Briefing Du Jeudi Matin

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Public Service Announcement: Yes, the rumors are true – the Mole will be traveling again. This time I’m heading to Paris for a few days and I am scheduled to return to lovely Valencia Monday night (obligatory French strikes notwithstanding). If you’ve been visting here for a while then you may know what this means: Nearly every time I hit the road there seems to be a market correction (while I don’t have access of course). At least that’s the inside joke around them parts. Now seriously, please stick to your charts and don’t load up on puts based on Mole’s travel schedule ;-)

Anyway, my next post will be Monday morning – in the interim you can expect all services to run as normal. If anything significant happens then I’m sure I’ll put up some charts – no worries. So until I’m back in the evil lair I am hoping for a bit more of this sideways tape. Let’s have the VIX drop below 13 while we’re at, shall we? (one can dream)

Cocoa breached yesterday’s long ID threshold. Now back at the 100-hour SMA and that makes another great entry opportunity. Either the long ID trigger was a fake out (and we drop from here) or we pop higher and thus have confirmation.

Cable is refusing to die and is once again kissing its 100-hour SMA. I’m currently still short but have set up my workstation to flip it for a long (with a stop below the SMA) if we breach higher. You may look at the daily panel as well as this may be a last kiss goodbye. So if you missed the first daily setup then you’re in luck as this retests usually resolve very well. Once they pick a direction we usually get continuation (i.e. ~70% of the time). I love retests – some of my favorite entry opportunities.

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 10th, 2013 at 7:50 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    Bon Voyage Mon Ami

  • AmazingLarry

    Cotton looks great. Wedged between the 200 and 100 daily SMA’s and above the 20 on the monthly. Daily BB suggests it needs to pick a direction. 

    Have a great get-away, Moleman. 

  • Skynard

    Have a good trip!

  • RacerXX

    Have a good trip. You’ll get some decent coffee maybe?

  • Skynard

    Long /OJ now, let it snow in FL:)
     
    Thanks Percolator, owe you a few beers now.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I think he gets decent coffee in Spain! 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    Le temps et l’usage rendent l’homme sage

  • Joe_Jones

    Celui qui se couche avec le cul qui gratte se lève avec le doigt qui pue… ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    I get my wish for the ramp today, at least for the open.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Oh well, dollar trashed. Up we go, flipped to the long side now.

  • itslance

    Closed out my lottery tickets from yesterday, but I’m hesitating opening a long position just yet. I don’t trust the VIX at 10 and I’m not that good to play games :)

  • Skynard

    My long triggered at the break of the high, will more than likely close the position end of the week. Could see downside next week now instead.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup, the only movement we get in equities is when she gaps in the morning.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup, looks like they’re not going to let this thing over the fence. This has been going on for a while now – at important key levels they throw in the kitchen sink. Frustrates the Dollar bulls and eventually generates another sell off.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Only 13.5? Come on! You can do better!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    USD/NOK….Timbeeeeeeerrrrrrr

  • AMCabrera

    yea that mofo was a no show for me two days ago since. Not to mention it pretty much models the eur/usd soo I stop that trade. Although if it reaches 5.5100 Ill buy.

  • Joe_Jones

    how appropriate…

  • Joe_Jones

    Full position short now thru SQQQ, VXX and HL puts

    I call this ramp the final BS before the dive

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See, there was a reason I waited. It somehow didn’t feel like a top yet. And not enough monkey business on the vol ratio side.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, that’s a stop out on the dollar side. 

  • itslance

    Long LVS

  • Joe_Jones

    I hear you Boss. ;-) 
    Now, please go finish packing your bags and don’t miss that flight. My steak depends on it ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, at least the cable trade is on track.

  • Joe_Jones

    In this world of algo HFT, volume holes and abysses are the human trader best friends. 

  • AMCabrera

    say does the usd/nok and nzd/usd both make sort of a T? daily charts.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/1e66f03b-5731-43ce-931d-ba26e2a7514f/2013-01-10_1006.png

    as they say in the south good god o mighty. A stupid up slope is always paired with a stupid down slope. Changing my take profit. It almost hit 93.50…. cowards.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    inverse T on the NOK.
    I said watch out for the 8th.  missed by 2 days.  ;-)

    http://s7.postimage.org/koa1w51mz/usdnok.png

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    is zero lite working?

