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Not Completely Useless
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Not Completely Useless

by The MoleJanuary 19, 2016

This is going to be a short post as I’m running short of time. However before you run off in a huff to abandon these hallowed halls of market madness for good let me assure you that I have a darn good reason which I’ll be happy to share with you after a quick equities update.

2016-01-19_spoos_ST

As the bell is about to ring let’s dive right in. The E-Mini is back at short term resistance which makes this a great opportunity to be SHORT until about 1907.5 where we’ve got a brand spanking new NLBL. If that one gives I think we may actually snap higher and I would want a seat on the bus. So the plan one more time in a nutshell:

  • Short here. Stop near 1907.5.
  • Long > 1907.5 with a stop < 1880.

2016-01-19_spoos_LT

Here’s the long term picture – you may want to zoom in there. Tepid support on the daily and we have a NLSL touch on the monthly. THAT one is important folks – if it gives – boy oh boy that would be a bad day for equities.

2016-01-19_campaign

Alright, so let’s talk about my weekend project. As you all know I have been posting discretionary setups here for years as it’s something I greatly enjoy outside of my automated system trading initiatives. However one aspect of taking manual entries that has always annoyed me a little was all the legwork. Not just in maintaining the trades but also in keeping track of it all and sharing updates with my readers and subscribers.

So when I was redoing the site I had this crazy idea. Why not write a piece of code that would take snapshots of my charts and upload them to my web server? Those could then be displayed in a widget for everyone to see. So I dug in and finding the appropriate C# routines wasn’t very difficult to do. Once that was up and running I however realized that I still would have to constantly mark the charts so that readers would be able to see what’s going on. So I had even a crazier idea – why not convert one of my strategies to trigger on a manual cue and then choose a particular campaign management approach as needed?

Well, that’s exactly what I put together this weekend. The screenshot above shows a ES campaign which by now has stopped out. It’s not working perfectly yet – for one it just got stuck after I switched workspaces. Not a big deal as it’s running remotely and an update every few hours is fine. But I think you all get the general idea here. You’ll be able to see all open and some of the recently completed campaigns on your right in the open campaigns widget. I also will be able to hook this up to my Google spreadsheets account so that I can collect/track the stats. Very cool!

What bugs me a little is that the little widget icon apparently is only generated once. That’s kind of nice for knowing how it looked like at entry. However if you click on it then you get the latest update. I’ll try to figure out how to re-generate the little icon as well – so here goes another weekend I guess.

Any input would be welcome as always – I hope you all find this new site feature as cool as I do!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    cartoon nudity?

    JNK soggy, RSI < 30.

    unless something hits the big buy button. IMHO cautious short.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51902296845

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Definitely a cool feature. Thanks for all of your effort.

  • BobbyLow

    Morning Folks,

    I had a great weekend and hope that everyone did as well. My team gets to play for the AFC Championship again so I’m happy about that. 🙂 I’m very concerned about going into Denver again but it is what it is.

    I’m still holding a 1/4 Position of Short Crude via SCO and it’s nice to see a 29 Handle. Also still holding a 1/2 Position of Short Basic Materials via SMN . I’m down to holding a bare bones market inventory and am waiting for the market to develop further before considering any subtractions or additions.

  • ridingwaves

    short the rip is still in play until it isn’t…better for bulls if 1820 was hit…RIP Glenn Frey, this year sucks already for music….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeNBspJGVko

  • BKXtoZERO

    More pain for gold bug stocks….. XAU looks like head/shoulders to me w/ case of dandruff. GDX/HUI slightly behind. Should be good at some point in the future.

  • BKXtoZERO

    People have been posting New Kid in Town from the same show. Pretty good stuff.

  • Round we go

    maybe we should buy your stops mole 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    the Eagles bring back some good simple memories, where $5 in your pocket felt like you owned the world…

  • Round we go

    funny i think gold is going to try to test 1050. silver will lead tho, if it does.

  • BKXtoZERO

    before cell phones when kids played and talked to each other. I was in 6th grade and skateboarding when New Kid in Town was all over the radio in 1976

  • BKXtoZERO

    980

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    tell me about it. dumped last holdings.
    not out of fear, but indicators.

  • Round we go

    type i meant 1150.

  • Rightside

    Automated trade tacking would be a timesaver to subs, great idea

  • ridingwaves

    the vix staying elevated is not looking good for bulls…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    It’s a waiting game..

    [ES 4Hr]
    http://s10.postimg.org/hat5cmgxl/paint_dry_19th.png

    Me thinks the 50% channel is waiting for a reverse up.
    (overhead becomes support and all that)

  • BKXtoZERO

    just went all in after I saw your purple dot 😉

  • Billabong

    Quiet here… ES/NQ/YM wicks as the opening climb was sold.

  • ridingwaves

    the 1907 number via Mole really looks good for shorting when you consider SPX volume gap at 1910…it will have to leap that gap overnight for it to run much further..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I disagree.
    the ES is in the upper part of a downhill channel.
    if price breaks higher out of the channel completely, ‘the bear party is over’ so to speak for the time length of the channel, IMHO.

