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That Vexing VIX
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That Vexing VIX

by The MoleAugust 8, 2010

This weekend I have a special kind of treat for all you VIX charting aficionados. I have been playing with VIX ratio and correlation charts for months now but my recent effort began a few weeks ago with this chart:

Strangely it took a few days to see the obvious and the scales finally fell of my eyes earlier this week. The SPX:VIX ratio in comparison with the plain old vanilla SPX seems to be a pretty reliable purveyor of things to come – I think the markers above convey the idea. Of course me being Mole I couldn’t just leave things at such a simplistic level – so let’s take things up a notch or two.

That first chart seemed pretty promising and I made a comment that I would love to see the distance between these two signals plotted as a histogram – just like what you get on a MACD. So an intrepid reader you know as Tooncez sent me an email the next day with a ThinkScript concoction that plotted those two signals as a MACD, which was a great start. Gee – thanks a bunch for sucking me into yet another script hacking project, Tooncez! 😉

However, there were some problems with the left chart conversion (think conversion from one chart into the numeric scope of another) and I was able to offer a good fix for that. And after some closer inspection it seemed that a full MACD was complete overkill and that I was mainly interested in the diff between the two signals. I wound rewriting it a few more times and the current version is shown below:

Now, this is actually the hourly version containing a bit more medium term detail. As you can see I have also added a ‘ratio left chart’ version above which is similar to what we get in the original stockcharts version. However, it’s got the advantage of offering real time feeds and other more fine tuned settings I am able to add (i.e. SMA, BBs, etc.). On the lower panel you see what I was mainly looking for, which is the diff between those two signals. And that gives us distinct clues as to the state of the current trend in its particular time frame.

Here is the daily version, which seems to deviate a bit from the stockchart version shown first. That’s obviously related to the style of data conversion I am performing from the SPX:VIX ratio into the SPX chart space. Nevertheless the cross overs are pretty interesting and I’ll keep fiddling with the conversion to work better on the longer term chart.

Another VIX related chart – the SPXA200 relative to the VIX – I showed that one a few weeks ago as it seems to map the overall trend quite nicely. Instead of showing a moving average I am using a zigzag to avoid over-averaging but at the same time I am able to smooth out a lot of the in-between noise. Just think of it as ‘connect the dots averaging’ instead of using a moving average. Doesn’t always work but often shows some very interesting patterns. Great for detecting momentum fractals if you ask me.

What I’m seeing here is that we seem to push into the ‘roll over’ phase of the current correction on a long term basis. Which means what it means – we may push into 1150 or higher to complete the current wave pattern, but this thing is definitely running out of steam. Nevertheless, to be more confident we want to see the MACD roll over pretty soon here.

Another VIX related chart – the $NYMO (i.e. the medium term McClellan) in relation to the VIX. That is actually one of my favorite charts as it seems to be pretty spot on when it comes to calling reversals on both sides. However, it’s been a bit lacking on the short side since the end of Primary {1} – let’s hope that changes soon.

The yellow highlight marks what remains in terms of potential upside here. But it’s not guaranteed that we push all the way into 2.8 – we have come a long way since the early June extreme and this thing may start rolling over soon. However, bear in mind that this indicator is often early, especially on the short side, so allow for more upside and the conclusion of Soylent Green.

Okay, no VIX involved here – it’s my NYMO:BPNYA ratio chart – basically medium term in relation to the long term trend. And boy, did we shoot into the sky in late July. I am glad to see this thing fall to the downside again, which may indicate that a top in equities is near. A by saying near I mean we may rally for another week or so before equities are ready to give it up to the bears.

You probably remember this chart – it shows the number of SPX symbols above their 50-day SMA. I have various other renditions of this but the more purist version seems to agree with the two prior charts in that equities are running out of steam which is suggested by an increase in distribution and a narrowing of symbols that hold up the index as a whole.

Which brings me to a chart that was instrumental in suggesting a bear trap in early July – the NYSE Volume ratio chart. The proof is always in the volume after all. It’s just that this thing is often tough to read, which is why I mostly am on the lookout for divergences. And again, it seems that the upside volume is diminishing. We had that big snapback after the extremely low reading of <0.7 and since then it’s been sideways to down.

But again – prior examples suggest that quite some time can pass between a divergent reading and the actual roll over, which is why we only use this in the context of other charts and supporting indicators.

And here’s the chart that is quickly turning into my favorite medium term trend indicator – the smoothed daily Zero. Which perplexes me by stubbornly pointing up. Quite frankly – a lot of the pundits have now embraced the short term bullish scenario, which is why I was actually hoping for a divergent reading (yes, I love to stick it to the competition). Unfortunately this indicator seems to agree with the pundits – unless of course the market somehow pulls a fast one on all of us. After all, no indicator is infallible, which is why I always look at my entire collection before forming an opinion.

And here’s my opinion piece – the wave count for next week and beyond. Soylent Green remains my preferred scenario – there are two ways of how to count that ending diagonal thus I am leaving a door open for a top around 1150. However, chances are this bitch of a market will fake out both sides again by pushing a wee bit higher into 1165 – not guaranteed but be prepared for that to happen. That should however be the end of it as we are running out of time in the time cycle.

Soylent Blue still has a theoretical chance but we would have to turn starting Monday morning – if we push beyond Friday’s highs then this one goes to the big junk yard of Elliott wave counts.

Bottom Line:

The market is getting closer to rolling over but I do expect a bit more upside before it happens. Stay frosty and don’t try to pick a top – leave that to the crystal ball pushers – we stainless steel rats strictly focus on probabilities and place our trades accordingly. And if the odds are unclear we simply stay out of the market until the situation becomes more transparent. After all this market has become very sophisticated in faking out even the most savviest of traders – we had to step up our game to stay ahead.

