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Solid Kick Off
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Solid Kick Off

by The MoleJanuary 5, 2017

Given that it was only the second session of the year plus a dreaded FOMC day I’d say we are kicking off the season as well as anyone could ask for. But let’s remain cautions for now as it’s easy to get caught up in the early excitement, which often leads to a major smack down towards mid-January.2017-01-05_silver_entry

Yesterday’s theme was a binary silver entry and it today appears that we may be getting the short sell scenario. However I’m not seeing a convincing RTV-S formation just yet and have decided to use the overnight spike low as our entry threshold. Stop would be placed above 16.8 – if it pushes above it then precious metals may attempt to make a run for it.

2017-01-05_copper_update

Yesterday’s long campaign in copper is looking pretty damn good right now and I’ve decided to advance my stop to the break/even mark. If she’s going to run then most likely it’ll happen before the week is over.

2017-01-05_crude_update

Now if you aren’t long crude right now then you only have yourself to blame because for some mysterious reason you weren’t a subscriber yet (or snoozed which is worse). May I humbly suggest that you remedy the situation post haste before reading on?

Anyway, if you took it then good for you and you may now do what I just did, which is to pad yourself on the shoulder for pulling the trigger in the perfect spot and then move your stop to the break/even mark.

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By the way, only 31 more days until Super Bowl LI! Unfortunately it’s almost impossible for me to catch the game live over here in Europe. Does anyone happen to know how to watch it online?


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Anyone watching any pro football playoffs? If you are, you gotta
    watch this Saturday afternoon, 4:20PM EST (ESPN/ABC?). The Raiders/Texans Wild Card
    game. The Raiders lost their star QB, Derek Carr – broke his fibula a
    couple weeks ago. The backup QB, Matt McGloin got hurt at the end of the
    2nd qtr last week and the 3rd string rookie came in for
    him. That 3rd string rookie is Connor Cook, former Michigan
    State QB in 2013,14,15…the winningest QB in Mich St history. He was a 4th
    round draft pick this year and hasn’t suited up for a game ALL YEAR…until this
    past Saturday. The Raiders lost, but it wasn’t his fault. In the
    Super Bowl Era, no one has had their first NFL start in
    a playoff game before. He’s played in a number of high pressure bowl games
    before and should have the stuff to not make a fool of himself this week…we’ll
    see. (I’m an MSU Spartan parent, so I’m kinda partial)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what is this? the sport channel forum?

    MSU, let’s see if this passes the censors.

    http://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/889/437/437889.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    You could hear the collective crush of hope out of Oakland all the way to San Francisco when Carr went down….liked there chances with him…

    Miners are all in on Mole’s SI pick.

    GORO has been a beast the last week..

  • ridingwaves

    Added NG long

  • saltwaterdog

    inventory #s in 15min

  • ridingwaves

    the beat down after the last 2 huge draw down weeks seems like a canard….

    observation-TVIX is up with VIX down, haven’t seen that in a while, not trading off it or anything but noted…

    miners are crushing it right now…coming up to Mole’s take off number for SI
    could be dollar related

  • ZigZag
  • AcoBrasil

    TVIX is an ETN, which means the underwriters can issue more notes whenever they feel like it. This means that price is only loosely based on VIX futures and can occasionally diverge.

    UVXY, an ETF, is already abstract enough. I try to steer clear from ETNs.

    http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0213/etf-or-etn-whats-the-difference.aspx

  • saltwaterdog

    on the 61.8 … 3.02 basis Feb (daily) is the 76.4% retrace exactly at the Nov gap

  • ridingwaves

    Definitely not trading it but I watch it for anomalies

  • AcoBrasil

    Yeah, I know. I just like to throw that lesson out there whenever somebody brings up TVIX.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup – and THAT is why I was waiting for a proper RTV plus spike low breach 😉

  • ridingwaves

    I see it now, it just filled the 3.20 gap…to fill that gap at 3.00 will be painful…

  • Yoda

    No mention of Bucky being kicked in the nuts today?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You just mentioned it.

  • ridingwaves

    Hey, even Romans had to have some gladiator fun…..I actually like College football better and really enjoyed the Rose bowl game….Action Jackson thru-out

  • StockTalker

    Crude on my radar now. Nice sell off

  • ridingwaves

    energy sector must have been a crowded trade or something…drawdowns are leading to beat downs…..the david copperfield sector

  • StockTalker

    See what happens at gap fill

  • ridingwaves

    the anomaly played out..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Hey GG, how goes the battle? :)

  • ridingwaves

    seems lots of markets are full of traps at the start of the year…..

  • ridingwaves

    BL, so good to see your comment….hope all is well and trading is treating you good…
    and your patriots are in again….

  • Yoda

    Good to see you back BL! Still trading?

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks RW. :) I’ve been lurking here occasionally and have read a lot of your comments. It’s good to see you doing so well.

