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Pompous Prognosticators

by The MoleJune 14, 2009

I can’t help but feeling increasingly giddy this weekend as the smell of free falling equities is in the air. Let me begin this week’s post with today’s Bloomberg news clipping:

Notice some of the salient words in those headlines: Bottom, Recovery, Record Gains. I love words – as a matter of fact – I collect them! For mere words can turn armies and they can compel men to walk into their death with a bright smile on their face.

True, This! —
Beneath the rule of men entirely great,
The pen is mightier than the sword. Behold
The arch-enchanters wand! — itself a nothing! —
But taking sorcery from the master-hand
To paralyze the Cæsars, and to strike
The loud earth breathless! — Take away the sword —
States can be saved without it!

Edward Bulwer-Lytton, Richelieu; Or the Conspiracy.

If you killed some time (and brain cells) watching MSM economic reports this weekend, you might have noticed that the resonant question at this point is not whether or not ‘the bottom is in’ but when the ‘stock market recovery’ will spill over into the broader economy. There it is right there – the very essence of what defines the practice of neuro-linguistic programming. If you bother to look at the Wiki page – don’t believe the white washed summary explanation for a second – rather NLP is nothing but the practice of employing words to your own benefit and to further your own agenda. There’s nothing nice about it – on the contrary – it’s quite devious IMNSHO – which is why I study it intently 😉

Let me demonstrate:

Try not to think of a pink elephant in your living room.

Gotcha! See how this works? The more insane the statement is the better it works. Rule number one for politicians, market analysts, spokes persons, and other types of con artists: Whoever frames the message owns the discussion – defines the basis of reality – and is most likely to win the argument (or the war).

However, when it comes to the art of propaganda and expert manipulation of public opinion there are two masters of the 20th century who clearly stand out – one is Joseph Goebbels, the other is Edward Bernays. The former you have probably heard of if you ever came across any WWII footage – the latter is practically unknown these days which is only a testimony to the fact that he was a lot more sophisticated and in the end more successful than Goebbels. Edward actually happened to be a nephew of Sigmund Freud – yes, the famous Austrian psychoanalyst. If you ask me – Edward Bernays changed the 20th Century more than Hitler, Stalin, and Churchill combined. If you want to know why – go and watch the documentary ‘The Century Of The Self‘ – you will never look at the concept of ‘society’ the same ever again.

Anyway, I might get some flak for being German and quoting one of the founders of the National Socialist Party (i.e. the Nazis) but nothing is black & white in life – just because you are an emotional monster doesn’t mean that you are incapable of original thought:

Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it. – Joseph Goebbels

You can’t really argue with the man – can you? Let me ask you this: Assuming you would have sat on $1 Million of cash and would have listened to the suit wearing monkeys on CNBC (i.e. Cramer and his ilk) for the past year – how much do you think you would have left? Exactly – not much. Now, why would you listen to those clowns ever again? Sounds like a legitimate question – but strangely enough it appears to be one that the majority of the population never even thinks of asking. Let’s strike that one up as one of the mysteries of human nature. It seems a large segment of society repeatedly embraces bad advice instead of using their own brains for arriving at critical decisions. Hence – the genesis of the financial industry – or in other words ‘there’s a sucker born every minute’. I’m sure Goldman Sucks would agree.

But I digress – before I led you down this dark little mental alley I was insinuating that bullish market sentiment appears to be on the rise. Of course everything in life is relative – just because you see positive headlines doesn’t meant that the market is going to tank tomorrow, right? Well, it depends – as a matter of fact, contrarians make their living by fading public opinion and when it comes to the Elliott Wave principle market psychology gives us important hints to where we are in the wave cycle. There is nothing wrong with bullish sentiment per se, but as with deserts and strong liquor, it’s best enjoyed in good measure. Whenever you find yourself surrounded by positive news about the stock market it’s most likely time to start looking at the short side.

You know it’s time to get out of the market when you receive stock tips from a shoeshine boy. — Joseph P. Kennedy

Yes, I’m full of quotes today – LOL. The second dimension of being a contrarian is context and it’s a very important ingredient. Context is everything. Have you ever tried to buy tickets to ‘Ride of the Valkyries’ in a bathing suit? Exactly – although let me know when you try as I’ll be there with my camera. Anyway, context is important since sentiment indicator readings might have one meaning in one market cycle and another meaning in the next. Let me demonstrate:

As you can see – throughout cycle wave b the 30 mark on the Bullish Percent Index used to be a strong buy signal. But throughout Primary wave {1} of c this level has largely been ignored.

But looking at the current chart abobe one would think that a reading of 75 should be pretty bearish, even in a bear market correction. Yes and no – it’s important to remember that bear markets bring us more volatility and thus more extreme readings. However, what I think is safe to say is that chances are we are a lot closer to a top than we are to a bottom.

So, when I’m talking about context tonight I am referring to the fact that the SPX just rallied 42% in the last 98 days after dropping 42% in 512 days. I find such statistics very compelling as they reveal the inherent nature of a particular wave formation. And in my mind the move off of 666.79 has bear market rally written all over it.

But you might say ‘if everyone thinks the market will go up – how can it go down’? Again, let me show you one of my favorite charts:

I have posted this before but thought the time was right to remind everyone just once more. This is the chart of the last secular bear market correction which spanned from 1929 to 1933. The numbered bubbles point at MSM headlines which accompanied the 90 drop in the Dow Jones with {1} starting at the very top. If you want to see those headlines just click on the image – it’ll take you to a page listing them.

The point I am trying to make today is that you will never ever see a headline along the lines of ‘The top is in – investors are preparing for a massive sell off in equities’. Won’t happen – in the minds of the majority of the investing public the trend is always up and the worst is usually behind us. I guess chalk this one up to the capacity of the human mind to constantly adapt to a lower status quo. Humans can survive in rain forest jungles and arctic landscapes alike – we are uniquely adaptable which is why we were able to spread across the entire planet. However, that inherent ability somewhat backfires when it comes to trading the markets as we rarely seem to be able to embrace the fact that the worst may actually be ahead of us. When we do it’s usually time to start buying. Or, as Robert Prechter puts it so aptly:

To succeed in the market, you must learn initially to embrace irony and paradox, at least as we are unconsciously wired to interpret things. Once you get used to the world of socionomic causality, the irony and paradox melt away, and everything makes perfect sense. — Robert Prechter

I would like to conclude today’s post with the short and longer term wave count. As I stated on Friday – it seems that we either concluded an Intermediate degree wave or will do so in the next few days. Final confirmation will arrive by a departure from the sideways channel we have been occupying in the past 10 trading days. It’s fairly simple at this point:

Green: We breach through the previous 956.23 high which would be a confirmation that Minuette (iii) of Minute {v} of Minor C of Intermediate (Y) will push us towards the 970 region..

Blue: We breach through 928 which means that Intermediate (Y) concluded last Thursday and we are now in Minute {ii} of Minor A of (X). There is a chance that we are already in Primary wave {3} but this is not my preferred count at the time being. Either way – we should experience a very meaningful drop at this point which should get us at least to the 880 mark – most likely a bit further.