  • captainboom

    Working for me.

  • itslance

    IRE just broke out through its 52 week high and is incredibly overbought.  I don’t have the stones, but might be a good for one of the more seasoned veterans around here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, why not?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t scare me, I was about to head to the airport!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think he’s just trying to freak me out. Nice try!!

  • itslance

    Maybe he’s long and trying to delay your departure ;)

  • Joe_Jones

    make sense ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    It is working perfectly. Now, please go. ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • bdoone

    VIX won’t go green until Mole is wheels up!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Would like a gap fill to go long SPY calls.

  • Ronebadger

    Silver is cranking nicely….any comments?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     I had went long at the gap fill just now already. Only a couple of points in the green, but curious to see how the day turns up.

  • itslance

    If you don’t mind my asking, what calls do you usually trade for SPY?  I feel like I always get burned, even when I get the delta and vega positions correct.  I’m more interested in front week calls now that mole mentioned that they aren’t affected by theta or gamma.

  • Joe_Jones

    Unless SPX 1474 is taken, it is possible that today could end up as a failed retest of the 2012 high.

  • Skynard

    In SPY front 170

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Very hard to read. Couple of days ago it looked like starting to collapse, but didn’t. So now is a larger move in opposite direction. Just watching

  • Skynard

    Mostly extremely short term, a day like today on the pull back (gap fill) positioned long 147 which expire tomorrow. Was thinking the same thing. Next week could be trouble so if we get a good rally will position short for a pullback next week. Took the trade in anticipation of gap fill with the div on 5 min ZL.

  • itslance

    Do you typically hold overnight or just hold during market hours?

  • Skynard

    Would love to see 32 tomorrow, have calls which expire. The way it looks we might do that.

  • Skynard

    Very rarely unless they are long term options.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    look at the P&F chart.
    it’s been in this price range for a loooong time.
    short term, it’s banging between 29 & 30.

  • Skynard

    Hehe, should play out nicely!

  • Ronebadger

    mine expire next week

  • Skynard

    Hell, plenty of time if the market continues this rally to 1500+

  • Joe_Jones

    Silver should explode if SPX makes a new high above 1474. Until then, I’ll short it.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    so ,is today a trend day?
    come on, you can tell me.
    (I can see Mole about to board, check his smart phone one last time, freaking out)
    ;-D

  • bdoone

    AUD/JPY & financials just don’t want to give it up. BKX +.80%

  • Joe_Jones

    If you look at the 5 min TICK this a.m. you’ll get your answer

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    looking at /ES it looks like a OpX Wednesday!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     grabbed more at the slightly lower low. Now all cleared and going to sleep. GL!

  • captainboom

    You can make an educated guess by watching TICK yourself.  Something to do while you run on your gerbil wheel ;-)

  • AmazingLarry

    Will someone please short V or MA before my blood pressure goes more parabolic. Let me guess, wall street will be “disappointed” with last quarter’s earnings? Unfucking real. 

  • AMCabrera

    dg 93.50 must be a very nice one. It will not touch.

  • bdoone

    If ES in a bear flag will need to resolve here: Daily R1 1459.75, VWAP area & 50% retrace.

  • Joe_Jones

    Squeezing the last drop of blood from bears until they are bone dried.

  • bdoone

    Latest AAII Sentiment:
    January 10:46.45%26.63%26.92%January 3:38.71%25.09%36.20%

  • Curiousmind3861

    dollar crashing, EUR +200 pips in 12 hours, simply unbelievable!! 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    John Maynard Keynes once stated that the markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent

  • Curiousmind3861

    anyone here think that USDJPY might have double topped?? or it will just keep going UP??

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    Yes it is, would have loved that one:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    if you look at a multi year chart.
    there was some support/resist around 89/90.
    New Year of ’09, and close/open of Spring ’10.
    (monthly candles)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    Stop & Stop Limit Orders change.
    interesting. [take that HFT’s]

    http://www.finra.org/web/groups/industry/@ip/@reg/@notice/documents/notices/p196493.pdf

  • Skynard

    That “IS” a bull flag 5 min:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    yeah, it’s a tough nut.
    here’s a close up, best I can.

    http://s1.postimage.org/xdm0zjs0f/toughnut.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    Jedi Hand wave..

