How Low Can You Go?

This is going to be a very brief weekly update for two reasons. One – I’m extremely slammed this weekend as I have another looming deliverable for tomorrow morning. Two – there is really not much to be added to last week’s long term review – all those charts look pretty much identical. There is a lot of noise as of late related to the high frequency signing (HFS) scandal that’s slowly gaining traction in the MSM. Last I heard a class action lawsuit was filed against Countrywide, California’s attorney general called for a halt on all current foreclosure proceedings, Bank of America issued a moratorium on all foreclosures, MERS is on a PR mission to preemnt some heat lurking behind the corner, etc. – the list is long. And the pundits are livid – on both ends of the spectrum.

So I can understand that some the bears (well, the few who are left) are salivating at the possibility of equities finally taking a tumble to the downside. It’s a common mistake. You know – correlating major news with moves in the stock market. How can this shitstorm of negative headlines not put a dent in the market’s ability to melt even higher?

Here’s your answer: Let’s not be stupid, shall we?

Just ask yourself – how long has all that and more been leaking out now? I mean Wall Street has been embroiled in one mind boggling scandal after the other for over a year now. Corruption is rampant, enforcement is lax at best or non-existent at worst, and if one bothers to look beyond the MSM headlines there’s plenty of opportunity to ruin your mood over how yet another bankster got away with some shady game costing us taxpayers a bundle in the end. In short – risk has been socialized and guess what -  you’re the one paying the tab.

Will there be a final reckoning and are we going to see handcuffs and orange jumpsuits for Halloween? Of course not!

Listen my dear steel rats – if you have been frequenting this blog for more than a week then I hope that by now you have learned one thing once and for all:

The top dogs always get away with it – they always have and they always will.

There is no final justice.

The banks are running our nation.

Game over.

Until we see blood in the streets none of that will change. If we’re lucky we’ll see a few scapegoats being sacrificed, just in time to appease the masses before the mid term elections. But trust me when I tell you this – the boyz are not sweating. Think about it this way: what’s the worst that happened two years ago? If you and I plan some heist at our local bank and get caught with welding torches in our hands we’d be sweating bullets and probably look at some quality time with bubba for the next decade or two. But just imagine if the cops would just snicker and before letting you go tell you to ‘just not let it happen again’? What’s the incentive for staying on the straight path and working for a living? Exactly right – none! We’d be back at the drawing board the very next day planning our next sting. After all – the benefits greatly outweigh the risks of playing the game.

In short: Until hell freezes over there is no downside risk for the pervs running our financial system. And although some intrepid voices like Alan Grayson are trying to rail the masses, reality is that 99% of the public out there does not have a clue and is more focused on American Idle reruns.

So, abandon all hope for ultimate justice and thus a resulting downside correction in equities based on any news you come across. Focus on your charts – the few that make sense these days. Of course that does not mean that the market won’t tank – but as I pointed out last week – most likely it won’t happen when you expect it.

Besides there’s only one chart that really matters right now, which is the DXY. And the one question in all our minds of course is this:



Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or Zero Pimp-A-Thon or geronimo/ES (recurring) or evil.rat/ES to view this content.

This entry was posted on Sunday, October 10th, 2010 at 2:31 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yes, all very weird feeling at the minute. The window is there though.

    DJIA channel for you I found interesting.

    wide angle: http://bit.ly/aEpJQg
    close-up: http://bit.ly/dBebCk

  • 99er
  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    So you want to see a chart that at least hints at the possibility of impending Euro weakness then?

    http://bit.ly/dg5wn7

    USDJPY on a trendline too – could potentially be 1, 2, 3 of diagonal down. Doesn't look finished to my eyes at any rate. It's so close to the '95 low that it would be surprising if it was not tested at some point.

    http://bit.ly/d1LLpm

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    The middle chart is GLD/SLV. You can see this is an excellent indicator, when this ratio is at a bottom, the market usually tanks, within 3 to 5 days, but sometimes immediately. The trick is figuring out when the bottom is.

