Get Out Of Dodge

A friendly reader reminded me to check the ISEE last night – and boy was I in for a surprise. Listen folks – they will play their game during the X-Mas season and make sure that all those December index puts will expire worthless. But be this as it may – it’s time to get out of dodge.

Why? Look at this juicy chart:

Quite frankly folks – it doesn’t get much sweeter than this. As I said in the teaser – they will probably keep equities on crotches until after OPX, but I expect some serious fireworks once the bus is completely empty. A 327 reading is simply ridiculous – especially if it follows on the footsteps of a 113 reading. Also worth noting is that both were way way outside the 2.0 Bollinger.

In case you are a noob and don’t know what the ISEE is point your browser here.

Bottom Line:

We all know December is paint the tape month – so I don’t expect an instant response here. Be this as it may, my point stands. Get out of dodge as soon as possible – equities are a train wreck waiting to happen.

Wait a minute – what did I just board to get out of dodge… crap!

;-)

Mole

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 2nd, 2010 at 4:25 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Fearless

    First!

    Add to that today's reading so far is approaching 300.

  • chronographics

    So now we all know what you look like :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    I guess the train is about to leave the station? ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's right – and I have my crew waiting a few miles down ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    All equities is even higher…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • 99er

    SPX
    Banksters suck blocks.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com

  • ronebadger

    I get the idea of a low ISEE of 113, and a super high 327. And I do see the correlation to last April. But don't they kinda cancel/average each other out? I mean, doesn't the high reading sort of “make up” for the low reading 2 days prior?

  • Fearless

    ISEE Equities only Call/Put ratio didn't quite make it to 300 today. Too bad, because that would have been a record two straight days with readings above 300.

    Expectation for tomorrow:

    Drop towards 1208 and hold on low volume.

    I will buy more IVN (on the Canadian side) tomorrow, as well as SPY calls if the trend-trading conditions are met.

    Surprise:

    Gap and crap and crap more and have a crappy close.

    Bovespa closed approximately 60% off its HOD. I will be watching its trendline.

    Whenever I am not at my desk, the market seems to usually go the direction of my placed bets. I grabbed a few SPY puts just for small drop (to 1210). I am not at my desk tomorrow.

  • telacimr

    Sentimentrader.com just put out a piece showing the behavior of the market one to thirty days after having a 90% up volume day (yesterday) followed by a 75% up volume day (today). It's not pretty for the bears. Out of 22 occurrences, 86% of the time the market was higher three weeks down the road. The average return was close to 4% 30 days hence. Three months later, the results were still bullish, with an average max gain of 8% versus an average max loss of just 1.7%. Market's gaining after hours now as well.

  • raised_by_wolves

    ($SPX)/(GLD)

    http://content.screencast.com/

    After a head fake a few days ago, the ratio is back inside the triangle.

  • raised_by_wolves

    (JJC*27+SLV*50)/(GLD) is retesting the trend line.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • telacimr

    Moreover, this smells like late August when we repeatedly touched 1040 but couldn't break it and then the next thing you know, we catapulted off 1040 and were greater than 1100 in the blink of an eye. We had three straight gap up and run days then. We've had two so far now after not being able to break 1170-ish. If we don't pull back after hours, we'll have the third gap up for tomorrow (of course, jobs report will have some effect in the a.m.).

  • telacimr

    On the other hand, for this Denninger fractal to play out, we need to start heading down now: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-

  • raised_by_wolves

    Psst! Gerbil, where are you?

    (JNK)/(IEF)

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • gsavli

    FWIW, NDX is retesting its high with lower volume, lower RSI and MACD reading, a big time divergence.

    I will call these last 2 NDX days “a 2 day wonder” for that and for moving up despite USD gaining strength and for some other things.

    This market is just fucked up beyond believable. I think it's the hedgies and alike buying these days and I will have a nice laugh if this whole thing just craps itself.

  • Sleepynaptime

    Mole, There is no link in the post where you say:

    “In case you are a noob and don’t know what the ISEE is point your browser here.”

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (GG pops up)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Impossible, only a Spartan could achieve that level.
    ;-)

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/27ZC2SBQHQE6XD4KTTKHVENQNQ Ray

    Mole – you are the man (or rodent). You called it right the last 2 months since i have been a member. Cheers to you. I am watching VIX bollinger like a hawk now. I am laughing at all the permabears now. Thanks much!

  • OldChicago

    A few anomalies for the day – AAPL is up only marginally, CSCO is down. I think Homies and Finnies are pulling SPX up. But, Naz looks tired. Gold is also down, corrected with USD. Perhaps the strength of the day are in short covering in home and financial sectors.

    Two gap-up and go days in a row is impressive. It's hard to believe we'll have another gap-n-go. Perhaps the best thing bulls can do is to rest for a day, and start Monday afresh. As soon as I said that, I am sure we'll have a 3rd gap-up days in the making.

  • Piano_Man

    Hey Mole. May I ask you to look at today's ISEE numbers. I get an email from ISEE; however, the scale of the data sent is different from the scale you are using. The point is that my reading today was even higher, perhaps it is worth a look.

  • volar

    The ISEE is a clean indicator- I use a 7 day average. I am watching copper/$. Mixed signals here. Sentiment is still very robust however

    http://www.market-harmonics.co

  • volar

    use the equity number….

    http://www.ise.com/WebForm/vie

    download and run…. you can look every 20 minutes intraday.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Maybe the 208s can assist us.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Anything else would be inconceivable. ;-)

  • 99er
  • amokta

    Although i am picking more winners (equities and etfs), the smaller positions, and shorter trade duration, means profits per trade seems hardly worth the effort sometimes (unless there is a 'trend' day with a big move)

    is there anyway to increase profit without increasing risk for the same amount of capital per trade?

  • Joe_Jones
  • chronographics

    Mole, I have just one question before I catch my plane. Is that a hat of the american flag you are wearing?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_VSVXKYHCX5MPKIR6C2MRTTL42U Celtic33

    How does one read the ISEE? What does the ISEE at 296 tell us? Also, what is the range of the ISEE as it responds to short ter market bottoms and tops

  • bluprint

    Its a flag hanging in the background of the photo.

  • chronographics

    :-) I know mate, I was only joking :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Do you trade options? Try puts on 3x ETFs.

  • rg64

    that is high and overbought

  • convictscott

    Sentiment readings are different from oscillators. Sentiment means nothing at all until it reaches a ridiculous extreme. The logic behind it is that when the herd is all pointing in one direction, the last buyer has bought, and thus the rally is close to an end, since there is nobody else remaining to keep adding buying pressure fuelling the rally.