    I guess that’s what makes a market.

  • ridingwaves

    4 hr channels are pretty easy to break…a daily channel would bolster your case…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I cannot dispute that claim.

    I can look at the 2hr ES RSI.

    all I see is support at this time.
    (orange line)
    http://s30.postimg.org/6o4y4zcqp/2hr_support.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pneumonia…pretty common way to ultimately kill off our hearts. I’ve seen this happens a lot in the hospitals for pts coming in for much less minor problems..its a largely unmitigated risk for practically anyone. Moral is to maintain best possible lung health… and gargle with 2% hydrogen peroxide…and a few other things to minimize risk.

  • Yoda

    Greetings.

  • Th3_Acist

    Amazing work Mole!

  • Round we go

    interesting huh?

  • Yoda

    Bullish on EURUSD anybody is?

  • mugabe

    the clincher

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    falling wedge, yes.

    I don’t think it’s drawn properly, but it will do.

    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    update: 2Hr crossed to the down, watching 4Hr for support.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yep

  • BobbyLow

    Not much to say if not trading intra-day.

    But I think I’ve learned something from my Cat Ozzie. If Ozzie sees a spyder or some type of bug that has escaped him, he’ll conserve his energy, put himself in position, stay in one place for as long as it takes, and patiently wait. Once the bug appears, Ozzie usually takes care of business.

    Kind of a stretch metaphor here but trying to find a new swing in a choppy market that has not demonstrated any evidence that the current longer term swing trend has completed can be like chasing that sometimes elusive bug. 🙂

  • mugabe

    surely your cat uses a derivative of distance like rsi rather than the distance itself?

  • ridingwaves

    nobody wants to buy this market….its done….put a stake in it….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Money and confidence leaving the market.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    50%, this is where the children get scared, and the 4hr holds.
    maybe. 😉

    otherwise. (Hell to pay)
    http://polomania.hu/images/designs/tn3/213192689751a6772d26bb9.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    until 1820 area is tested, dip buying bulls will be crushed…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So, who here grabbed short positions this morning? 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I agree. 4Hr RSI currently at 37.5, about to move lower(?)

    that would be bad since it was support back to Jan 3 (!!)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you good sir!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A lot of new faces today. Welcome Yoda – the more the merrier.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If you want to post here you will have to turn to the dark side! 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    somebody say yes,
    otherwise he’ll throw a fit, and shut down the blog.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…added to the short ON after the swing low in vol. Trend is your friend sort of thing.

  • nyse

    I did

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…its becoming more important all the time.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    Nope. Ozzie told me that he tried using RSI to determine which direction that the Bug would go but it was only right about half the time. So now he just measures the distance from where he’s lying down and where the bug currently is and then reacts to the bug’s movement. 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Frankly, I’d really love to see all the nuvo QE asset-rich or life-supported finally get their fucking heads handed to them.

  • nyse

    @molecool:disqus et. al.: We spend a lot of time here exploring cognitive biases so I thought I’d share something that has been a real help in analyzing my own thinking.

    Here is a link to a summary of Rolf Dobelli’s “The Art of Thinking Clearly,” which outlines I think about 100 different cognitive biases. It is just a summary — the full book is great and is highly recommended. Enjoy!

    http://aboitiz.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/The-Art-of-Thinking-Clearly.pdf

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So I was sitting in the sauna at the gym and suddenly figured out an easy way to change the icon. Should update with each new image upload now 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That looks pretty brilliant – thanks so much!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My man!

  • nyse

    Man you’ll love it

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The only problem for me today was that it took profits after 1.8R as it had pushed to 2.8R and was trailing at 1R. This will be a problem when the stop is nearby in special cases like today. Because it’s all R based. So in such times I will have to start trailing later – perhaps after 3R or 4R. it’s in the settings already but something I will have to consider in each campaign. It may actually make sense to draw all that on the chart as a reminder and I’ll work on that tomorrow.

  • ridingwaves

    lots of little folks in 401K’s, the rich are hedged, not so for the little folks..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Amazing what happens when we can relax a bit. I’m sure its happened with you too that certain software (and other) problems then also get solved in dreams.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Love stuff like this which is never found in the schools where it belongs in the first place.

  • Yoda

    Your welcome I thank. Padawan trader I am. From the masters unbiased training I seek. As best as I can, occasional, hopefully relevant, contributions I’ll attempt to make. 😉

  • Yoda

    On this offer I pass. Anger, fear, aggression. The dark side are they. Once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny and end up a sloper you will.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, they automatically get railroaded into the bubble….a very dangerously broken system.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    is it too early to smirk yet? candle hasn’t finished yet.

    the Market has scar’d me.

    http://s30.postimg.org/l7i5hbz29/early_smirk.png

  • Round we go

    machines are at it let see if they can get it done.

