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Last Line Of Defense
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Last Line Of Defense

by The MoleJune 24, 2013

In the spirit of the not so uncommon brinksmanship often observed when trading equities the last line of defense apparently incurred sufficient buying interest. The chart of the day is none other than my intrepid Zero chart where a Mole reversa signal painted the very low tick of the day (thus far):

And I ask you – does it get much better than this? If you weren’t a Zero subscriber today then I’m probably spending your money on my favorite stripper tonight. Aaaah… simple pleasures…

The second most important chart for us rats today is the weekly panel which I pushed into your faces before the NYSE open today. Thus far the 25-hour appears to be acting as it should – the bulls’ last line of defense. 1565 really was the magic marker and a trip below 1550 would have probably sealed the deal for the grizzlies. For now it’s holding up but the bulls aren’t out of the woodworks just yet.

For one today’s sell off, which has now completely tapered out, looked engineered – another reason why I was looking for a dip buy signal (thank you mighty Zero). And all of a sudden the buyers are going gangbusters – it may be an attempt to engineer a squeeze. However, with all the technical damage incurred it may also be an attempt to buy back at the lows and then see what happens. Whatever it is – be careful and unless you grabbed it at the lows don’t chase this one up.

It’s all about the Euro versus the Dollar though really – Fed versus ECB printing so to say. And the Bernank continues to outprint Draghi by far. Which why it was pretty predictable that this 100-day SMA would hold up. Now if the Euro can climb back above those two weekly SMAs then it should be good to go higher. IF NOT and it falls below then watch out below – first stop would be that NLSL at 1.29547.

Now let’s look at some juicy new setups – please step into my lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Where did everyone go? :-/

  • newbfxtrader

    paying their hookers? I am sure Sky’s made enough!

  • AmazingLarry

    No charts, no trades for me today. Been without power since Fri. Phone slow as ass on 3G. A forced vacation if you will.

    Just from memory, looks like the SPX did bounce off the 2007 top?

  • Thunder44

    I Got my Block of long SPY just .25 cents off the low.

  • Pervergence

    Checking on Snowden….

  • amokta

    Looks like the Good Ship HMS Spx is taking on water, but a starboard turn toward 1600 is possible still

  • amokta

    Rats are abandoning ship? Hmmm. Looks like dip into close

  • amokta

    I knew the flight to Havana was a diversion!

  • Pervergence

    I wouldn’t go to Ecuador…too close to the US…Iceland

  • gsavli

    today’s close was not telling anything (at least to me). overall, it looks like sellers are gone for now and bottom can be formed. in a messy process, of course, just the way we like it. if sellers return though, watch out below.

  • SS_JJ

    to the strippers 😉

  • amokta

    Agree. Need more price action to see how things pan out

  • BobbyLow

    Pretty decent day today. Took some shorts off the table and now back to Delta Positive. The Close could have been a little stronger but was still 13 Points above the Today’s Low.

    Who knows what Evil lurks overnight? However, we’ll find out in due time. :)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Now back to VIX Step 1.

    This is getting comical
    VIX can get to 40, going like this

    A/D looks like immediate bottom, but also can get flash-crushy in a hurry

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Real-life Jack Ryan…lol

  • convictscott

    Mole, skype me before you go to bed :)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I always suspected he reads him bedtime stories…

  • convictscott

    HA! We are pushing very very hard on crazy.ivan to get it ready for the beta launch. It is kind of problematic because he goes to bed when I wake up and vice versa.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Thats the problems with antipodes – you are all upside down…lol

  • convictscott

    Europe is way better time wise for trading, but the quality of life in Australia is the best in the world, hands down and no second place.

    This is my house in Brisbane which I sold last year http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRrZtybD4RA

    This is the house I lived in before that in Sunshine beach

    http://www.rwnoosaholidays.com.au/noosa_accommodation_view.asp?holidayID=244

  • Th3_Acist

    Unbelievable properties…and I think I just figured out who you are lol.

  • Th3_Acist

    ThinkorSwim daily candles on 6/24 broke for anybody else?