    Dont use sentiment like regular indicators, only pay attention to extreme readings. Otherwise its totally worthless

  • convictscott

    Yes, by taking higher probability setups on a short timeframe with tighter stops. Statistically, the highest probability setups intraday are retracements during a trending phase, and these are also easy emotionally to trade.

    I suggest you google “holy grail trade linda raschke” which is a very easy black and white method from Linda, one of my old mentors. Its probably a good place to start for you and so easy you will find it hard to fuck up.

    Right now you are using the language that indicates you are still focused on results “picking winners” etc…. just focus on trading well and the rest will flow.

    For example I'm up $30K for the first 3 days of December, but objectively I've made 4K worth of mistakes already. Good trading is about eliminating mistakes, following rules, and not about picking winners.

    You arent at the racetrack :)

  • convictscott

    Fed day, so there is a zero on the wheel ;-)

  • chronographics

    CS, so you did a bit of work with LBR, nice. Saw her at a show in Vegas(not that sort of show) well it was a TA conference run by Tim Slater back in those days. She is very impressive and has loads of good stuff to offer :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Tonight, I summed open interest for silver futures by option expiration period.

    -3 -2 -1 Current

    /SIF1 000,256 000,403 000,638 000,983

    /SIH1 015,802 018,912 045,399 080,995

    /SIK1 008,245 009,701 012,075 013,313

    /SIN1 006,001 007,326 008,810 008,896

    /SIU1 003,071 004,393 006,116 006,220

    /SIZ1 004,458 004,766 010,699 009,432

    /SIN2 001,030 001,207 001,124 001,328

    /SIZ2 001,399 001,573 002,951 003,390

    /SIN3 000,946 001,105 001,429 001,429

    /SIZ3 001,154 001,203 003,466 003,896

    /SIZ4 000,274 000,312 000,536 000,000

    Totals

    042,636 050,091 093,243 129,882

    I'm going to bed early. See you all tomorrow.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I added the link – sorry guy – had technical trouble all day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    In case you guys really want to know: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G

  • raised_by_wolves

    093,243 < 129,882

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, equities only.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    There are a few signals that seem to work (almost) without fail – so, why not use them?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fixed now – I was mired in technical problems today – you have no idea…

  • 99er
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure about that as there is no precedence of this. So, maybe you're right – we shall see…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Quite a ramp, yeah… and the buck may be done for a little bit.

  • chronographics

    Well to be honest – I don't :-( not my cup of tea.
    Cheers

  • convictscott

    So what you are saying, per the concept we discussed, is that current total OI across silver is less than it was some time ago.

    If so, this is bearish for silver, indicating that long term silver bulls are selling INTO the strength, and not rolling over their long positions.

    Another way to describe this would be *distribution*, from the strong hands to the weak hands, which is a necessary precursor to the weak hands getting scared and selling in panic fashion.

    So this is what you are talking about right?

  • raised_by_wolves

    No, total OI is more than it was when using the closing OI of past options expiration candles and the current OI of this one. It's gone from 42,636 three option expirations ago . . . to 50,091 two optionXs ago . . . to 93,243 last time . . . to 129,882 this time. I can do it again tomorrow using monthly candles to see if it shows the same story or a different one.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm thinking I should run a spreadsheet and update it frequently.

  • convictscott

    So its still increasing, which is bullish. The decrease in OI should happen in the final week of the climax run.

  • convictscott

    I think the best thing would be today vs 1 week ago.

  • convictscott

    OK I have a better way :-)
    Approximating it by taking the 3 front months with any liquidity, ie si z0 (just finished) si h1, and si k1

    I'm looking at total open interest at the recent high, comparing it with today.

    If the uptrend is intact, the OI should be rising, as you pointed out, it has risen continuously for ages.

    http://www.masterkillers.com/w

    si z0 80169 1809
    si h1 35172 80995
    si k1 11588 13313
    si n1 8935 8896
    total 135864 105013

    So total OI, the number of contracts open, has fallen 30 000 contracts in 20 days.

    To me this is a strong sign that even if silver makes new highs, its not a big strong uptrend anymore.

    Nice work RBW :-)

  • convictscott

    I hung in her chat room for a while watching her trade live on 1, 3, and 5 min charts. She is a true master, and anyone could learn from watching her :)

  • raised_by_wolves

    If we're looking for a decrease of OI in the final week of the climax run, then what I just posted is way too course grained to be useful.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Excellent! That's really useful information.

  • raised_by_wolves

    TOS is being a real bitch now: “Waiting for data.”

    http://content.screencast.com/

    I'll try again tomorrow. Right now, I need to go to bed. I think I said that a couple hours ago. :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Essentially, a new high on less open interest would be a divergence.

  • raised_by_wolves

    These trend lines on my custom indicator have been worked well for spotting tops and bottoms on copper or silver or both. Of course, I don't expect these trend lines to work forever. Also, there is the added step of having to decide which to trade, copper or silver. Hmm, Copper has recently been the weaker of the two.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Now that I got that thought out there, maybe I can sleep more easily.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Damn, the spreads are just too wide on JJC options. Same with /HG options.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Is it just me or does this look like it's painting a bottom?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

  • convictscott

    IMO copper is not a related market given that its not a precious metal. I would widen the search to include palladium and platinum. Palladium is very strong so discount it, platinum looks to be worth a look. Gold is weaker than silver so is the obvious vehicle of choice.

  • convictscott

    GLD options?

  • convictscott

    What is real confirmation is if we do the numbers on today vs yesterday and we get the same thing happening.. Ill do it at market close

  • amokta

    Great advice as always from CS & RBW

    Yes, its about a change in mindset – i.e. this is not 'gambling'

    i seem to be doing better now that i am no longer hanging on ewi/prechter updates, not trying to get the 'big win', not trying to predict the market beyond the set-up in hand, not hanging onto a winning trade hoping for 'more'

    Also, someone said the market will be there tomorrow, and will still go up and down, so no need to try 'jump on a bandwagon' after its already started rolling (i.e. no chasing, for chasings sake)

    -still need to work on a formal rule set

  • convictscott

    Essesntially the same thing, but not exactly. There are 2 factors at play here.

    Futures markets are made up of little guys like you and me, giant speculating hedge funds, and guys with actual production.

    Its a known fact from COT data that producers (hedgers) are on the wrong side of the trade right up until the turning point, where they are right.