    This top chart is SPY/VIX I plotted it just to see if any interesting effects came up….none really

    The Bottom chart is SPX, the S&P 500, follow each purple line from the GLD/SLV bottoms. Amazing methinks. The two highlighted candle patterns are similar, the first one started the Head of the infamous 2009 Head and Shoulders Bear trap. The second one is NOW.

    And finally, a boatload of other charts for your free consumption.

    Like this stuff? Sign up as a follower and then follow on your Google reader.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    Hey there. Those look like Cuty Index charts. I use them. I posted some charts on my blog…FTSE, S&P and Dollar, all fairly simple stuff.

    Nice megaphone in the FTSE.

    A weird tick error at the close on FTSE with City Index, showed a plunge down to 4600 I think, messes up the 5min charts, but maybe a glimpse of what lies ahead!

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yeah I think most of the spread betters use the same charting company – I like using them sometimes, I seem to get a different viewpoint from using different charting software.

    You prompted me to look at the DAX, which I don't do often enough. Diverging versus Dow/SPX on a weekly and daily basis – now that *is* interesting…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes DAX has definitely been underperforming..HOWEVER..if IT does break out at 6360 convincingly then the BULLS are back in town for a while…
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/TKL2SV7-4tI/AAAAAAAAAis/iCgI24VLa_o/s1600/DAXdaily.png

    BUT in the past the DAX has usually been a leading index…so the divergence is definitely interesting…

  • convictscott

    Mole, I wholeheartedly agree that its just not possible for market to turn down while the DX has not found a bottom. My big fear at the moment is a little more of this sort of strength will generate its own momentum and change the game up, to the point where the market can continue its melt up even without USD assistance.

    I think this chart of what happened in the run up to the April highs nicely illustrates this. The Jan top looked perfect as perfect could be, USD looked to have found a bottom, the decline looked like an impulse wave, it retraced slow and sloppy to 61%…. then the bulls fuck it up, and the melt up began. I remember that melt up. It felt like it was about to stop any day, like it was so dangerous to be long you could not do it, it gave short setup after short setup, at fib levels, double tops, then once it cleared the old highs it got all choppy like it was having trouble going up. But it just kept on going up.

    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image60.png

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

    There are 12 Heavy hitters reporting this week—They can either move the DIA or the sector they are in, OR both.

    http://zstock7.com/?p=3469

  • amokta

    Anyone got a view on $GMCR – recent drop on SEC investigation
    Will it go any lower, or is this a 'BP' and has bottomed now?
    i have some puts, might sell this week

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “My big fear at the moment is a little more of this sort of strength will generate its own momentum and change the game up, to the point where the market can continue its melt up even without USD assistance.”

    Exactly – I kind of eluded to that in my post. I am not sure how a rallying Dollar would fit into equities and the scenario you are describing is a real possibility. Maybe that was the plan all the while – kill the Dollar until equities are pushed beyond reversal levels and have plenty of support zones below. Just in time for elections.

  • convictscott

    Stock picking is not my expertise, but it looks like a coin flip from here. The odds look high that a final top is in, but that high has not been retested, and a decent retrace to $32 would certainly be normal. If it were me I'd probably take some profits and look at any retest of the lows and subsequent strength as a clue to exit the position. On the bearish side price is firmly embedded in the daily lower bollinger band. Depends a lot which month and strike puts you are holding, again not my expertise.

  • convictscott

    I tell you, I had never believed in market manipulation before, thinking it was the sort of thing losers believed in.

    I've changed my mind.

    My trade plan now (after several failed attempt at the short side recently and one small profit long) is to take the next short setup when it appears, but be alert for a long signal appearing straight away. If that long signal appears, odds are that it will be a choppy hard to trade melt up, so I will run a very loose stop, trailing up at spike low's as they appear.

    There was similar price action in March, which gave a convincing looking top, a retest of that high, but painted a hammer candle (a bullish setup for my rules on break of the high)

    I have to admit, I'm tempted to not take the next short signal, which I count as a significant error, much more so than a losing trade. Despite the abundance of bearish technical signals, something is screaming in my subconscious that they stink of dodge.

