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Friday Morning Briefing

Friday Morning Briefing

by The MoleFebruary 8, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

It’s Friday and I’m in a good mood, so let’s make this one a freebie – leeches everywhere rejoice! As a side note: as you can see I’m increasingly starting to post NinjaTrader charts now due to ongoing data and support problems with ThinkOrSwim.

The E-Mini is dancing the 25-hour samba and I’m long here with a stop below that NLSL at 1503.75. Below that 100-hour I’d be short. Obviously this may happen via a fast candle (see prior occurrences) – if so then don’t try to chase it.

The DX now wedged between its 25-hour and an hourly NLBL – great inflection point and I recommend you use it.

AUD/CAD at 100-hour resistance. Short here but willing to flip if she advances above the SMA.

CAD/JPY approaching lower 100-hour Bollinger – may be worth a speculative long if we start seeing slower candles and/or signs of a floor.

Ditto on USD/JPY.

EUR/CAD at lower Bollinger and hourly NLSL – good spot in anticipation of a decisive move. Keep your exposure small – I’m seeing a lot of churn/jump on the currency side, if you’re not nimble you’ll get trapped in a losing trade. Also, watch your leverage – I recommend a maximum of 5:1 (meaning don’t be leveraged > 5 x your total assets). I will soon post a pertinent article as a lot of fledgling FX traders don’t differentiate between margin and leverage.

EUR/USD – right now I’m only interested in the short side here, assuming we get a NLSL breach (actually it would be a double breach, right?).

NZD/USD – nice diagonal that has developed here since yesterday. Matured enough to use it as a trampoline – short of course if it breaks under the weight.

Crude – short as long as she stays below the 25-hour. Long only on breach of 100-hour.

Natgas is up to no good as usual. Slowly approaching the 25-hour and I’d be short below the NLSL and long if it ignores the 25-hour and advances higher.

Silver at the 25-hour – my inflection point. I’d prefer the downside here as the 100-hour looms above, but would take either breach.

Bonds – the 10-year is nibbling at its hourly NLBL which will be good for a few more hours. Short only if she drops below the 25-hour.

Finally soybeans, also at the tail end of its hourly NLBL – long here if she advances higher. Short if we get a drop below the 100-hour.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Darth_Gerb
  • Darth_Gerb

    /ES 1512, I don’t even want to know why it popped.
    I just pulled up my bollinger bands to see if it’s extraordinary.

  • sachsich

    Lets see how it behaves

  • Darth_Gerb

    1514, yeah.
    i’m no fool.  haven’t forgotten the VIX buy signal.

  • BobbyLow

    Good morning folks.

    As Mister Rogers would say “It’s a “beautiful day in this neighborhood”.   


    FWIW, I Flipped USD/CHF from Long to Short this morning and will flip back if necessary, still Short EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, and AUD/JPY.   Also Long GBP/USD. 

    Got hit for a small loss on Short EUR/CAD during the 8 AM Candle.  That thing has been a Bitch for me lately and I’m thinking about taking it out of my repertoire.  🙂

    Last but not least, I’m Still Short Oil.  

  • Joe_Jones

    FX says pain is on its way

  • Exar Kun

    Hi, need help with a query on the netlines for zerofx 5m. I have been using only the trendlines so far, and have difficult understanding the netlines. Accordingly, going below orange netline is to go short and above green netline is to go long. Is is correct? Can it also work by going below green is to go short and holding support above orange is to go long? Any dudes tried those two methods? Tks!

    Sigh… been researching and analysing info. on these lines online until i missed Mole’s ES trade… :O

  • ridingwaves

    ROSG in play, in at 5.02

  • Skynard

    There is the squeeze on /SB:)

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Darth_Gerb


  • Skynard

    Hehe, got on that /NG train again. To the dungeon:)

  • Skynard

    Agree, way outside the BB, Trying another short /ES:) With a nice doji on the hourly.

  • Darth_Gerb

    yeah, I hear it’s the yearly Bath Night.

  • Darth_Gerb

    it could hang up here for a while, you must be a patient bot.
    then again, you have far greater tools and experience, than I.

    there’s only been 15 post (comments) over a third from me, and the Market has been open 2 hours.
    it’s an *Omen*.

  • Joe_Jones

    meanwhile, Bucky refuses to die.. 😉

  • Darth_Gerb

    yes.  glad you mentioned that.
    looking at the 5 year UUP.

    21.80 has been one bad assed MoFO.

  • Skynard


  • Joe_Jones

    bear flag on HL and bounce target reached at 25 d sma

  • badflightrisk

    TVIX volume has exploded since December
    To many looking for a top?

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Good entry here on /SB with a fake out sell followed by a short squeeze. Think it can finally run and tested 18 level. Empty BUS:)

  • badflightrisk

    ZNGA’s on fire

  • Skynard

    Interesting that the Yen seems to be holding it’s gains here.

  • Darth_Gerb

    it’s a start, but i’m a bit skeptical
    RSI above 30, woohoo.$XJY&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p24205234430

  • BobbyLow

    I understand your skepticism but I’m not so sure that RSI makes a whole lot of difference with Currencies/Currency Pairs as they can stay Overbought/Oversold for such a “Muy Grande” time.  🙂

  • Darth_Gerb

    (Gerb wads up the RSI and throws it in the trash)
    well, how about the weekly MACD histogram?

    in the name of Evil, are all of these tools worthless!?
    feels like I’m strolling the isles of Harbor freight!
    Ack!!! gag *cough*

  • badflightrisk

    How about a T on XLF
    It needs to take a bullet if the markets are going to bleed
    A 19 PO looms above

  • i Bergamot

     RSI is one of the best oscillators there is, IMHO.
    I use RSI, STO and MACD (or PPO) all the time, except during run-away trend. Oscillators don’t “oscillate” when market is moving in one direction, but they will be the best tools at trend change and sideways market.
    Also, why use 14 period? I use 10, or shorter.
    Here is my version of your chart – makes life little easier and reduces trash removal bills 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t think they are worthless DG and all the available tools work – (eventually).   I suppose it all depends on an individual’s time frame.  But when something like RSI goes into Overbought/Oversold territory it can stay they for a long time.   (I remember when 20 was the over and under)  also the ViX +- 20 was also the number to pay attention to as well.  

    I use an MACD but I plug in a faster 3,10,16 that I stole from Linda Raschke and not the conventional 12,26,9.  

    Again it depends on your Time Frame.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yep short term has taken out today’s Buy Lines and pierced the 25 ma
    Longer term there are DeMark Countdowns that have completed on the 2 day 3 day and weekly. Now we have a double bottom on the Daily. Long at 18.18

  • simonn1080

    for the bulls or bears?

  • Skynard

    Nice! It looks good. Thanks for your input:)

  • Darth_Gerb

    hard to put a T in something trending.
    look at that.

    it looks familiar to AUD/JPY.

  • Skynard

    Coincidence maybe, check out /KC. Need coffee with that sugar:)

  • AmazingLarry

    Even the sun shines on a dog’s ass some days. The hourly NLBL on a reload worked beautifully for me. All thanks to ES, of course. 

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

  • AmazingLarry

    Looks like AAPL will close the gap. If I keep banking coin, I might have enough beer money for this weekend. And by beer, I mean bourbon. 

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    That’s some good booze!  Have you tried Bookers? I found that to be excellent but sometimes inconsistent – such are the whims of the single barrel. For Roses 2012 (both the limited small batch and single barrel) is off the charts good if you can find it. A few more good trades and you can get some 23 Pappy–cheers!