  • Joe_Jones

    A new way to skin the cat?

  • Joe_Jones

    Already lunch time done, back to work rats! ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    HA!
    wrong time zone, (*Gerb begins munching a crumb*).

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    triggers based on Last Transaction, instead of Bid/Ask.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    VWAP, i’m sensing VWAP in the Force.
    somebody say VWAP.

  • AmazingLarry

    Veee whap!

    Mole’s platinum cube got a little more valuable today. Missed the NLBL entry the other day cause i suck at investmentz. 

  • itslance

    Everybody going short at 1474 with a tight stop, I assume?

  • bdoone

    The thing is ‘the market knows’ everybody is looking to short there so it may not get there or blow right through; however, it it gets close today on some nice +1200 TICK readings, then it’s a good short.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    +1200 TICKs, (Gerb slaps forehead, I forgot)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Lets get there first.

  • Skynard

    Out of those 147 @ .3

  • Skynard

    Pulled the trigger, now short /ES @ 66.

  • captainboom

    Brass cojones my friend.  Did you look at the Zero first?

  • Skynard

    Stainless steel!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    *Market Close < 30min*

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    This doesn’t require an immediate attention.
    3 year weekly chart of grains etf JJG.
    61.8% Fib again. Any takers?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well, apparently I got stopped out.
    YCS (Yen short) at 52.38 exit

    funny thing is my chart at that time never got lower than 52.39

    route: KNIGHT CAPITAL, joy.

    crooks.

    ah well, AUD/JPY 93.496 – close enough.

  • captainboom

    Silly me… What *was* I thinking.

  • AmazingLarry

    Been watching it for awhile. I’m not going anywhere near it even for a bounce. Vol hole lining up with gap fill lining up with previous support lining up with support TL and my proprietary indicator system (don’t laugh! lol) says “stay back” still. Wait till summer. 

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Do you watch TICK? It looks ‘odd’ last 45 minutes,
    declining trend against price

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (Gerb took small Yen Long position)
    this could run for a few days.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Nice chart! I didn’t see that vol hole. Thanks
    Now i have more worries to consider…lol

  • newbfxtrader

    Finally. Is it time for that?

  • Curiousmind3861

    good call on AUDJPY, it hit 93.5+. Shoulda listened to you…How are you long yen? usdjpy?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yep.
    a target is a target.

  • bdoone

    look at that bitch go

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    long yen. small position,
    this train could run me over next several days. (so really small position).
    add on a reversal.

    and yes, I remember 87/89 call outs, with 90 max.
    93? muwahahaha, unbelieveable.

  • Skynard

    Near end of day at resistence, had to do it:)

  • Curiousmind3861

    what just happened to yen? usdjpy high 88.7, maybe because I am long yen…sigh…sorry guys.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    here, I use this link.
    if anybody has better, cough it up.

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=h1

  • AmazingLarry

    Softs (JJS) are slooowly getting closer. I just keep stacking cash and take small positions based on daily and weekly action. No positions yet. Sitting on 78.6 and LT support right now. Just needs to move East a bit more and then, perhaps, north? Nice divergence off the bottom with slightly rising volume. Accumulation?

  • Skynard

    AUDJPY, that is one full head of steam! New target, 103:)

  • itslance

    Nice trade!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    quite possible.
    if history rhymes, a two month pull back.
    I think the Media can pull it off.

    http://s7.postimage.org/qwwxxuf3v/hope.png

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     How do you handle these illiquid etf’s ? Todays volume on JJS is 0.
    The only soft i watch is NIB for cocoa. This one is setting up nicely, we may have breakout as early as tomorrow.

  • AMCabrera

    god o mighty.

  • AMCabrera

    closing nzd/usd and just going in heavy this one. aud/jpy will be a disaster for those going long now.

  • AmazingLarry

    Not sure what you mean. I don’t really trade them. I have a certain % of my account in one of my accounts where I’m mega long certain sectors and use those ETF indices as a gauge. So yea, I own little bites of NIB, JO, BAL, etc. 

    Also, shares of those are created upon demand. It still tracks the underlying irrespective of volume.