    Lets say you have the RBW silver mine, and you hedge your production so you have a guaranteed income stream to match your guaranteed expenses, so you can report within expectations to the analysts that cover your company. You have many short contracts of silver which you roll over on a consistent basis, so a fall in the price of silver gives you profit which is offset by the loss you take on the physical silver you pull out of the ground.

    When silver miners change their hedging tactic and simply fail to roll over their short contracts something is changing in the market.

    The second factor is that there are giant funds in silver. Silver is a tiny shitpot, flea sized market. You cant move a billion dollars worth of silver without fucking yourself. Remember that Buffet was able to buy 1/3 of the world physical silver some time ago, and dribble it out after changing the supply/demand of the metal. If you have size you CANNOT do what you and I would do when riding a long position for years, ie trail a loose stop and get out when the trendline is broken. If you tried to do that on massive size you would kill the market into freefall. So big positions in small markets HAVE to sell into strength, like it talks about in reminiscences a lot.

    When a fund buys silver for 18000 and its 28000 they can ride out a correction without being worried. When that fund settles up at the end of the month, banking profit, handing over the position to a new player, and NOT ROLLING OVER THE CONTRACT, the OI goes down.

    What this tells us is that the remaining OI is no longer buffered by these strong hands who arent sellers on every little wiggle.

    Face it, if you bought Silver yesterday at 28000 you would be a little nervous if it went to 27500, but if you bought it years ago then you could care less.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Junk ratios – surprised didn't notice this before – bit of a small divergence versus april, non?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

  • 99er

    Copper
    Not looking too bullish here.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/copper_03.html

  • gsavli

    interesting, so far only few important names traded in the premarket, very unusual. everybody waiting for numbers, probably.

  • volar

    I compare the bull spread to confirm a high. I the bull spread does not confirm the high + the OI it is false

  • volar

    Well said and glad I joined this website-

    looking at the COT data- I think Copper has the most risk of the metals- very crowded.

    BUT to confirm COT watch the bull spread and the roll :D

  • convictscott

    “-still need to work on a formal rule set” You really should *stop* trading and develop your rule set :-) Doing a little better by not believing EWI is a start, you are making progress, but you are entirely capable of making the quantum leap from bleeding less money out of your account to real pro accumulating cash – in a few months. Bobbylow just did it, dudeplunger just presented me with an amazing, original, and well documented trade plan for trading 5 min charts on natural gas of all things! Why can't you do it? All you need to do is sit down with some charts and a notebook for a weekend, come up with some ideas, throw out the bad ones, start refining.

    You, and anyone else, are entirely capable of trading like a professional. Professionals have a written down plan which they follow *every day*, they have rules for entering and exiting trades they spent time developing and backtesting (sometimes the simplest rules, but still rules), they keep proper records (not just printouts their broker sends them) and use them to constantly improve.

    If you dont do every single one of those things, every day, you are an amateur. When you trade you are in the toughest gladiator pit in the universe. Would you bet on the professional or the amateur? Why on earth would you want to be the amateur, when emulating the professional was simply a matter of attitude and things you already know how to do.

    Honestly, its not that hard to copy the good trading habits of others and make them your own.

  • convictscott

    I dont currently have the COT for copper, can you post a chart?

  • convictscott

    cool chart :)

  • 99er
  • 99er
  • 99er
  • Hungry_Joe

    I have read here and in almost all the books that one just needs to have a plan. It is a pre condition. So am hoping to work towards it and not trading at all till I have it. Don't know if I will have it as I am confused as hell with all the possible ideas. But, will not trade if I don't have a plan.

  • amokta

    Likewise (though might try a few trades!)

  • volar

    what is ur email- i dont know how to post an excel chart… that being said you can kin doff get the hint here

    http://finviz.com/futures_char

    The net spec has started to roll and I never fight that trend.

  • amokta

    What ist going onen?

    /es falls, dxy up, silver down – there is no congruency to the market

  • bluprint

    eur/usd jumped also.

  • EvilTrader

    big fight between free money chasing assets and economic data pushing risk aversion and driving assets lower.

    dont care who wins as long as i make money in the process. :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    I guess reality bites . . . quite the reversal this morning. And I thought nobody cared about jobs.

  • Fearless

    It seems no one reads my comments after market close. Ha ha!

  • Clint

    So far …judging by the futures…they still don't care very much. The SPX cash is only down 5 points. In the good old days…..they would have been down 30 points on that report.

  • EvilTrader

    spy around 121.8 could be a dip buying price, lets watch bull's strenght this time.

  • Clint

    Too bad the unemployment number isn't “officially” at 15%. Then we really could get back to new highs over 14,000 on the DJIA and 1500 on the SPX….sooner than later.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    i know…. especially with all this COLLUSION going on ….

  • BobbyLow

    So here is yet another take on why “News Doesn't Matter”.

    On Wednesday we had all the Positive Hoopla on an “Improving Job Market”. And now just 2 days later we have:

    “Employers added only 39,000 jobs last month, a sharp decline from the 172,000 created in October, the Labor Department reported Friday. The weakness was widespread. Retailers, factories, construction companies, financial firms and the government all cut jobs last month.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/…=

    So IMO, what this means is that assuming current news to be the truth can be very damaging to ones trading account. The current “news” are statements issued by various institutions that most of the time don't mean shit in the long run. Yet as traders we are forced to constantly deal with them. However, it is in what context that these statements are dealt with and how we deal with them that's important.

    So in reality, this morning's statement on Employment is probably not going to amount to shit either.

    Having said all of that, I'm currently spread out and Long SPY, QQQQ, and Short TBT, and GLL.

    Of course the positions above could change at a moments notice. And it goes without saying that the market leading up to today hasn't represented anything regarding the current state of our economy. So what's one more employment report got to do with it really?

    So maybe we tank today or maybe we don't. But I'm just trying to put blinders on to “news” and also trying to recognize that the only real truth in this market is price and then only for the most current moment in time.

  • Clint

    Well…Collusion is the name of the game. China doesn't want our market to correct anymore than Bernanke and Obama do. India too.-They have a lot of their future tied up in “high” U.S. stock prices and high prices on commodity “assets”. We'd probably be amazed at what steps have been taken in their 'situation rooms'… by these 'entities' to ward off any more corrections and flash crashes. Unfairly rigged to be sure…but actually…the stock buying public will actually support that kind of government intervention. Almost like FDIC insurance on your bank accounts….but on stocks now too.-I can see that point too.Fair(?)…NO! But free market enterprise (?)…forget about it…gone.

  • OldChicago

    Tug-a-war going on. Dip-buyers are shopping… This could be some wave 4 up.

  • BobbyLow

    VIX @ 18.18

    What me worry?

