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February 2, 2016

Too Many Damn Setups

I’m having way too much fun this morning, which accounts for my somewhat belated post. There literally seem to be juicy setups crawling out of the woodwork and I just kept adding new ones while reducing exposure on others in order to reduce correlation risk. So without further ado let’s jump right in:

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February 1, 2016

Crossing The Chasm

Equities are soon facing a veritable chasm on our volume profile chart, one which spans roughly between ES 1940 and 1980 – 40 handles of non-participation where pretty much anything can happen. At the current velocity I have some doubts as to whether we’ll even make it half way through there but I don’t want to be too hasty with making an assessment as we’re slowly dropping out of a high volatility range and may be seeing more trending tape later this week.

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December 1, 2015

Recency Bias

Over the past two months we have been navigating some pretty volatile tape which in the process offered us several swing trading opportunities. As a result I have been pretty pleased with myself after serving up consecutive profitable entries near medium term inflection points. However upon a bit of meditation earlier today I realized that my own ego may be getting the better of me. For one it is very tempting to engage in calling turning points after successfully having done so in the recent past. That little psychological trap probably lies somewhere in the realms of illusion of control bias which is to believe that one can foresee or even influence future outcomes that one has no [...]

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November 30, 2015

Welcome Back!

I hope you enjoyed a few days off – I certainly did and although I would love to boast that I spent my time productively I mostly wound up catching up with a few shows and training with my guys. Even Mole the machine needs to recharge his batteries every once in a while. However there’s only so much idle time I can tolerate and I intend to hit the ground running here as we are now heading into one of the most exciting periods of the year. So snap out of your tryptophan induced slumbers and let’s get to work!

On the equities side we are holding strong and you should move your stop below the 25-day SMA around 2077. We are now facing medium term overhead [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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