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Maginot Line
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Maginot Line

by The MoleFebruary 19, 2010

I keep saying the same thing over and over and over again – which of course is that the news do not matter. Case in point: After yesterday’s discount window affair and the obligatory consolidated mental masturbation that ensued futures quietly melted up and took the bears for yet another tailspin. The market is a cruel mistress – especially for the long term memory impaired.

A quick look at the trading map going into the weekend:

This tape reminds me of what happened past July. Which is that everyone was expecting a drop while the market kept chugging up and up and up. I have deployed some panzer divisions at 1,115 but am unsure if I can stave off the onslaught of the bulls as they were supplied by Bernanke with genetically engineered sharks donning laser canons strapped to their heads.

But seriously now – 1,120ish is where the bears should start getting very nervous. I’m not talking just about price but also about wave form. As gmak was yanking my chain this morning about the fact that wave counts often mutate more often than a cockroach in Chernobyl (and he’s right) – there are hard rules but then there are also soft rules. The hard rule is that we can’t breach the prior high (1,150.45) – but then there are also soft rules in that a second wave really should not start looking like a textbook motive wave either. Yes, you could count it as an a-b-c but if you give this chart to the average six years old and ask him/her if this wave resembles a zigzag or a lighting bolt the damn rascal will most likely pick the lighting bolt eight out of ten times (besides, lighting bolts are so much cooler).

Mr. VIX continues to drop but its 2.0 MA has now exceeded the 20 day time window and is also starting to drop as well. So we could see a situation in which price is sliding down the lower BB border without breaching it. Not a pretty prospect for the bears. I think the best thing that could happen to the bears right now is a money shot into the 19 mark – as strange as that sounds. Sometimes things need to push hard the opposite way in order to turn the boat in the other direction.

If you sit back for a moment and forget all about your own trades and your own biases then it’s quite clear that the bulls are riding this thing up fairly easily. The bears have faced nothing but frustration since early this month and the tape ‘feels’ like just what we had to endure all last year – which was easy pickings for anyone on the long side. So, if you’re holding long term puts – prepare yourself for the potential of new highs – which is the very reason I loaded up on December and not June or July. Of course the March puts I got last Friday have been taking it up the rectum – looking very ugly – LOL 🙂 But that’s how it goes – you can’t win ’em all – don’t even try. What’s most important is that we keep a cool head and see the tape for what it is – not what we want it to be.

All that said – let’s see what happens on Monday. If there’s more follow through the P3 scenario might be on the chopping block for good (not technically but realistically). OR we might finally start following the Euro futures by dropping fast and hard – quite often things look darkest just before the dawn. That’s a bit philosophical, I admit, but there is a grain of truth in that as market makers seem to be very good at finding exactly that point at which you are willing to give up – and then to promptly reverse the tape the day after. Which of course doesn’t give you a license to be stupid as the most stubborn traders usually wind up losing.

I know where I’ll pull the cord and that mark is not here just yet – but I’m also not going to hold my puts into new annual highs – that’s for sure.

Cheers,

Mole

UPDATE 1:42pm EDT: This was just sent to me by a good friend – read it and then laugh at the bulltards chasing this tape 🙂


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Agree with you 1118 is what I have as next resistance too. I think we might push it to 1118 today or on Monday before any further pull back.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I hope we do as I want to see us outside that 2.0 BB on the VIX.

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX is on the cusp of sub-20. Every time it's come down to that line during this rally, it has been probed below for at least a few days. I see no reason to think VIX will stiffen this time around.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    I also see Dollar to retest the 80.50 area before it resumes the rally. Which should play out with the VIX 2.0 BB chart you posted.

    Amen to that brother.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Talk is cheap and so are these stocks.