  • convictscott
  • convictscott

    The fly posted an interesting video on his blog today. He is half muppet, half very smart guy, and his take on it made a lot of sense to me. Basically he thinks it shouldnt go up, but it probably will.

  • chronographics

    CS thats the Currencies for you. This is not new and has happened before. In the old days when we traded Dollar/Mark instead of Euro we saw most pick a top when it got to 2.8000 had been think 2.3000 (and lower) Big move,Governments didn't want it and economists said it wouldn't go higher. It finally topped at 3.47! Sterling dad dropped hugely and we were busy having parity party's as it broke below 1.05 Of course it never made it, feels like that again – that absolute certainty that the dollar continue to devalue. Don't want to stand in front of a roaring freight train but sure as hell don't want to be climbing aboard at this stage either. Watching my 4 hourly chart. Will post if something significant develops on it :-)

  • chronographics

    Mole, I guess that will depend on the reason for a USD rally(IMHO)
    If it is risk off scenario/flight to quality/European crises then I could see Dollar rally and Equities tank. Stronger Dollar would see worse offshore earnings and tougher for exporters, commodities drop reflected in sector pricing. But who knows how the market will read it. Just stick to the charts and go with the flow.

  • convictscott

    Good afternoon Chrono :) “Don't want to stand in front of a roaring freight train but sure as hell don't want to be climbing aboard at this stage either” Is exactly the way I feel about this move.

  • chronographics

    Hi Mate, well good to know I am not the only one standing on the platform as the midnight express goes roaring by :-)
    Patience was never my strongest suit…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The comment section here is living proof that the majority of retail traders have thrown in the towel at this point. I'm turning in – g'night.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Their loss, our gain.

  • Bob the Horse

    They'll be back when the market falls, getting short at the lows.

  • average_minimalist

    you WANT retail traders in the game. those are the only traders you have a chance at taking money from. the more dumb money in the game, the better your chances. once this thing gets to >90% HFT, game over.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good point. When that happens, I may be forced to go back to strip poker.

  • chronographics

    Come on Bob, you will want to buy your shorts back from somebody? :-)

  • chronographics

    Having just moved recently I am struggling to find the files/paperwork and or disks that I wanted to send you… Still looking but had some distractions on the weekend…..Sori :-(

  • chronographics

    Mole, the nature of Retail Traders I believe will never change (bullish ones or Bearish ones)
    Question is it just the comments section or the Traffic as well?
    Can you chart it and is it useful?
    Worth a thought….

  • jacksoo

    A MUST read article re currency issues and QEII by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard ; ;
    http://www.telegraph.co. uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8054066/Currency-wars-are- necessary-if-all-else-fails.html

  • juju2

    Sugar hit extended target of $27.24
    Raise stops.

    juju2 1 day ago

    • Sugar: mixed
    Stop at 25.74
    1st target: 27.17
    2nd extended: 29.95.

  • juju2

    Soybean oil hit 2nd target at 47.64
    Raise stops.

    juju2 1 day ago
    Bean oil: 1st target met. 2nd 47.58 target

  • 99er

    Charts
    DX
    EUR/USD
    USD/JPY
    ES
    Good luck!

  • jacksoo

    links not working 99er

  • 99er
  • 99er

    Thanks. Will look into it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Remember today is a bank holiday, so action will be slow. Hey, at least no POMO ;-)

  • amokta

    Catch a falling bid, and put it on my shoulder…
    Is the top in, is the bottom in, are we inflating, are we deflating, is gold rising, is gold falling???

    seriously, is it a bank holiday?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Today would be a perfect low volume day for a top. I'm not predicting; I'm just saying.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Vikings at Jets today!!

  • Eva S

    Columbus Day – a federal holiday – banks, post office etc

    Christopher Columbus, as everyone knows, is honored by posterity because he was the last to discover America.” –James Joyce, Irish writer

  • Eva S

    BTW, Dow above its “golden cross”
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p63119064249

    Dow above 11k but still below the 52 wk high

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Never heard that one before – I lol'd…

  • gsavli

    Wow, VIX looks cheap. It might look even cheaper at 16, but I can't imagine not seeing it over 20 ever again. :)

  • amokta

    Thanks Eva
    All aboard for the Bull-Express!