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_f3fT

  • Schwerepunkt

    I just read your comment after market close. nice

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • amokta

    I believe we could breach 1225 today

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah…but the view
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_RvpV

  • amokta

    That metal Bull gets everywhere – ive not seen this view in photo though!

  • Clint

    $TRAN (trannies) “UP”…at high of the day….well over 5000….and very close to an “all time” high.-The potential implications of that happening here and now boggle the mind.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he get's around.
    apparently you have to spread the BS around to “make things grow”.
    ;-)

  • 99er
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm watching the 60 day 2 hour chart on SLV. Look at this beautiful exponent.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you finish the OMO chart?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Nope, not yet, I distracted myself.

  • ronebadger

    What a day!?! Less than 5 point S&P spread, relatively flat zeroes, lighter volume. What do we make of that?

  • Eva S

    It's a pullback on light volume. The previous 2 days were up and larger volume. (bullish)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Unless there is an obvious solution that I'm not seeing, it looks like I'm going to have to do a lot of copy/paste-ing since the Fed format the data nicely; the par accepted values aren't organized into their own column or row.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    Would you use the operation date or the settlement date?

  • amokta

    oxps keeps rising but in 'step' pattern?

  • amokta

    what about the non-paying farm roll numbers?
    -surely bearish??

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm starting to work on my copy-paste-ing project. Question: Do you think it would be okay to combine two POMOs on the same day into one?

  • Eva S

    OXPS – I'm planning to get this one just before ex-div. Hopefully it pulls back soon.

  • Eva S

    I just trade on technicals not on news. Technicals look ok.

  • amokta

    good idea – of course it will pull back after divi, so what is the benefit if the div+ post-divi pps is the same value as pre-divi pps?

  • amokta

    Yes, just being ironical !!

  • Eva S

    I haven't played too much dividend paying stocks this year. But last year when stocks where a lot cheaper, many had 20-25% dividends. I collected ~ $20k in dividends last year.

  • Eva S

    Actually I didn't read today's news, just heard the numbers disappointed. But the only thing that counts is market's reaction. Also, when jobs market improves, the unemployment #s may spike for a month or two.

  • Eva S

    You need to make this bet how much the stock will selloff the ex-div day. OXPS has a nice base, but I would never buy after these 2 big gaps.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Small caps have been strong today.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • Eva S

    My laptop was heating up and the fan was making a lot of noise. Someone told me to buy a computer duster. I went to a local store and was using a self checkout register. When I scanned the duster can it triggered a big alarm. A manager showed up and asked me to prove I am not under age! You need a driver's license to dust your computer. Apparently kids inhale these dusters. LOL

  • amokta

    If its heating up that bad, may be it needs opening up and cleaning out properly. Plus, sometimes the fan may be on its last legs – re bearnings – probably easy to get changed. Also, sometimes some rogue applications run the processor at 100%, causing fan to run constantly & heating. Also opening too many tabs, running flash etc causes firefox to hog the processor?

  • Eva S

    Thanks for the info. Recently the fan has been out of control. I need to have it checked by someone because this duster wasn't helpful…

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    End of the day ramp? or plunge?

  • amokta

    Im sure youve checked, but worth seeing under 'performance' tab on task manager (ctrl-alt-del) what % your CPU is running. If fan is still on fast when cpu% is runnning close to zero, then there is something more serious going on!

    Anyway, lets see where we close today!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    on OEX? SPY?

  • amokta

    nasdaq is green?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_VSVXKYHCX5MPKIR6C2MRTTL42U Celtic33

    Buy WNR. going to $12.50 next week

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    what do you all think? end of the day ramp up? or we fall from here? SPX

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mind restating your collected dividends in terms of percent, not dollars?

  • ronebadger

    or, we can end flat, just like we got

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    thanks. I am hoping for a sell off to about 1%….but wishful thinking huh?

  • Eva S

    In percent of what?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    when do buyers/sellers start coming in and why do they wait until the end of the day?? are all fridays ending up?

  • raised_by_wolves

    A little bragging is okay around here but not when it's stated in dollars. Instead, use percent of total account or percent of individual trade please.

  • Eva S

    I didn't realize it would hurt you so much. LOL All I wanted to say last year was great for dividends, probably much better than this year.

  • amokta

    When i stated a dollar amount (wasnt very big!) some while ago, it was edited into '$$$' by someone!
    Mind you there are more and more people stating dollar amounts recently

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Operation date.

  • raised_by_wolves

    That was me. People aren't allowed to state dollar amounts here in the comment section. Since you're a moderator, you can help enforce that rule.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sweet.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You could use the XML and write script that parses it. It's really not that complicated:

    http://articles.techrepublic.c

    Then you just have the Perl script output a CSV file (the way you need it) and you're done.

    Unfortunately I am completely slammed right now otherwise I'd write it for you. Maybe someone else here with coding talents is up for the job? ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If you are all over the place you are nowhere.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm focusing on the silver chart.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, the Zero says we stay below the upper VWAP 2.0 Stdv. line, which is at 1220.68.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    which tells us we end in the red?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, the signal does not support that today. Flat as a flounder, which means there is no confidence on either side. Usually the prevailing trend – well, prevails.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    looks like we are getting weakness….anyone have a chart to confirm how low it will go before support takes us back up? needs some help here in the last 40 minutes of the day….thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just put it in the dishwasher – but make sure it's got a 'dishwasher safe' label.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Download Spybot Search & Destroy. Run it. I'm sure it'll find tons of stuff.

  • amokta

    I assume the reason for this is that that are newbies, small traders and big traders, seasoned pros & learners on the blog, and seeing someone placing larger trades might influence newbies/learners to take on more risk (size-wise) than they might do otherwise

  • BobbyLow

    A couple of years ago, my Toshiba Laptop did the same thing where the fan would make a lot of noise and heat up. The problem with laptops is that you have to really know what you are doing once you open them up. Mine also began developing other problems so I just went to Walmart and bought a $300 Computer. The $300 Computer works better and faster than the one it replaced that had cost me $1,300. And if this one goes, I'll just buy another one. Also, Laptops are relatively inexpensive now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think 1216.6 will be the wall for today.

  • Eva S

    LOL

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    interesting. I am thinking of subscribing and have been reading the tutorial …read it about 5 times, trying to figure out how I would incorporate it into my trading….right now I need some confirmation that we will end in red…otherwise i am screwed….

    thanks mole

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    wall meaning where we end?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, it's the lower VWAP line and the Zero indicates that there is no confidence either way. Thus my mental masturbation tells me that we remain range bound in this session.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are SCREWED? Sounds like someone who is over committed in a big way! My advice: Lower your exposure to 'not-screwed levels'.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    if 1216 is the lower end, what is the upper end?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And don't 'double down'.

