Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Here’s the Friday E-Mini wrap up via the Zero indicator – very few comments today as I’m a bit strapped for time (a ton of setups waiting below). But I think it’s fairly self explanatory. Admittedly a pretty flat signal day but the Zero Lite pointed to the upside most of the time. If you are a sub then you know Friday was a high probability trend day:

NYSE TICK closed 91.42% above its zero mark. HIGH probability of an Up Trend Day!

Honorable mention: Nice Mole reversal signal! :-)

I wouldn’t bother touching the E-Mini right now – it’s in shake out mode and I want to see some stabilization before picking a ST setup here.

However, that doesn’t mean we can’t have fun – we’ve got a ton of great setups this morning. Here’s the AUD/JPY touching its 25-day SMA. Great spot to get positioned.

Gold is testing a brand new hourly NLBL – should be good for the next five hours. Short on failure but only long if it manages to push back above both ST SMAs.

More below – please step into my lair:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Corn at support – nice inflection point.

Bonds – wohoooo! Nice move there. Let’s see if she can hold – again, nice ST inflection point.

USD/JPY – already below its 25-hour but I wouldn’t be short until it breaches that NLSL. Long above the 25-hour.

USD/CHF – actually on further consideration I wouldn’t be short unless it drops through the NLSL. Long above the 100-hour SMA.

USD/CAD – what is this, Christmas? So many setups! Great inflection point – SMA plus NLBL – you know what to do.

NZD/USD – at support – use it.

GBP/USD – long with a stop below 1.5715 (prior candle low).

Speculative long on the EUR/JPY – that BB may hold.

CAD/JPY – near dual support.

AUD/USD – still watching this one I think I would be short below 1.041 and long above 1.044.


By the way, in case you were busy watching that four hour Superbowl spectacle yesterday – make sure you catch up on my latest POMO update: Fed Versus ECB.


This entry was posted on Monday, February 4th, 2013 at 8:54 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Wow it’s a currency morning

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks Mole. It is nice to see bucky above its 100 H sma for a change. Let’s see if it holds.

  • i Bergamot

    Just incase Dollar holds this 79ish support area, I found  UUPT  – 3x Bull Dollar ETF. Never knew about this one before, need to see how it trades. Looks illiquid tho

  • molecool

    Stay away. Learn how to trade FX – currency ETFs are for pikers.

  • i Bergamot

     Yea, you are right about currency ETF’s.
    That UUPT had 20c spread few minutes ago – I don’t think its tradable.
    Do not have access to FX at this moment.

  • BobbyLow

    I fought trading Forex for quite a long time.  And looking back now, I’m scratching my head as to why I held back.  

    IMO, once you get used to the terminology, it is much easier to trade than trading any currency ETF.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Through the use of proper stops, there is far less risk trading currency pairs with Forex than trading Currency ETF’s.This is especially true for illiquid 2X, 3X Currency ETF’s.  They are sucker plays that sit dormant all night while Forex is trading away throughout the night.  Then when your 2X, 3X ETF’s open for trading in the morning, all of the night’s action is exploded in the ETF open price. This combined with illiquidity and a potential larger spread between Bid and Ask, leaves you open for a Perfect Storm of getting screwed.
    So like Mole said  “Stay away. Learn how to trade FX – currency ETFs are for pikers.”

  • Skynard

    Grrrr, what a puss!

  • Joe_Jones

    could be a retest before a move higher. 

  • i Bergamot


  • i Bergamot

    People of the Internets!
    This is exactly why I live here at EvilSpeculator.
    Thank you, guys for stopping me, BEFORE I made a mistake !!!
    (iBergamot gets off his soap box)

  • Skynard

    Planning on this market re-testing the highs before any correction. That is where i’ll be waiting:) In the meantime, long /ES 1499.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Watching ZL 5 min
    I’m keeping things short until it gives a signal
    /TF is losing its hourly 100 NQ needs to confirm

  • Joe_Jones

    This down move looks well too organised to me. I am skeptic.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Divergence on TICK and equity futures between 10:40. and 11:00
    See if morning gap can fill

  • Joe_Jones

    There is a strong move on VIX today, but I don’t like the open gap, which tend to fill at some point. The positive div on 5 min ZL seen so far doesn’t help too.

  • Pervergence

    Took gold long at the 25hr sma breach… far so good

  • BobbyLow

    As much as I hated to do so, I quickly scanned the headlines and Voila, problems in Euroland popped up again and the US is making nicey nice with Iran.  So there you have it.

    It’s all bullshit but it would be too boring to say that  market price needs a correction and no way in hell Oil should be as high as it is.   :)

  • Joe_Jones

    Anybody knows where is the daily NLSL on ES?

  • Skynard

    That will make a hell of a pattern on the hourly if it does fill the gap.

  • Pervergence

    Anybody taking the setups??…..just curious

  • beentohardknocksU

    AUDJPY fell through a NLSL on the hourly.  Have been holding a small-ish short position.  So far, so good. Lot’s of room to fall if it chooses to, stop not too far away if it doesn’t.  

  • Joe_Jones

    There is quite a bit of support right at ES 1492. I am trying a long ES now, but will reverse position if 1490 is taken. 

  • Exar Kun

    took a long shot a min ago through WS Dow 30, now in the green. hope to hav a chance to set stops at break-even b4 i zzzz…

  • Joe_Jones

    will close half at VWAP (if we get there)

  • Skynard

    This would be the place for a bounce me thinks, bottom of the pattern. Long as well gor re-test, gap fill before the real dump:)

  • molecool

    Those setups were good hours ago sleepyhead – you snooze you lose.

  • Darth_Gerb

    it’s not bullshit.
    WTIC is at 99 (or 97), just like the PnF said it should be at.

  • bdoone

    Agree, meaningful tops have re-tests, plus they’re not gonna make this easy for the bears.

  • Darth_Gerb

    nice reverse on the equity/treasury ratio, but it’s bullshit till some real red shows up.
    I haven’t forgotten the BPSPX pointing up Friday.$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p00910157670

  • BobbyLow

    Oh but Bullshit is in the eyes of the beholder.  :)

    I’m not questioning what the price of Oil is  based on T/A.  However, I am questioning what the price would be if it was really  dependent upon Supply and Demand.   

    And that part is Pure Unadulterated Bullshit.   

  • Darth_Gerb

    (Gerb surrenders the field)

  • Skynard

    Out of /DX long, into EURUSD now

  • bdoone

    Is that a +div building on ZL?

  • i Bergamot

    If a dip buyer looking for dip – here is one. Little lower tomorrow will be even better.
    I’m not buying right here and now. Not yet. I actually sold some of weaklings, took some profits.
    Look at URA. Considering that uranium/nuclear sector was completely destroyed past Fucushima, and most of these companies are penny stocks – etf is not a bad idea. And it’s acting just fine today.
    I’m holding CCJ (thanks Mole, I would have missed this one for sure)- its basically last man standing and almost monopoly in this space

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

  • bullregard

    /NG diddling with the 25h SMA… and looking very sick…

    EDIT: oops, when did I change the hourly to 15 minutes?… ah well, still looking bad.

  • Darkthirty

    Signed up for es gold, claims its running, got an icon ,no chart, won’t let me sign in either

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