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Forex Freebie

by The MoleDecember 15, 2011

Since it’s almost Christmas I’m experiencing a rare moment of good will and thus decided to throw this one out for free:

I am not feeling too hot about this just yet as most other FX pairs I watch are still on the move right now. However, that said – the EUR/JPY is pushing toward the 100 mark which is of course psychologically important. Then we have that lower 100-day BB line waiting right there – plus there is the 100-day lower BB line pretty much overlapping. I think the odds favor the longs here and if you can get it near 100 then you got good upside potential with limited downside risk as your stop should be placed right below.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole

Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jeezzz – where is everyone?

  • Joe_Jones

    puking. Thanks for the new post. Couldn’t bear looking at the barfing guy anymore.

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    got some web page access issue.
    flitted off to other distractions.

  • Anonymous

    Well, the tape is kind of boring right now. Gyrations without end but no clear direction for weeks or even months by now. I find this to be an interesting effect. Sentiment like this with people seemingly losing interest in the market has preceded the last major drops. So when I find myself becoming bored and disinterested it serves as a warning signal that something might happen in the near term.
    Or maybe its just the holiday season and people have left the tape behind to start their vacation early.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh, NIB right around 29.33
    50MA hourly.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That was my very point the other day. BTW, the same happens before ramps.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Interesting setup but rather wait for a short setup, don`t like counter trend positions but, i must confess we could get a nice squeeze after a false break of 100.

    AUD placed another 4H pinbar, inside the last pinbar, so we got a double setup.  Still short @ 9945 SL 9995

  • Anonymous

    I love the woman and the dog part haha!!

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/888f7766-bb65-4a54-8316-0bbc64286534/2011-12-15_1517.png
    Nothing unusual. Obviously middle line is important needs to get above to stop bull killing.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna Mall
  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Don’t feel alone Mole, as they aren’t on my site either.  It’s the holiday’s, so everyone is taking time off I’m sure.

  • labdude

    Still lurking–giving thumbs up on comments here and there.

    Gotta go–have a lab sample waiting–some fleas to scratch.
    EDIT: oh–for CS sake–since I’m a cat–may have to lick my a$$ and sweaty balls later.

  • Anonymous

    keeping an eye on that line on the /es chart
    looking to place an overnight trade

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Unfortunately they left out the last part which is that they were delivered to the local butcher right after. Sorry Anna!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, its been pretty noisy here until just now…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Usted tambien! I guess ‘harden the fuck up’ doesn’t really translate very well into Spanish…

  • Joe_Jones

    Evil!

  • Fibz

    was just reading an article on “the place of ill repute” and thought if the euro broke up… wouldn’t that be good for US equities since they would then be the most attractive investment?

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    I’m actually taking the whole month off from trading and haven’t done many posts… so the light comments on my site is actually my own fault. But, I have some other important things I wanted to work on, and this Christmas period is the perfect time to do it.

    You and I both know that the market is very slow during this period anyway and not worth trading.  So I decided to take it off this year and work on some other projects.  I’m sure it will pick back up after the first of the year comes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    For some reason I feel like some juicy venison for Christmas…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The rats would tar & feather me if I took more than three days off…

  • Anonymous

    Been tied up on the phone all day. I know, it’s kind of kinky, but Michigan’s fireworks law just changed, and is effective on Jan. 1. I’ve had a lot of calls coming in.

    At least I’m keeping an eye on the Zero. Seems to me we should see some movement, but the tape doesn’t want to cooperate.

  • Anonymous

    got long some ultra spx etf’s for tomorrows opex,
    looking to add some /es longs under 1205.25 tonight

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • Anonymous

    SPY DEC 122 call is trading .50 with .20 premium (13.75% vol). The Dec 122 put is .90 and all premium (44.6% vol).  Thats a hell of a skew. 

  • Anonymous

    molecool = crack ???

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very nice 🙂

  • denali92

    No, it is not…. as the SPY will be lower tomorrow am by the div amount, which is probably around .65.

