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January 12, 2017

Class In Session

I’m going to cover two important topics today which both relate to realized volatility (RV) and in particular how to trade your way around it. If you’ve been a trader for a while then you probably have noticed that volatility profiles differ substantially on the short term when compared with the long term. In essence volatility has a tendency to decrease toward the long term. Nevertheless many traders treat those charts the same when designing their systems, e.g. how and where they enter, where they place their stop loss, and how they handle campaign management. 

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January 3, 2017

Off To The Races

And we are officially ticking in 2017! I trust you enjoyed a memorable holiday season and are now ready to slowly abandon each and every New Year’s resolution you committed yourself to just last week. Personally I’m pretty proud of myself as I survived yet another Christmas without adding a single pound. Plus I spent much of the past 10 days collaborating with Scott and a few others on an improved version of Scalpius. I’ll be sharing more on that that as we’re forward trading the system over the coming two months.

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December 21, 2016

Happy Winter Solstice

Here comes the cold and the dark. If you are like me and hate winter with a vengeance then you may be pretty depressed today. But let’s not forget that there’s an upside. Today being the shortest day of the year also means that it only gets better from here, as every new sunrise brings us a few more minutes of daylight. The contrast in daylight hours is actually a lot more pronounced over here in Europe, even in the South of Spain. Back when I was living in Germany I recall the sun setting at half past four and not appearing again until after eight. Of course it’s even worse further up North.

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December 15, 2016

The Yellen Crush

It seems like along with a new POTUS (which one exactly still remains to be seen) we also seem to be getting an entirely new FOMC monetary policy, as Yellen appears to suddenly have discovered new faith in God and higher interest rates. The increase in the federal funds rate to a range between 0.5% and 0.75% was expected but came along with the prospect of brisker monetary tightening. And not surprisingly all hell broke loose… well, at least over in forex and precious metals:

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Anchoring And The BandwagonAnchoring And The Bandwagon
    I’ve been tangentially following the news at a safe distance over the past week and frankly felt tempted to pinch myself every once in a while, just … more
Class In Session
Welcome To 2017
Blast From The Past: Statistical Musings
Ten Trading Rules For Avoiding Extinction
The Emotional Purgatory Of Cognitive Biases – Part 1
Practice Makes Perfect