In essence the message to take away today is that it’s time to start loading up on some puts – if we push higher on Monday you might get the chance to get cheaper premiums on your puts. If we drop through 928 then you can either load up right then and there or take your chances and wait for a little bounce. Of course there is a bit of risk associated with loading up during a drop and I understand that most of you are most likely very hesitant to do so after getting burned repeatedly in the past three months. I completely understand that – but also understand that you very rarely get the perfect entry and as a trader you often have to make decisions that go against your instincts. Those are often the most lucrative ones I might add.

Here’s another way at looking at the same chart. Note that we are are in a clean rising channel right now and if you are an eager beaver you might want to consider 930 as a confirmation that more downside is upon us.

Since most of you are most likely looking at various trend/momentum indicators I didn’t want to pollute this post with listing the usual suspects again. After all – nothing much has really changed since last week – the daily chart above shows that we’ve gone completely sideways – it’s been almost painful to the max. However, look at the daily Zero signal in conjunction with the recent advances. Seems to me that this rally is running out of steam – maybe it’s not completely done yet but it’s in dire need of a correction. At some point you reach that moment when there is nobody left to buy calls or stock from. And you know what usually happens then – even the Curly’s various shadow trading desks can’t keep this thing running forever.

The Dollar is at a very important inflection point. Either it rallies immediately from here or more downside is in sight. If we breach through 81 then my preliminary target would be 84. If we drop from here then 77 is assured.

Watch the 10-year treasury this week – seems to me that we either completed an beautiful a-b-c or are close to doing so. Bullish sentiment in the treasury market is in the single digits – which tells me that we’re close to painting at least a temporary bottom.

My Silver puts are doing okay thus far but I would like to see a bit more downside progress at this point. Fortunately I got myself some longer term options this time around – when it comes to precious metals you have the following options:

  • Trade the futures
  • Buy/Sell the ETF directly
  • Play the theta burn via delta neutral strategies (e.g. iron condor)
  • Sell options (dangerous!!)
  • Buy longer term options

I’m a simple man – so I go with longer term options 😉

That’s all I have for you rats tonight – see you on the other side! Remember, its OPX week – so, it’ll most likely be choppy and there will be plenty of head fakes. Think more longer term as we are heading into this week – it’s time to abandon our swing trading mentality and start trading on an Intermediate degree level – at least when it comes to our discretionary trades.

Cheers,

Mole

UPDATE 8:45pm EDT: I forgot to mention – after last week’s horrid tape Eric and I decided to extend the geronimo/ES trial for another week. So, if you are an evil.rat/ES or evil.rat/NQ subscriber you will continue to receive geronimo/ES alerts until June 19th.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Thanks for another great analysis post, are you putting any weight on SPY max pain being 83 this week?

    Also gold just tagged 50ema 935.9 (GC futures)

    On the dollar, looks like 82.6 will be another key level with fib confluence, 50ema and a trendline at that level, with backtest of 200dma and other fib confluence above at 83.8
    http://esecfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/

  • fa_q

    I was surprised to see all of the bullishness in the other comment section, but pleased to see Anna utilize the – in her Mole-ster :)

    I have no positions on but I think the market sells off this week in a nasty, choppy manner. Market should hold above 910, though and then I believe it will proceed to put in the final top of the summer after which 780-820 should come fairly quickly.

    Looks like another 2 weeks of the 900-950 chop garbage to me.

  • annamall

    Hi sweetie, so basically we are right back to the same place we were last week, except this is OPX week. Which means allot more whipsaw before we get that realy direction. I hate OPX, except when the trade goes my way.

    Great analysis as usual Molester! see you later 😉

  • annamall

    LOL I just make a faux mistake Fa_q! I agree on the chop chop this week, especially with OPX week. :-)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Quoted: “It seems a large swath of society repeatedly embraces bad advice instead of using their own brains for arriving at critical decisions.”

    One has to have brains on the first place

  • Squidman

    Bernays, basically an analyst with the mind of a businessman. An artist of a salesman, if you will. Selling genuine tihsllub. Great post! I am leaning towards the h&s that actually plays out this time on the usd but will be quite happy to wait for confirmation and take the 60 or 70 percent of the move that unfolds–don't need to be greedy. There is no fear, and I will not feel sorry for the legions of tribbles that did not heed the signs and have STILL not done anything about their 301Ks.

  • molecool

    “are you putting any weight on SPY max pain being 83 this week”

    NO, max pain has been ignored in the past few months. I don't put too much stock in it – maybe it's worth to consider it as 'directional bias'.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Yippee! Thanks Mole, you've made my weekend!

    I'll be watching AAPL closely this week. Here's an updated look at trend lines and the Chicken Oscillator, which is showing the possibility for a hard sell off.
    http://tinyurl.com/mrh637

  • ablebonus

    IBM looks to be completing an a-b-c up after the Nov 21 lows. a=c and c looks like a bearish rising wedge. Plus IBM is a big part of the price weighted DOW…

    http://www.screencast.com/users/ablebonus1/fold

  • innatedc

    They are bidding this thing down already on the futs…..gap down tommorrow? I do like the short side even more….

  • ropey

    Anna, i did a little more thinking of RIMM this w/e. I'm actually a bit pissed at the way the stock is behaving lol…the timing with a potential market dump is going to at least create some opportunity but i'm getting more and more nervous about longs..mole with his RnD is backing this up. Also as its opex the could essentially 'chop and hold' the market here even though it's saying dive dive dive..
    So with RIMM i see a huge ascending wedge right now and it's having trouble popping through…..so they may drop it back down to 78-79 and then perhaps i may take a punt to the long side however 'logic dictates' to quote Spock that this puppy should dump further down. Now the most OI is at 80 for June, rimm is also a beast of a stock….i think my plan will be potentially go long on any further weakness but is contrary right now to what i see – gut says long, chart tells me to short lol. I'll likely get the hell out prior to earnings if it surges up…i don't see it going higher than 90-95 and even then they may screw people with calls over 90 and sink it right below. That 91.30 or so level that Fujisan is a convenient fib line though.

    With the pattern though it seems a drop to 70 is more likely but i'd feel way more comfortable on that if they push it up hard into earnings..
    this is a toughie. The new iphone is also out on friday.

  • ropey

    That dollar is itching to breakout to the upside, this is going to be bloody. I was reading elliot sites again and they think it could take out 90, it was 89 in march at the low..

  • innatedc

    If that dollar follows thru your head and shoulders Mole, that would put us at your 50% fib area as well, using the neckline distance to shoulders……good work….

  • ropey

    Nice charts – yet another tech with a bearish ascending wedge. It's all starting to come to a head. It'll be interesting to see if they juice this badboy till friday with the 3Gs finally coming out or maybe don't care. I don't know when the retails sales come out when the phone launches, i think they were pretty quick to get them out for the Palm Pre when it launched.