    -D

  • Anonymous

    Daily and hourly unsmoothed zeros both have nice trend lines.  Get out your pencil, piece of paper, rubber band, whatever.  

  • Anonymous

    HAHA!

  • Anonymous

    YES!! ITs catching on!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Red, it’s the gov’t boyz filtering your site.
    😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh contraire.
    the last time you left, the Market moved BIG.
    and I made a ton of….oh. *nevermind*

  • Anonymous

    Well, the put buyers should hope so.  MM’s may see it differently.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/ec02e2d6-e483-4ba8-9095-2d7840a823f3/2011-12-15_1651.png
    The comfort level I have with this position is very high (Im still long from last night).This is a very telling sign the slide in equities could be over for now.

  • Anonymous

    Had a disqus issue today and could not comment. That was the most FU tape to trade that I have seen in a while.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Shhhhh.
    don’t tell any one.  fight club rules.
    [sell your worthless yellow rocks, and buy SnPeeee, it pays a dividend!]
    😉

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82462070277

    ps. this chart is a zoomed in counter trend.

  • Fibz

    hence my view on SPX rising with a weak euro and EUR/AUD falling through this base.

  • Joe_Jones

    That would be too kind. More like letting you die of thirst in the desert while staring at your favorite lager.

  • TwinTurboRX7

    ds2, you meant the pos div lines right?
    Is today also an inside day with pos div? long above today high, with stop at today low or yest low?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/f2ff256a-25e1-4213-ae01-1273e6007246/2011-12-15_1815.png
    Bru you may be on to something here. Look at the SD. Could be a sucker move coming up if it does fall through floor.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you see a doctor?

  • Anonymous

    LOL, yes I did. Dr. Jack:) Done!

  • Anonymous

    It’s called OPEX. So obvious that is sickening…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Day 5 – negative negative.
    opX tomorrow.  speed bump?

    BPSPX
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p14436128462

  • Anonymous

    It appears it wasn’t Dr. Jack Kevorkian.

  • Anonymous

    Did anyone see a spike in $VIX mid day, but not much drop in equity?  What’s that all about?

  • Anonymous

    Was busy most of the day and plan on replying to your email shortly. Cheers!

  • Anonymous

    Damn! Need to remember as not to attempt that again:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes. you could.
    look for spike low candles, especially outside the bollinger range.
    http://i41.tinypic.com/xnesfd.png

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    after a while, you will start seeing them everywhere.

    http://i42.tinypic.com/34ikd2w.png

  • Anonymous

    bullish harami on SPX?

  • Anonymous

    Is ZFX stuck? Time is updating, but not price.

  • Anonymous

    yep

  • Anonymous

    yep

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I am working on it – thought nobody is watching it anyway (quiet here).

  • Anonymous

    I’m always watching. By the way, is it possible to make a zero for Copper? That would be cool.

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY signal on the 5 min should be over come now by the hourly signal.

  • Anonymous

    CPCE – 0.95

  • Anonymous

    Bots have switched to buy mode. Dont stand in the way! Join them.

  • Anonymous

    Euro just launched or is it funny business?

  • Anonymous

    Opex? I don’t know enough to know if opex affects currencies. Max pain for SPY is at 124.

  • Anonymous

    Just notice that these extreme moves are often followed by rapid reversal.

  • Anonymous

    USD core CPI  8:30

    http://www.forexfactory.com/

  • Anonymous

    saheee baaat..

  • Joe_Jones

    I guess you noticed the stars fireworks on hourly AUDJPY
    😉

  • Anonymous

    Nice set up right now on /DZ 5 min, higher low if the dollar is to rally higher.

  • Anonymous

    Thoughts for the day: Looking for SPX to rally to the 50ma coming in at 1220 on the 15 min or possibly 1225 on the 30 min. Any higher and we are back to the races:)

  • Anonymous

    Nice stair stepping AUD/JPY 5 min

  • Anonymous

    Yes, it was a 5 min buy and an hourly sell. At least that is what is playing out for now:)

  • volar

    NEW POST

  • Anonymous

    Way to many sell signals right now for me to go long unless hedging. Besides the bots are short now:)