Don’t let the tape’s wild gyrations get the better of you and stay frosty. As of late I am seeing a significant amount of exhaustion in particular among bearish participants. In the past few days I have come across various rants on the inadequacies of Elliott wave, critical opinion pieces demonizing Prechter and EWI, frustrated comments regarding the never ending manipulations by the FED, the fear of a looming QE 2.0, etc. Fortunately most of that has been missing on Evil Speculator, which is something I am intensely proud of. Instead of capitulation we chose to use the past 16 months as a learning experience – we developed a whole slew of market indicators that have kept us from getting cut to pieces at various setups that turned out to be nothing but nasty bear traps.

The moaning and complaining you see across the board mostly comes from market participants who still rely on trading strategies that may have worked a few years ago but are now ancient history. And I am not just talking about retail traders – several large funds have been throwing in the towel recently after their trading strategies have repeatedly been taken to the woodshed by a growing number of HFT bots. The lesson learned?

Evolve or be extinct!

Well, that’s a pretty easy question, right?

Thank you for flying Evil Speculator. Now buckle up – we expect the ride ahead to be bumpy.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • WTFed

    Thanks Mole. The scope and thoughtfulness of your analysis is worth every penny.

  • convictscott

    Hell motherfucking yes! Outstanding post, and I agree in every way with the outlook.

    My highest probability outcome is a *bit* more strength, but the market is in the process of rolling over.

    No top picking, sit back and see how it all works out. Probably wont get a trade on at all this week until it resolves.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    The Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse (Good charts, please visit and comment)

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

    I have my own version of the VIX on there…..check it out.

  • yudhisthira

    Once again well balanced with no promises.
    Just the facts. Thanks Mole.
    Will stay frosty in the face of fake-outs both ways.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Good evening Boss Mole

    As a freeloader hamster I just see the first chart, but DO throw in at least 2 hamsters (bollinger Bands), the 13,2.618 daily and the the 208,2.618 (also daily) … as i asked when we were under 1065 “do we turn here or do we have to go to SPX:VIX 50?”

    Now if the SMA208 can't hold it… you know the drill, assume the position and kiss your short ass goodbye.

  • BobbyLow

    Great Job on all the charts Mole,

    I've noticed a lot of blogs looking for another bounce up (some larger than others). I also read on Friday that one poster was talking about a CNBC Carnival Barker saying “you just have to close your eyes and buy”. I think that kind of speaks for itself.

    If you don't mind, I've got a question for you. I think you were holding December and or March Puts and if so are you still holding them?

  • BullandBear

    The Vix is a very misunderstood index.
    It's amazing how much coverage it gets in the Blogosphere.
    Simply amazing.

  • ablebonus

    Beautiful work Mole, thanks.

  • http://twitter.com/PurpleDrankUSA Purple Drank Party

    Get some purple drank on and buy that VXX

  • SW6

    Mole, the charts are excellent as are your explanations. Your take on the psychology of market participants is also golden. You've got every reason to be proud of Evil Speculator and all the rats who frequent this board. Thanks.

  • convictscott

    Coming into the european session seeing strength coming in across the board. ES futures and AUDJPY starting to climb.

    IMO this reduces the odds of soylent blue somewhat.

  • Bob the Horse

    Morning all, just added to estoxx short on this crazy strong open (+1.5%!)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    careful Bob, if this level fails I see 3 scenarios, one has spx:vix rising 20% (and that's the good one), the other sees a double top at 1220's (still nice) … the third is a bear's nightmare

  • Bob the Horse

    gotta pay to play. this is FOMC week and it's going to be tough for both sides as expectations are so high – other than more QE, I don't really see equities holding at these levels but we'll see. I'll take a firm decision by next week but until then just grit my teeth.

  • convictscott

    If theres one thing I'm sure of… Bob runs his own race.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don't give that much of a chance at this point.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are working hard to stay ahead of the curve – best to be nimble and not to get married to one outlook. If the tape wants to go higher we ride along and try to grab a few pennies on the way up.

    It's not that complicated though – as soon as this market is ready to drop it will let us know. Anyway thanks for the kind words.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes and if I don't see this tape roll over by the 20th I will cover or roll into more theta.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and I respect him for that, but i just mentioned the scenarios I see right now, we all do trade our own trades

  • convictscott

    Agree – Probabilities dropping as we speak. Daily highs breached in copper and AUDJPY… strong close on Aussie market, strong open in Europe. If this was the start of a 3 of 3…. well its inconsistent with that, which leaves the test of 1131 spx and see how it handles that… I'll be watching market internals closely around that level.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and tighten your equide backside 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW boss, did you see my comment about spx:vix and the bb(208,2.618)?

  • Bob the Horse

    i agree the bear case looks technically unlikely but fundamentally, it is the most likely. Always a bit of a guessing game as to when markets reflect fundamentals but this FOMC meeting is a likely event. 2007 was very much like this – markets carried on for a very long time before the penny finally dropped, then they fell like a stone. Sep is more likely to be the big down month than Aug but you never know.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Bob, fundamentaly, technicaly, we had a very strong case for a drop almost a year ago.

    we had a nice case going when we had the 5th of may, but then the absence of folllow through dented it a lot.

    I'm still short, but regreting I didn't cover some/most when we had the Vix spike (in fact i don't know why i stayed short after vix went below 24)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole,

    Put a CPVWAP on your 180-day chart. It's particularly relevant for /ES right now:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    So is the 0.618 standard deviation on the 1-year daily . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    . . . as well as the CPVWAP on the 3-year weekly . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Cheerio,

    Raised By Wolves

  • Bob the Horse

    That is where I disagree – last July we were only 50% through one of the biggest ever monetary stimulus programs ever. Those are now 100% complete.

    Also, we had just finished the largest ever inventory liquidation – and output was resuming again. Whilst we still don't have a high level of inventories, IP momentum is now negative (though I think it will pick up again towards year-end)

    Also, a year ago, there was fiscal stimulus being thrown at construction, autos, housing. Now that is gone, the Bush tax cuts are expiring (for most), and there is talk of fiscal austerity.