  • Eva S

    I would never say “I made $5k or $10k today” even though many times I do. But stating that I made $20k in dividends in the whole year is not really bragging. I'm sure many people made a lot more. Just use common sense!

  • SW6

    Have a good week-end everyone!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    so are we going to pop higher here?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Alright, since you're a noob and I'm feeling generous today:

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See below.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Make sure you monitor copper futures. It's remained slightly positive pretty much the entire day, and it's near the highs right now. Unless you copper futures make an unexpected plunge, the odds are low that ES or SPX will.

    If I controlled the market, I would close it slightly green.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just painted this on the Zero chart:

    “IF you are short set a stop near 1222 – if we bust through that they'll paint it higher for the weekend.”

    Now, the first attempt failed – but someone with pockets seems to be trying.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    fascinating, thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Have you confirmed that over time? The daily seems to be leading the ES but I usually stick with the Zero when it comes to intra-day action.

    Not that I have all the answers – show me a chart that's convincing and I'll consider it.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Stainless Steel Hamster wouldn't allow it. Let's see if Mole is more lenient.

  • amokta

    I know :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I clean with an iron broom.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Check this out: http://content.screencast.com/

    Copper actually lagging a bit (in white).

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HJFSNDPKKEMLPCLRW4K556EDOM Martin Leonard

    1222 breached….to the moon now for the end fo the day??>?

  • Eva S

    If I said how much I made this week, my post would be deleted in a sec! :-)

  • volar

    how much higer over the weekend?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Someone is painting the session – not the moon but we could be taking out yesterday's highs.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You mean on Sunday? Tough to say as it seems to be one or two players painting this thing higher now. Too much can happen – as you surely know. I mainly focus on the session at this point – everything beyond is Isaac Asimov to me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Have a cold one on me.

  • amokta

    Picasso?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And it is done :-) Told ya guys…

  • Hinkognito

    EOD almost expected. Thanks for all the charts and insight Mole. Happy weekend everyone.

  • volar

    have stop at 1226… going home for the weekend… hope we dont gap up there…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Braveheart.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Monet.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

  • amokta

    :-) Somebody found 50million worth of old Picassos recently

  • gsavli

    and 51 mill. EUR worth chinese vase.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not found – he was the janitor who worked for the family back when. Says that he was given those for services rendered. If it's true then he's the richest janitor on the planet.

  • Eva S

    It was interesting that he found those painting just when the statute of limitation had expired.

  • amokta

    I was concerned, if you dropped it by accident or something – they need to set the whole thing in a large cube of see through rubberised plastic-polymer

  • amokta

    The family are trying some legal case in any event?

  • convictscott

    RBW just got filled short on si h1 at the old high of 29.410

  • gsavli

    imagine you have kids around it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I didn't know that! WOW – that is very convenient – LOL :-))

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What's that?

  • BobbyLow

    Interesting that Gold is finishing at the HOD and is holding over $1,400.00. My GLL Short working out nice as it is down over 4% today.

    Can't know for sure but it looks like Christmas Rally Time come hell of high water.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Prechter is still waiting for that long overdue correction ;-)

  • bensjoyce

    I'm about to start “automated trading” with ninja trader. I have a rather simple scheme that appears to double my account consistantly over a 3 week period. I have eyeballed the trades by scrolling and kept track of the pips lost or gained. I have NOT performed computer backtesting yet.

    What are the odd of this performance being true? It looks great to me.

  • amokta

    What mechanism are you short GLL (direct the stock via broker, or via put options?) – i.e. you are effectively long on gold
    p.s. how did you know to enter a long gold trade – TA, gut feeling, or divine knowledge :)

  • BobbyLow

    It's too bad that Prechter didn't have the name Proctor as in Proctologist because it would be more fitting for what Bears have been put through. :)

    http://www.offthemarkcartoons….

  • volar
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Goodie in the mail for you.

  • bensjoyce

    I'm about to start “automated trading” with ninja trader. I have a rather simple scheme that appears to double my account consistantly over a 3 week period. I have eyeballed the trades by scrolling and kept track of the pips lost or gained. I have NOT performed computer backtesting yet.

    What are the odd of this performance being true? It looks great to me.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • convictscott

    What R value (percentage of your account) are you risking on your trades? How frequently is it trading? What percentage of winners is it giving?

    This performance will not be true, but when developing systems the initial eyeball results should be jaw dropping like this.

    Likely you have a good workable idea, which when refined will give you a useable system.

  • 99er

    ES
    Bears next week.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com
    Have a great weekend!

  • convictscott

    March silver, doing a speculative turtle soup trade on a mini position. Got filled at 29410, stop is 1 tick above the daily high at 29490… 17 pip stop on a daily trade with potential downside is betting odds for me.

    As for the odds of it working out, virtually nothing. I'm slightly encouraged by it being filled at the same time as the EOD es ramp, so I suspect it was a little short squeeze at the top.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Sup guys,

    Long time. How's everyone doing here?

  • BobbyLow

    I'm short GLL Stock that has been borrowed from my broker. And yes this makes me Long Gold. (I also have some cheap GLL December Calls for temporary protection against a sudden Gold Bubble Bursting.) I'm pretty much a chicken shit right now. LOL

    I entered the trade yesterday based on T/A which is a series of simple moving averages and oscillators that told me that GLD was showing strength again. Although not a necessary component, GLD was also in the third day of being back above the Center Bollinger Band.

    Then there is an opposite Fear Trade as the VIX goes down Gold seems to want to ramp up?

    Anyhow, so far so good and being short GLL as opposed to being long GLD works out better for the maintenance requirements of my account .

    Exit points are still a work in progress for me. In any event, as Convict Scott says, the most important thing is to work your plan that has rules that you have back tested and that has positive expectancy so that you can enter trades with a degree of confidence – Win, Lose or Draw. :)

  • amokta

    Im sure you gave me some advice on options around march 2009!

  • amokta

    With that rate of geometric progression, starting with $100K, how long before you accumulated all dollars in the money supply :-)

    Hope it works out for you with a good system

  • bensjoyce

    thank you sir! buy that man a cigar

  • convictscott

    RBW – todays open interest across silver vs yesterdays

    si z0 1945 1809
    si h1 80941 80995
    si k1 13355 13313
    si n1 8905 8896
    si z1 9464 9432

    total 114610 114445

    Interesting that the total OI is decreasing day on day, inconsistent with a move with a lot to go. What is significant to me, is that the open interest in the front month (made up of speculators) is still rising, but every other month (which are traded by the big funds and producers) is decreasing.

