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There Goes The Dollar
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There Goes The Dollar

by The MoleSeptember 8, 2017

With all the chaos that’s unfolding in the U.S. right now (La Tuna blaze in L.A. and a second massive hurricane now threatening the South East) I felt a bit guilty for grumbling about a comparatively inane topic like the falling Dollar. But thankfully my momentary bout of decorum quickly passed and I’m back to my old self again. So let’s do this!

2017-09-08_DX

I won’t beat around the bush and put this to you as succinctly as I can: This is going to get ugly and unfortunately that breach of our long term support level at DX 91.1 is only half of the story.

2017-09-08_EURUSD_LT

Just look at that weekly EUR/USD chart and tell me what you see. That’s right – a floor pattern followed by a break out and massive rally which does not seem to slow down. Oh and bloody Draghi isn’t exactly helping. How he possibly assumes that Europe is out of the woodwork and an exchange rate of 1.27 by the end of this year (calling it) is not going to cut EU exports in half is beyond me. But perhaps he’s playing some kind of 4d chess against the jaded Germans who hate inflation and want to see the Euro at $2.

2017-09-08_AUDUSD_LT

Here’s the long term view on the AUD/USD with the weekly panel getting warmed up for its own breach and run higher. Once again there’s nothing but air above and we could be seeing the Ozzi Dollar at 0.89 early next year.

2017-09-08_USDCAD_LT

The USD/CAD is basically free falling now after missing its last chance of plotting a medium term floor pattern near 1.25. I’m seeing 1.14 here and if it keeps this up it could be happening before the year is over.

2017-09-08_gold_USDJPY

Clearly precious metals have been benefiting substantially from the tumbling greenback. Shown above is gold plotted against the Yen to which it has been closely correlated over the past few years.

2017-09-08_silver_update

That of course has been helping our silver campaign which continues to go strong. I’m not advancing my trailing stop to about 2.8R in profits in hope that the upper 100-day Bollinger won’t be putting up too much resistance.

2017-09-08_silver_LT

The long term picture is looking pretty solid

2017-09-08_ES

Before I forget it, here’s a friendly reminder that the CME equity futures are rolling over and if you’re holding positions then now is the time to either cash them out or roll them into December. I can’t believe we’re soon heading into the final quarter of the year. I still distinctly remember posting last year’s Christmas post. Where does the time go??

Anyway I looked at the recent medium term price action and clearly the most recent correction is the only one that a) has not yet technically completed (i.e. prior highs have not been breached yet) and b) may have more downside potential. Theoretically speaking – yes – as my momo charts are ambivalent and current weakness is most likely caused by all the political and environmental chaos.

2017-09-08_spoos_volume_profile

And I’m not about to take a position on a Friday, with a category 5 hurricane threatening to level Miami and who knows what else. Plus let’s not forget about Kim Jong Un who I’m sure is caressing his missile launch buttons as I’m typing this.

Public Service Announcement

I put the finishing touches on the alpha version of the most excellent Evil Speculator statistics parser yesterday afternoon. It lets you extract pretty exhaustive weekly and monthly statistics on any Yahoo Finance symbol. So if you have nothing better to do then head on over there and kick the tires a little. Careful though, at least to me it’s incredibly addictive.

Alright, that’s it for me – see you guys on Monday! Unless of course you live in Miami, in that case best of luck and I hope Irma heads to Cuba instead where I’m sure I don’t have any paying subscribers 

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • OJuice

    Draghi playing 4D chess… lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I truly have no idea what is going on in this guy’s head. But then again he’s Italian and perhaps he just enjoys punking everyone.

  • Mark Shinnick

    La Tuna really needed to go its been a long time and goes beyond critical mass.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    let it burn. less to worry about next year. Muwahaha.

    The air quality is bad in Phoenix, apparently worse elsewhere! cough cough
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99a9b5ea9f930b2b51340103b6bab90a3ed93e355d91d255d37c0050ba896e74.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Pull up a 20yr chart on bucky, expanding diagonal.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Monthly

  • Mark Shinnick

    Results over time, net good or net not good for most regular people is about the only test I know of.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sorry mate, you are going to have to do some of the heavy lifting.

    All I can find is a end-of-the-world USD go to zero chart.
    ah, those were the days.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt092812/usd_pillars.gif

  • Mark Shinnick

    I guess there is the reflection of TINA.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Anybody watching copper?
    it’s been an escalator the last month, so a 2-3% pullback is not crazy.