    I talked about the stocks like food, corn, sugar, water etc here are the chart for you to look at and reason to hold them for long term.

    http://www.tradingsign.com/?p=532

  • http://www.bigmovingstock.com bigmovingstock

    This guy has a nice chart of MOO – looks like a backtest of a breakdown http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/02/moo-m

  • Schwerepunkt

    Friday afternoon; it's really slowed down. Squaring positions later though on OpEx day, could be instructive.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Let's hope this post has the same effect as the ones TK tags 'defeat'… he's been quite good at calling tops with those.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Nice synopsis..definitely bulls are charging ahead..and bears are despondent.. I like the “darkest before dawn” reference. Still maybe those “few” points to the upside is all the bears need to tire out the bulls….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure if you read my post properly – I am still short and have even held my March puts (to my demise).

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro pushing up against R1 (1.3595) and DMH (1.3591). Nearly closed the gap from yesterday's regular equity market close. Not sure if it will go any higher, seems extended.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yeah it's ok – I haven't started the Friday drinking yet. Tone was fairly downbeat though, you must admit.

    I could start banging on about very promising short-term ES and NQ wave counts and fibs and that at this point, but it would only tempt gmak to get out his 5-iron again!

  • denali92

    This does feel EXACTLY like July…. Only slight difference is that Opex day lulled the Bears in to complacency as we sold off that day before rocketing the next week – one other difference is that Opex day was only 5 days in to the move and this is slightly longer in the tooth, as you can see it as a solid ten days old from the lows or 6 days old from our take off point last Thursday. A pullback is due to correct the hourlies, but may it never comes until we are at 1140.

    Bummer!

  • boldventure

    Mole, thanks for the update.

    1110 may hold here…need the direction to change soon like you said. Who knows most every Monday has been up, maybe this one could finally be different. The market will tell us soon enough.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if it breaks 1108,3 spx there is a nice short to 1103 and if beyond 1102 then 1077

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    short setup to 1102,5 seems confirmed

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So 'Mole's Panzer Divisions' and 'Sharks with Laser Cannons strapped to their heads' now counts as downbeat?

    Guys – I'm getting really tired of all the mental masturbations here. How about you post a few charts on your own as the constant jawboning here does not do anything do improve my profitability. I would love to see a few inspiring charts for a change.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Molecool,

    I posted the charts of the stocks I am long and will hold them for long term.

  • OldChicago

    the SPX hourly chart from Feb 5 low looks like the daily chart from the low of Nov, 09.

  • momac

    Thanks for the updates
    It's articles like this that have had me shorting the market. I read alot of different blogs and there are stories similar to this all over the country. That one I posted a link to last nite from the Rolling Stone about GS and AIG just makes my blood boil. But it all just doesn't seem to matter to the market

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle
  • lilme

    The statistics on the effects of rate increase (history):

    http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-effect-of-f

  • momac

    the cpce has jumped up to 84. It's getting farther away from 55, that's not good. 🙁

  • roncofooddehydrator

    When mole says jump, I jump. Here's the 2hr chart of FAS, with 5, 30, 60 and 200 EMA. The pink lines are +/- 10% from the 30 EMA.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/jbreedlove/

    You can see we're right at the 200 EMA, we either bust through and the target should be the +10% line, or we drop.

    If we drop, short term I would only aim for the 30/60 EMA (they're about the same place). We may just be setting up for oscillation between that area and the 200 before a breakout in either direction. If we break below the 30/60, then it's watch out below again.

  • OldChicago

    Not sure if any of you followed WSJ money flow. At 2pm EST, we are down a whopping -4B. A typical day is +-200-500M. The max range is +-6B.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if this doesn't drop it's 1111 EOD

    I'm leaving

  • Persian_Gerb

    bye.

    I'm a little nervous about the maginot & panzer naming conventions.
    The french were defeated ya know. why they never took Portugal/Spain is beyond me.
    😉

  • string01

    Pansy Division? Wasn't that a band?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Chill, Winston.