    Basically, the fundamental tailwinds of a year ago are now headwinds. If you have fundamental tailwinds, a technical bearish setup has a high chance of turning into a bear trap. But if you have headwinds, the odds of success are higher.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Let me illustrate what SSH is referring to on ($SPX/$VIX) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • sloth_bear

    the 0.618 standard deviation on the 1-year daily is impressive!
    How do you set this up in TOS?

  • raised_by_wolves
  • sloth_bear

    Nice!

  • sloth_bear

    Mole, thanks for your post!
    Nice to see all your new tools in action!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    cpv? weighted average price I know, but what's cpv?
    .618… a gerbil?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    point taken, the question is … how soon?

    if not right now then latter is much latter

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice cub!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, do you know see why i screamed for 19 all the time?

  • raised_by_wolves

    You got mail.

  • Bob the Horse

    Well, tomorrow is going to be pretty key. If there is no QE, then the dollar is going to have a big rally and equities will tank. Even if there is QE – I'm not convinced there will be a huge rally as markets appear to be expecting it.

  • sloth_bear
  • raised_by_wolves

    Chart Period Volume Weighted Average. ThinkScripter wrote it for me, and I modded the hell out of it with Gerbil-, Hamster-, and Wolf- settings (1.118, 2.118, 3.118).

    Can you/do you want to download the demo version of TOS for charting purposes? Then you could do kick ass charts like mine 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “i know that you know that I know…”

    but the euro:usd is part of the problem IMHO, it went under 1.23 but then rose… and 1.39 still far

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    does it need an account?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    btw I assume those are X.618… adhd again?

  • raised_by_wolves

    You desperately wanted ($SPX/$VIX) to push its lower BB(208,2.618) lower. Maybe it will happen if we fall below this MA(208) now-ish or more likely (?) once, er if we make new highs and touch its upper BB(208,2.618), eh?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    at least a lower bb touch… check the past, even for a bounce we should have touched

  • raised_by_wolves

    You only need a username and password for the demo (which gives you unlimited access to all the charting capabilities) if I recall correctly. Portuguese just can't trade real money 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    X.618 is from you rodents. X.118 is my contribution to the world.

  • Bob the Horse

    i think this is wrong – Bernanke never said it would suppress treasury rates, but that it would suppress mortgage rates. Which it did. Yields in treasuries rose because it was perceived to be working at first – hence you got a normal reflationary reaction.

    The real problem is that it destroyed the MBS mkt because the Fed were the only buyer so it has almost ceased to function amongst private players. this is what happened in Japan – when you have a network economy (i.e. private participants interacting with each other) and replace it with a hub-and-spoke economy (govt sits in the middle of every transaction), it is almost impossible to go back again as it can cause such a big dislocation.

    Agree on basic sentiment though.

  • raised_by_wolves

    No lower BB touch may imply uber bullish scenario ahead!?!

    (^-^)/

    Hurrah!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    seldom, lower bb SHOULD be touched (sooner or latter) before upper bb

  • raised_by_wolves

    Seja bem-vindo

  • raised_by_wolves

    Bring it on then! (I'm highly adaptable).

  • raised_by_wolves

    However, even wolves need to sleep. Good night/morning SSH.

  • sloth_bear

    Thanks for your analysis!

  • sloth_bear

    Got it,
    Thank you!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i should sleep as well shouldn't I?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you're wellcome translates to “de nada” (as in “you have nothing to thank for)

    “seja benvindo” has only one sense and it is “you're wellcome (to this place)”

  • DarthTrader

    Yes, and what happens in the End?

    The Fed Banksters end up owning all the Real Estate.

    Man these Ponzi schemes work great

  • 99er

    Chart: YM
    The Dow futures, after a last gasp up to 10685, settled down to complete a Rectangle Top between 10662 and 10570. Measuring the difference provides a downside potential of 92 points which would bring us to within five points of a potential neckline at 10473 of a H&S topping pattern. If successful, the downside target would then be 10283. I therefore am looking for a sharp fall in YM of 282 points this week. Good luck Bulls!
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZGEzZTNmN

  • Bob the Horse

    No – you get a populist uprising. Marx wasn't stupid.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hummm, marx wasn't stupid, jut plain wrong (and a boring sci-fi writer, still remember how boring DAS KAPITAL was)

  • sloth_bear

    Little update on EUR/USD, it could get pretty ugly soon if we clear the “light blue” rising channel:

    http://screencast.com/t/NjgxNjhkODUt

    More importantly, keep an eye on the “yellow” channel, which seems to be a good ST roof and may contain the prices down with the help of the LT “red” trendline.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    what are you waiting for, you lazy cub? we topped and have a confirmed kill…

  • 99er

    Do all roads lead to Athens?

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    ok, have all the shorts from fri covered?

    Grains, down
    Euro, down,

    short here into close of European stk mkt

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nope – missed that one. Bring it on top of this thread.

  • 99er

    Chart: AUDJPY
    Possible Wolfe Wave price target of 77.128.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDdkM2U5MT

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    RBW: saw your chart – jeeezzz, scary! Which would be the 2007 analog.

  • Bob the Horse

    ESU0 – I am targeting 1088/85 by Wed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Excuse me but Das Kapital is still considered a classic in Europe. Demonized over here in the U.S. of course.

  • Bob the Horse

    “Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalised, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism”

    What a loon. That would never happen here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Step 1: November elections throws out the bums.
    Step 2: The new bums continue the same game after being 'briefed' by the ruling class (i.e. their financial supporters).
    Step 3: Burning cars and nation wide protests.
    Step 4: Police state exerts it's power – military illegally deployed domestically.
    Step 5: Civil War.

