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Equities Laying Low
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Equities Laying Low

by The MoleJanuary 17, 2017

One aspect I hate about winter, beside the dismal weather of course, is that we seem to hopping from one long holiday into the next. With the obvious result that pretty much nothing gets done. The situation is even worse over here in Spain where we’ve had on average at least one regional holiday scheduled every week. I kid you not. And that list doesn’t even account for Las Fallas which starts on March 1st and gradually turns Valencia into the Mediterranean equivalent of Sodom and Gomorrah by the time it ends on March 19th. I often wonder when those Spaniards actually do work as statistics claim that they work more hours per year on average as the Germans and of course the French. With all that time devoted to holidays, how can they find the time?

At least over in the U.S. you guys enjoy clear skies until Washington’s birthday on February 20th. However Trump gets sworn in on January 20th and given that I don’t expect much in terms of directional movement on the equities side until at least a day or two after – depending how much fireworks (ahem) we’ll actually be seeing.

2017-01-17_spoos_setup

Now you know that I’m not a slacker but must concede that this constant off and on really doesn’t help me get into the flow of things. It’s extremely difficult to maintain a trading campaign if participation keeps disappearing two days ahead of a three or four day weekend. And apparently I’m not alone as mid January is usually the period when we see some of the exuberance of the recent Santa rally is being corrected courtesy of low participation tape. Except that this year we’ve been getting more of those sideways gyration we’ve all loved to hate throughout most of 2016.

Anyway, based on the recent sequence of spike lows I’m somewhat tempted to grab a long position here, however it would have to be a near perfect entry in the vicinity of the 100-hour SMA. The context on the daily panel is supportive but is getting dangerously close to running out of mojo, which could be easily exploited by an organized stop run. On the positive side however we are building a strong base here which may aid us in the future.

2017-01-17_YM_setup

The YM actually shows us slightly better context and splitting your exposure between that one and the ES may not be a bad idea. For one I like that diagonal on the hourly as well as the touch of the lower 25-day Bollinger.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Yes indeed. Closed my L bonds from Friday.

  • Yoda

    for the moment neither TRIN or zero are supportive of further down tape

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Interesting you would pull up NVDA. I started looking at graphics card manufacturers after your recent post on virtual reality.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    They’re clearly on top of that game.

  • ridingwaves

    storage-bandwidth also important in that space…

    Financials seem to be brunt of red this AM…and ole bucky…

  • StockTalker

    /ES 2260 tough nut

  • StockTalker

    Fake out in crude:)

  • OJuice

    A bit surprising that there wasn’t at least a slightly negative zero reading on the open.

  • BobbyLow

    That was good to see. FBOW, I added back to a full short this AM.

  • StockTalker

    Short from last week, here we go. Drop below 52 should be a fun ride to 50 (neckline)

  • Yoda

    not really surprising if tape stays within an acceptable whipsaw range and above a high concentration of stops.

  • Tomcat

    Smart move. I covered half of my short.

  • StockTalker

    See what the bears bring today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    watch High Yield. 8 days nowhere.
    isn’t 8 a famous number for Tom Demark? or was it 9?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p43889694022

  • ridingwaves

    CL seasonality swings bullish for next 2 weeks….Feb. different story..

  • Tomcat

    Understood. I believe someone (maybe you) posted a chart about the seasonality of energy. Reason why I covered half, was to bring exposure to an acceptable level, meaning I had a bit more than I was comfortable. I still think, front contract will touch 50 before it breaks through 55 and higher.

  • BobbyLow

    Tom Demark’s System. Now here is a prime example of the antithesis of KISS. :)

  • Tomcat

    Interesting trend-day alert…

  • StockTalker

    SIGNAL IS BROKE

  • Yoda

    yup just when things are getting interesting :(

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry – I’m on it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Long story – I had to share the signal from my local system today because the VM had blown up over the long weekend. While I was gone they fixed it and the two logins clashed somehow. Not something I was able to anticipate – sorry.

  • StockTalker

    OK, it’s working now. Thank you, Wheeew just in time:)

  • StockTalker

    Down she goes with a gapper

  • StockTalker

    Heavy hitter playing

  • Tomcat

    Great, opportunity to re-load :-) or dumb the b***

  • StockTalker

    Looks like she will collapes here, bears showing some muscle.

  • Tomcat

    Do bears have any muscle left though???

  • StockTalker

    Don’t kid yourself, if the powers be want a selloff

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    always have a backup
    😉

  • StockTalker

    No problem bro

  • Yoda

    Thanks for fixing it

  • Tomcat

    You are right, this will be a BTFD until it isn’t.

  • StockTalker

    Exactly

  • StockTalker

    Hourly trendline, see if it holds

  • Billabong

    Reversal Tuesday? Make that Wednesday….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just one directional session – is it too much to ask? If this year turns into 2016 I’m committing ritual seppuku.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b195e0f87c8f056670c9a6ac1aaa81c07ced1841f9cd5dc2104bcf7adc87f663.png

  • Billabong

    CL is currently looking at a Doji on the daily with an hour to go. This would be a clear sign that buyers and sellers are in balance. This could be the start of a possible trend change after an advancement. I will be looking for downside follow-through over the next couple of days. Still looks like CL is in a $47-55 trading range UFN.

  • Billabong

    How about a directional sector session … GC / SI?

  • Billabong

    Retail sector had a nice DCB this morning followed by a sharp reversal … I guess those 1K jobs from WMT were discounted as retailers reversed back towards their opening prices on the daily.

  • OJuice

    Seems like bearish commentary from the group on oil. From my lens we have been consolidating since December 1st and the daily trend is up. Combined with the seasonality that ridingwaves mentioned and an hourly downtrend in the USD it seems dangerous to be trying to short oil here. For disclosure I am long CL with the 51.75 – 52.00 range as a stop.

  • BobbyLow

    It depends on the time frame and the criteria being used. Looking at my daily chart, I can see how you might be correct. However, I remain short and still need a close above 53.50 to flip. This does not mean that either one of us is right or wrong. :)
    As Scott used to say, “two traders can be on the opposite sides on any given trade and both be correct”.

    Although Seasonality is a factor it is never a guarrantee. And whatever a consensus of opinion says is never a guarantee either. The only thing we can do as individuals is to follow our own system. And as Ivan used to say “any given trade is only one trade of the next thousand trades”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    USD move under 100 and 98.5 is in play, 96 absolute bottom. CL could get some help from lower dollar and China demand. Were at Channel top so shorting CL makes sense for move to $WTIC 49.70 with tight stop just in case it broke out higher out of that channel, If so it will be painful for shorts. $59 WTIC $63 Brent is target if breakout here…CL has great support underneath it now…red box of avgs is now support vs descending overhead resistance..70 Brent crude in spring/summer seems plausible….

    https://s23.postimg.org/g1r385r17/brent_USD_11717.png

  • ridingwaves

    that was funny…

  • StockTalker

    Long now /CLH 52.34

  • StockTalker

    Short -2 /NQ avg 5049.25

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why here and now?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Reminder that CL rolled over – we’re in March now.

  • StockTalker

    Think we are at a double top, been wanting to short at 5k mark. Think it is a good time for it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Possible – I just don’t know if we get any movement before the inauguration.

  • StockTalker

    You are probably right, don’t want to be late for dinner:)

  • ridingwaves

    looks like the pit boys took advantage of it..
    Short trades are winning below!

  • ridingwaves

    or maybe not :)

  • StockTalker

    Oooooppppssss

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That was interesting!