  • ropey

    Just had a look at chickens Apple chart – if that goes down, rimm will have a tough time rising..

  • katzo7

    Mole le cool said,
    “The point I am trying to make today is that you will never ever see a headline along the lines of ‘The top is in – investors are preparing for a massive sell off in equities’. Won’t happen”
    Amen. It all comes down to trading what one sees in their charts, not CNBC, not Cramer, not what everyone else is doing. Every time I waver from this and don't list to my inner warning bells going off I get taught a lesson.

    Excellent post mole, a weave of literature, history, sociology, philosophy, economy, psychology and probably a few other ologies.
    BTW I can hear the in their tone the optimism or pessimism on CNBC and Thursday and Friday they were crazy optimistic (voice read). And no, I don't hear dogs talking to me. Watching Slumdog Millionaire again.

  • innatedc

    I have noticed that too…however, if there were to be a sizable red candle in the next day or so we could see alot of those calls unloading in a hurry which would accelerate more downside…some market gurus (ie- Schaeffer) are pushing this coming opex to be an opportunity of a lifetime for June options (likely cheap puts) so we'll see….

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    thanks, just wondering… because last month it was
    May June
    SP500 Fri before
    opex weekend 929.23 946.21
    Max Pain 870 830
    Pts from Max Pain 59 116

    and then Wed, Thurs, Fri SP lows were 883, 882, 878

    that was week with previous BPNYA high also

    doubt we rip 120 lower this week, but would have to favor mr blue, especially if dollar rebounds

    month worth of positions above 920 and 2 months worth above 880, break below those levels could cause some panic selling right into 38% retracement of the rally ~845

  • molecool

    1+ for tribble reference :-)

  • innatedc

    Jai-ho, Katzo man!!!! Gotta video of you doing Bollywood dancing yet?

  • ropey

    I'm out of here for tonight, off to see the new pelham 123 with travolta..

    Here's the original trailer..they don't make 'em like they used to lol

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNGagEjsdVM

  • Keirsten

    You forgot proctology for the bagholders. 😉

  • Keirsten

    Oh look at you! I love the blonde hair change Sistah! Welcome to my world! LOL You won't believe what it does for your trading skills.

  • alphadriven

    Excellent post, Mole. I always look forward to your Sunday night update. Thanks for taking the time and energy to put it together. Now I am off to watch, The Century of the Self.

  • tranchefoot

    Hey, Mole, when will geronimo be available?

  • innatedc

    THe risk reward on a bear call credit spread 110/115 for July is more than 4:1 (if stop is 110)….I like that play.

  • TexEx

    I liked your post, mole.

  • salvadorveiga

    maybe i should go blonde as well ? just wondering… 😀

  • thelefteyeguy

    Thanks Mole…great post as usual

  • ropey

    Zero hedge has a great update this w/e

  • Keirsten

    Dear Mole- thanks as always for a thorough set of charts and analysis- you're the king Sugar.

    My one and only contribution for tonight's fodder is this simple look at SPY's weekly chart. Please note SPY was a mere one penny from hurdling itself over the 50. That is one strong point of contention going into the week IMO.

    http://tinyurl.com/ljy4v6

    G/L tomorrow morning everybody!

  • salvadorveiga

    really nice post as always Mole…

    Will watch the Century of Self, already bookmarked it and will watch once I have the time :)

    thanks

  • Keirsten

    Oh for God's sake, NO! You are such perfect the way you are- puhleeeeze don't change a thing! That's a new avatar, isn't it?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Mole, awesome post

    Stupid enough question:

    Dollar index rallies, or EUR /USD drops like a rock (got a mean head and shoulders taunting),

    And since last time I checked the Euro was about 50% weighting on the USD index……so roughly those 2 above go hand in hand.

    Seems to be this would make US equities expensive, and thus reduce foreign demand for US stocks, creating a headwind. Does it really work like this? How strong the headwind?

  • salvadorveiga

    :$ thanks…

    Well, it kinda is… I changed it a couple days ago but is only showing up as of now i think…

    This one has more colours and looks more Summerish :-) it was in need of a new look lol

  • katzo7

    I tink I will leave that to Dennis Kneale. LOL

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    hey mole…for someone that said they wouldn't write up a meaningful update due to so few comments….u sure wrote a beauty tonight…thanks as usual…one trade i am looking at is a futures spread trade being long sept 30 yr and short the sept 5 year…..it fits with your thinking but most importantly my research says its a good entry at these levels….cheers!!

  • katzo7

    I dunno, will have to ask my friend who does gynecology.

  • Keirsten

    Snort.

  • Fujisan

    Great post, as always, Mole! Very appreciate it.

    I was looking at this chart, which was posted 3 month ago… This is a comparison between 1938 INDU and 2009 SPX and I am stunned as to how closely SPX has been moving in relation to 1938 INDU chart (the background transparent chart is 1938 INDU).

    http://api.ning.com/files/LG*2C0YMrtZ-xsoIFgRAR

    If SPX follows this route, it won't come back down until it hits 10,000 level.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Fuji-san/fo

    Good luck to you all!

  • Fujisan

    Hey, handsome! What's this yellow thing in your background?

  • Fujisan

    Hi, Anna, you have a new look too! What's going on with this “new avatar” boom??

    You look great!

  • salvadorveiga

    Socionomic speaking should we be worried?

    Avatar booms may induce a top coming 😀

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Mole,

    Ooooh, great post this weekend!

    I moved this week, so no trading for me the last two weeks. The closing on my house is this Wednesday, but I'm a bit worried. My buyer got a “locked in” rate of 4.6%, and yes, her broker is doing everything possible to NOT close. Keeping my fingers crossed that the market does not screw me up with my house too.

    Hopefully I will be able to contribute in the coming weeks and regain my focus. I have so much catch up reading and research to do…..but I've stayed on cue with you guys.

    Thanks again for the evil post and all the comments from you guys!!!!

    Jan

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Lets not jump the gun now shorty, I think were going to see 1000 on the SP, if we don't get there I'll settle for 9,000 on the Dow.

  • salvadorveiga

    a simple wall at a night club 😉

  • Fujisan

    Gee, do you guys take pictures in front of night clubs? Is it such a special occasion?

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Geronimo is currently available to current subscribers, otherwise it will go public sometime near the end of the week.

  • ropey

    Something else to keep an eye on – the golden boys of wall street..

    GS Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Goldman Sachs Earnings Release $ 3.31 n/a $ 4.58 17-Jun-09 – 27-Jun-09

    Couple of others of interest
    BBY Q1 2010 Best Buy Co., Inc. Earnings Conference Call 10am

    And of course..
    Q1 2010 Q1 2010 Research In Motion Limited Earnings Release $ 0.93 n/a $ 0.84 18-Jun-09 AMC

  • salvadorveiga

    nooo… it was inside lol… it's a night clube near the beach…and inside you had lounge areas outdoors…

    you're not going to obligate me to put the whole pic up lol

  • molecool

    4 hours of my life I never get back…

  • molecool

    … to all evil.rat subscribers that is.