    Hmm… charts, hey? Let me see now… I just knoooooooow you're gonna love this

    http://content.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/f

    And if that's to small-scale for ya, try these 🙂

    http://content.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/f
    http://content.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/f

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dude, you didn't ask 'how high'. What's wrong with you?? 😉

  • Persian_Gerb

    🙂

  • alexdg

    Exciting day, last 4 hours have been in a 3 point trading range… 1108-1111. Enormous volume… seems like when Tiger Woods was on TV alot volume went even lower… leaving the algos trading alone and moving the market up to the 1109 region.

  • Persian_Gerb

    my stochastics (short & intermmediate) are screaming for a drop any minute now.
    any minute. yeah…now…er now…er. (dam)

  • rikardo_kurvio

    naz100 fut is about to climb to 62% area. closing above is not welcome for the short side
    going to load some shorts at the close if it fails

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I'm half white and half Asian, so I've got limited ups. Better to just jump and hope nobody asks about the height 🙂

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I'm half white and half Asian, so I've got limited ups. Better to just jump and hope nobody asks about the height 🙂

  • Persian_Gerb

    so how to you feel about 50% fib retracements?
    ;-D

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro still going up, ES going down. Currency action suggests the selling will be limited and we've got mutual fund Monday coming.

  • Scoops

    Just got back from the gym, and nearly spit out my Myoplex shake at that red volume bar.

  • gatopeich

    Thanks for the update Mole, believe it or not I think I am learning something here, and as I said before, it is not necessarily about money.

    I would like to know about your stance with March puts, cause that's what I am holding since yesterday.

  • alexdg

    By George you've got it! 1106…

  • gatopeich

    Eh eh, I just got back from karate, ready for more bear-pain… Bring it on, ball-less bullies!

  • Persian_Gerb

    holy cow, i thought you were kidding, then I looked. (1107 currently)
    maybe my earlier day 1104 forecast will come true.

  • gatopeich

    Very interesting. How do you interpret those up/down ratios? They seem to be generally below 1.0, is that more volume down than up?

  • centerline

    Thanks Mole. As we speak, looks like we are starting to give it up a little. We shall see what gives. Can't image too many bulls feel really good about holding from here after a pretty decent bounce off the 61.8 fib today (give or take), potential wave 2 top, and Mr. VIX just begging for someone to push him just a little further. Thinking more EVIL, would suggest TPTB park this perfurmed piggie right on the numbers – about flat, and VIX inside the lower BB by a hair (a red one… thinner). Keep the masses from panic – and also from getting in or out comfortably.

  • PRSGuitars

    NQ retested its 133… and fell?

    http://screencast.com/t/MzFjMTIzMT

    Shorts ahoy (tight stops).

  • gatopeich

    This one is easy, leave it to me: H&S on the 5-min ES? (Been trying to make a drawing but I lack the tools)

    But now it just looks like a sequence of lower highs… Ah, the last charge of the bulls!

  • gatopeich

    Now it looks more like the Gartley thingy (wishful thinking :-).

  • alexdg

    Well, it was worth a shot…put on the bullet proof vest for the closing bell. Seems like people wanna go long for the weekend.

  • Schwerepunkt

    SEC to vote on short sale rule february 24th. They're still talking about that crap.

  • PRSGuitars

    This is deceased equine abuse. Do people short anymore? I thought that was just in 2008?

  • gatopeich

    Not sure about the reference… Several movies appear quoting it in (a friend of mine's) quote search engine: http://www.subzin.com/s/darkest%20before%20dawn

  • Schwerepunkt

    Precious few shorts left.

  • gatopeich

    People? Where?

  • gatopeich

    People? Where?

  • gatopeich

    Don't know about 'people' but 'something' here has explicit orders to end the day in green.

  • Persian_Gerb

    some whipsaw action in the last 30 minutes.
    my condolences. I learned to avoid bullets and such, expiry day.
    very lucrative, very risky.

