setup.

USD/JPY – it’s recovered a bit since this snapshot and I want to be long if it makes it above both ST SMAs.

USD/CHF about to run into daily resistance. I think the setup is clear.

Cable on the fence – I’m currently short with a stop above the 25-hour.

EUR/JPY – sitting at ST support – I’m long with a stop below.

CAD/JPY – I’m still short but think this may turn into a long if we pop above the 100-hour. Also a recovery of the daily NLSL would be my signal to get out and flip it for a long.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 15th, 2013 at 2:41 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


  • Guest11235

    I have a question 

  • AMCabrera

    thank you mole. you better stop risking your life. I really really do not want to reanimate you.l

  • Skynard

    If the SPX does not make a new high will be very bearish!

  • AMCabrera
  • ridingwaves

    tape smells like distribution. watching financials like a hawk…not a seahawk…

  • Skynard

    Flipped /ES, now short on the failure! Loaded up on puts:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Interesting… http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9804444/Bundesbank-to-pull-gold-from-New-York-and-Paris-in-watershed-moment.html

  • Joe_Jones

    time to complete those physical purchases

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     A, that mo-fo Sinclair is all over it.
    Bogus news. Actually not news at all, as people involved new about it for weeks (if not months), and visibly Gold is not impressed.
    Any time I see Sinclair name, I stop reading
    JM2C

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Barbarous metal, who would want that?
    (always watch what they do, not what they say)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     If you buying physical, you must not time the market. Why? As a holder of bullion you must never sell, so purchase price and timing are irrelevant. When people ask me : “How much Gold do I need?”, I always answer : “Enough”
    LOL

  • ridingwaves

    it was announced that they would inspect the holdings previously, now they want the gold…how is it bogus? Trust between central bankers is breaking down faster than Lindsay Lohan in a courtroom is my take…

    on another note..GS hit 180sma and is now backing off…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Totally agree with the Sinclair sentiment – been there done that ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Fully agree. I buy physical in small bits whenever I can. However, Germany’s withdrawal from the FED, if it indeed happens, could trigger some “panicked crowd” effect, kinda like with the guns and ammo recently.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     I am not saying that the news is a lie. Not at all. They will take the gold, ok. I just don’t think it’s THAT important, or will have any implications for price of gold 2 weeks from now

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very good question and the answer is – it depends on the context. If I for instance have an SMA nearby that’s also being breached (see above for examples) I may jump in early on the trigger. It also depends on what the range is on the inside candle – if it’s small I don’t mind jumping back/forth a few times as stops are easily managed. It also depends on your trading style. I for instance don’t mind a bit of churn/TLC to keep on the right side. Some others may want to see a few ticks of progress or perhaps a retest of the trigger line. There are many variations on the theme. I hope this doesn’t sound like I’m waffling. Truth is that there is no fool-proof way to catch a breach. Sometimes it works like a charm and then there are times when you get jacked around a few times. Some symbols are easier than others in that department.

  • Joe_Jones

    I don’t think it will impact the price of gold, rather the availability at your bullion dealer.

  • Skynard

    Awesome div on the 5 min.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    News are usually inconsequential to us traders. But I find this interesting from a very LT perspective. There have been many many pertinent rumors and now we’ll see if they are substantiated. Would be very interesting if there were problems covering those return requests.

  • Joe_Jones

    indeed. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I second that sentiment.

  • bdoone

    Markets at major inflection points, highs etc., VIX 13.5 and coming into meat of earnings.  This should be interesting 2 weeks!
    EDIT: then again, after the past 9 days anything should be more interesting.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Since you mention “problem in delivery”.
     I have a variant perception of PM in general. Everything works backwards. For example, when Eric Sprott was starting PSLV there was a big shortage of silver bullion. People where expecting Silver to explode, because of this one huge buyer from Canada (I thing they breed those mo-fo’s artificially up there). Silver actually dropped, he got his delivery and only months later the big advance started.
    Gold and Silver markets are so small, they can do the wildest things.
    As for LT, Gold will be higher in 2013 or 2213. He-He

  • Guest11235

    Mole, thank you…I don’t think you are waffling at all, stop movement is rarely an exact science (in my experience)

    this is helpful and I’ll continue to do some of my own experimentation on these trades 

    thanks again  

  • Skynard

    Ya, to bad thought they had the game all wrapped up. Good game!