  • Fujisan

    Ahh~, if there are bunch of girls around you, I'd better not.

  • molecool

    Good luck selling the house – if you haven't already now is the time to do it.

  • molecool

    Who you're calling shorty? We can't all be 6' 3'' tall drinks of water. BTW, you know where length really counts for the ladies…. 😉

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Long 1 /NQ here at 1478.00

  • molecool

    This place is turning into a meat market – LOL – time for me to start charging for any hook ups …. mmwwuuuuaaaahaaahaaaa!!!

  • http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=12013 UPB

    Another great weekend update. You called the 944 top back in January, and just like you said in March at the lows, everyone will be thinking that the worst is over heading into the summer. I just didn't think it would happen so quickly. The banks have gone from insolvent to BS conviction buys in 3 months. BAC was at $3 now with recent upgraded targets ranging from $16 to $32 from the pumpin ANALysts. JPM hit $14 and change some ANALyst says $65 now.

    I'd say we are well overdue for a pull-back, just have to wonder when the gov't thinks we are, because it seems thats the only way we will have one.

  • salvadorveiga

    Well I wouldn't say a bunch… LOL

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    sell high

    http://screencast.com/t/Yh47Yuwyw

    Come on guys and gals – pile up on the short side – miniMe is getting bored with 6 days old rotten appl puts – bring it on!

  • Fujisan

    Can I get a special promotional rate?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    :shoe shyne boy” in my books called “doorman syndrome”
    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2008/06/door

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    bzzz….wrong….
    that post will make you famous (as oppose to rich? Damn cheap readers!)

  • alphadriven

    Reciprocity. You give us your time, and we feel obligated to buy your products :)

  • katzo7

    Provocative, funny, great.
    Thanks David.

  • salvadorveiga

    maybe you could start a website like those russian spousewives, but for latin stallions 😀

    eheheh

  • katzo7

    Length (and depth) of wallet? Right fly girls?

  • anotherone

    I was expecting a short weekend post, Mole. This is anything but. However, I am not complaining. :) Thanks a lot for the effort and the analysis.

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    My channel is better than yourz, mole! :)
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spxchannelz.jpg

  • katzo7

    Jeez you two, spring for hotel room Sal.

  • salvadorveiga

    i think he was referring to century of self… it looks like a 4 hour documentary :)

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    G/L with the house Jan. If it doesn't work out, you can always short the crap out of real estate stocks as a hedge against the house until you get a buyer.

  • lilme

    Fuji-san, your post on Friday was mesmerizing…clear complete and very instructive. It is also clear that I have a lot of learn so will proceed with caution. Thanks for your efforts.

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    Anyone lost $134 billion?
    Anyone!? You, sir?
    Please come to “Lost & Found” section in concourse No 3 to pickup your $134 billion!

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101

  • lilme

    Mole, the history book I was reading this weekend is about Europe 1930's – 1940's – as an American, who learned almost no history, I now gobble it up – and those decades were full of twists and turns and lots of double talk – economically, politically, many lessons for this kid.

    Thanks for your words, wise and technically.

  • wex

    I saw an interesting comment in Barron's this weekend. It was a comparison of the money base divided by the stock market value. Currently 2.9x at peak of market in 2007 .9x and over last two decades 1.5 times was the normal high. It indicates to me that the huge liquidity influx has a long way to go in driving the market higher. When that takes place , I have no clue.

  • Fujisan

    You are welcome!

    There is another strategy that I really like on OPX week is a speculative credit spread (very good risk/reward). I was hoping to cover that topic, but may be next time…..

  • Osso

    GOOG at the 20 ema…..bounce or die.

  • v8muscle

    Man I think I need a new avatar…. I feel left out

  • katzo7

    Good sign of a sleepy cat bounce.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • lilme

    From the Econoday calendar tomorrow at 9 am edt

    Monday: Markets could tumble if Treasury International Capital data show the slightest weakness in Chinese or Japanese demand for Treasuries.

  • Osso

    Has someone else noticed that those sectors that bottomed in November, not in March, like goldstocks, Homebuilders, are weakening already…maybe a sign of where the mkt. will be heading. If a similar pattern will play, then carefull on the long side…..in the equity broad mkt.

  • Osso

    maybe front face….and arms relaxed..!!!!!

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Hey thanks Mole and SSC.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    The Dow has to bust a move out of this trend line pinch by Tuesday — the line that wins tells us which side has the big mo-mo.

    http://tinyurl.com/n9wltx

  • lilme

    One thought, the end of June is the end of the quarter, I would think, timing-wise, that “if the tape is manipulated” they would keep it up through the end of June, hoping to pull in the fundies or institutional people. I have read many comments about the growing anxiety of fund managers sitting on the side.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    The knowledge you've put out there for all of us cannot be measured in time. One small deed can change the world, my darling.

  • http://www.OptionsVista.com 1option

    Anyone wanna get short BLK with me?
    http://www.optionsvista.com/1option/181-getting
    Let me know what you think of the trade setup. Thanks!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    We should get an EvilSpeculator Facebook group up hahaha. Those Slopers think they're so cool with theirs now. We need to show them whats up

  • Squidman

    Actually, it's nice to see Fujisan make a play in another market even if I am feeling jilted after months of effort! Sal's gals!

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    in case you missed it, denninger did 2 great follow-up posts on that:
    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/111

  • Fujisan

    I agree – BLK is a good short and I am going to join you – but I would probably go with July instead of June. June spread is 3 to 1 risk/reward and that seems pretty expensive.

    On OPX week, you can find many good trades with at least 1 to 3 risk reward (via a credit spread – buy cheap OTM options to sell ATM options). If you pick the right direction, you will be handsomely rewarded.

    BTW, how do you like monster platform? Is it compatible to TOS?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We need more hot blonds around here – that’s right….

  • http://www.OptionsVista.com 1option

    Thanks, July looks good as well. And you're right be r/r.
    I love the monster platform so far and I will be saving so much money with commissions.
    The only downside so far is the charting is not as good as ThinkorSwim's Prophet charts and I can't find a good Risk Graph or screener.
    But I think I will fully switch over sooner or later. Hopefully these things are in the works.
    Is anyone else using Trade Monster on here?

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    EWF still has us in Wave 4 and here's why – we haven't exceeded the fork boundary.
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spxstillw40609.jpg

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    mine is funnier! :p

  • rhae

    BLK daily….So close, so it gets an alert status from me… I would like the Slow Stochastic 14,3 to dip below 80, then line up the intra day ducks… from the looks of tonights futures, it could be a go…

  • Matador11235

    I noticed that this weekend. Looks to me its gotta move either way so I put together this little monstrosity … dragonfly?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/aLX6jqSP

    I think if Goog goes back to 430 on monday I will execute this with a tight stop at -250 and exit if reaches +1000.

