Calling It A Week
I don’t have much to add to the charts and setups I posted earlier this week. Our VIX buy signal seems to be resolving (as it usually does), and after today’s little pop higher the E-Mini is now trading a mere 75 handles below its all time high of 1586.75. The way we’re going (and the Fed is printing) we may just be painting new highs before the onset of spring.
A rather profitable trade on soybeans earlier this morning – it didn’t really look all that exciting until it suddenly dropped below its 100-hour SMA and really picked up steam from there. I’m taking profits now as there’s a daily NLSL which ought to put up some resistance.
GBP/NZD – that’s a pretty exotic one but I like that 25-day SMA touch, it’s the first time after a pretty nasty sell-off. Great inflection point in my book, in particular as there’s a NLBL in the way as well.
EUR/USD just about to drop through its 25-day SMA. I’ll be following the 25-hour downwards with a stop above. Pretty simple setup – I think the odds of a bounce are 50/50 as we have seen false breaches before. Call me skeptical but given that the Fed monetary base continues to expand while the ECB’s balance sheet is in the process of shrinking this ought to be a momentary fluke.
As much as I would love to see a drop in the EUR/USD – I’ll remain very nimble here until I see the greenback pick up some pace and take out some long term resistance. We are currently back below the 100-week SMA as well as below both SMAs on the monthly panel. That’s surprising and most likely there will be a response shortly. A drop through that weekly NLSL next week would change my outlook to more Dollar bullish.
Enjoy your weekend everyone – I’ll see you all Sunday.