  • Skynard

    That was the ultimate tape, wish every day was like it:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – I have been trading COMEX back in the days. I know what they are doing and since then have developed a pretty good feel of when to jump in. As you know I’m not in the goldbug camp. It’s a metal – long term it’s better than any fiat currency. And by long term I mean decades.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • carmelbythesea
  • Skynard

    Hehe, /NKD go boom!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nope – beautiful Valencia. And yes, despite what many people claim the Spaniards are very nice and warm people. Really enjoying my life here. Very different from artificial and pretentious Los Angeles. Which I love in a different way but right now I’m happier here.

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky I wasnt around to short /nkd. Did you take it? Whats a good entry you see?

  • newbfxtrader

    Happy for you Mole. Changing countries is not easy.

  • Skynard

    Shorted at the 50 retrace. This thing moves in 2% increments, it just breached the low. It’s still chasing but a short with a stop just above resistance. Check out where it’s sitting now. Late for the party though!

  • newbfxtrader

    Damn I gave you a heads up this morning! Send me a cheque…

  • newbfxtrader

    Then yen short bus is completely full. It could go up a good deal. Try some more /6j. Remember to get out before that BOJ meeting.

  • Skynard

    Lol, it’s in the mail. Been watching that sucka for the past 2 weeks now and called both div’s on the Yen. It was it’s destiny:)

  • Skynard

    Time to back up half a truck load. Loaded up AUD & NZD!

  • newbfxtrader

    NZD yes. Aud not yet. Still strong. Probably waiting for China GDP. GBP yes. Eur yes.

  • newbfxtrader

    Wait for aud/usd to get below 1.0520.

  • Skynard

    Already shorted, fire at will:)

    Looking for a ride to 1.02

  • Joe_Jones

    I wish I could give you 10 likes for that chart

  • Joe_Jones

    hehehe, looks like groundhog day futures side. 

  • Skynard

    Won’t take much to sway this market now, exhaustion has filled most indices now and it it showing:)

  • Skynard

    /SB chart. Ready to launch:)

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    can’t claim credit.
    It’s T Laundrys’
    RIP.

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks for sharing though

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Yen up?
    Go Go Gadget Yen!

    how’s that divergence doing Sky?

    http://shirtoid.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/go-go-gadget-1.jpg

  • newbfxtrader

    Did you make a sacrifice?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I couldn’t find a Virgin on such short notice.

  • Skynard

    375 and off to the races:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it would be nice to see 93 break.  with a move down to 92.

    http://s1.postimage.org/onvu7srdp/temp1.png

  • Skynard

    First target 92.33 (Daily NLSL)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    do /ES & AUDJPY not always dance together?

    http://s1.postimage.org/blwtw3frz/temp2.png

  • Skynard

    Currencies will lead and indices eventually follow. /ES will realize it tonight and run along:)

  • JackSparow

    could go either way ?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that’s what I was thinking.
    New Years divergence was a lesson for me.
    let’s see if this one plays out.

  • Skynard

    Leaning towards a long since that HUGE div can play out:) Currently long from 86 and today looked like the shake out:)

  • JackSparow

    Thanks will follow

  • Darkthirty

    Should be in wave 3 after a perfect 78.6% retrace today. That goofy star watcher Merriman says tomorrow is the conjunction of pluto and venus……

  • Skynard

    Think the market sucked in some bulls?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    so, you have any Opinion on lunar events?
    first quarter moon on the 18th. I believe INTC announces on the 17th close.
    http://www.calendar-365.com/moon/moon-phases.html

  • Darkthirty

    New and full usually reverse, haven’t paid any attention to the quarters. professional EMT/FF for 25 years, guaranteed the moons do create lunartics

  • Darkthirty

    Dunno, isn’t there a chart on that somewhere?

  • Joe_Jones

    Some of us rats need to check ourselves with a Geiger counter: 
    http://www.mentalfloss.com/article/33497/8-government-conspiracy-theories-and-how-they-could-be-right
     

  • captainboom

    That’s what accounts for my glowing personality ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL! 
    “Non sibi sed patriae” as they  say…

  • newbfxtrader
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Since the markets have mostly ignored AAPL collapse so far, is this not an indication that the markets are stronger than maybe people are thinking? If AAPL recovers there could be an added boost to this rally..might be the impetus for Moles S&P target (P&F)?  It seems that bears are still eager to jump on any “red” days; doesn’t strike me as right environment for start for sustained bear move..

  • Skynard

    Agree with you after a much needed correction.

  • Skynard

    /SB tested lows and should be ready now:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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