  • molecool

    That's a right – I'm your pimp daddy, pretty boy – LOL :-)

  • rhae

    One more option when playing precious metals…. Buy/Sell then Pray

  • molecool

    For you I throw in a romantic night with a German megalomaniac of your choice – hehe…

  • C.C. Rider

    Rhino here! Shorts shouldn't get all giddy just yet. When the trend breaks, I'll let you know. Until then I've gotta few more bears to gore! KATZO!! WHERE ARE YOU!!!

  • Keirsten

    How 'bout those Lakers? 😀
    (ducking)

  • C.C. Rider

    The best team money can buy, other than the NY Yankees! LOL!!

  • C.C. Rider

    Siver looks like it just corrected in a B wave, next up would be Wave C to 26ish. I'm thinking of jumping on the long train.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr

  • ropey

    Fujisan/Anna, couple of questions on RIMM.

    I'm weighing up putting on a BF tomorrow for 85/90/95 – it can double by friday and rimm can be in a reasonable range
    I may also put on a debit put spread as a hedge…

    One other thing is the volatility for calendars, i did ok on some earnings trades near opex last time with this – the frontmonth IV is ~118% and july is 70% so potentially this could be a nice earner..esp if the rimm IV stays here or increases..

    Weighing up the risk/reward it seems the BF is the best one here – any reason to choose the VCS over it? Only thing i'm concerned about is legging out of the trade on opex day….

    thanks
    Si

  • molecool

    What B-wave – it barely dropped! LOL

    Anyway, I'll be on the other side of your trades I guess…

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Only cuz of salary cap…. 😛

    Now half a year of non stop slupring of Kobe kObe kobe kobe (puke)…. can't wait for NFL to start…

  • molecool

    Oh – paleeezzze – that would be the death of me. Let's just focus on banking coin for the remainder of the year and we'll be the coolest cats on stage.

  • molecool

    Not the best entry but not horrible either.

  • molecool

    Ahem – please share the love my dearest rats!

  • molecool

    What is this – a pissing contest? I'm your huckleberry!

  • molecool

    Fuck – I had no time to read anything – and now it's already pumpkin time for me….

  • Fujisan

    SLV will come down to 14ish area to complete this correction. I will be a buyer at 14.

  • Fujisan

    I have my 85/90/95 BF on – much better r/r. CVS seems expensive and I don't want to get hit badly when it goes against me.

    I'm thinking about earnings calendar trade as well – depending upon how high RIMM would go before earnings.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Approaching the Thu & Fri lows on EUR/USD.. we could see some action in the futures – both gold/silver as well as equities here… 1.3940 is the area I am looking at.

    As a disclosure I am long 1 /NQ from 1478 since “what seems like centuries and eons”

  • northernlights

    Master Mole,
    I don't know if you are the greatest – but you're damn sure running one of the best blogs.
    I bow in respect for the refined element of classical european (read:German) culture you manage to weave into your analysis!
    Stay cool Mole – don't let any Ned-character take up any space in your mind or soul. They do not reach you to your ancles anyway.
    Thanks for sharing your beautiful work.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Thanks — here’s a look at RIMM as well
    http://tinyurl.com/mt2c7a

  • salvadorveiga

    Rise and shine ladies… !!

    Currencies pretty much selling off… usd strengthening… S&P may tumble today, starting to think my bullish count won't hold on and 928 may be breached…

    Off to my statistics exam….

    For most of you see you guys tomorrow !

  • Kirklandguy

    Oooh, EUR/USD broke under 1.39 – the H&S I was watching got pretty sloppy, but if 1.38 doesn't hold, look out. Oil taking a nice dump, will probably flip long around 70 looking for a bounce, but if that doesn't hold oil is going right back to $65.

    /es keeps selling off, and Europe opens soon. Could we finally break out of this narrow range tomorrow?!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The bounce back up from 1475 is on low volume – very low compared to the volume on move down.. We will see more downside.. 15 min stochastics show some more upside here.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Looks like all those who shorted this evening had stops at 1478.25 or so.. all of them just got hit – quick move up…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    1.3800 will offer some resistance.. but I think we do see that before any move up in EUR/USD..

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    A quick look at RIMM…
    http://tinyurl.com/mt2c7a

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    All the talk I have heard about growing anxiety of fund managers is…well…talk.
    Window dressing thing…..not sure there is any truth to it, I think just maybe another excuse by the Bansta's (which now include what you formerly knew as brokerages), to try to sell product ot people and keep them in the game by putting some bogus rational basis to market movement.

    But, pending verification of actual plans….secondary “offerings” by Banksta's could incenticize the MM to plug money into rallying the market. I used to guess it was like $10B or so to create a huge market rally (say 2%), but I think from recent readings, that maybe only $125M could cause this trick…chump change in the overall scheme of things.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    My pappy alway taught me to respect my elders, so i will respect your work, however, this channel totally rocks.

    (2) 9's down to 2 big channel lines…perfect for tomorrow.

    http://screencast.com/t/3aB8U6F2UnB

  • Niktus

    Many thanks! A great blog entry and many interesting details to reflect about.

  • HardTimes

    Folks, sharing the love means finding the spot in the right column where it says obey, and you can figure out the rest…

    Mole needs revenue to pay the server bills.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    A 9 move and perhap another 9 move on ES….
    Night traders–have a look at this setup

    http://screencast.com/t/5eRhAnx1MRA

  • katzo7

    These women have no clue. They go for the young hard bodies with no experience rather than the older intellectuals with soft curves and plenty of experience.

  • katzo7

    WHoooooaaaaaa, this is what I have been talking about! Europe and Asia also confirming good weakness. Things are looking up for the paws and claws, hooves are running scared across the plains Geronimo chasing on horseback. LOL. Still, things could change in a New York minute.
    Bacon and eggs breakfast, the chicken is involved but the pig is committed.

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    what is your projection? down or up?

  • katzo7

    Heheheheheeh, looks to me like we are slowly slipping into my EW3 down I have been calling for. A wonder to behold! Ever seen a piece of driftwood being marooned on the beach, waves keep on pushing it up higher and higher, then all of a sudden, the tide reverses and goes out? Where is the driftwood? Katzo reaches down and picks it up!

    No CC I am not 100% convinced yet, you still could win the day by having your friends the PPT and Tax Dodge Tim show up to the barbie with the beer. But littl' steps.

    BTW, bears eat filet mignon not hamburgers soon. How you going feel walking around with your steak removed? LOL
    G/L guy, consider coming over to the dark side.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0C2SIZ5qsSQ

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Great post Mole, you and me think a lot alike. Indeed, it is those who define the parameters with words who define history and set its course. This is why media deregulation over the past few years that has allowed MSM to consolidate into just a handful of conglomerates has been so detrimental to the health and wealth of the citizens. But I digress.

    In my blog post today I highlighted Guy Lerner's Dumb Money Indicator. I've been following Guy's indicators for a few years now and the guy (ha, pun!) is generally spot on.