    I still think gold is a better vehicle for the short than silver (the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but thats the way to bet), since we now have a situation where silver was able to pip its old highs, but gold was not (dow theory non-confirm, even though dow theory has ceased working this year so must be treated with suspicion). FWIW the same non com existed today between es futures and spx, spx not breaking to new highs with es.

    My trade plan on this is to attempt to turn an intraday trade into a daily trade (turtle soup for part of the position), then a weekly. I'm leaving a small position open with a 17pip stop on silver, and I will add to the position in gold on any retest of todays gold high towards the end of next week. Of course gold shooting to new highs invalidates the whole concept and the trade comes off the table. Gold is still a retest variation sell on a break of the weekly low, I think the odds are not good but reasonable that we could be forming a major top.

    And for the icing on the cake, Cramer just issued a buy on gold. The last time he did that it dropped from 1420 to 1320 ;-)

  • bensjoyce

    R value about 50% . trades 4X per day per whatever contract. 60% losers 50% winners

  • raised_by_wolves

    Observation (1): If SPX is -0.33 percent, copper or another favorite “risk asset” is +0.33 percent, and silver is higher than gold, it's stupid to short SPX just because “we are getting weakness” by moving down to -0.50, especially while the “risk asset” of choice stays positive and the silver to gold ratio stays steady. It doesn't even matter if the “risk asset” is leading or following in this case when what looked like SPX leading down was little more than noise. The idea is to have reference points and use your reference points to avoid shorting noise. I have to see something more convincing than “looks like we are getting weakness” to go short.

    Observation (2): While it is causal observation and therefore may be erroneous, I think the copper to dollar ratio tends to bottom before SPX during intraday trading. Look at today for instance. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Following this observation has resulted in missing good long entries every once in a while, but it has resulted in missing a lot of bad long entries. It keeps me from wasting my precious few day trades.

    Maybe these observations are really nothing more than superstitions. Even if that is so, they're all bad omen superstitions, not good luck ones. Thinking you have good luck on your side and deciding to trade is a lot more dangerous than thinking there are bad omens out there and deciding not to trade, right? I'm constantly deciding not to trade. But that's me, and I could be wrong.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Double your account consistently every three weeks? Ever heard of compound rules? You should own earth in about two years then ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    May I say that it is insanely high, Ben…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Still kicking – it's an arms race.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehehe – Cramer…

    Silver vs. Gold – well, it depends how you look at it. You could say that Silver is more overbought than Gold and thus may snap back quicker. Why not go 50/50 with both?

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    I have something to make you proud I will post that with you from home. Cheers!

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    I hope i was able to help Cheers!!

  • amokta

    :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    VIX: Must…. not…. breach… 17.70…

    Monday should be interesting.

  • gsavli

    mondays always are.

  • convictscott

    I get low of 17.71… whats the interpretation?

  • convictscott

    Thats what I'm doing :) Taking the turtle soup position with nominal risk in silver, and topping up with a real position in gold if the trade moves in my favour.

    For me backtesting indicates that the odds favour the weaker of any related pair suffering more in a decline. Case in point the recent fall from the highs in silver and gold, gold took it in the ass harder than silver.

  • convictscott

    R value of 50% your risk of ruin is 100% guaranteed! I will take the other side of your trades if you want ;-)

    If you have 60% winners you need to be using an R value of NO HIGHER than 2.5%

    Also, a system which initially looks at 60% winners, in the real world will probably test out much less than this.

    What is your expectancy per trade ((R from winners – R from losers)/number of trades) A good system should be at least .2 expectancy

  • convictscott

    Your odds of surviving a single week in the markets are roughly the same as walking into the casino, putting your whole wad on black at the roulette wheel, and leaving your winnings on black every time the wheel spins.

    For 20 consecutive spins.

  • volar

    hell I always add Put positions there… why not?.. the risk to reward is great

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for baking the cake! I've added frosting.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • bluprint

    Seems you guys might be talking past each other. “r value” to me means thermal resistance. I know you use “R” to indicate something like “acceptable amount of risk” of a trade (is that a standard term in the financial industry or something you made up?). Expressed as a percentage I assume you are referring to percentage of total account?

    I wonder if he is use “R value” to refer to the coefficient of determination of a regression analysis…? In any case I think you guys are missing each other terminology. No way this guy is actually going to bet half his account on “50 percent winners”.

    Note: How can you have “60% losers 50% winners”? wtf? Maybe all winners are losers if held long enough? lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I didn't produce this one – was sent to me by a friendly soul. I spent the last two hours customizing it and just added today's auction. Liking it – although I am still surprised that the massive sell off in 2008 took so long to trickle into the crash. Which makes me wonder what that means to the current buying frenzy.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly my point.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look at the chart mate…

  • BobbyLow

    Not too long ago, I would have become extremely nervous that you were on the opposite side of my Long Gold Trade. And then to hear that Cramer said to buy Gold on top of that is a Fricken Jinx. :)

    But I'm still running a strong winning percentage of Winners Vs. Losers so I'm going to hang in there. The one area that I still suck at is managing the trade after it begins to become successful. I'm keeping written records and have already found more than one area that I can improve in.

    On the topic of Getting Rich real quick and easy in this business, I can attest to trying almost every get rich scheme in the world and I feel fortunate to have barely enough seed money left to still be in the game. Sometimes they make it sound so easy like the TV Commercial “It's So Easy a Caveman Can Do It”. Well good luck with that.

    I still would like to hook up with some face time. Funny thing is after I downloaded and got set up, I got on it once and haven't been on it since. The toughest thing is that I'm burned out by the time your getting up. I still look forward to it though.

  • OldChicago

    Mole – isn't a megaphone an ending-diagonal? Last it occured, it broken down briefly and reverse hard.