  • Eva S

    Don't fight the Fed. Stay with the trend. :-)

  • 99er
  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    This is instant death to any set-up, but… GOOG – the RSI rarely lies……………………

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p19337881259&a=203099654&listNum=1

  • amokta

    I fought the Fed, but I did not shoot the Deputy
    (am i getting 2 songs mixed up!)

  • Eva S

    LOL. I think it's a different tune.

  • ricebowl

    That was the first thing I looked at this morning and was going to comment, but you beat me…

    Party like it's April 2010! Now just keep an eye on bonds which are sending mixed signals.

  • yudhisthira

    Still above vwap. Light volume divergence on zero. Russell 2000 staying up. Just making some noise.

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    ES indicators – 6 timeframes at 13:00 EST

    http://www.screencast.com/t/byf1UHciJQA

  • ricebowl

    Can anyone see what bonds are doing today? Just curious. My feed is broken.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    EURJPY – it was the hot indicator for a while back there, interesting l/t trend that has just been respected once more – *if* we broke-out above this one though…

    http://bit.ly/aQmo9q

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    GOOG indicators – 6 timeframes at 13:15 EST

    http://www.screencast.com/t/zy9Qfw0V3cl

  • raised_by_wolves

    Take your time and no worries if you can't find everything.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Whoah… information overload.

    Interesting that your daily StochRSI is looking oversold. I was just looking at the 61.8% fib at 554.7 and also the similar RSI fractal around late November 09. May not be quite cooked through yet.

  • Nightwind

    The OBV indicator on the spy is depicting a almost perfect class A divergence from the April top. This rally is running on fumes of hope.

  • Tooncez

    is anyone else seeing strange behavior on vst uvol/dvol readings?

  • randomtrader

    calm before the breakout

  • yudhisthira

    Any fakeout before breakout?

  • yudhisthira

    /ES approached vwap.
    /TF just came back under upper deviation of VWAP. Not much weakness.

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    Ultra,

    The daily StochRSI on my GOOG charts is why I posted it for you. It has turned up from oversold. We might have several more days of upwards movement before it reaches overbought. Of course, the 42 minute and hourly are overbought now and looking to turn down. http://www.screencast.com/t/zy9Qfw0V3cl

    Filp a coin . . .

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Thanks. Watching for now..

  • chronographics

    Ricebowl – in case you haven't got frrd back yet its a 120 min chart trend line broke here BUT as Osc very low wud look perhaps or retest of line and topping Osc to sel but thats just me being cautious :-)
    http://screencast.com/t/P436Onst

  • chronographics

    Euro 4 Hourly
    Channel broken to downside. Ichi not giving negative signs yet BUT getting closer than it has for a while.
    Hourly and 4 hourly Osc O/S, but we will need to see positive price action to the upside to go with this, both short term Osc pointing up so if valid we should sees gains early – if not we are perhaps open later in the day for more downside
    http://screencast.com/t/wRfNT5PQ

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    I believe that Columbus Day closes the bond markets.

    Equity markets will be closed later in the week…limi down I think they call it?

  • randomtrader

    1170 close?

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    I had a meeting today with someone so smug in his bullishness that I now have 2 reasons for desiring a crash. Financial (obviously), and to see his smugness wiped off his smug-ugly face. Permabulls, fucking hate them!

  • randomtrader

    you think permabulls like you hahah

  • Eva S

    Can't we all get along?

  • 99er
  • yudhisthira

    Shake out before EOD? Had to run with the dogs of short, myself.

  • fisheggs

    More like TiMMMMMMAAAAAAAAYYYYYYY!

  • 99er
  • randomtrader

    i'm just saying…. no use in hating on permabulls cus they more than likely think permabears are idiots aswell or else they wouldnt be permabulls now would they… :P

  • randomtrader

    as soon as the bears get excited the bulls come back and shove it deep up their asses with plenty of satisfaction …. watch us close positive

  • randomtrader

    more like nothingburger

  • Rally_in_red

    Big unexpected plunge 6-7 points in 30 minutes.