    Here's the post: http://www.srsfinance.com/stock-market-commenta

    This, from Lerner's post speaks volumes:

    “To embrace higher prices with sentiment so extremely bullish, you must embrace the notion that we are in a new bull market. You must embrace the notion that higher oil and higher interest rates don't matter. You must embrace the notion that second derivative growth will lead to real, sustainable growth. You must embrace the notion that our housing and commercial real estate troubles are all behind us. You must embrace the notion that a PE of 150 on the S&P500 doesn't matter. You must embrace the notion that we can have an economic recovery without any meaningful change in unemployment. And we can go on and on and on….”

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    9 down, 9 down, 9 up

  • Lordted

    Good post Mole… Especially liked the piece on words… Like the man said, “Be wary of words men use them to lie with”

  • woewoe

    Great post Mole.

  • katzo7

    I am giving you a point!

  • katzo7

    I am with ya on this one Fujisan. My longer term charts say gold and silver will be buys soon.

    We will be eating with silver spoons and off of gold plates. Bullion bears will be using plastic.
    Japanese rice art.
    http://s3.amazonaws.com/readers/2008/08/24/0_16

  • springheel_jack

    I was reading some interesting stuff at the weekend that suggested that this might actually be a new bull market and that this is not therefore a bear market rally, with a devasting downleg due sometime in the next few months. I'll be working up a count & posting it for comments.

    Just for a poll here though. How many think that this is a bear market rally & how many think this is a new bull market?

    Regardless i think we are about to correct from here, but that doesn't mean anything longer term per se.

  • thelefteyeguy

    prob doesnt mean much but the futures right now at 928-930 support…still hasnt breached it…so the blue pill isn't confirmed just yet…

  • Osso

    New bull mkt…..???? We shouldnt be rallying, in the 1st. place…and some imagine a NBM….hehehe.
    Reminds me all those discussing & attacking PSchiff, when he was the only one saying the Housing mkt. was going to tank…in 2006. And that Financials like MLynch at 70….was cheap.
    Let them do it with their money…we always need bulltards.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Hey guys (and girls) :-) I am not shorting till I see a gap fill.

  • Osso

    The real world/economy will certainly not allow for ridiculous interest rates (meaning low)….and the fantasyland in which the BB,TG and others are calling is destined to fail miserably…Might take some time.
    Remember the toxic assets……..have they vanished..???? And the accounting policies..???
    This is a fake-built scenario.
    Interest rates up, dollar up. Deflation…..the Primary wave.

  • springheel_jack

    Well, it goes without saying on this board at least that current equity valuations look very over-optimistic, and PE ratios at the bottom in March still looked very high compared to bottoms in any comparable bear markets.

    However government action has been unprecedented and it is possible that this vast wall of borrowed money might rent a bubble economy back for a year or so in the short term, at great cost in the longer term. If that is the case we might be looking at a short one to two year cyclical bull market before asset prices get back to reverting to the mean.

    There has obviously been a lot of vapid talk about green shoots & so on in the media. Who here thinks that this might actually be a new cyclical bull market that might persist for over a year?

  • springheel_jack

    I agree, but the whole bubble period was a fantasy, and yet it for persisted quite a while.

    My question is whether gvts can have spent enough to rent the bubble back for another year or so.

  • molecool

    Nice one – thanks!

  • molecool

    Thanks – but not what I meant – ahem…

  • Niktus

    :-) The intention was good, but obviously I misunderstood you.
    Will let others show their love…

  • annamall

    Morning guys & gals! I see you all were busy last night on the blog, thanks for the hair compliment, change is good :-)

    I am hesitant this a.m. about getting all giddy about a leg down just yet, I know OPX week is likely to bounce all over the place. this morning gap might fill right up, so be careful.

    I am still long RIMM and it is not as down much in relation to the tape this a.m. Being a true Crackberry addict, I feel they will do well. G/L today all! :-)

  • Osso

    GLD at 50 ema.

  • lilme

    More info on our shining star of the drug gambles:

    SQNM

    http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/TOP%20

    Full disclosure: I'm out

  • Keirsten

    GS may see a bounce in the 142.65 area this morning, but we have a potential 5/10 EMA cross/under just inches away on the daily chart fwiw. G/L Rats.

  • alphahorn

    thx, been in and out GS, looking for another entry, i just feel better when i'm short GS

  • alphahorn
  • lilme

    Good read – Joseph Stiglitz on the world economic crisis –

    http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/200

  • Yux

    Interesting TIC reading.. 11.2B compared to 58.1B forecast. Well at least it is still positive numbers.

  • Keirsten

    You and me both Alpha. LOL Also still short X, BIDU, RIMM, OIH and POT over here from Friday, may need to do some fancy footwork going into the bell though, as the 60 min chart looks a bit oversold here. Keeping an eye on SLB for a potential short at some point soon.

  • alphahorn

    i'm watching the home builders they led the decline in nov and seem to be here, will probably short at least one of them after i see what this market has in store today

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Alpha- I'll keep an eye on SRS for some scalping then. Forgot to mention ICE- Should see some initial support at the 20, but fell below the 10 this morning.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Things looking pretty weak. Not taking any more long positions. Still didnt break through the lows though

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I am seeing potential for a bounce, but im not sure if that will happen. The stoch is looking for upside on /es though

    http://screencast.com/t/ogFrmnzgU

  • annamall

    LMOL

  • katzo7

    K,
    I saw the EW5 tops in AAPLl but you nailed the analysis of the who, what, where, why, how.
    Nice call.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Me too.
    Silver to under $10?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Great another choppy day .Grrrrrrrrrrr

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You sure know how to get my attention – LOL :-))

  • Vendrell

    I say we fill the gap and head higher. I've purchased a decent-sized position of June 930 calls.

  • alphahorn

    interesting start we've taken out the bottom of the wedge. and all the indicators have turned bearish, still need to take out 927.97 to confirm more downside. some like daneric were calling for a down opening then a bounce, we'll see, it is also confirming the bearish wave count that i posted yesterday, that this might be wave 3 down after wave 2 on friday

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • annamall

    I concur

  • salvadorveiga

    oh man i feel sleepy…

    i think im going for a nap, my brain is all tired LOL

    warn me whenever S&P reaches 400 will ya?

    now seriously, what's the take on S&P today? It looks another choppy day… isnt this month triple witching ?

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Katz. 😉

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Good morning anna!

  • Callie

    Nice avatar…I just finished watching season 7…actually felt sorry for Shane.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Lets see a gap fill. I would really like that.
    927 barely holding on.

  • annamall

    Hi V8!

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning beautiful rats and katzo.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    welp there it goes… time to short!

  • katzo7

    These are my thoughts, don't usually like to say anything during amateur hour though, but I will. Look at the 60 SPX and see what the MACD did. This is exactly what I thought would happen and have been pretty vocal about it. Note the almost kiss, but not quite of the two MACD lines and a turn around and down facing move. Very telling and next IMHO, it will break the zero line. Once that happens, it is pretty much all over. It has kissed the zero and bounced off, next IMO it goes and stays below.