    Next step is to trade the actual futures themselves but I don’t have the bank nor the experience for that yet. Still a n00b. ;)

  • BobbyLow

    Monday was Good, Tuesday was good.  Then I traded like an idiot during the Wood Chipper Session this morning on ES.  The last long run of the day saved my ass.  Now, if I only would have had the balls to keep my position after 4PM I wouldn’t have left 4+ Points on the Table.  

    All part of yet another learning curve I guess.  :)

  • newbfxtrader

    We are trying to catch the falling yen knife…

  • Skynard

    Holding short, a pullback would be in order. After that, looks like we may start looking for that 1600 target now.

  • Curiousmind3861

    last night we were still stalking 93, now it is 94.1, holy cow for audjpy, is it taking the elevator to heaven?? Gerb are you running out of fib lines for this pair to tag??

  • AMCabrera

    its alright. this will likely be the fastest 400-500 pips one can make if one is shorting now.

  • Curiousmind3861

    you mean audjpy?

  • AMCabrera

    yup, I hope you have not tried shorting this thing too many times with large positions? I have only used quarter lots.

  • Skynard

    Has Mole boarded yet!

  • AMCabrera

    The weekly chart is just dumb now any smart trader would be taking profit or selling into it now.

  • AMCabrera

    94.30 to 84.30. AUD/JPY has me very excited. In my short time trading I have not seen many straight up weekly charts.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    i’m glad a man of experience is saying that.
    the last 10 days have been nail biting for me.
    flipping long at 90 was one of the hardest things I’ve ever done.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    94!?  excellent, it’s buying exhaustion IMHO, 
    just what I want to see before Monday.
    now my T was conservative, this thing could go on till Wednesday.
    I’m not expecting a hard reversal per se.

  • Joe_Jones

    One would wonder

  • AMCabrera

    I bet it was. very well played. 

  • Skynard

    Something wrong with this picture?

  • newbfxtrader

    Yen story so far. Falling knife. I see however a divergence on daily on /6j. Gonna wait to see if it can crawl back up.

  • Skynard

    This is going to hurt:)

  • newbfxtrader

    I see some divergence on the daily. But all my fingers are bleeding…..will wait….lol

  • Skynard

    IF reading this chart properly, it looks like more juice possibly 1500 level before a short pullback for equity earnings to start (AAPL on the 23). Considering to go long through then. Then a very large corrections will begin.

  • Skynard

    Ya, just flipped /ES long if you can believe it.

  • Th3_Acist

    So whose stepping in front of the AUD/JPY train? ;-)

  • newbfxtrader

    Your turn. I tried a couple of times already got egg in my face….

  • AMCabrera

    The market is very frothy at this point. I have never felt so bearish before.

  • Skynard

    /DX hourly @ 62

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol I felt like that last week ….

  • Curiousmind3861

    I felt like that last month, wait, or last year…

  • Curiousmind3861

    anyone noticed the CHF weakness today against EUR? It is usually pegged between 1.206-1.208, but now it is at 1.2134, I guess ppl are selling CHF to buy EUR???

    CAD is finally catching up on this dollar weakness, a little late to the party..AUDJPY hit 94.5, unbelievable,.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    feelings are deceptive.  double check your technicals. ;-)
    Peter Elaides was on the radio last night (probably the whole West Coast).
    He’s a cycles guy, let’s say he pointed out some Major Major trendlines.

    http://www.whatsonningbo.com/wine_images/7668Starbucks.jpg

  • AMCabrera

     I really havent felt this bearish before and you know me I have been bullish before with no problem. However, at this point in time things are getting a bit levitated, and dungeon master routines are getting gayer than David Copperfield routines.

  • AMCabrera
  • AMCabrera

    you are ok right? I know how that shit feels.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dam.  and where is our Leader?
    (Pari’, sacrebleu)

  • newbfxtrader

    Should be pretty close. Wait for the daily RSI on /6j to climb back over 30 before shorting the yen pairs. Yen is still a falling knife for now.

  • newbfxtrader

    Did you take a shot at 94.50?

  • Joe_Jones

    Yep it’s gonna hurt

  • Curiousmind3861

    Thanks for asking, definitely feeling the pain!! Still want to beat myself up for letting go my 2 lots of AUDJPY long at 80…What was I thinking??

