For Fuck’s Sake!
This tape is starting to wear me out a little and I’m ready to take a breather during the holidays. Which of course is a great sign that all the nasty whipsaw is soon going to resolve into a major move to one side or the other. Psychology is everything when it comes to trading the tape on a daily basis – it wears on you even if you don’t want to admit to it. My personal remedy is my daily gym + MA routine which, after getting punched in the face a few times, does wonders in triggering that mental reset (a.k.a. stress and frustration release). May I add that my dentist has me on his Christmas inner circle list? Anyway, your mileage may vary – so find yourself that one mental refuge that helps you wash away the stress and gets you back running on all six cylinders.
I’m not even going to bother talking about the spasmodic gyrations we had to endure today. What I really care about is that inside candle that seems to be on the menu for today. Of course, the day ain’t over yet – so if we breach through that 25-day SMA then my MMMRs were spot on yesterday and the longs are in for some pre-X-Mas pain.
I looked around my chart universe and pretty much everything is running in circles – very little edge. No to completely disappoint I did manage to dig up two possible FX setups however – so please join me in the evil lair:
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Cable is dropping through its daily NLSL – my target is at 1.538. Unfortunately things have accelerated a bit since I took this snapshot about 20 minutes ago, so I would wait for a retest of that NLSL. You don’t want to chase anything in tape like this. Well, do we ever? 😉
Then there’s the USD/JPY – which is still playing with its NLBL at 77.85 – my target area is not too far away at about 78 and change. Admittedly not the biggest money trade I’ve posted but heck – I only report the tape, I don’t make it (yet)…
What all this ties into however is a break out on the Dollar side. Which equities may be able to fade for a while (i.e. during the X-Mas holidays) but if ole’ bucky pushes over the 80 mark (perhaps EOY) then expect some ugliness in January. Is it me or is an inverse H&S from hell in the works here?
Anyway, in the interim I expect a bit of push back if/once bucky gets close – so structure your short term FX trades accordingly. Don’t get greedy and take profits if your targets are being touched.