    Also note on the 15 min. chart that the sideways movement after the EW3 down (time was 10 am Friday, low was 935.66) went searching for an EW4 up, it was a prolonged sideways movement. This gave every opportunity to TaxCheatTimmy to muster his PPT into action. But they were MIA, being in the Hamptons.

    IMO, limit exposure to longs.

  • thelefteyeguy

    O.O look out below…

  • alphahorn

    update on my wave count this is sure looking like a wave 3 down, of course wave 4 low still needs to be taken out, but we are awfully close

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • anthem

    katzo, I think we had this discussion last week sometime about the same thing. That recently they've been waiting for the MACD to touch and then jamming it the other way. That if you want a confirmation you better wait until the MACD actually crosses and not anticipate it going. . . Really kills potential entry points though.

  • standard_and_poor

    Wait for pullback if inclined to short. I'm flat and may go long as we're in bottom of range. Be patient eitherway. I'll be back with appropriate tune.
    U2 or Happy Mondays?

  • thelefteyeguy

    it's like magic for you…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We need to go through 925 on SPX.IF not, we will continue in this evil chop zone.Everyone looses if we do

  • annamall

    Hey guys here is one of my favorite songs (Annamall I have become :-D)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbHn1Pgj6Zk

  • annamall

    careful here V8! we will get a bounce.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Sold off most of my long positions for a hell of a loss. Looking for 917-920 on /ES

  • annamall

    Hi sweetie

  • bsummertime

    new pic, nice, long rimm, short s& p's

  • anthem

    damn. . . really hate it when everything goes well but GS doesn't participate. . . fall damnit. . .

    anyhow, my GS shorts are pretty much dead even but anyone who has been holding GOOG puts the last two weeks should be doing great. Those puts are seriously in the money for me from two weeks ago. Hope others caught it as well.

    Looking for a rebound on RIMM, but just hoping it treads water right now. . .

  • katzo7

    We have a member, WOEWOE, who I think is fairly new. I for one would like to welcome her with open arms into our blogging community. WOEWOE, where are you located? In or near the Northeast I hope?

    signed, katzo
    the ES welcoming committee (an unauthorized but nevertheless, important part of our community)

  • Keirsten

    Covered RIMM, et al, waiting for long scalp.

  • Vendrell

    Thanks. It's my favorite show ever (with Shane as my favorite character). The last several episodes of Season 7 are some of the best writing ever (I love keeping track of just how many balls in the air the writers are effortlessly juggling).

  • alphahorn

    short TOL @ 17.01 target 14ish

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Wow… IWM is hard to borrow on ToS now. Thats nuts

  • katzo7

    Look at the steepness of MACD line on the 60. This may be one very sick puppy.

  • annamall

    Did you see mine S&P? song?

  • onorio

    Im still long an in red now, looking for a gap fill (partial) for switch to short, no way i short this at this point.

  • katzo7

    Hi sweetie.

  • alphahorn

    watch the RSI 14 on the 15 min SPX if it doesn't break below 30 we are likely to get a bounce here

  • annamall

    here 's the bounce coming. You bailed too soon baby!

  • standard_and_poor

    Some days are dry, some days are leaky
    Some days come clean, other days are sneaky
    Some days take less, but most days take more
    Some slip through your fingers and onto the floor

    Some days you're quick, but most days you're speedy
    Some days you use more force than is necessary
    Some days just drop in on us
    Some days are better than others

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfm0nGiN46o

  • annamall

    Hey sistah!

  • katzo7

    Now, the natural tendency is to want to play a bounce here. If this is real, MMs may not let you profit. Not a time to try to be too cute right here IMHO. Disclaimer-I hate MMs, PPT, and GS.

    EW3 now on the 60 min. timeframe, A WONDER TO BEHOLD.

    I may be wrong on this as there is one indicator I use that builds a big question in my mind.

  • thelefteyeguy

    +1…if it bounces…we are back on the channel lol

  • rhae

    I think there is a good chance that SPX 925.60 will be tagged today…

  • standard_and_poor

    Long 930.29. stop at day low.

  • Keirsten

    I'd be careful getting short “er” here if you're a daytrader/scalper, as we're awfully oversold on the 60 min.

  • annamall

    agreed!

  • ropey

    GOOG is pretty oversold on the daily and near the 50% fib may nibble at a spec long ( yeah i know i'm mad ) – i see the absolute bottom on this current run around the 414-415 area – 7 days down in a row- gutfeel says opex 420 but we'll see…(also relying on the SPY gap fill to occur before opex aswell )…

  • amgrant

    It's beginning to look at a lot like Xmas…

    Shorting this market is as easy as winning an election in Iran.

    I think this 930-ish area holds…for today.

  • katzo7

    Just in fairness, I'd be careful going long too at this point. Traders should IMO just let this settle out.

  • thelefteyeguy

    nice

  • amgrant

    I concur.

  • standard_and_poor

    That's the katzo I know.

  • anthem

    ropey, No idea of where the low is, but my stops are getting tighter and tighter during this drop. It's been a great run so far on these puts but you are correct – I think its around 415ish for opex. If it falls through that – then we're looking down into the 380's I think which I doubt will happen.

  • Osso

    RUT broke support at 515…

  • Keirsten

    Agree Katzo and good reminder- I'm looking to reload shorts depending. Lots of chipped/broken daily charts now. Weeeeee! LOL

  • thelefteyeguy

    “Shorting this market is as easy as winning an election in Iran”…good one..

  • onorio

    cool, lets go back to the whipsaw zone!

  • amgrant

    I'm feeling good today. Took the weekend off to refresh and I'm so ready to kick some ass.

  • Keirsten

    AAPL is now trying to cling to the 20 EMA, the 5 is diving under the 10 EMA on the daily. 133.50 is swing high support.

  • katzo7

    I cannot look at this! Can't you put a pic of a Porsche or maybe a cat on instead? Member, I am the MOVIO officer and do not want to give you one.

  • Keirsten

    You must have had sunbreaks over there? 😉

  • standard_and_poor

    Sexy thang welcome to our community , I'll check it out.

  • alphahorn

    i have to disagree, i'm adding to shorts, we broke the bottom trendline boundary of the wave 4 triangle and its now acting as resistance. also, the key indicators are still pointing down, wave 3 has some more legs to it. wave 4 scalp will come but not yet, imho

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • katzo7

    I am getting 917.45 SPX as the 200 day MA on the 60. Wonder if they will park it there today or tomorrow.
    'member the 918 level I posted last week?

  • alphahorn

    keep an eye on the $BKX, it's looking week, watch the RSI and the slow stoch (60,3) for breaks below 50 and 80 respectively, if this happens, load the boat with FAZ

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • divergence

    This is the first day in many many where they have not already hit the dip.

  • rhae

    SPX 120m looking very struggly to me….
    http://screencast.com/t/xMME7ANtUto

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Going long FAS

  • divergence

    Went long BKE a few minutes ago. Looks like possible double bottom on daily, easy stop if I'm wrong.

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning sweetness! Keep an eye on katzo he seems frisky today.