    Hope it will be investigated by SEC!!

  • yudhisthira

    Be a nice trick if bulls can gap up tomorrow.

  • yudhisthira

    RUT not as happy as it was earlier in day.

  • Nightwind

    The currency markets could even overwhelm the Fed

  • randomtrader

    we're never going down :) it is against the administrations policy, if you cant fight the fed join its side… its so easy its like taking cookies from a baby

  • Eva S

    I'm not sure about the part of taking cookies from a baby….
    But I think this slow uptrend may continue until the elections.

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    ES indicators – 6 timeframes at End of Day:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZSaxxKf5ciiC

  • randomtrader

    Mary Schapiro should be investigating even 1 point drops being paid 8 million dollars a year…. 16x more than the president hahahahahaha wonder how you feel HOPEBAMA

  • Eva S

    Don't worry about Obama. He has other perks. Besides, who's going to buy Mary Schapiro's memoirs?

  • randomtrader

    A non profit group giving 800k per year in retirement benefits???? Enron could not have thought up a better accounting trick..

  • BobbyLow

    Buy Bots and HFT's were given time off for lubrication maintenance today.

    No need to work the machines hard as the Total SPY Volume was only at 50% of the last 3 months average daily SLOW SUMMER Volume. You know, that SLOW Summer Volume when all the Big Boyz are taking their well deserved vacation time in the Hamptons?

    And guess what, the VIX or I could say “Vixen” is saying that “the Market is Extremely Safe” and why don't you come on over and spend some time. All previous STD's have been cleared, preventative inoculations are in place and there is plenty of perfume to cover up that foul smell. It's perfectly safe Boys. Come on in, you know you want to. :)

  • convictscott

    You crack me up!

  • amokta

    It called jobs & benefits for the ruling classes & their hangers on

  • convictscott

    Finally something interesting on my morning work. I turned the PC off and got a full nights sleep here for once, and woke up to a potential topping point on the euro.

    Its a lesser known retest pattern, which I dont think I have outlined on this board, the elements of it are below

    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image62.png

    The last time this pattern occurred was at the all time high.
    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image63.png

    The rationale for the pattern is that if a market in an uptrend makes a fast move down, it should quickly shoot up to new highs once it reaches support. If it drops quickly, and rises slower than it dropped without making new highs, it is a sign that the momentum of the move is exhausted.

    Typically this happens at the end of the move.

  • convictscott

    w00 h00! $vix close outside the bollinger band! Its falling into line for the bears. Now if they can just not fuck it up!

  • yudhisthira

    Nice. A couple more steps to go.
    http://screencast.com/t/fZfMoSVu7

  • Tooncez

    There's also the ssi, which you pointed us to 4 months ago…
    http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment/?technicalSentiment=EUR/USD
    I've only just started looking at forex stuff, but I thought that I'd mention it.

  • convictscott

    I quite like the SSI, since it measures the behaviour of the worst traders in the world, FXCM customers.

    Thanks for pointing that out.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wow, a close through 20 – amazing!! But I am a bit concerned as it was a bank holiday – not sure if I should take this seriously. I would actually like to see another close outside to give it more weight.

  • juju2

    VXX:
    1st target 14.12
    Possible 2nd extended target 12.68
    I swore I would not do this again.
    Oh well.

  • convictscott

    OK After a good look at the charts this morning I think the evidence is clear.

    We have a POTENTIAL retracement point for this rally. Objectively the evidence is as follows.

    We opened above the previous close, A GAP UP which can represent exhaustion of buying pressure if we confirm with price below spx 1162, which we have NOT done yet. es z0 hit its old post-flash crash spike high, but spx did not, but I assign minimal weight to this.

    Market internals are painting negative divergences at new highs.
    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image65.png

    Markets can and do rise on weak internals, but when they do they leave themselves vulnerable to big drops rather than orderly retracements.