    However, I didn’t like the downdraft on the 5th, and I certainly don’t like the downdraft this AM.
    So I am out of GDX. Technically & emotionally.
    -GG

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=h1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..almost forgot. Big Picture?
    the weekly shows limited upside on Dr. Copper.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&st=2010-09-01&en=(today)&id=p73532626852
    {grin}

  • Mary

    Mole… thank you for your new stats tool … it is awesome and clever people should be able to find an edge with it …

    For instance, I noticed that qqq has had a tendency to rise in august while spy has a tendency to decline.

    It may be worth backtesting a buy qqq sell spy pair trade in august.

    I’m sure their are a million more.

    How do you get the skew numbers?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, it achieved its measuring objective so local bull game over for time being.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Scientifically, its conscience or lack thereof. Those without it know to socially synthesize its image but don’t have any real track record to show it.
    At least 5% of the population is so composed.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited short miners, hit near term objective.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Hi GG — Same here GG …. I added a channel and fib retracement to your chart Possible 3.30 ?
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/71a95237cfdf5174582f7b78733a0d7d30d1a6b5325bc2cf44e6f76b62ec01d7.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    always a possibility. but look at the history.
    chop and flop very possible until then.

  • HD

    what a tease. SPX now 3 days inside a 10 handle range and the VIX explodes 7% today?
    Something is cooking.

  • Brishort

    The stats tool is very nicely done, bravo Mole! will need a little time to make sure how to properly integrate it in the trading toolbox to be actionable, but the info is surely rock solid

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, the contexts and color of $, gld, equities all seem to carry that impression.

  • ridingwaves

    IRMA reality sinking in….

  • HD

    could be just pricing options for OPEX etc but SPX should be VIX 10 currently so one of them is wrong

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ha. Spirit Cooking.
    is that Theta Burn I smell?
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    … the “news excuse” often cited as the reason for why more fundamental things happen? There is always one of those handy when needed. LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    even if it’s just 100 Million damages. ..hard not to imagine liquidations to meet needs.

    http://fortune.com/2017/09/07/hurricane-irma-damage-estimates/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    or God is mad at Trump, and wants to destroy Mar-Largo.
    maybe change the face of NORK decisions and the future-of-the-World.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar-a-Lago

  • ridingwaves

    when you see colors like this from your local Noaa office- Get out!
    http://www.weather.gov/mfl/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    would you go surfing in it?
    :-)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Dude!!! Maybe like this burning man guy?

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, Burning Man, ran INTO the fire. Definitely a Elliot Wave wanker.
    lost it all.

  • HD

    Ha, The popularity of EW right now is lower than ever. 8 years ago there were literally 100 EW blogs counting Pretcher’s B wave. Everyone was a guru. Good times.

    Maybe a Sun Devil running into the fire? :-)

  • StockTalker

    Where are the buyers? Flipping crude long, another hurricane coming.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    why not, it’s actually cooler in there.
    😉

    or he saw his girlfriend in the flames.
    https://www.tempe12.com/files/2013/08/Hot-Brunett-ASU-Coed-2.jpg

  • Julie

    GG What ! Jose and not Julie ! Hell Hath No Fury like a Julie !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    tell me about it.

    RANK: 453. two above PHOENIX.
    Illuminati Confirmed.

    https://www.babble.com/pregnancy/1000-most-popular-girl-names/

  • ridingwaves

    that would be Julia

  • Julie

    GG Looking at a high flyer KEM a bounce off the daily 34 ema approx. 20.08 (LOD 20.16) Support 19.96 and 19.78
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    for the love of god. where do you come up with these losers stocks?!

    {that was a pun}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whoa, look at that weekly. HIGH pole position.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KEM&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p14803479633

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes. my experience, is the RSI will dip to 49 or 48. then jerk back to 50 or 51.
    the support may work. on the dark side, you could be camped out for over a month waiting for direction.