    ________________________________

  • annamall

    Tu mucho loco! :-)

  • MaxPainMan

    triangle on the 10min /ES… which way will she go?

  • annamall

    Apple trying to turn green if it does we may see a move up.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    BKX looks bullish to me lol..Do the opposite in what you see :)

  • katzo7

    Thnx

  • katzo7

    Where is he from?

  • springheel_jack

    I'm adding to shorts as well.

    I think that we are starting a 5% to 10% correction here and that we could see a meltdown this afternoon.

  • divergence

    SRS long signal teetering on confirmation 9, 39 X on 15 minute.

  • springheel_jack

    I'm cautiously adding to shorts here. I see limited upside potential today & a significant possibility that we will correct sharply this afternoon.

  • amgrant

    Ya, we did…about time. Did 3 vineyard tours over the weekend. So relaxing…feel refreshed. Cloudy though today…you've been here, so I'm sure you'd know 😉

  • katzo7

    Stay away girl!

  • amgrant

    Vancouver, BC. Land of (almost) constant rain.

  • divergence

    Confirmed.

  • rhae

    Scalps everywhere… many hanging on falling knives

  • Keirsten

    HA! When I lived on Puget Sound I had moss growing in the crevices on my car's sunroof. 😀

  • alphahorn

    long FAZ @ 4.50 lol!!!!

  • Keirsten

    Yep- they'll try to save the 20 EMA here.

  • amgrant

    I've got a final target of 900 on this impulse down. 915 on the conservative side. Will be exiting a good chunk there as a precaution. Don't think the bulls will give up that easily…or will they????

  • alphahorn

    hate to say i told you so, but hey

  • standard_and_poor

    Stopped for under 3 point loss. Waiting for another long entry.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good luck..SPX coming to the important 925 level..I expect a bounce now ..I hope lol

  • katzo7

    Well, look what we have here. All I had to do was to scroll to the top of this blog page.
    mole le cool said, “I can’t help but feeling increasingly giddy this weekend as the smell of free falling equities is in the air.”

  • innatedc

    Yep we hit your target of 927….good job alpha…I am close to looking at a 5 bagger on Soybean futures of all things and my es's are working nicely…..

  • katzo7

    Nooo S&P, just hold off. Please, don't give the f**kers your $$.

  • rhae

    925.61 my big line tagged, that was quick… I do not know now but do not think would get aggressive until momo slows or whatever it is going to do?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    really boring market
    Mole – come on – come out of the cave
    Lord – give me strength to hold my 18wheeler of puts

  • springheel_jack

    We have blue confirmation now I think.

    What are your targets here alphahorn? I'm looking for a sharp correction that might hit 880 on SPX.

    OPEX week is likely to make this a strange week though. I'd like to see a 5% drop today & I think that might happen.

  • amgrant

    Wow, didn't really expect this to happen…we may hit my target well before I anticipated.

  • thelefteyeguy

    another strong day for you…

    nice

  • amgrant

    BTW, the reason I have 900 as a target is because I expect a correction similar in magnitude as the one we had 5/8 to 5/ 13 (about 45 SPX cash points)…projecting from Friday's close of 946 gives 900 as well.

    Gotta love symmetry.

  • thelefteyeguy

    nice post below on the support levels…dead on right now…

  • katzo7

    Anybody watching the VIX? See that nice gap up?

  • rhae

    I have no solid support lines in the SPX 60m, so it might shoot for the old gap from a couple of weeks ago about 920 to close

  • alphahorn

    for those dying for a bounce, it's really simple from here, SPX 15 min chart RSI 14 must break back above 30

  • katzo7

    Thnx. Sometimes I can see it (when PPT is not around) and sometimes I cannot
    TLEG.

  • thelefteyeguy

    wow….that's a lot of soya sauce…lol

  • amgrant

    You guys want to see the headline on June 5 in my local area??

    Unreal with the timing.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/06/toppy-shall-

  • springheel_jack

    Very interesting. We could see some real action today.

    People have forgotten what a real impulse slide down looks like.

  • alphahorn

    i own a ton of $VIX calls and have added to them today

  • thelefteyeguy

    almost busted gap support…

  • katzo7

    YOU got that right SHJack.

  • katzo7

    Niose (sic). LOL

  • thelefteyeguy

    hmm…hope they cashed out ^^

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Dollar up big too.

  • rhae

    I agree 900 is also Regression Channel Support from the complete March run up…However, my statistical analysis chart projects lower 870 or so

  • alphahorn

    i'm looking for the sam 878-880

  • salvadorveiga

    cannot see… country restrictions :(

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    ahhh it’s a great song!

  • alphahorn

    ok wave 3 looks like it might be done. if this is wave 4 it should be a simple abc correction, since wave 2 ws such a mess, so we should see wave 5 today

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    No offense, but …it is not about being right – it is about being right and making money.
    You ARE making money – aren't you?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    thank you summertime (smiling) :-)

  • amgrant

    Covered a good piece of my shorts. I am being conservative until we break 880.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    tmeframe?

  • Vendrell

    Target around SPX 930, or you getting something else?

  • rhae

    I doubt if any holding burnt up IRA/401K accounts have

  • rhae

    I doubt if any holding burnt up IRA/401K accounts have

  • amgrant

    A love the cliches. Yes.

  • katzo7

    What a f**king team we have here, everything is covered, from EWs (alpha, katzo, and others) to the dollar (who just responded to me on that?), to the fly girls, to the VIX to gold.
    SHJack, amgrant, rhea, david, inna, and forgive me if I missed you, a f**king well oiled machine. All under mole's guidance.
    How can the f**king market win against us. LOL
    PS now time for the PPT to show. LOL

  • rhae

    Tomorrows shoe shine boys

  • thelefteyeguy

    do you expect wave 4 to hit 932?

  • standard_and_poor

    Agree, possible change of plan, drop had some serious momentum behind it.

    ________________________________

  • alphahorn

    time to buy FAZ is NOW!!!!, big house dear friend i think you're on the wrong side.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • thelefteyeguy

    woah…wave 3 might be continuing…

  • Osso

    UUp b/out…over 24. 26

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • springheel_jack

    Oil falling back through 70. Looks like that inverse H&S on the USD may well play out. Mole's intermediate target is 84 but it may well go higher.

    Like many bears here I have been disappointed too often lately to think this is a big equities reversal though. Does anyone here think we might see 850 soon?

    If the answer is no, is that not a sign of excessive bullishness?

  • katzo7

    Look at the levels I posted below, write them down!
    See, I called 6,066 tops and I was right!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “cliches”? Respectfully disagree – those are RULES :)

  • amgrant

    I'll respectfully disagree as well. Trading is neither about being right, nor being wrong. Mind you that is a cliche too.

  • MrTrader

    Thank you for taking the time out of your weekend to put together such an entertaining and excellent piece of writing & financial analysis!

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net MrTrader

    Thank you for taking the time out of your weekend to put together such an entertaining and excellent piece of writing & financial analysis!