    The Euro, AUD, AUDJPY, and EURJPY are all painting the same potential sell signal. This is just a *potential* stopping point. It makes NO PREDICTIONS AT ALL about what will happen, merely an observation that IF price breaks the daily lows of eur, aud, audjpy, eurjpy…. statistically charts exhibiting this pattern have a 68% probability of painting a top. This is statistically verifiable and consistent across markets. Subjectively this pattern is also one of the most common at major turning points.

    The $vix painted the first stage of an equities sell – but as Mole said, its a bank holiday and the bots got a day off.

    OK the evidence on the bullish side. This market has been rising on shitty internals for a while, and a continuation of the slow motion melt up of the last week would be perfectly consistent with what is happening. This point is a likely good spot for bears to make their final stand. If the bears fuck it up here, drive it down, but paint a hammer candle… short covering on the failed sell will shoot it up to a point where new highs are so close they are a certainty. In that situation new highs will probably cause a gangfuck of bullishness… HITTHEBIDHITTHEBIDHITTHEBID, with things getting pretty stupid on the long side.

    Also, we have seen what is undoubtedly artificial market support at crucial points where the market has wanted to go down. Some hedge fund or funds, or bank, or fed or whatever has stood in the market at crucial 1 min candles and drawn an (expensive) line in the sand to support the market. The odds of this happening again have to lessen the odds of a successful bearish setup.

    As for the political angles people keep talking about, elections and such… Firstly not being from US I dont pretend to fully understand them, but to me once you start trading fundamentals (funny-mentals) you are in a different world, either you trade them or you dont. I dont, but I know that some of my biggest trading mistakes are when I start forming a fundamental based view about anything, modifying my systems based on this or that subjective stuff.

    My trading plan is to take a smallish (1/3 usual size) position on break of the es daily low with a stop above the daily high, with a small euro short on break of the euro low. If this works, I will top up position size on a retest of the highs. This works nicely for me because of the miniscule daily range on es z0. Even though its not a super high probability play, the massive reward if it comes off skews the risk reward balance to the favorable.

    I plan to be very alert for subsequent long signals and take them all. If I get a long signal that works, I'm holding on for grim death as I suspect it will be a great trade.

  • convictscott

    Personally I have been undone in the past by filtering signals based on part day trading, holidays, etc. As much as I'm stinky on the signal… I have rules, and rules are rules… SO what was the deal with markets today, am I right in saying banks were closed but the stock market was open?

  • convictscott

    Both gold and silver painted potential sell signals on my methods today as well, with silver making (and rejecting) a new high, while gold could not push to new highs.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Looking at ($SPX*(SLV/GLD)), it has been bulls that have fucked up repeatedly. If bulls can just not fuck up this time by staying above that pink TMA(1597) for once. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/5fda4551-b289-4586-ba5b-f64e543bf2e0/00002339.png

  • randomtrader

    i agree with your viewpoint and would also like to make note… back before the presidential elections a few months before those i vaguely remember all this “drift into elections” phrases we've been seeing here and i don't recall that happening so i agree with you 100% your either trading the charts or the fundamentals. Besides… fundamentally speaking the fact that there will be mid term elections is not a “fundamental” data point in my mind it is a political event not a number like unemployment or credit lines outstanding etc etc etc.

  • SW6

    LosGatos,

    do you always post charts of the “hard right edge” no matter what market conditions are or have you been doing that since being here because we are at a decision point in the markets for either going up 'hard' or down hard?

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    I post the hard right edge of the timeframe charts because that is “now” in each timeframe.

    I post my charts when I have the opportunity to, NOT based on any particular inflection point or decision point in the market.

    If I think we are at a change of direction then I will state so.

  • convictscott

    It certainly *is* an inflection point. I'm looking at the 5 min es chart from today, and there were clear signs of manipulation there. That v bottom, without a retest of the lows is extremely unusual, and looks like what we have seen, which is a determination at any cost to stop shorts running away with the market.

    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image67.png

  • amokta

    some attention to detail there!

  • raised_by_wolves

    What about copper? It hasn't been quite as “finicky” as silver.

  • SW6

    Roger that.

