Happy Monday Morning Briefing

I trust you all enjoyed a relaxing and peaceful Thanksgiving weekend. No holidays over here in Spain but I didn’t let that deter me from kicking back a little and catching up on some good movies. Scott and I worked a little on our secret project but we didn’t exactly put the petal to the metal – we all need time to recharge our batteries. Never underestimate the psychological toll that trading can inflict on you – it is extremely important that you create your personal mental haven from this activity and to make sure that it is insulated as much as possible. There must be a refuge inside of you – that one thing you can rely on when things get rough. Mine is exercise and practicing martial arts – does wonders for me and if I miss only a few days I’m out of sync.

And for yours – well, whatever that is only you can figure out 😉

Alright let me climb off my soap box and on to the markets – the Dollar came across a stash of viagra this morning and it’s been running like gangbusters since. I think we may have some possible resistance near that upper 100-hour BB. If it gives then there’s a daily NLBL at 81.06 and right above it we’ve got the 100-day SMA. So expect some significant resistance straight ahead.

Now since it’s the Monday after a long weekend I’ll throw in a little long term perspective as well. Some of you subs have seen this chart on several occasions and you are all aware that the Dollar has been scraping the tipping point of a long term converging trend for a while now. We are right on top of the 25-month and 100-month SMA – the diagonal was briefly breached but then recovered at the close of October. The P&F is still pointing at 77 as you may recall but it’s refused to drop below 80 which I think would represent its death knell. Today’s ride higher is interesting and we shall see if the Dollar can recover back above its 100-month SMA, which incidentally should be lining up with its 100-day as well.

So on a short term basis I think it’s worthwhile to consider some short positions if the upper 100-hour BB line holds. A little pop higher is possible but if we approach the 91 mark I’ll be looking to be short. If we breach it – well, I would have to follow price and flip positions. Not an easy trade as the month just started but since the 100-day SMA lines up so nicely we may have a unique opportunity to positioned ourselves long term and manage our trade from a daily perspective all the way into Christmas.

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Cheers,