  • Eva S

    That's true, it's cheaper to buy a new computer than try to fix the old one. Laptops don't have a good ventilation system and the vent and the hottest place is actually on the bottom, where it touches the table or your lap. :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Even though the flash crash happened when the line went flat, the high occurred early in the rally. If the Fed is able to influence the market the same way again, then the last couple months have just been the first phase of the rally. Based on this assumption, we've done at most wave 1 and 2 of 5 up. TRAN at least would revisit its all-time highs. SPX may too. I wouldn't even be surprised to see NDX revisit the dot com bubble highs.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, that's part of the reason.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Dude, you should have been looking for reasons why the market could end in green. If you look for evidence to confirm your bias, you will find it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C

  • amokta
  • amokta

    Thanks BobbyLow
    with PMs being even more tricky to trade (so says even Mole), i was curious as to your entry criteria
    I too was concerned that CS is potentially short silver – but i suppose depends on time-frames, both long & then short might work out sucessfully

  • kbmck

    With all you guys

    With all you guys (gal) so bullish, I'm beginning to (still) thinking the top in scenario is very likely.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm didn't take an intraday position with the retest happening at the end of the day and the weekend coming up. There could possibly be a gap up on Monday and there would certainly be theta burn.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I will short silver or neither.

    The method I'm using involves comparing silver, silver to SPX, and silver to gold. I'll make sure that silver is weaker than SPX and gold before I dare short.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hmm, the big funds could be rotating out of silver and into something else.

  • Clint

    If you can pull that off in reality, you'll be more famous than Warren Buffett in about 6 months. Wealthier too.

  • Joe_Jones

    Thank you for the goodies. Very interesting. Looking forward next week already.

  • Joe_Jones

    Check the RSI divergence on the 60 min : http://stockcharts.com/def/ser

    Definitively not bullish.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who's bullish?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If your correlation shows more weakness in gold then you're good to go it seems.

  • Fearless

    Mole, on the DZ, have you ever seen a positive reading as gigantic as what we saw a few days ago since the DZ's inception? I am curious because I don't know if it signifies anything.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm split on that – I know what caused it and I'm not 100% sure that TOS' data feed is accurate. I just glanced at my NinjaTrader version and it does not have this big spike. So I would recommend to simply ignore it. NT runs against IQFeed which is a better data feed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Reload page to see edited comment.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well, I did post an NDX to 5000 chart.

  • bensjoyce

    where can i get this information? anyplace on the web you recommend?

    “If you have 60% winners you need to be using an R value of NO HIGHER than 2.5%”

    how do you know this?

  • raised_by_wolves

    It's difficult to be bearish with all this Fed liquidity spilling into the market.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    255 comments (sigh)
    so close, yet so far.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Be afraid, be very afraid.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    If I borrowed three billion dollars from the Federal Reserve at zero percent interest, what assets would I buy?

  • raised_by_wolves

    You like to spending Friday night here too, huh?

  • OldChicago

    uh… what's the pink line?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Gollum_Gerb, he wants us above the line. He wants it. He needs it. Must have the precious.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    We believe it's the liquidity that the Fed pumps or drains from the system. Notice the delayed effect, which differs from what most traders usually believe about POMOs, namely that POMOs affect the markets that very same day.

    In the comment section the other night, Mole posted this link:

    http://quantifiableedges.blogs

  • raised_by_wolves

    Here's something related I just read on ZeroHedge.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

  • raised_by_wolves

    Wake up, Old . . . ;-)

    The Matrix has you . . .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Strippers – tons of strippers.

  • convictscott

    God bless them, and all who sail in them

  • convictscott

    Typically in trend days negative momo divergences occur, with 2 trend days in a row its not surprising to get this.

    One of the tricks of trading trend days is to ignore these divergences and trade only on price. I learnt something about the zero lite this week when it gave the first failed divergence in months, causing me to get out of a long trade prematurely.

  • convictscott

    Good man, dont bend those fucking rules for anyone :) How does silver get to be weaker than gold and spx though?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well, you simply adjust your timescale. If silver has strength on the long and intermediate time scales (as it currently does) but shows weakness on a short time scale (hypothetically, this upcoming Monday), then it can be considered for a scalp but not (yet) for a multi-month position trade.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Would I buy domestic, small cup strippers or large cup strippers? Or would I buy emerging market strippers? Brazilian? Russian? These are serious questions.

  • convictscott

    Gotcha, though IMO the chance of a gap n go Monday is insignificant. Lets be honest, its all related to SPX at this point. SPX is virtually *at* the old highs…. if we break and hold above, I'm a bulltard. If we break and then fall or dont get through the substantial and significant resistance, then this market could fall rather hard.

    The significance of the resistance, and the strong rally over the last few days, mean that the odds favour a sideways rest before another assault on fresh highs.

  • convictscott

    Bobby, I'm on at weird hours, and email works too :) Dont be freaked that you are on the other side of the trade to me, its a trade with a low probability of working for me. Think about it, I'm trying to pick the exact top of a multi year bull market, virtually to the tick (well, I'm allowing myself 17 ticks), and *then* pyramid that into a more substantial position and hold it for a 100R win.

    Doesnt that sound like the definition of a long shot to you?

    Its an interesting quirk of the human dna that something which by definition is a miniscule chance of working (top picking) can seem like it has a better than even chance of success. That *delusion* has been the ruin of many traders and I need rules to govern how I trade top picking exercises.

    In real terms the odds of this being the epoch of silver really rely on spx failing at the resistance it is now at. And we all know that isnt that likely. However I think the odds are better than 1:100, probably more like 1:10. For me, thats betting odds, on an extremely small position.

    Your win loss ratio is probably better than mine last month, although I was cushioned by a few outlier wins :)

  • raised_by_wolves

    SPX is virtually *at* the old highs…. if we break and hold above, I'm a bulltard.

    Me too.

  • convictscott

    If you buy a 1st year college statistics textbook, or take an introductory statistics course (I did statistics at university as part of my degree) you can work it out for yourself.

    Its very simple mathematics

  • convictscott

    PM's are a shitty market, gold more so than anything, there are weird fundamental cross currents, the zero on the wheel of central bank disposals, and seasonality (which I dont usually trade) affects it more than in other markets.

  • raised_by_wolves

    MIT OpenCourseWare: 18.05 Introduction to Probability and Statistics

    Lecture notes:

    http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mat…/

    Hmm, I should go through these myself.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Fearless

    Since I was off yesterday, I could not watch the market and take actions in real-time, but some auto-fill stuff did the tricks. My IVN calls got sold for 225% gain, and my synthetic protections got swapped (sold lower stike calls for profit while triggering a buy for higher strike calls).

    The market never went down to my target of 1210, but upon looking at the EOD data, I am thinking to myself that bulls may have just screwed themselves over with an EOD ramp. You see, today's volume is significantly lower than the previous two days, which would have been a good day to close in the red for an upside continuation on Monday. Instead the bulls/Fed had to ramp it up into the close, which actually makes the break of 1219.8 resistance a possible fake-out. The first breakout bar (of 1219.8) was high volume while the second bar's volume is about 75% of that of the first bar. I think Monday is a red day of possibly 1% or so, and it could even be a major distribution bar. Of course the market can surprise us with a ramp above 1227.08 but then the bigger problem may again be volume non-confirmation.