  • Curiousmind3861

    Does that mean bull run for dollar is done, or the other way?

  • newbfxtrader

    Learn and move forward. I dont see a valid reason for selling at 80. Been trying to sell now unsuccessfully but definitely closer to top than ever.

  • newbfxtrader

    Fundamentals for US are much stronger than Europe. This Draghi jawboning rally will fade soon.

  • Curiousmind3861

    got chicken out of long, thought if the market tanks, audjpy will get cheaper, but of course this market never tanks, and even if it does, audjpy will still flies

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Russel pulled back today.  may be nothing or a clue.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p58015589030

  • newbfxtrader
  • Th3_Acist

    Comment of the year? ;-)

  • newbfxtrader

    I get it. Believe me. But you need some sort of system for a sell. RSI, MACD, MA, BB,  COT data whatever. Pick something that works for you. Stick to the rules. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dude, I don’t read that trash, honest.

    ok. ok. I read the part about the Margin…today.
    but I didn’t look at the pictures.
    (blush)

  • Curiousmind3861

    today’s $BPSPX is flat (0 increase), isn’t that something??

  • AmazingLarry

    Means nothing to me. Look at the $OEXA50 and $OEXA200, stocks above the 50 and 200 SMA’s. Still room to run. Lots. In fact, I wouldn’t even think of holding short until the slow stochs on the weekly of the 50 day drop below 80. It’s not even locked in on the daily yet. Nor are they on the $BP. No reason the VIX can’t go to 9. This market is completely fucked and you must love it. hehe….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    nothing definitive.

  • Joe_Jones
  • Skynard

    Looks like /ES held first support.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    still, it looks strangely familiar to a mountain peak around my home.
    Weavers Needlehttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Weaversneedle.jpg/800px-Weaversneedle.jpg

  • Skynard

    Dollar going down the crapper if that 80 level is not held.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Well, I’m all Tee’d out.

    http://s8.postimage.org/f6p97j4k5/paris.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well, looking at UUP yearly.
    21.80 is an important level.
    but there’s still 21.60 ;-)

  • Skynard

    Indeed!

  • Darkthirty

    Looking for 1462.75 c wave ES ….or better!

  • Joe_Jones

    Nice landscape for a horseback ride you got there

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yep.
    just stay out of the jumping cactus.  
    for those unfamiliar with such exotic vegetation, it’s not something you want brush up against.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GCy3-uHmuwM/UMEycTc9YMI/AAAAAAAAAfc/6rPxxeSeORU/s1600/Jumping+Cholla1.JPG

  • itslance

    How do you create your T?  Is it just measured from the previous trend move?

  • bdoone

    Looking at TICK yest. afternoon I noticed we had a +1100 @2:50pm w/ES 1464, then into the close ES grinded higher while TICK made lower highs/lows and SMA’s sloped down from 500 to unchanged at close.  Lack of participation on buy side or maybe it was being sold into for some distribution, but TICK-wise it didnt look strong.

  • Darkthirty

    Can’t find TICK or VWAP on TOS

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    correct.
    find a high on the left, find a low, look for an equal measure move (in time, not price)

    here’s some examples from Aug/Sep 2011
    http://s1.postimage.org/mmy7mabnj/ES_Aug_Sep_2011.png

    -Gerb

  • itslance

    Thanks!

  • Skynard

    At that support line. See where it goes:)

  • bdoone

    Support line on zero? Because the 25hr sma is also support last 6 hours.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    silver/gold/miners – what a joke.  I’ve seen butterflies travel straighter.

  • Darkthirty

    Still long ES?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    an inverse correlation between /ES and AUD/JPY (this AM)
    interesting

  • Skynard

    Long 147.5 front

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    front as in front month options, correct?

  • Darkthirty

    Gotta turn now, or it’s not a 4

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    10:06 now, AUD/JPY falling in sympathy (?) 94.05 currently

  • Skynard

    Yep

  • Skynard

    4 what?