  • Huey

    Looks like it could be some profit taking/short covering here. Bought a little XIV to hold overnight…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    UPDATE: the RSI did dip under 37, for a while.
    now at 41.3 – above both RSI’s.
    sneaky algos, that’s the Hard Right Edge for ya.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Again, really no great exacerbation of participation by vol..a bit more than usual however judging by the spread from cash of UVXY and TVIX.

  • Billabong

    Patiently waiting for 0% BPI on oil majors …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    good stuff, I will have to ascertain slowly.

    +1

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks NYSE. This looks like good stuff.

  • BKXtoZERO

    “Any input would be welcome as always – I hope you all find this new site feature as cool as I do!” No input, just thanks. unreal amount of work you are putting in.

  • nyse

    Yeah I never even heard about the whole field of behavioral finance until after I graduated. Wild.

  • ridingwaves

    the mm’s could play the 1860-1910 channel for weeks before they smash it to 1800’s

    what is amazing is there are some attactive buys out there

    NRZ? enjoy the yield

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    and this whole day could have been one big fucking stop run.
    😉

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    shorted SPY at close

  • mugabe
  • mugabe

    lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Absolutely – I actually have debugged code in my head while dozing in bed in the morning.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ballsy…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Met him in Malibu once.

  • Round we go

    I lined up to surf with kelly slater on 10ft waves, in malibu. I ate shit on some monster wave, that he waved me in on. he probably would have nailed it.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yah, whether good or bad was one of the scenarios in my wknd plan and also the one I thought least likely to trigger. Needless to say, I have a tight leash on this one.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    actually

    Never judge a decision purely by its result
    especially when randomness and external
    factors play a role. A bad result does not
    automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice
    versa.

    He may ‘win’, but it’s a bad process in the long run.
    Over vice versa.
    He may ‘lose’ this time, but over time, a winner will pay for all of his losers.
    -GG

    (the veterans have sat through the conversation, the newbies have not)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I think Mole is remarking on me betting against such oversold conditions. I would agree w him that the easy money on short side is gone.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    that’s what I thought about the Ruble.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RBL&p=D&st=2014-06-02&en=2015-05-01&id=p84037094200

    caught a knife 4 days before the spike low.

    took me 2 MONTHS to unload it. (for a small profit)

    stupid, stupid.

    😉

  • Billabong

    My MOMO indicators have no indication of a change in ST sentiment…

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh me neither. I had today as a potential change day but the set up failed.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Process is of paramount importance, if a trade – win or lose – is going be just one among a few hundreds or thousands.

    If instead of posting their trades, what if traders start posting their criteria for taking the trade? It will not only clear up their own thinking but will also be worthwhile for the rest of us,

  • Billabong

    The NYSE and NASDAQ Summation Indexes are at OS levels (over -600 and -800 respectively). Putting aside the indices vs indexes discussion, these indexes in 2008, stayed below -600 (OS) for a long time. Often hitting more than -1400 at numerous times during the Aug-Nov time frame. More disconcerting is the Bullish Percentage Index. Out of 12 sectors, utilities are the only one at 70 or above. The rest are 50% or less. Basic materials and energy are in single digits…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    just took a peek.

    down 16?

    could be some happy bears tomorrow. the night is young, we shall see!

    http://s28.postimg.org/4swrqn8m5/happy_bear.png

  • phantomflash

    I got in the trade, but late. The first time I looked at the site this morning, the new post wasn’t up. The next time I looked, the market was already headed down. Somewhat later I saw your stop indicated in the small chart (great idea, and really appreciated!), and it wasn’t long after that before I was stopped out near B/E. Nice trade for those who saw the post early enough. I’ve been more successful catching some of your other trades where the timing was more favorable.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Your trade looks pretty spiffy rt now. Kudos.

  • phylum

    That’s hilarious, if he wanted it, he would have … lesson there … ur lucky it wasn’t Pipeline:)

  • mugabe

    Possibly … but, as Scott said, you can *always* make a case for going long *or* short.
    Ideally, you would also need to know the other positions in the person’s portfolio, otherwise you have no idea of overall risk management, and you would also need to know the exit criteria for the trade in question.

  • mugabe

    well done … I wouldn’t have gone short there (although one of my two open positions *is* a short)

  • Billabong

    Failed DCB buy signals; YM / NQ / ES … Looking like a rock and roll day. Still watching CL for a bottoming signal

  • Darkthirty

    DCB ? Educate me…….

  • mugabe

    yep .. as mole has said, a good market for small position sizes and wide stops

  • Billabong

    Dead cat bounce… A reversal that allows position holders to sell in a declining trend line.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Nice short entry Mole. 1850 breached overnight.

  • Billabong

    CL hitting session LOD at 28.45 …. Down 74% from Jun 2014 high.

  • ridingwaves

    maybe getting end of short the rip game plan without consequences, 1829 overnight, maybe gun for the 1790-1820 area today or tomorrow and I would think it will consolidate there..

  • BobbyLow

    It’s fallen and can’t get up. 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

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