    VIX positive divergence galore just got bigger. Look at the RSI and MACD on the daily! Beautiful! I would like to see a print of 16.6 on Tuesday and fill that final gap below. Then we would only have gaps above to fill.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • rg64

    Here comes Santa here come Santa right down Santa lane. The tape told us the bears would yet again get kicked in the d.
    Now we will continue to rally been long since 1180 moved stop to 1216 see more upside as jonny come laters and funds pile into trade to improve there end of year performance numbers. Do not shore this move. Over out

  • 99er

    Weekend Charts
    SPX
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com
    There's more but Disqus won't accept a profile link that starts with a number. Fuck Disqus.
    Have a great weekend, folks!

  • Clint

    Yes… it looks like 1180 “may” be the new 1040.

  • 99er

    As If Gold Weren't Enough

    American investment bank bought up more than half the copper on the London Metal Exchange, pushing the spot price to its highest level since the financial crisis in October 2008.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin

    Banksters suck blocks.

  • convictscott

    Fearless, I'm in agreement *again* which is getting to be a habit :)

    What I'm seeing is that the 2 trend days attack at the highs has worked off some of the oversold momentum. The significant thing for me is that each day after the first day has decreased range, indicating a move that is tiring.

    The old highs is significant resistance. The market faces a choice, through the old highs, fucking around with a tug of war (highest probability) or falling straight down (likely with a gap n crap)

    Bottom line is that nobody knows at this point. Expectations to the upside have been fulfilled, there will be sellers at this point (a good 3 days profit for any longs will beg to be banked) the unanswered question is whether fresh longs on the sidelines will push it over the line of new highs.

    I see no high probability trades in either direction until the market tips its hand. If the market gaps up on Monday I will be looking hard at the $tick in the first 45 mins, if it remains above zero nearly all the time I'll be long and looking for another upside trend day causing a huge run to the upside. If the market gaps without supporting market internals, I'd likely be treating it as a gap fade proposition. Because of the increased time over the weekend Monday gaps have an increased probability of gap n crap.

    I'm only trading intraday next week *until* the market tips its hand, that means not taking the first short setup that appears, waiting for a retest of that setup.

  • convictscott

    Forgot a simple chart
    http://www.masterkillers.com/w

  • convictscott

    Why a serious student of modern portfolio theory would invest in a hedged multinational basket of strippers.

  • convictscott

    Call me stupid, I still dont get it

  • convictscott

    Bobby, something that might interest you is traderdna dot com , they track your exits on trades, compared with the hypothetical maximums you could have got out of the trade (for the time in) and start to give you objective feedback on how optimised your exits are. Its pretty neat stuff.

    For me a very simple exit ruleset is working quite well. I noticed by going through all of my old trades that every single one of my 4R and above winners happened with price embedded in the bollinger band. I also noticed that when the bollinger bands are flat the top of the band acts as significant resistance, and the odds do not favour additional strength.

    I then put in place a different ruleset for each of these conditions, then pulled all of those results out of my spreadsheet. I then took all of the remaining winning results, and looked at the distribution. By eyeballing it, I was able to come up with a sweet spot where exiting trades at 2R instead of trailing a stop stopped more 2R trades from becoming less than 2R than I gained from 2R trades becoming 3R trades.

    I'm certain that an additional set of rules around taking profits at moving average supports, or intermediate confluence support would be optimal.

    I'm *certain* a more scientific approach could improve greatly on this, and I'm also certain that any trader wishing to improve his performance should forget about entries (as I've conclusively shown a setup as simple and easy as an inside day on $spx has a positive market expectancy) and work on exits.

  • ds2
  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    I guess if your coffers are sloshing with cash you got to do something with it. Why would they want to corner the Copper market. Control the bath plug perhaps, when they decide it's time to drain the system?

  • convictscott

    I should add, if I am stopped out on my silver short I will actively be looking for long entries – I've got no view at all atm other than the risk reward favours it, huge risk with even greater rewards

  • amokta

    Is this true – silver manipulatiOn/JPM

    Anyway, is the accent Australian or NZ accent?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v

  • 99er
  • Joe_Jones

    It is amazing how bearish views on any other blogs / “news” sites have simply disappeared. Gone, poof!, DOW 36000 next. The whole investment community is on one side of the boat: bullish stocks and P.M., except Prechter of course. Wow! If the rule of 95% of investors lose their money is to be applied, we should either get a “surprise” soon or throw this latter rule to the bin. IMO though, it is difficult to accept that the banksters will allow sheep to bank coins on their back. The market is made to take money out of dump investors. That is how it has always been. I am personally scared of going long due to flash crashes. Everything can go rosy until the point where there are no more HFT bids and in 15 min you are wiped-out, and your stops may just not work due to an absence of buyers. The risk-reward is IMO not worth it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seven more comments – come on guys!!! We can do it!

  • Brishort

    Hello all,

    Back from a week of vacations…taking a full break from the market… I see I didn't miss much except perhaps another wedgie for the shorts. Will now start reading all your fine comments from last week :-)

  • Brishort

    If I could recommend, never look at your performace in terms of dollars, but rather % gained or loss per trade. This will give you a better assessment of the real quality of the automated trading system you are using. Google “trading systems that work” book from Stridsman, this is the place to start before you venture into $$ investing to properly understand automated trading benchmarking performance

  • psycho_puppies

    What are we doing?

  • Fearless

    Waiting for 300 comments before you put up a new post?

    I actually would like to see a slight higher high on Tuesday with the bar closing more than 50% off its high. The NYMO negative divergence will be so huge by then. We did have the positive divergence on the NYMO with the NYA making a lower low (so did the DJIA, but not the SPX) in late November. It will be interesting to see both the positive and negative divergence. What gives?

  • rg64

    I dont see that at all…..Still just as many people calling for death as always. NOTHING has changed in that respect.

  • psycho_puppies

    #300!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sounds like you need to do some back reading (I've posted this links before but assume you missed them) . . . .

    March 25th, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

    April 9th, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

    May 1st, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

    May 9th, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

    July 14th, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

    October 26th, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

    October 27th, 2010

    http://www.zerohedge.com/artic

    If you think news is tradable, you can front run the “lag stream media” by reading Zero Hedge. I personally subscribe to the news doesn't matter during the time frames I'm trading philosophy.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I predict that Mole is going to have a hell good weekend post about POMOs.

  • Joe_Jones
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