  • Julie

    GG I follow RSI too as you do. Will use the hourly 8 ema as a filter i.e. a bullish close above along with the hourly MACD 5,34,5 bullish signal line cross
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Had enough of /NQ this week, getting off

  • Yoda

    If my reading of the zero is correct, we may see some weakness during the last hour

  • Julie

    GG RW Mole StalkTalker Brisshort HD Yoda and Everyone …. Montana Grizzlies cheerleaders and Montana State Cheerleaders. Notice the many blondes … Gonna be a winning season ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/67cedd7a60342f5d21e05987c46105a13a1dd9afeea163f2210a4f0eff2ddf17.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4af2fc592ab1657acbe4376c8bed1147901608a2164138d3e0faa7eab77d5f5.jpg
    JULIE

  • HD

    a winning season is a good goal. About all I hope for w AZ football. that and we beat ASU.
    I have a Montana Elk hunt on my bucket list. Big country. Some day.

  • Julie

    University of Montana (Missoula) and Montana State (Bozeman) are beautiful campuses in the heart of the Montana Rockies. Great schools and MSU (School of Business) has the highest pass rate of the CPA exam . Also MSU Engineering is very highly rated too
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Wonderful HD You are always welcome in the Big Sky !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.
    Market close, is close.

    for those with loved ones, friends, frenemies in Florida.
    https://earth.nullschool.net/
    use Chrome Browser.

    -GG

  • BobbyLow

    Irma is one serious Hurricane. I’ve been sweating this one out. I’m on the east side of NC and it looks like Irma might head west of us. But nothing is ever guaranteed with these things. It looks like Florida is really screwed no matter what. I lived in Southwest Florida for 10 years and experienced 4 hurricanes while I was there. The worst one was Wilma which had enough wind in it to tip 35′ Motorhomes over on it’s side. This Hurricane at a 4 or 5 is much stronger than Wilma and has enough power and potential storm surge to be even worse then Houston’s “Harvey”.

    Last year Hurricane Matthew flooded us here in NC and caused serious damage when it had non-stop torrential rainfall for about 12 straight hours. If Irma stays on it’s current path, I should be OK but I if I remember correctly, ES Member “SaltwaterDog” has a good chance of getting hit where he is in South Carolina. This is some bad shit and it’s only early September.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Last chart, have a safe and not so eventful weekend.

    [UUP]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33278649585
    -GG

  • saltwaterdog

    Best of luck BL – we are paying close attention here but at the moment very few have chosen to leave. Anxiety (low gas, water, cash levels as early as Monday) was Harvey-driven, but last night’s update on Irma with its westerly shift was good news for us both (though not much help to southern Fla). Matthew hit the coast here at low tide – so the resultant surge was pushing water inland at the most opportune of conditions, and once the storm passed the coast, the winds turned and drove water out at high tide. 6hrs or so on either side and we would have had far more dire results. Assuming we see some heavy weather early next week here, this will again be the most important thing to watch, especially so close to a full moon.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Apologies for my absence today but my moto got hit by a car today and I had to go to the hospital :-(

    I’m okay, only my right knee is a bit messed up. But the moto is completely trashed – will post some pics later. Wasn’t my fault by the way, the idiot cut into me in an intersection, was trying to make a left turn ahead of incoming traffic which has the right of way.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    glad you’re in one piece.

    The one thing you wouldn’t be able to self diagnose is Brain injury.
    please have Mrs. Evil read this article for the next few days – just to be safe.

    https://www.brainline.org/article/traumatic-brain-injury-signs-and-symptoms

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    recommend you upgrade to something safe old man.

    a small car will get you through those ancient streets and back alleys.
    this was no accident, it was a signal from the Universe IMHO.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5a8469a36a2379829f7b550e8f4c0489b6ff2e482a98322b04352a13c45053e0.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m sorry but WHO are you again?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bummer dude… glad you are OK.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks mate. Feeling much better already and I just came back from the gym. Knee is still a bit swollen but it’s healing quickly :-)

  • Yoda

    Wow, that’s what you call a strong buying participation at the open.

  • HD

    Looks like a couple of the set ups mentioned last week are panning out. USD did find some support at 91 and Gold is off $23. Last year SPX rallied 43 points on Patriot Day. The VIX was 20 for that though. At VIX 11 we have already rallied about half that range 21.

  • Brishort

    Good to hear, take care!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, if you don’t buy – the terrerists win.
    😉

  • HD

    should be VIX 10, mission accomplished

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    two bloggers, two motorcycle accidents, what a coincidence!
    A little story.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eFCU8IVEVY

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Just catching up. Glad you’re ok. A drunk driver ended my motorcycle days a couple of decades ago. The guy who taught me to race dirt bikes always said that the reason he quit riding street bikes is because he never had to worry about a tree jumping out in front of him when he was in the woods.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III