  • Eva S

    Did you guys know that Jon Stewart's brother is the COO of the NYSE? He was on 60 Minutes yesterday talking about HFT.
    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504803_162-20019067-10391709.html?tag=contentMain;contentBody

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, when I saw that “V” bottom in real time, my first thought was “emergency buy.”

  • Eva S

    “Potential” is the key word. Both gold and silver could go higher.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Leibowtiz brothers, eh?

  • Eva S

    I didn't know Stewart changed his name, but the 2 look very similar.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm probably not as evil as Larry, and I'm definitely not as funny as Jon, but I'm better looking than both of them.

  • Eva S

    I hope so! :-) I used to think Jon was cute but now his sense of humor is getting on my nerves.

  • yudhisthira

    That's quite a video.
    Going to have to type really fast to beat these guys.

  • convictscott

    Let me clarify :) To me there is no such thing as an accurate prediction. Long term bullishness in metals with an established trend is clearly the highest probabilty outcome. but right now we have a situation where a little price weakness can shake out weak hands, encouraging shorts and causing further shake out. Gold is vulnerable, nothing more and nothing less.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've only seen a few Jon Stewart shows like the Cramer interview, which was great, and the “these fucking guys” one, which was okay. Oh yeah, I also him interview Michael Burry, or was it Michael Lewis talking about Michael Burry? I can't remember anymore.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I too would like to see another close outside those BBs so $SPX/$VIX could catch up to $SPX and $NDX/$VXN could catch up to $NDX.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/8a6d3f74-7e50-4e22-99ee-927803ee275e/00002338.png

    I want everything to come together.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axb2sHpGwHQ

  • raised_by_wolves

    “I read the news today, oh boy . . .”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-Q9D4dcYng

  • Eva S

    Co-location seems like an idiotic concept that doesn't provide any real value to the market.

  • Eva S

    These are nice songs.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Bank Holiday and the major indexes end where they started; hmmm

  • raised_by_wolves

    “A Day In The Life” is even nicer when I get it stuck in my head because I always overlay it with Jimi-Hendrix-”Wind-Cries-Mary”-like warm/cold guitar tones.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf-Mtd2A1DI

  • raised_by_wolves

    Have you never heard these songs?!?

  • Eva S

    I've heard the Beatles but not Hendrix.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Then I'll introduce you. That was Jimi Hendrix playing “The Wind Cries Mary” in front of TV audience in Stockholm.

    This is Hendrix playing “Little Wing” during a concert at Royal Albert Hall. . . .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye3Ua2ZqrSE

  • Eva S

    Thanks. It is nice music and he has a pleasant voice. Did you see the Celtic version?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5rVgxmekeM&feature=related

  • 99er

    (Reuters) – All New York Stock Exchange and NYSE AMEX stocks have closed following an earlier problem that prevented closes in about 160 stocks, a NYSE spokesman said on Monday.

    All stocks have closed and the issue is under review, said Ray Pellecchia, a spokesman for the NYSE.

    Some of the stock symbols affected included New York-traded shares of London-based BP (BP.N) and China's CNOOC (CEO.N), as well as shares of Ford (F.N) and Sprint Nextel (S.N), the NYSE said in an e-mail.

  • yudhisthira

    Better check out this classic. Magic starts about 40 seconds in.

  • 99er

    Chart: ES and ZB
    Sorry, Ben. You lose.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es-zb_1036.html

  • 99er

    More Bull Shit

    A coalition of as many as 40 state attorneys general is expected Wednesday to announce an investigation into the mortgage-servicing industry, an effort some of them hope will pressure financial institutions to rewrite large numbers of troubled loans.

    The move comes amid recent allegations that mortgage-servicers, which include units of major banks such as Bank of America Corp., submitted fraudulent documents in thousands of foreclosure proceedings nationwide.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704518104575546512922974100.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

  • SW6

    in reply to all of you actually:

    I was thinking about HFT today strangely enough. I recalled a discussion from another life in my intermediate econ class. We were talking about how participants in a market be it the Suk or the stock market are constantly trying to eke out the others preference curves. Will you buy here? How about here? etc. This can be a fun process between humans but it's cold and ugly with the robots of the stock market.