  • rikardo_kurvio

    daily shitigroup chart and chance for significant retrace

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MmVhNTdlM

  • alexdg

    So true, must check out the volume for today… jpm_bot vs gs_bot.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    FAS 2hr 200 EMA was defended, I'm short via FAZ over the weekend. I can see us dropping on Monday or gapping up over resistance and heading to the moon.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Sunday night should be interesting with the SSE trading again after the New Year's week holiday. After it closed, they announced new restrictions on bank capital and we had the discount rate hike here. Could be touch-and-go in Shanghai.

  • funkypenguin

    Ooops, fire whomever was in charge of keeping NDX green – Nasdaq 100 eeked out a loss. At this point LMAO at this ridiculousness (I guess easier to laugh too because I went long ES in the middle of the night and rode it up for a decent gain)

  • alexdg

    “gapping up over resistance and heading to the moon.”<– as in what has been happening for the last 11 months?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Man bulldozes own home for great justice
    http://www.wlwt.com/news/22600154/detail.html

  • http://spychart.net spycharter

    It took SPY over a month to break through 111.7 the last time we reached it in October-November. So it should act as strong resistance. I at least expect a small pullback or sideways trading for a few days. I think SPY 110-110.4 will hold though and that we'll head all the way back up to SPY 114.3 to fill the gap left there when our latest correction began. It's hard to lose when the US govt has your back

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, I want to show you some monthly charts.

    First, $INDU where you will notice that the bulls have tried and failed to close above the dotted red 104 MA four months in a row while bears have failed to close below the lower yellow 52,0.618 Rat Band.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Second, $OEX:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Third, $SPX:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Fourth, $TRAN:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • OldChicago

    If a ratio is below 1, it means that sellers is willing to give up shares at lower price, thus created negative money flow. This could also mean that vol. comes in on the down trend.

    It's hard to make sense the trend/direction from this money flow. But, when it is at extreme, e.g. >+- 1.0B, I paid attention. When this happen at the top of a trend, it could means that big money is unloading. WSJ won't tell me how they calculate these.

  • PRSGuitars

    Cincinnati pride!!

  • fa_q

    Well 1112 got hit on SPX and I got some shitty fills of 1100 and 1829 because I wasn't in front of my screens. I thought there was a chance of an OpEx miracle but I'm still shocked. Not very pleased about it because I think one more minor should come early next week before we move down to 1050ish. So I'm fully short at 1098 and 1809.5. Come what may.

  • raised_by_wolves

    This is an $SPX yearly chart with 8, 16, 32 MAs, EMAs, and BBs:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Bull markets develop above the dotted blue squiggles and then ride the upper BBs.

  • amokta

    Please all relax, sit in your comfy armchair and put you slippers on, and go 999.99% short, for EWI STU has spoken – “A second-wave rally is in its very latter stages. Once this push is complete, the next strong phase of selling pressure will begin.”
    apparently 1115-1116 spx is the new Line-of-Defence

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Now there's a trend I can get behind.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    March puts would have to start dropping hard next week otherwise it's a losing battle. Of course it all depends on how far you're OTM.

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    Maginot Line, non sequitur.
    LONG APOL,WCG–in this kind of a market, BUY the DIPS!
    PPT, covering all 4 bases. HAIL Mary touchdowns on every pass play.

  • skynard

    Zstock,

    Did you play those APOL 50 calls?

  • string01

    One of these days Hochberg will get the count – I noticed he's not event trying any more.
    “Next week should mark the end of wave 2 up from the February 5 low for the Dow and S&P. The main question for us is do stocks hold up through the week, or do they turn down sooner?”
    No shit sherlock. Gems like this are worth the prx of admission.

  • string01

    Uptick rule ? That is all we get anyway. So fucking what?