    Or – none of this happens and Jefferson continues to spin in his grave.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    raised even made a graph of part of my comment, i sugested throwing an hamster band at the spx:vix http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – those were his Asimov years…

    Seriously, much of what Karl wrote has been taken out of context and his work deserves more recognition. At least as a guide on not to repeatedly fall for the banksters old tricks.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “and a boring sci-fi writer, still remember how boring DAS KAPITAL was”

    I.E. I read a couple hundred pages of the damn book, i repeat the man is boring, spends tens of pages repeatin the same thing in the same form… but i did read it… (well as far as value theory is concerned i also read David Ricardo's and Menger's works as well)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Reminds me a lot of Berk's work from back when.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Bob… that's not Marx (unless it's Groucho)

    proletariot is supposed to go morlock poverty, not brainless elhoi spenders….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you better have a Plan B … put a turbine on Jefferson's grave and… PROFIT?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    point taken and all past/historic future/possible errors SHOULD be mandatory reading

    but the context was used, Karl Marx could have been one hell of a sci-fi writer if he wasn't too hooked on his own juice (bit of a Ron Hubbard before his time)….

    in the end (as hubbard latter on) lousy books, horible legacy organizations

    my 2 kopeks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well the hamster bands were always a bit of a “buy/sell”possible signal points (with the sma line as a breack or bounce option)

  • 99er

    Can't thread needles the way you do but I would guess ES 1074.88 by Friday. Given the bullish sentiment around these parts, I'm wishing us luck!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BOB 8and anyone who didn't get the Groucho joke…. that phrase is NOT from Karl Marx. it's someone's idea of a joke, it's been riding the internet for a while, it's a spoof

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nasty 10:56 onward ramp job….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    11:36 TOP K100 on fast, >99 on lazy, w%r0

  • 99er
  • BobbyLow

    Famous last words. “I'm done tweaking”. LOL

    Well except selling 107 December SPY Puts against 1/2 of my December 105 SPY Puts this morning.

    This took a chunk out of my Negative Delta as Soylent Green is looking stronger and stronger. I will probably use premium received to buy March or June Puts at some point.

    OBTW, there was some mention of Thomas Jefferson so here is something that could be written today:

    “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . . If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” — Thomas Jefferson — The Debate Over The Recharter Of The Bank Bill, (1809)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are standing on the shoulders of giants.

  • WTFed

    What foresight! Our politicians today work for these banks and corporations. It is done.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    TIMBER!!!

  • Bob the Horse

    I can't believe how well-informed everyone is on political philosophy. Ha – I did get sent that quote ages ago, along with various Nostradamus spoofs. Marx had a lot of insight though – it was people like Lenin that took it in the wrong direction.

  • Bob the Horse

    Is it my imagination or is the dollar on the move? No QE, bye bye equities.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Sorry but the hamster's library does have some thousand of read books (including the comunist party manifesto), and vladimir ilitch didn't get too off track, if you must blame someone (though i blame an inaccurate projection by K.Marx) blame good old Jughashvili.

  • equity_momo

    VIX also up…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am targeting ESU0 106x before the week gets over.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Targeting 106x ESU0 before the week gets over.

  • rtlguru

    Is anyone long here? Board sounds like it's 100% short. Where's the bullishness I keep hearing about.

    I'm leaning short as well and thinking about firing off some shorts, but it's worrying me that everyone seems to agree we're headed for a large drop soon.

    While I agree with everyone the risk/reward seems to favor the short side here fundamentally, this market has shown time and again this year that it often overshoots and punishes even the most patient. The runup from Feb kept going and going beyond anyone's expectations on low volume.

    The subsequent drop kept punishing the dip buyers until finally bottoming out at 1000, when it seemed 1040 was going to hold. 1130 just seems to easy for the shorts.

  • equity_momo

    I get the impression blog-0-sphere is short but not piled into it. I also see what the 10yr , VIX , dollar and gold are all doing right now and that equities , surprise surprise , arent. So perhaps theres one more stop loss squeeze to the upside before the stupid bus can join the leading indicator bus.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Monster post.

    Here's a look at the Yen, pushed a little bit higher since last time, but still looking decidedly toppy.

    http://bit.ly/bUlX0t

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Ja, but people are waking up to this fact.

    Why else would all the billionaires be giving away half their fortunes (even a certain D. Rockefeller!!) – I am fairly confident that fear of mobs at the gates must be motivating at least a few of them…

  • WTFed

    Yeah, I've heard all the spooky anarchy in the streets predictions I can take. If the people wake up, I hope we can act like human beings and change the system instead of acting like idiotas.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yup, with you there. If you believe the kooks, all the previous revolutions were orchestrated by the oligarchs anyway!

    Peace and love, bro. With maybe just a few prisons thrown in for all the naughty rich criminals.

  • BobbyLow

    I still say this market is seriously ill. I'm not speaking from a Bear perspective. I'm speaking from the perspective that 1/2 way through the trading day and we are at 21% of average daily volume on SPY.

    This is extremely weak even when considering lower summer doldrum volume.

  • WTFed

    right on.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_G2ZF5H4R3A6M2NMXYEMZCP3SJQ Robert S

    qqqq volume, just when you think it can't go any lower….is this the lowest in the past decade?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Response to RBW:

    Your work reminds me a bit of Berk's charts from way back. I call it 'zone crossing' and it ties into the notion that convictscott quite masterfully articulated in my prior thread (a theory I myself very much prescribe to). At each stage of the wave cycle there are inflection points at which the wave scenario has several options to resolve into. The winners of the ensuing tug-o-war reap the benefits as the wave cycle basically narrows to one particular scenario (or derivations thereof often expressed in a variety of corrective moves) at which point new scenarios lay ahead.