  • Skynard

    Yep

  • Darkthirty

    4th wave

  • Skynard

    NAZ is going to play some catch up now:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    someone kick JJ.
    Zzzzz
    JJ, wake up ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    10:20 now, AUD/JPY breaking 94 clearly on the 2min.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    10:30, AUD/JPY  93.80 touched

    the Mole Curse lives. hehe.
    (ok, it’s only 4.5 SnP pts, but the day is young!)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    10:40, AUD/JPY 94.00
    amateur hour over.  maybe that was the excitement for the day.
    S&P -3.0

  • Skynard

    Ok, stoped counting a while ago when I started using the Mole system:)

  • Darkthirty

    50% retrace..figured an a=c zigzag. What happened to ZZ Gerb?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    what happened to ZigZag you ask?

  • Darkthirty

    Yeah… That’s what I asked

  • BobbyLow

    LOL,

    I stopped counting when “Pee Three” never came.  

  • Skynard

    Ya, where is Zen?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ZigZag (aka ZZ) moved on to another blog.
    teamed up with an astro trading guy.
    they locked it down to subscription forum last month.
    I’d give ya the link, but frankly, I deleted it.
    and googling for ZigZag, well, that’s futility in itself.

  • Joe_Jones

    Same here. LOL!

  • Darkthirty

    cranked ZZtop this AM!

  • Skynard

    Amen for that Brother!

  • Darkthirty

    Do your own count, you can’t follow anyone

  • Joe_Jones

    I have a feeling today will be a boring inside day on SPX.

  • Skynard

    ZL looking more bullish though.

  • Darkthirty

    Scalp fest!

  • BobbyLow

    I agree and I do my own thing but not EW.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    “I’ll have the quesadilla”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmeUuoxyt_E

  • BobbyLow

    Yes it is.

    I was able to draw first blood on a little short scalp in ES earlier.  

    Sitting on my hands at this moment.  

  • AMCabrera

    same here brother I stop going long at 85 and stop going long eur/jpy too. Bobbylow probably remembers those two weeks or so. It happens to everyone. I stopped paying attention, I did not have any longs in the eur/jpy,aud/jpy pairs and it goes parabolic.

  • Curiousmind3861

    I wonder what is the reason for that extreme weakness in CHF, EURCHF touched 1.22 earlier. Is it some kind of risk on move since CHF is viewed as safer currency? 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    proof that AMC doesn’t look at my charts. ;-)
    http://s9.postimage.org/g7920dwku/joker.jpg

    Smile…..or the Market will carve one into you

  • Curiousmind3861

    don’t we all have these shoula coulda woulda moments? Just to think I was looking at EURJPY long this Monday but didn’t pull the trigger send punches to my stomach…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Watching cocoa. Break-out today?
    Soybeans  came back to life 5 minutes ago.
    Will it last?
    JJG is at 61.8 Fib of last years rally.
    Everything is Fibonacci even Mona Lisa

  • AMCabrera

    DG I take you very serious. 

  • Darkthirty

    Catching this one?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it was a tease.

  • AMCabrera

    Its fine. I really do believe in what DG told me a long time ago “he was probably angry” but you really cant give a shit when a trade is executed. Worrying about executing a trade then means the position is too large and/or overleveraged. That has happened to me before many times and lord and behold it becomes a shoulda woulda 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    i’m no expert, but yes, 
    SAFE Haven – especially Euro Safe Haven.
    http://www.econtrader.com/forex/usdchf/

  • AMCabrera

    i just hope you take me serious the 94.30-84.30…oh baby.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    and if the ball really gets rolling?…..74.50

  • BobbyLow

    Oh I remember it well AMC.   

    This is just another case of it can’t go any higher and then it just keeps on rising and rising and rising.   We all know it can’t go on forever but it sure seems like it.  :) 

    Last night was a perfect example of doing what I said I would no longer do (Famous Last Words) and that’s call a Top or a Bottom. After the EUR/JPY made yet another 52 Week High and fell back, I took a flyer and Shorted it with a Stop above the last High and got stopped out within 30 Minutes.  So just before I went to bed, I shorted it again and gave my new stop some room.  I woke up this morning to find I was stopped again.

    These were relatively small losses but what pisses me off more than the actual losses is that I too ignored that significant ramp up and then went against the grain to call a top not once but twice.  This was bad trading on my part.    

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (but you used stops, so I give you Kudos for that)

  • BobbyLow

    I covered my Short at 1463 earlier and right now price is at 1464. I’m not seeing anything compelling enough to go in one direction or another at this very moment.  :)

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/ec16cdc0-15d3-4ff7-8c23-b03c00a52bfc/2013-01-11_1144.png

    alright fellas this will be my I dont give a shit trade. Not touching it unless it goes against me OR if it drops 400 real fast next week.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. 