  • amokta

    I subscribe really for educational purposes,plus their general commentray and charts. I suppose if the 17th jan top holds then perhaps alls wells that ends well, but they cant keep calling tops and being steam rollered, as they loose credibility, even though technically primary 2 could retrace all the way back to 07/08 top on elliott analysis

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and there were spanish plans for an invasion of portugal in case of (and were also considered preentively) a british attempt

  • redvetttes

    Just in time for the 175 bil fed act, 2 ,5,7 and 30,GS will push the dollar ,hammer copper and drive rates lower for his buddy ben

  • boldventure

    Well I guess my prediction for where the short term up direction of this market was going to go last weekend was correct. Stated that it would go as high as 1110 within the next 5 days and it did it in 4. Closed today at 1109 and change after hitting 1111 and coming back…. Since that was the first prediction with a hard number I've posted on here and it was correct (at least for now), maybe my first prediction was just a lucky guess. Could be, but there was solid logic behind it as I stated with my post when I made it. As far as I'm concerned that was the hard part (predicting the upside that was still possible to come). The easy part was predicting what will happen the next 7-10 days. (if you read the post you already know) Like I stated previously, if this is going to be anything other than a correction this will turn back now and not go higher from here. If it does than we are back in a bull uptrend market and if you can only be short you better take your ball and go home. Either that or have deep pockets for the sideways or bull market that is to follow. We will see, and the market will soon tell us. Good Luck!

  • yudhisthira

    SPX chart for next week. Ready for anything.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/MWJjNDlj

  • string01

    Dear GOD please tell me you are colorblind.

  • Macrawn

    Mole might be one of the few bears left with a Panzer division. Most everyone else is moving around tank models on their battle maps representing divisions that no longer exist or are comprised of 12 year olds and senior citizens.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't underestimate the maulwurfjugend divisions, they'll fight to the last boy (unless mole kills them himself for mindless chatting)

  • gregn

    Don't know if anyone gave this chart, but I think today was a good day to go short. SPX closed a little below 50 day moving average and the ceiling of November-December range. http://screencast.com/t/NTgyMmM4Y

    Of course this doesn't mean that we drop, but it is a high probability.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    he might be indian….so that could be art

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Greg, who needs probabilities when they have QE?

    1060 was a greedy short, 1080 was a nice short, 1100 was last limit short, this is deja vu all over again, they break 1025 I get the champagne and do the lemming on long till the new top

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don't tempt me, Obermaulwurfsfuehrer.

  • AudioTactics

    saffron overload…

  • string01
  • gatopeich

    I see. OTM? I just need a 9% drop to be ITM man!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    there is no other fuhrer but THE Maulwurf and I am but HIS tiny voice announcing HIS coming in the wildernes

    So a simple Oberstabsfeldwebel should do (or did you mean a full Oberst?)

    p.s. It was Mac's fault, he started
    p.p.s. he down's have a point (might have to start sleeping a bit more, this joke doesn't sound too good)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Ein Blog, ein hamster, ein Führer

  • kanur
  • FranceHasTheBomb

    I'm fine with it if they also enforce a down tick rule to prevent irrational exuberance (i.e. bubbles) in the equity markets.

    Edit: After all, the major problems we have faced are caused by bubbles and the aftermath of them being popped.

  • skynard

    The negative side of the picture is that volume accompanying the breakout and subsequent advance only has been averaging about 85% of the 250-EMA of daily volume. Looks more like a bull trap to me. Buyers beware!

  • Persian_Gerb

    A little panzer history for the weekend curious (trader).
    http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWpanzer.htm

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I felt compelled to start 2 or 3 un-PC comments, but starting to wonder what will happen when everyone wakes up….

  • Lordted

    There are gaps at 116.5 and 127.4 on SPX….. 127.4 is above Moles Maginot Line. And you know what happened to that – the bad guys went round it. Crafty buggers.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    here comes drunk Russian on T34 to kick Panther's ass

  • Blind_Squirrel
  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    I'm buying the dips on**
    Long APOL chart, Long WCG short APC. I like to short stocks (APC) when their p/e gets too ridiculous. I'm looking for a $4 pullback on APC.