    Predicting the outcome of the inflection point is basically what I am trying to address with my current work on momo indicators. Convictscott is correct in that plain vanilla EWT has a gaping hole in it, which is the dimension of time. The second one he suggests is that of feedback (positive or negative) – which in plain old English means that the trend will remain the trend as long as market participants interpret the news (or macro economic affairs) in its favor. The latter is tied to the former as one can make reasonable projections in regards to the time required for a scenario to take its course once you see the trend shift very distinctly (as for instance expressed most recently by the daily Zero). Chris Carolan has devoted much time and effort in addressing the time dimension, and may I say that he has been quite successful in doing so. My hope is that by combining EWT, Carolan's cycles, and my own humble contributions we will arrive at a system that yields more consistent results in accounting for the gyrations in equities. Of course the emphasis is on 'more' – attempting to produce a system that never fails is tantamount to a search of the holy grail – and we don't want to end up like the conquistadors.

    In summary – I do like the way you are approaching the zone crossing theory, which Carolan attempts to do via the prior three closing candles (not a bad system I may add). Just be careful to not draw too many lines – the human mind is quite easily fooled and if you draw enough lines you will indubitably find correlations where there are none.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nice, but how can you make do with such a tiny screen?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agreed – there seems to be enough short interest remaining for another push up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, that's kind of the problem. It pushes up a little but just enough to change the odds to allow more downside. It's been going on for several weeks now. The 100% mark on the DXY is now at 79.09 – so unless you got in around the 80 mark be careful.

  • BobbyLow

    There are a couple of hours to go but I would say that the current 14% of average daily volume is got to be right down there with some of the lowest.

    I heard that Maria on Hee Haw was saying that there's real money coming into the market now. LMAO

    I think the real money is the money being recycled by the Boyz and replenished via new short covering.

    Maybe some day this market doesn't catch a bid from a lack of liquidity but WDIK?

  • equity_momo

    I hope im right as ive got a sales appointment with FCX at 76.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you for the response. So, uh, are you implying that maybe I should consider going to three standard deviations (instead of six!)? (^-^)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, Berk used as many – whatever works for you.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Ha. Bit of a vagabond really (travelling all last year and only been in current digs for a couple of months – new country), so don't have a massive multi-screen trading room set-up as I want to be reasonably mobile for now. Biggest laptop screen I could find!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is a laptop screen? Wow – impressive!

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Last hour has been pretty quiet, just floating around near the highs.

  • raised_by_wolves

    SSH, try charting GS and then GS:$VIX using your 208 MAs and BBs.

  • Tronacate
  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    USDJPY shenannigans

    http://bit.ly/ckY1pr

  • raised_by_wolves

    It would be ideal if your fract becomes fact. That would increase the chances for my order to buy GS Jan 2012 puts to get filled. That would also increase the chances of my order to sell half my MBI calls to get filled. Let's see if it plays out.

  • raised_by_wolves

    In an early 2009 post, Steve Keen (my other Jedi master) wrote, “Marx got it wrong on some other issues, but his analysis of money and credit, and how the credit system can bring an otherwise well-functioning market economy to its knees, was spot on.”

    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01/31/t

  • BobbyLow

    This is dedicated the market as I can think of no better tribute at this moment.

    As Herve Villechaize proclaims from the Watchtower “The Pain, The Pain”. :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x_QbVDlLbI

  • BobbyLow

    Here comes Head fake Numero Uno.

  • Tronacate

    AUDJPY is in a low ADX coil……..should break one way or da other

  • raised_by_wolves

    SSH, let me know if you disagree. I think (IBM/$VIX) and (JNJ/$VIX) are useful charts. They both have good form, touching the lower BB(208,2.618). The one has moved above MA(208), the other has not (yet).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I know he's got an accent – but come on! :-)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Fairly obvious wedge on the ES 5 min (all hours version) from Friday…

  • Tronacate

    Feelin' da wedgie again

  • finansreven

    Ok, I'm calling it a week and closing my longs. Didn't get all the way i was hoping today and I'm gonna be at work or some silly rock festival for the rest of the week, so I really can't have any positions now.

    Maybe a few days with no bias, no position and just beer may be good for next week's trading :)

  • BobbyLow

    Shit, the volume was so low today that the First Head Fake Got Stuck. LMAO

    Ok, “Tomorrow's another day”. Let's see what Big Daddy Warbucks Benanke has in store for us.

    Catch y'all a little later.

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    A little bit of churning near the end of the session, also today was a new short-term close high on the S&P 500. Volume was very light last week and with the FOMC tomorrow, we expect some heavy volatility this week. I expect some supply near the mid-June high and the swing high on the left shoulder of the multi-month potential H&S reversal pattern http://portfoliotilt.com/stock-market-analysis/

  • Gary_UK

    Depends which blogs you read.

    http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/201

    This shows a sample, 50% bullish, only 14% bearish. It's just that we all read the same blogs!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's Monday and you're calling it a week? :-)

  • equity_momo

    Nice link and good point about the cognitive reading.

  • convictscott

    Bob, IMO its very close if not here but too early to say. Several pieces are falling into place.

    In favour of a top here, several of the components of dx are at potential stopping points. AUD is at the top end of a wedge and has a textbook candlestick pattern FakeoutInsidePeriod, sell on break of yesterdays low, stop 1 tiock above yesterdays high). EURUSD shows the exact same pattern, but it couldnt be considered a high probability entry until it breaks and retests its trendline (its axiomatic that all highs must be retested). So does cable, but its at a 61% fib level of its fall.

    To me the big thing arguing for a little more downside is that the DX is an index made up of 50% euro, And the Euro is going to be the currency of choice for hedge funds and prop desks to short in the next leg down, namely because as a hedge fund guy was quoted “god himself couldnt move the euro alone”. And the Euro is still a little shy of a 50% retracement of the move, even though the DX has pushed between 50 and 61. Also the 200 SMA on euro is around 1.35, which would align nicely with a 1.35. Trust me, if EUR manages to push this high (looks unlikely from here) its a dead certainty that hedgefund.gangfuck.euro 2.0 piles on around here, and this would have real impact on equities.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “the credit system can bring an otherwise well-functioning market economy to its knees, was spot on.”