    Stops in Forex and Futures Trades are a must – At least they are for me.  :)

  • Darkthirty

    Just picking up nickles in front of the steamroller

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    put on a 3.0 delta.
    you’ll find price is on the edge pushing.
    can’t get more extreme on a weekly, eh?

    my bad, on the edge for BB30, BB25 has a little more room.

  • bdoone

    TICK readings for the week: I see NO -1000 TICK readings and only 2 +1000 readings.  I follow the TICK closely and can’t remember anything like that.

  • Skynard

    Is that bullish?

  • Skynard

    /NG rocket today, Wow!

  • bdoone

    Don’t know. Bulls can claim consolidation before move higher. Bears can say running out of buyers.
    But 5 days with no concerted effort to push it either way, even just to shake weak hands, is puzzling. I guess thats why the VIX is 13.50 and stagnant also. 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Corn and Soybean parting ways. I was watching wrong one – that is why i do ETF’s.
    How does a “little yellow fruit” picks a winner ? He doesn’t.
    JJG

  • itslance

    FB finally showing some cracks.  Gravestone doji if this holds.  I jumped in too early and got stopped out on the ramp earlier, and I think I’m done trading for the day.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     FB was out of ALL BBands for 3 days. Gravity has to take hold. I hope it comes down a little so I can add. Something is cooking in there. Remember, this company is a worthless fraud. Right? Or so they said

  • Skynard

    Ok, thanks for your reply. Interesting concept.

  • AMCabrera
  • Darkthirty

    Somethings fixin to flash

  • Skynard

    Are you watching the ZL?

  • http://twitter.com/NobodyTrader Nobody Trader

    Long 3 TZA weekly puts for lottery ticket, 1 hr ago delta was -75 and gamma was like 500. On the road, can’t check but I’m sure that’s changed. But it’s binary and if the bulls say f*&k you to the bears in the next hour or so it could bank some lunch money. Limited risk, that’s all I’m willing to do here. BIG POMO buy today hasn’t mattered so far. But low volume means anything can happen.

  • Darkthirty

    nope, indicators are acting hinkey. What’s your take?

  • Skynard

    Bull right now until proven otherwise Bro. Downside potential next week by Tues me thinks.

  • Darkthirty

    I’m scalpinng 5 pt moves, nervous as a dog passing peach pits right now

  • Skynard

    Tough tape for that today, not much movement.

  • Darkthirty

    zero in, the pts are coming

  • Skynard

    Dollar loosing ground fast!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    all BBands, you crack me up.
    he he.

    http://s2.postimage.org/5jo9qxahz/crack.png

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • Skynard

    % min confirming higher lows, fakout:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Correction: All of mine BBands

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    looking at November, you could tweak the 2.0 to 2.1 or so.
    or just take a mental note, that BB runs can run a little bit outside 2.0.

  • Darkthirty

    Budget deficit @1400 hrs, catalyst?

  • BobbyLow

    This is like fucking water torture.  

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Hmm, I haven’t thought of that. Thanks.
    I am still experimenting with BBands, its not officially part of my system yet. For now I use it to better identify trends, and to make sure that I don’t buy a blow-off top.
     Also I noticed that when price is outside of 50,1 band – it will stay there for weeks, often having a parabolic move with that outer band as support

  • Skynard

    Bulls need to make a move here, otherwise the bears will start piling on…….or maybe that’s what they want:)

  • http://twitter.com/NobodyTrader Nobody Trader

    Yes, it is. 5 more TZA weekly $12 puts, -190 (bullish) delta, 600 gamma on that, different broker, don’t know my total greeks. What the hell. Cost me $10 on the 5

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Long Bond thinks that bears already “on”.
    Volume is kinda wimpy. Friday

  • Joe_Jones

    We could see a blow-off top move Monday or Tuesday on SPX if 1474 is breached to the upside. Have you seen Tom Demark’s target of 1492 on Bloomberg? Makes a lot of sense to me. 
    http://bloom.bg/UZszvk

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure. 