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    I'm asking myself, ” is the market adding in the 13% average beat the street earnings reports, that came down the pike, the last 3 weeks or so?”
    If so, 10,700 is getting blasted out!

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    I think your target price, don't go high enough!

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    Yes, those contracts are me and my members—
    We're the only ones that play deep in the money strikes, (delta 85-100), on a lot of my picks.
    We control the entire call volume on WCG.

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    When a delta 85-100 call strike has zero volume, and let's say you buy 10 contracts. You are now playing against the option HOUSE. The owners. Let's say your stock goes up $3.
    The Owners will pay you $3,000–YOU BEAT THE HOUSE, my man.
    I imagine there's at least a Billion in liquidity, on each option strike.

  • gatopeich

    Interesting, any mentions of this 'error' are on 'alternative' news sites: http://www.google.com/search?q=CPI+incorrect+nu
    I tried using other terms and combinations, with no results.

  • gatopeich

    Yeah, that's why they use big spreads, no? As I see it you are paying the whole spread amount the very moment that you buy. That's 'THE RAKE FOR THE HOUSE'.
    You can beat the house, but the house has chip advantage, among others.

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    The house wanted the first 1.5% up front. When I go to sell, I might be able to get that 1.5% back, on the sale. at least 1%.
    Therefore zero volume, will never matter. So far VIX is the only option i have found, that plays dirty! out of 11,000 hours experience.

  • Scoops

    Crosspost:

    Mole, what is your take on this very interesting outlook that basically changes the start of the Grand Supercycle to the start of the early 18th century and not the Declaration of Independance. This outlook ofcourse greatly changes the wave outlook. He makes some very good points and backs it up with concise arguments. This ofcourse would mean that GSC completed in 1929 and the decline we are in atm would be far less than mainstream EWT suggests.

    http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/Blog/cns!D2CB8

    Here is their research from last week.

    http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D2CB8

    Here's some tidbits”
    We suggested, based upon an economic cycle in the emerging US economy, that the GSC began early in the 18th century and not with the official Declaration of Independence in 1776. Under this scenario, the US would have experienced five Supercycles (SC) between 1700 and 1929. The two SC peaks, SC1 1770 and SC3 1857, were followed by two major local wars, the American revolution and the American civil war. In each instance the economy contracted about 10% to 20%. When SC5 completed in 1929, however, it completed a much greater cycle: the multi-century GSC.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you will wish you've never felt compelled …

  • amokta

    All is quiet on the Eastern Front. Perhaps friday's market activty spelled the end of Bear Market 2.0 ? Move on, move on, nothing to see here, just Dead Bear.
    Anyway, next week is the last week, if Prechter is wrong , i am cancelling EWI subscription, and will think about HOB subscription!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Are you thinking about Zero or Retracement Levels? I am. I am a cheap bastard though, and don't subscribe to anything yet.

  • string01

    I love how these corrective waves just destroy minds.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    A couple longer term charts:

    Weekly $SPX over the last 2 years. The CCI(18) just flashed a buy signal, which is only the 3rd time in the last 2 years, but the previous 2 times both led to more upside. If we finish next week higher, then my target would be the upper bollinger band (1131) or the 200 EMA (1141)

    http://content.screencast.com/users/jbreedlove/

    Monthly $SPX over the last 2 years. Looks like we're at the 30 EMA resistance, if we get rejected here hopefully we can move back down to 1005.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/jbreedlove/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That was an amazing movie btw…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, everyone seems to subcribe somewhere else and expect ole' Mole to keep producing content gratis. It's kind of f…cked up – especially if you see Geronimo banking one win after the other. Nevertheless it almost got no subs – I don't get you guys – trading couldn't be any easier..

    Well, have fun at HOB but don't expect the free ride here to last forever. If you guys all turn into freeloaders this site is going subscription only.