    CYCLICLY

    marxists see things on a one way street to capitalistic doom we (EWT included) believe in cycles, and let's face it, chaotic atractors

    that's why the soviets got kondratieff killed

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    will do latter

  • convictscott

    I'm confused. I dont see anything particularly bearish on the zero or market internals, and the spx 1131 high is spitting distance away. Seems inconcievable the bulls wont crack it.

    But I'm seeing things line up for a potential highly correlated old testament ass fucking. I have potential (not actuated until they hit daily lows) sell setups on copper, AUDJPY, aud, eur, gbp, gold, silver, crude…

    Copper in particular on the daily chart looks like a textbook topping formation. Equity strength hasnt been able to kick it up any, and it has formed a textbook RetestofHighs pattern (ask if u need details of what that is)

    Also, in an unusual development that often occurs at topping points, $spx made a new daily high while es futures did not.

    That is a very stinky fart in the elevator.

    I'm still long (miniscule position) but my rules are telling me to exit that long and get short in size if the daily lows are broken. I don't like it one bit, but the evidence is there, my rules tell me to do it. I've clearly got a “bit more longside to go” bias and must not allow it to color my perception.

    Bob the Horse may have it here folks, I dont trade news, but the market is certainly lined up in such a way that any exogenous shock applied to it right now will have maximum effect.

  • amokta

    The market is advancing on weakening technical underpinnings and is very close to completing a countertrend rally. A significant secondary peak should be close at hand and be followed by a sharp decline to new lows on the year – ewi stu (again repeating same mantra)

  • convictscott

    Amotka, this time the evidence actually supports that, with a completed Gothic Church Fractal to go with. The only cruicial bit that EWI leaves out is “what if it doesnt go to plan?” If the 1131 high is breached and holds, its a game changer, and all bets/counts are off

  • amokta

    ok! Lets see what happens when the fat lady sings tomorrow!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think we may get one more spike up on the AD for a complete fractal. They do take a bit more time after more pronounced retracements.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    In case you didn't see it – I addressed some of your thoughts you shared yesterday further below in my response to RBW.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “I'm seeing things line up for a potential highly correlated old testament ass fucking”

    LOL – sounds like fun if you're into this kinda thing :-)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Paris would oblige 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    in spx:gold i see a confirmed kill, minimum 2% drop ahead (nothing can stop .92)

    will that be the beguining of a serious drop or january-april replay before serious drop? your call

    late 2007 or mid 2008? any guesses?
    and there is still a non null chance of 2004 or late (october) 2005 replay (though i start to find it unlikely)

  • Tooncez

    Are we all on the same page here?

    I think that you mean the GCT shape on the AD in the blue box. (I wait for some DA action for confirmation).
    I think that CS means that the “RetestofHighs pattern” (green?) that he mentioned (today and at http://evilspeculator.com/?p=17396) plays into his version of GCT.

    http://screencast.com/t/MzEyMGRlM
    Or am I confused?

  • Graphite

    FYI snopes has said that that quote is probably apocryphal.

  • BobbyLow

    So someone at Snopes says that it might be of questionable authenticity however Snopes does not say that it is false.

    So what? I'll assume that TJ wrote it. But if he didn't write it then whoever wrote it should be congratulated as far as I'm concerned.

    If an institution is corrupt it is corrupt.

    There are also written pieces that John Adams who was a Federalist and Thomas Jefferson who was an opponent of Federalist policies both had a common belief in a strong distrust of central banking and especially Alexander Hamilton.

    Is this the truth? I wasn't there and can't testify to their relationship to other than what I've read. Has misinformation become so bad that there is nothing that can be trusted as being truth?

    Well how about this? I've personally witnessed a disastrous fucking that bankers have performed to our country and the world for that matter. So the act itself is real and who ever wrote the statement was still prophetic.

  • Graphite

    I don't know, there's a big red “FALSE” flag on the snopes page about it http://www.snopes.com/quotes/jefferson/banks.asp

    There are lots of quotes of Jefferson expressing his deeply-held skepticism of banks, and central banking in particular. He did have a bit of a feud with Hamilton over it. And yes, he would be absolutely appalled if he knew one tenth of the things the banks have done to this country. But it is unlikely that he would have had an understanding of “deflation” as we think of it today. It seems to me like that quote was probably created during the Great Depression, when there obviously would have been a lot of anger over bank-induced deflation.

    I'm right with you on the banks, the insolvent ones should all be liquidated with extreme prejudice.

  • Nightwind

    Proposed EWT Rule: No wave formation of any degree can ever repeat itself within the same span of time. Example: A minor wave 1 that took 1 month to complete will never repeat itself in the same time frame in the same market in the future. Sounds to good to me….after many cold carbonated beverages…LOL

  • Thespookyone

    Great charts Mole, thanks. Love the way you work your way deeper into paths you discover-great work. I know for one I have made some semi-roguh comments about Prechter and EWI, and normally, I'd apologise. Problem is, I love to surf the waves, and over many years it has served me in great stead. Their record is what it is, period. Worse, I sense a lack of flexibility on their part visa-vie their takes-sometimes long after it is clear they are mistaken. In my view, the best Ewavers know the alternate count and present it to those that follow them. I notice you always do, and I do the same in practice myself. The other issue is resources-they certainly have them-I'm sorry, but I truly feel all considered-they could do better.

  • yudhisthira

    Copper toppy?
    Perhaps a right shoulder is finished tonight.
    30 min chart:
    http://screencast.com/t/MWJjMDYyNT

    I'll check in the morning when I wake.

  • Thespookyone

    Very nice take, thank you!

  • convictscott

    Agree, and HG U0 just triggered a sell signal on my daily chart

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Appreciate your kind words and I hope that what I present here is paying off for you guys. I think the past year has taught me a lot and my golden rule now is to rely on my momo indicators first and on the wave count last. If it's between them and the wave count the momos get the benefit of the doubt – that simple. The use of Elliott waves only make sense if you know what the trend and the momentum is. IMNSHO attempting to employ EWT on its own to predict market turns is tantamount to financial suicide. You just don't know – I mean look at the past year and then remind yourself how often a top was called by – ahem – certain market pundits. I myself have to call mia culpa on that end but somewhere in the middle I started to smarten up which is the main reason I was able to avoid a few nasty bear traps.