    I’m long at the moment so a push above VWAP that sticks for a little while would be nice.  :)

  • Skynard

    What deficit?

  • Skynard

    placing a stop below VWAP before 1400 hrs.

  • Darkthirty

    Exactly! No budget…no deficit!

  • Skynard

    :-)

  • bdoone

    I saw that.  “Daily 13″ sell signal on yest. close on Germ, Eng. & France. US on day 12. A close above Sept high and a ‘blow-off top’ to 1492 would make it official.

  • bdoone

    Yeah, so bored I stopped at ZH, for a few laughs.

  • Ronebadger

    how about the Russell, THAT closed above Sept high…but I dont know how to count demarks

  • bdoone

    Me neither but I like the ‘blow-off top’ scenario

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    IWM 60 day, 60 min.
    (what if all of January ..so far .. turns out to be a flying turd..)

  • Skynard

    What a dud! Well, VWAP test.

  • BobbyLow

    This is one tough tape.  It is turning my brain numb.  :)

  • Skynard

    FN Yen down 1% and no action makes me wonder some.

  • StrikeFirst

    SPX 1 hr:

  • Joe_Jones

    Call it a day then and wait for a clearer entry/exit, perhaps next week. This tape stinks of a trap now. I am keeping some dry powder until I see some exhaustion move.

  • Skynard

    That looks like a continuation pattern.

  • http://twitter.com/h1todama Hitodama
  • BobbyLow

    It sure does stink.  

    I pulled my stop and have had my finger on the sell button for the last hour.   I’m pretty much flat on the day and all I would like is a couple of measly points to pay for all the Coffee I drank today.   LOL

    Whoa, wait a minute maybe we get a move right now! 

  • Skynard

    Looks like a new high possibly:) 1 messily point!

  • BobbyLow

    That’s 3 Bounces off the Upper 2.0.  This trade is on a very tiny leash right now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehe – doesn’t look like I missed much :-)

  • BobbyLow

    Did I ES just flash Green for a Nano Second?  

     

  • BobbyLow

    Only a little Torture.   :)

  • bdoone

    And an actual +1100 TICK

  • BobbyLow

    Out +2

    That was almost as tough as manual labor.  :)

    Unreal.

  • BobbyLow

    Damn,

    I had a premature Ejac. again. :)

    One of these days, I’ll hold until 4:15.  

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Just made over 1mil contracts on ES. Volume is very low. Very

  • BobbyLow

    Yep.  The market was ‘Dead Man Walking” today.   I’ve got to go outside and get some fresh air and my eyes are buggy.  

    Y’all have a great weekend.  :)

  • AmazingLarry

    P&F on the FXY (Yen) is now showing a bearish PO of 104 when I select “reversal” and 92 for “breakout.” 

    EWJ (Japanese equities) has pulled back but is still winding on the monthly. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Coming up on 300 Comments, I hope Captain gives us a comment cleaner.

    Valueline is an index without the Fluff.
    Here’s a thought on the latest ups and downs.
    A purple heart for any of those lurkers wounded on NewYears day.

    http://s7.postimage.org/7jgw4wpx7/valueline.png-Gerb

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m traveling and told you in the post that I won’t post before Monday.

  • RacerXX
  • captainboom

    The book “DeMark Indicators” by Jason Perl is pretty good.  More concise than DeMark’s original work, and easier to read.  It’s written using references to a Bloomberg terminal, but still worth reading to understand DeMark’s work if you don’t have one (like me).

  • captainboom

    I’m almost done reading “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands” by John Bollinger.  It’s a good read, well footnoted and has examples.  Recommended.

  • Ronebadger

    just looked for it in my search of 2 county’s libraries…no record of book of author

  • captainboom

    Figures… I like to get books from the library first, and then buy them if worthwhile.  You might be able to find a used copy at a reasonable price from http://www.abebooks.com or http://www.alibris.com

  • Joe_Jones
  • convictscott

    both books are very worth reading but almost pure geekinese. difficult going for sure, but I agree Perl’s is the better

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Florida.  
    A Bull Chased a Florida Trooper Around His Car
    Eventually, the bull ran off the interstate and deputies put it down with several gunshots.

  • newbfxtrader

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p73233598709

    its going to need a bazooka to stop this bull…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸




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