    A query: could we not put an end to HFT by simply ending decimalization and going back to the days of pricing equities in eighths? Spreads would widen again but Skynet/H.A.L./M.C.P. (choose your favorite computer villain from Hollywood) would be dead and we would have healthy markets again. What do I mean by healthy? You know, humans trying to screw over their fellows with old fashioned canniness. ;-)

    I for one prefer computers that help me groove; hi Kraftwerk!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5B8VtmZN9c

  • yudhisthira

    Poor Banksters. Sniff.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I have now—not bad—but the original is a lot more emotive for me.

    Hey, have you heard Jimi Hendrix play “Red House”? Listen to both parts from a 1969 San Diego concert.

    Part 1

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGVAr2gOkhk&fmt=18

    Part 2

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzEKnC5w9WQ&fmt+18

  • 99er
  • Tooncez

    Having been called a robot by others on the forum, let me be the first to tell you that requiring bullets to be in 1/8th in calibers wouldn't make guns any less deadly.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caliber

  • AudioTactics

    Yes, on a bank holiday there are no settlements…

    And Fixed Income traders have the day off except for a few Trsy traders who have to look after the shop in case some foreigner wants to trade.

  • chronographics

    Euro 4 Hourly
    Ok further two my last two 4 hourly chart updates
    We are starting to have good potential for a top of some importance POTENTIAL but not yet confirmed. See chart below
    The Osc bears watching here, Think I have commented enough in the past on how to know when they do and don't work, so wont bore you all again. If you don't know then you should have paid attention :-) YES and I am well short ….
    Of course a Dollar Rally Euro fall has implications for the Equity Market as I have been saying for forever
    http://screencast.com/t/O8bAxcpcRy

  • raised_by_wolves

    That was intended as a compliment when I called you a machine. Remember Tank's description of Neo?

    Tank: Morning, did you sleep? You will tonight, I guarantee it. I'm Tank, I'll be your operator.
    Neo: You don't...you don't have any...
    Tank: Holes? Nope. Me and my brother, Dozer, we're both one hundred percent pure, old fashioned, home grown human, born free right here in the real world. A genuine child of Zion.
    Neo: Zion?
    Tank: If the war was over tomorrow, Zion is where the party would be.
    Neo: It's a city?
    Tank: The last human city. The only place we have left.
    Neo: Where is it?
    Tank: Deep underground, near the earth's core where it's still warm. Live long enough you might even see it. God-damn, I...I got to tell you, I'm fairly excited to see what you're capable of, if Morpheus is right and all...I'm not supposed to talk about this, but if you are...a very exciting time. We got a lot to do. We got to get to it.... Now, we're supposed to start with these operation programs first, that's a major boring shit. Let's do something more fun. How about combat training.
    Neo: Jujitsu? I'm going to learn Jujitsu?... Holy shit.
    Tank: Hey Mikey, I think he likes it. How about some more?
    Neo: Hell yes. Hell yeah.

    Morpheus: How is he?
    Tank: Ten hours straight. He's a machine.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You may want to consider shorting FAS because you win when financials goes sideways or down. If you long FAZ, you only win when financials go down.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ramp me up Scotty. :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Surely you jest?

    This kid you mention isn't worth mentioning. He's not original at all. There are innumerable Justin Biebers. When I watched a minute of “Baby” just now, it was obvious that this kid doesn't have any identity of his own. Commercial forces shape his identity. His producers produce him. So, in this sense, there are no Justin Biebers, not even one.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've never heard of this kid until last week. Now I see his name overrunning and ruining Joy Division and Nirvana comments sections. If I see that name in a Jimi Hendrix comments section, I will . . . let's not even go there. Please, Eva S., for my sanity, don't refer to him again around here.

  • raised_by_wolves

    A 16 year old punk would have my respect if he showed some talent and creativity, evinced some emotional depth and breadth of experience (having experience personal suffering or being a keen observer of others who had), and developed his own identity as an artist apart from if not against commercialism.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3dU0mxEW7M




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