  • raised_by_wolves

    If $VIX makes a money shot for 19, I wonder where that would put $SPX/$VIX?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • yudhisthira

    Sorry about the eyes. I will tone it down next time.

  • string01

    Heh … no problem the doctors were able to reattach my retinas.

  • raised_by_wolves

    My guess is that EWI would work well enough for someone buying and selling stocks. But forget it if you're leveraging yourself. Why don't you consider one of Mole's subs (and if you're an especially generous person buy me one too). Subscribing to Geronimo would be a no brainer. The only reason I don't is that I'm still too poor to subscribe to anything.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I was going to write, “Especially empty, hollow minds” but then I thought of the Tao of Pooh, and I knew these corrective waves wouldn't destroy Pooh's mind.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Red or gold – any bets on which will be the real 100 channel?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves
  • kanur

    No doubt about it, Karl is smart but he also tends to see things that only he can see… if you know what I mean.

  • PRSGuitars

    Let me take a look when I have TOS up — this looks like a 133-rich
    environment. Sweet!

    I know you and the Gerbil tend to watch ratio charts more than I —
    hopefully this will yield something of note.

  • amokta

    Thanks all. Im not sure if i will subscribe to HOB – was just saying for effect! Geronimo/evil is too advanced for me (as yet), plus it trades futures which i dont do as yet, plus if you need a big (50$k) lump sum upfront for trading account, that rules me out for now.

    Maybe you need to do a weekly mini-post to promote geronimo/evil, if folks were more aware of its success, then more might subscribe?

  • amokta

    I dont do currencies, but seems nice !

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    little hamster makes is porsche leave the garage…. tiger porsche modified …aka Elephant

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Mole, as I mentioned before I don't do futures and I have a longer timeframe than your products (but I don't subscribe any others either)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    19? it will probably do an 18 if it doesn't reverse, and could go to upper bb13 close to 60-61

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gold is a very dangerous channel that hits 1250's….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    didn't happen so far…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I am aware of that fact – unfortunately Eric keeps forgetting to supply me with updated charts. However, I'm getting close to start serving the signal again via NinjaTrader, which will enable me to produce my own.

  • raised_by_wolves

    “19? [$VIX] will probably do an 18 if it doesn't reverse, and [$SPX/$VIX] could go to upper bb13 [on the daily chart] close to 60-61”

    You're referring to Rat Bands on the daily chart while I'm showing the weekly chart. Care to comment on these weekly charts?

    I think a likely reversal zone is between here and <70. However, what if Mole's green scenario materializes? Reversal around 90?

    Weekly $SPX/$VIX with Rat Bands:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Weekly $SPX/$VIX with Voodoo Channels:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    One of the important features of the weekly chart with Rat Bands is the BB13s going parallel and horizontal.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    This suggests the formation of a range and perhaps a range within a range. These are the questions to ask then: (1) How long will $SPX/$VIX be in this range? A week? A month? (2) Will the breakout occur to the upside or the downside? (3) When and where should the a swing trader go short? At the first sight of a red weekly candle? At the top of the range? Only if and when there is a breakout to the downside?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Short at red line and use a tight stop? If broken, short upon move below red line or touch of gold, whichever happens first?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    IF it gets there 67.5 is a safe short for a reversal to 52

    as for the rest I'll take a look later

  • gmak

    I'm gong to put Monday's post up early, because it is generic. I will update with Pivots etc in a comment on Monday AM.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14669#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
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  • string01

    Mu

  • string01

    Is there a description of Rammstien ? I don't see a link.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's stricly intraday for futures, will send an email to open position and stoploss value. will send close at WIN or COVER

    try it free while it lasts

  • raised_by_wolves

    P'u

  • string01

    indeed.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's stricly intraday for futures, will send an email to open position and stoploss value. will send close at WIN or COVER

    try it free while it lasts

  • raised_by_wolves

    P'u

  • string01

    indeed.