    I do make mistakes – like everyone else. Thing is that I am very focused on learning from them. And I hope that is reflected in what I present here as of late.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • sloth_bear

    EUR/USD long term chart… Interesting…
    http://screencast.com/t/MTYwMWRi

  • chronographics

    Mole, I love the EWT but trading it is different than using it to give forecasts as per EWI. I too reply on my indicators first and wave counts second, it has kept me on the right side more often than not in nearly 30 years. Love your commentary and the analysis just gets better as you are always looking to improve and learn and what's more, to pass it on – that is a trait not seen enough. Keep up the good work.
    By the way I am well short Euro :-)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I think that is why I presented the “late 2007” (i.e. october 2007 style double top ahead) as my first (wishful thinking) scenario and why i'm still short, nevertheless the spring 2008 and (worse) the late 2006 (oops I had written 2005) are options WITH DIFERENT TIMEFRAME FRACTALS (imho)

  • chronographics

    SB this is a great long term chart and everyone here should have a look at it. I am still short Euro but doubled up at 1.3310 and got out of my option cover a little lower. Bonds still strong something has got to give :-)

  • sloth_bear

    Thanks a lot for your support! 😉
    Here is my ST road map:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZTM1MzRlN2

    (I'm very bearish, will reconsider if we bounce hard from the bottom of the white channel)

  • sloth_bear

    Here is the main channel I'm following on AUD/JPY:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZWU2MjA3OTg

    We should break down soon, or I'll have to find an other one :-)

  • convictscott

    Tooncez,

    I prepared a pretty detailed post explaining my take on GCT(simplified), but my pc bluescreened and I'm too tired to replicate it now. Hit me up on skype sometime (id scottphillipsau ), I'd like to discuss various fractal ideas and get your take on a few things relating to ongoing development. The way it looks now is that taking only GCT predicated trades doesnt give a magic bullet, but it filters out a lot of losing trades, leaving the way clear for nifty tricks in money management.

    I'm only looking at ADV/DEC for bearish setups and DEC/ADV for bullish setups.

    I define a GCT (bearish/simplified) as:

    1) Highest ADV/DEC in 5 days (rolling week) – I'm not stuck on the rolling week, may experiment a little
    2) Price increasing with a lower adv/dec reading, indicating distribution

    Reversed for bullish setups

    Its a much simpler definition than Mole would agree on, but IMO it represents distribution, ie price going up on weakening internals.

    Setup complete, but with such a simple definition you cant just go short on that basis. My research indicates that when price goes up on weakening A/D it can keep going up and up and up, but when it falls, it goes down with a bang. IE the market becomes vulnerable to an exogenous shock, either from price action (stops getting triggered, daily highs/lows getting breached and acting like pivot points) ore from news (like a fed day)

    So what I do is when the GCT (simplified) is complete I start stalking a short, and take the next candlestick pattern that gives the price action to kick off the shock, at the point where the market is vulnerable.

    I will put the various patterns I trade online somewhere, because I'm sure they will not mean anything to 99% of traders here without explanation.

    Take a look at this, GCT(simplified)'s are marked in yellow, and setup bars are marked with black arrows.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Scottpb/folders

    I take setups off the $spx and where there is an entry bar trade those entries on the es. The black arrows point to the setup bars for all short trades, with the stop placed 1 tick above the high of the setup bar, and the entry price 1 tick below the low.

    My money management rules are
    1) Trade has 3 periods to make 1r, if it hasnt done that exit on close of day 3
    2) Exit at 2R profit unless 2.0 bollinger band is in “walk down the outside mode”
    3) If bollinger band is nearly flat, exit on touch of bollinger band.
    4) If bollinger band in “walk down the outside” mode dont trail a tight stop, move stop to each progressive spike high (for short) until top bollinger band turns down, then tighten trailing stop
    5) Always exit trade on second close outside bollinger band.

    This gives 6 short trades and 2 long trades since the April highs with NO LOSING TRADES. Even when the signals have been false alarms, the market is poised such that the market goes down for a little bit, before giving a buy signal and stopping out for a small profit.

    Its certainly a promising area of research worthy of more effort… too tired to go on right now :)

  • convictscott

    Great call!!!! Everythings lining up on the bear side, copper falling, aud falling too

  • 99er

    Chart: YM
    A completed V Top (in blue) and a Rectangle Top (in red) about to wrap itself up should make nice gifts to bears today. Good luck!
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NTM3ODUxNm

  • sloth_bear

    Looks tasty!

  • 99er

    Wanna do lunch? Great specials today, I'm sure.

  • Nightwind

    Vix in bullish wedge, ES painting bullish IHS on hourly, Treasuries in hourly h&s pattern, copper & USD possibly forming a 4th wave. Looks to me like a short term bear enema followed by a long term bull guillotine.

  • sloth_bear

    I love restaurants where you can wear shorts!

  • sloth_bear

    White channel broken, yum yum!

  • convictscott

    Its really starting to line up now, probabilities rising all the time :)

  • sloth_bear

    ES, again at the bottom of the wedge:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZjU3MWUzM2

    Moment of truth?

  • 99er

    Chart: ES
    So you think Ben's going to get kicked? Okay…where? Below the belt or in the shins?
    http://www.screencast.com/t/YzQ1NTY1OTM

  • sloth_bear

    Lol! He will meet Mr Fat Finger…

  • Bob the Horse

    Love the way everyone is trading the news right now!

  • 99er

    Who's that…Barney Frank?

  • 99er

    In Tokyo, they have restaurants where the waitresses don't; “no pan shabu shabu.”