    I’m still hanging in there on the trading front and have been basically a one trick pony with oil. Although I am stalking the long bond as well as thinking that the small cap (Russell) is going to be a hell of a short some day. :)

    I’m still loving the Patriots. Although anything can happen in the playoffs, I’m liking their chances of making it to the big dance.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Take what you can, give nothing Back!
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Yoda. :)

    I’m still in the game. But I’ve trimmed my trading activity down quite a bit. Like I said to RW, I’ve been concentrating mostly on Oil but have also been stalking TLT and the Russell. These three are about all I can handle for now. I’m still striving for swings that last more than a few days and hopefully a few weeks. I only need to check my charts twice a day. And at 4PM EDT, I’m done for the day. Forex was a lot of fun but I felt that most of the price action of what I wanted to trade in Forex happened while I was supposed to be sleeping so it gradually took its toll and became not a good fit for me. Futures are the fairest trade of them all but they are not something that I could enjoy trading with scared money.

    So basically I found it better for me to stay within both my ability and comfort zones. This way I can continue to love the game instead of trying to do too many things that are beyond my ability and begin to hate it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    for you Russell fans,
    a small and peculiar effect from double bottoms. double-tops!
    226 days apart.
    calm down, I’m not calling a top. well..seductive it is. but I’m not. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d41363b9f028c221b4e88f83319350cda892c59881f21783850c9648d47c7e1.png

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Hey BL good t osee you again. I’ve also trimmed back my trading a lot.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    Teaser!
    What don’t we just call it the “January booking profits” effect.

  • Yoda

    golden

  • Yoda

    Very good it sounds to me. To make coin in trading, focused one needs to remain.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Greenlander.

    Hopefully this is a good move for both of us.

    OTOH, I was just thinking about Skynard who used to do Multiple Trades a day EVERYDAY. If I tried to do that now, someone would probably have to carry me out of my office on a stretcher. :)

  • Yoda

    VWAP better hold, failing that we may see some fireworks during the last hour.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    China rocking. assuming everything goes as planned, taking 1/2 off at first yellow box/ trendline and if it goes above letting the rest ride https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72a0317a2b04d2d11c7daa9498a2a59c5d0f6dc83fe6f59dd23dd51e89fe587f.png

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Don’t like the indexes now. After such a run up seems like high chance of getting mucking into chop chop chop

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I have a busy 9-5, a maniacal toddler, and another lil one coming.

    I was primarily doing short term index trades off of the 1 hr and 2 hr charts and realized it way too much work esp when I will fret about positions even if I am strictly following my RBT. I made the shift a couple months ago to only target big move trades which made me sector hunt as they are sometimes completely hidden within the overall market but it has been well worth it. I suspect that I will run into a dead period this Feb/ Mar where I will be out of the market but I am totally fine with that :)

  • Yoda
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    worried about the Chiefs. They match up well and we have no Gronk

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    downside protection is cheap now

  • Edd

    Hey Bobby!
    At hospital all day, open up ES and thought I hit an old page when seeing your name. Very few days have gone by that I have not wondered how you were doing. Nice to see ya Bobby. Happy New year to you. I hope life is treating you well my friend.

  • BobbyLow

    Assuming we make it to the AFC Championship Game it’s not going to be easy no matter what. But if it is KC then I’m glad this game will be played at Gillette and not at Arrowhead in KC. If it’s the Steelers it’s hard to beat a good team twice in the same season. The rest of the hunt comes down to any given Sunday (or Saturday) etc. So I’m cautiously optimistic but never take anything for granted.

    Fortunately we still haveTE Bennett. WR’s Amendola and Mitchell should be back along with Edelman, Hogan and now Floyd who looks like a keeper if he can stay sober. We should be OK.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Saw him push a stroller in B.H. a few years back – he even looked worse then so this is an improvement.

  • Yoda
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for your kind words Edd. :) Life is treating me very well.

    Happy New Year to you and yours and I hope things are OK after being at the hospital all day.

  • BobbyLow

    I found that the toughest thing for me to do is to sit on my hands after an extended move has been in place for awhile and I wanted to join in late. Most of the times that I’ve chased, I’ve been burned just like a little kid touching a hot stove.

    Having the patience to wait for a potential reversal is something that I have to do going forward and will also leads to slack time. But I have to constantly remind myself that cash is a position too.

    I was trading off dailies for awhile but I found that this wasn’t maximizing my effort so I compromised and went to 195 Minute Charts that give me two candles per day. This way I get into trades a little quicker as they develop and get out a little quicker as they begin to fall apart. I think that perhaps the only perfect time frame is the one that is a clear fit to the user’s lens.

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, congrats on your children. Enjoy them being little while you can.

    My oldest is pushing 50. I know you’ve heard this many times before but “Time does Fly”. :)

  • Ronebadger

    I thought I got rid of all my daughter’s “questionable” pics….

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I am using the daily for setups and sharpening the entries w the 2 hr chart. When I was on the 1 + 2 hr was way too much tracking and maintenance for me

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    U in this? If so congrats.

  • ridingwaves

    Bobby, sorry had to run earlier today. I think that focus is so much of what makes you a better trader…..I too have whittled my trades….still dabbling in risk but at different pace now……

    I would say the Patriots are the favorite with Dallas the same in the NFC….
    fun part of football season is now…so I’m watching a little bit more closely..

    Cheers

  • Yoda

    yes but from 32 only

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Ha that’s the level where I was accumulating and got flushed out on FOMC

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Oh I got my fair share of flushes on this one during the last quarter attempting to pick a bottom.

  • Ronebadger

    The new “Widow Maker”?

  • AcoBrasil

    Any triple-leveraged ETNs available? :)