  • beentohardknocksU

    There’s stuff going on behind the scenes here which makes me very, very suspicious that we don’t know half of what is really going on. I hear Mole re Draghi vs Bernanke printing presses, and I am inclined to the view that the US Treasury cannot lightly face the prospect of paying another 100 basis points on $14T of debt (or at least the portions of it rolling over in the coming months) without trying another go at priming the pump and printing to prosperity. That is an old story which I have of course passed over very tongue in cheek. What I am trying to figure out – and I thought some of our bright lights on this Board may have a clue – is how the Yen/Abenomics story fits in. I have been hearing for a while that there is no way China was going to lay back and let Japan devalue the Yen (and thus its ability to import from China, etc) without fighting back. Is this Shibor crisis the first missile across Tokyo’s bow?

    Of course as I try not to overthink this, I hear Mole saying “don’t worry about the macro stuff, just trade the tape you see”. While I know that is sound advice re trading, one still does need to consider what one does with principal of which trading capital is only a prudent fraction.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    FYI – spoos failed at the 25-hour again today.

    Alright, I’m turning into a pumpkin – see you guys tomorrow.

  • newbfxtrader

    Show off!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s what I like about him – he’s a regular working class guy who lives very humbly.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If you got it – flaunt it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My real estate requirements are a lot more affordable…

  • SS_JJ

    Now that I have seen yours, I want to see Tim Knight’s own. 😉

  • convictscott

    HA!

  • Skynard

    Nice!!!

  • bullregard

    European taste, sprawling american space. Love it.

  • amokta

    Liked the beach property!

  • amokta

    More importantly, a few months ago, i could buy a banana 5-pack for 1GBP, but now they are selling a 4-pack for GBP1.29

    I feel like I’m living in Zimbabwe

  • bullregard

    Yeah… both amazing…

  • convictscott

    There are two important questions arising from this. Question 1) “if I knew what was going on macro wise would that help my trading results?” Question 2) “Why is it that I want to know?” In other words is there some part of me which is uncomfortable with uncertainty?

    If I really thought I could improve my edge even by a little with fundamentals (funny-mentals) I would be enrolled in an economics degree right now. There is an easy way to check. Pick one stellar, world class economist/macro advisor with a >50 million dollar net worth. Get a list of all their published advice over the last 5 years and work out what % of the time they are right, and how much the payoff is when they are.

    You will see that markets NEVER get much better than 60:40 (except in super small timeframes) and the “best in the world” guys are basically a tiny bit better at making calls than anyone else. Edges in markets are very small since you are competing in a deathmatch with some of the smartest people in the world.

  • convictscott

    Yeah my 5 year plan is to move back to that same beach, which I think is the nicest beach in the world.

  • convictscott

    I didn’t get mine from trading – the wages of sin in my old life were…..adequate 😉

  • convictscott

    Considering the crappiest house where Tim lives is worth double either of those properties… Tim wins no argument

  • Skynard

    The following chart depicts a failed div. I’ve found that moves of a powerful nature tend to happen after this failure, failed move has acquired a shit load of shorts now.

  • Skynard

    /NG sitting at daily NLSL currently.

  • convictscott

    Thats a MUCH better way to trade divergences! Kudos!!!! I’m gonna steal that

  • Skynard

    Stacked up long, that along with a very extreme hourly div which has been successful thus far:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Are we there yet?!

  • Skynard

    Think so, hold on!:)

  • Skynard

    Similar example of a failed div followed by a squeeze.

  • Skynard

    Push the button now:)

  • Skynard

    Good spot

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Great sport, great series, great (original 6) teams. Congrats on your Eastern Conference title. Maybe we will see you next year!

    After that last second debacle (from your perspective) I don’t have the heart to talk any smack. I’m gonna stop stalking you (will you miss me?) now. Hope you know was all in fun… at least you were prepared with your hanky! Sorry couldn’t help myself…..

  • Darkthirty

    It’s quite amusing to watch these no volume overnight ramps where they try to make it look as if there was some sort of trading occurring.

  • AmazingLarry

    Second time is a charm.

    Was really hoping for another OT and a game 7. Boston played some awesome hockey.

  • Skynard

    Taking partial profit /SB, look at that bitch go. Think we get a hard reversal.

  • Skynard

    Allot of USD eco data today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

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  • Th3_Acist

    It didn’t hurt too bad, Shaw earned it that’s for sure and it was a great game and series! congrats