  • sloth_bear

    Maybe, looks like he's training:
    http://tinyurl.com/34wyb43

  • sloth_bear

    :-) It's getting ugly for the bulls

  • sloth_bear

    :-D!

  • tradingmom

    So…moment of truth…are we going to break down out of this wedge now? Or will that trendline continue to hold?

  • sloth_bear

    Currencies are not yet invited to the party:
    http://screencast.com/t/Y2MzN2NhNj

  • Bob the Horse

    Poor old Katzo :)

  • sloth_bear

    Hehe, 😛

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like the famous house formation happening in XLF. Erikd liked these back in the time..

    http://screencast.com/t/ZGM2M2NmMT

  • BobbyLow

    As my long puts are beginning to awaken, I have to remind myself that this is Fed Day and that Fed Days have been known to be challenging to say the least.

    I would not be surprised to see the market tighten up prior to the announcement and then do its whirling dervish Up, Down, Up – Down, Up Down – or any combination of these 3 moves with the last move being the strongest.

  • sloth_bear

    Can't post charts right now, Jing is broken
    But We reached the first target on this chart:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZTM1MzRlN2

  • jigdaddy

    wow huge signal on ZL that has almost completely retraced!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Euro on its way to taking dumps for now on

    http://screencast.com/t/NWU1YWJmOD

  • sloth_bear

    And the opposite for his mirror friend $:
    http://screencast.com/t/M2ExNWMz

    I'm still über bearish, but we may pause here, I hope not :-) (Under 1.307 EUR/USD we are clear to dive IMO)

    I don't know if the Fed has a nasty surprise for us or if it will just add oil on fire

  • sloth_bear

    Here is a chart showing the lasts supports to clear, after that, it's party time, but we are not there yet…
    http://screencast.com/t/ZTYwOTBlM

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ugh – don't remind me!

  • zenob
  • sloth_bear

    They had to take the bus:
    http://screencast.com/t/YzM4MDg5Z

  • skynard

    Back testing the rising channel right now. We will know shortly.

  • sloth_bear

    interesting spot AUD/JPY:
    http://screencast.com/t/NzJjZDNl

    Must be scared of all the void underneath, only a thin wire to stop the fall and a big yellow bulldozer falling from above

  • Bob the Horse

    The bus is departing Port Authority, final destination, Portland Oregon

  • jigdaddy

    where did you get Portland from? curious cause i was just up there…

  • Bob the Horse

    First city on the west coast I could think of

  • amokta

    Ok, we are down but not out. Are we due for ressurection derby again?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok, this would be a nice turning point

  • Tronacate

    we are witnessing the fall of an empire…….everything just fits together……radical patriotism…….anger…….angst…….us Americans just can't believe that it is all falling down

  • DarthTrader

    Fed Day every one went away until after mid day when they all began to play

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no politics tron, stick to market and cavities 😉

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Financials making new lows here vs the general market…

  • tradingmom

    Trendline on hourly ES chart w/ PZI has been broken, right?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we should be on our way to 1100 with option for sub 1024

  • tradingmom

    5 min chart has that rounded top/ upside down cup with handle (handle forming now) look to it…..fwiw.

  • sloth_bear

    Schboing

  • zenob

    I think I just heard a printer start up.

  • Bob the Horse

    au contraire – this is not QE2. Nothing in that statement that makes me worried for my shorts.

  • bshah

    so ben said yes to more free money to those loons to rip big bonus yet again…? not for nothing big spike ?

  • Bob the Horse

    I've read the statement and whilst it is not everything a bear could dream of, it's a long way from being reflationary. It basically says things aren't as good as they thought, they will try to slow the passive shrinkage of their balance sheet but things aren't bad enough for more QE. Pretty much what I had hoped for. This is a bounce to fade

  • DarthTrader

    Typically after Fed release there will be 3 or more Large Swings !

  • Bob the Horse

    I expect equities to make new LOD

  • Tronacate

    They are scratching their bald heads……

  • bshah

    I am not bald, but i am pulling my hair out… WOW..

  • Bob the Horse

    I am off home now, I managed to sell some more futures on that spike and I am now going to just walk away and leave it.

  • DarthTrader

    Fed setting bears up . . . This will be sold off for about a 10 days then Fed will announced a renewed QE Plan next Thru or Friday right into Option Expiration. Which will Ramp market straight up Painfully wounding foolish bears who aren't wise to these Fed Games .

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    if you were bald, there won't be any hair to pull out..

    WOW would be when you were bald AND you were pulling hair out.

  • EvilTrader

    i happen to agree with bearish bias.

    but China data tonight will set markets for 2morrow.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    same here.. the best thing is to enter position and walk away.

  • 99er

    Chart: ES and ZB
    “So, Big Boy, are you happy to see me or are there two guns in your pocket.”
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDFmNzRmMGQt
    I suspect the Long Bond will get the girl.

  • Tronacate

    Reminds me of that superman ride at six flags……..straight up……..then back down

  • DarthTrader

    I love Fed Day

    Like shooting Fish in a Barrel

    Just wait for an extreme then go the other way.

    Like I said usually at least 3 or more swings

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    2:45pm is often a key reversal point on fed days.

  • BobbyLow

    Fed Days are usually for shit unless you have some quick fingers to catch the waves preceding and after the announcement.

    I think we are in the second move right now. It is the third one that'll count on the day.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Interesting that the biggest 5 min volume bar on the day ended with a huge top wick.

    Also, current high is at c = 2 x a – and we have filled this morning's gap down.

    So there's really no need to hang around up here any longer!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    went away, return and find THIS?

    i swear to god that we did NOT make a decent bottom. from 14:10 onwards it's PPT land as usual

  • ricebowl

    Look where the bollinger bands are.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    i need sell off…

    they seem to be trying to stop people off..

    anyone notice they stopped posting Copper price on CNBS?

  • gsavli

    overdue?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I would not be surprised…

  • skynard

    Like that, set and forget.