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Thursday Morning Briefing
72

Thursday Morning Briefing

by The MoleAugust 22, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Some overnight recovery in the spoos after yesterday’s late session sell off – it hasn’t reached the 100-hour SMA yet and I don’t see anything else of value nearby. What however is interesting is that we touched the 100-day SMA and then bounced back.

Of course I know what’s going through your brain right now: Does this mean the current correction has run its course? Frankly speaking there is no way of knowing at this very moment (and if anyone’s telling you something else they are guessing). The 100-hour SMA should give us early clues as to whether the bulls are interesting in buying here – it’s nearby, has been observed before, and thus should be our inflection point until further notice.

Yesterday’s brief spike produced a new short term resistance line on platinum. I intend to make use of it if we get close again – apparently a powerful seller there is attempting to keep a lid on things.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Fearless

    Given the fact that the DJIA has already closed in the red and below the lower Bollinger band for 6 consecutive sessions, and closed red for 11 out of the past 14, here are the stats below:

    a) The likelihood of closing in the red for the seventh consecutive session is 44.5%
    b) The likelihood of closing below the lower Bollinger band for the seventh consecutive session is 50%
    c) The likelihood of pushing to close in the red for 12 out of 14 sessions is 22.1%

  • Skynard

    So needless to say shorting the rip stands a good oppotunity if resistance is not broke to the upside. STFR:)

  • Skynard

    Reversing AUD .9040

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I used to post pertinent stats and now only do it when things get into the 7th or 8th consecutive session. Otherwise I have learned the hard way that there is a difference between likelihood (chance) and probability.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ST E-Mini update:

  • Skynard

    AUD running in 30 pip increments it seems. 903, 900, 897 and so on.

  • saltwaterdog

    Hourly NLBL in Corn coincides with the 25hr resistance… could get spicy here in a minute

  • ridingwaves

    spicy hot or cold? I’ve been watching it and was looking at long entry

  • saltwaterdog

    My comment was in support of Mole’s long setup in the post… I plan to own at either the 100hr or on a b/o above this net line… being cute, but no rush here while it proves itself one way or another.

  • saltwaterdog

    NatGas hilarity ensues in 15min… I expect more than the usual fireworks

  • ridingwaves

    right now it’s sitting on the resistance line from high and the 50sma..

    http://s2.postimg.org/4mz16zw0p/image.jpg

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted at the zero arrow. Reason being it took 4 4-hourly bar to recover that one. This probably the last time i am posting my trades here. Dont wish to clog out the forum with tonnes of ST trades. If this short doesn’t work, it will be sad, but i will have to put away bear hat and wear bull mask now :)

  • Skynard

    Did you get the TDA?

  • Dyellowflash

    I have complied the last yr’s worth of TDA – I dont think they mean anything. We will have to find out whether its a TD the Old Way.

  • Skynard

    Lol, yes. Understand.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    “This probably the last time i am posting my trades here.” Why’s that?

  • DarthTrader

    ES mini completes an overnite ABC up at 1652.75 so we are a pot’l short right here

  • Skynard

    Dipping toe?

  • DarthTrader

    My spidey senses are tingling . . waiting

    The Russell fut are 4 points below it’s ABC completion

  • neowave

    Gold broke ID first to the downside, but has now breached the high of the ID within the same candle, makes it a very juicy set-up

  • Skynard

    Good idea right now.

  • momac

    platinum had an ID yesterday and has done the same thing, if it can make it over the 8/15 hi of 1536, could be in for a good run??????????????

  • DarthTrader

    Another ABC on ES completes 1654.5

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted YM 14960 and 14964. I am afraid this time there will be no prisoners.

  • DarthTrader

    Pulled the trigger setting up a bear spread on some TNA options

  • Dyellowflash

    OH no… I am out of time. Either win in 4mins or I got to clear off again.

  • Skynard

    Think these bulls want to test the high, gone this far. If the market does not it could get ugly again.

  • Pervergence

    Platinum…..rolling

  • DarthTrader

    Mercury Conjunct Sun on Saturday, a strong market reversal aspect, so I think one more down break then up from there . . . next week or sometime tomorrow.

  • Darkthirty

    you read Merriman?

  • Pervergence

    Big seller of Platinum must have lost the handle…..looks to be squeezing the sellers

  • saltwaterdog

    punching through the Net Line on the daily but 200dma also right here

  • DarthTrader

    From time to time . . . think I will right now. But I do track certain aspects that I have seen have a good track record.

  • Darkthirty

    use all the tools!

  • DarthTrader

    Yeah but don’t confuse yourself

  • Dyellowflash

    TP-ed half at 14942. Might clear the rest and take a long trade if doesn’t break down soon.

  • Skynard

    Looks to be a trend day, both 5 min signals above the signal line. Establishing a trend line or back testing.

  • Dyellowflash

    Tough call to make. The hourly zero doesn’t seems to move much but yeah, the 5m ZLs are clearly indicative of up TD. The hourly was one of the reason for me shorting, but as the day unfolds, the 5m is not cooperative.

  • Skynard

    Bullish tape, just backed up for more ammo by the looks. VWAP holding, slow STO hourly tuning up.

  • Pervergence

    Household income down 4.4% since end of recession….Gallup unemployment figures….8.6%……tell me how the FED is going to stop printing

  • SS_JJ

    Yes the Gallup latest unemployment figures are indeed very interesting. I can’t wait to see the NFP numbers on Sept 6th. Those expecting taper in September could be quite disappointed.

  • Pervergence

    there’s really no way out….it’s like cutting off an addict….a lot of pain

  • Skynard

    Ya, have that:)

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, one last saVWAP before launching.

  • Pervergence

    Time for Bucky to fill that gap…..hourly big phat H&S

  • momac

    has resistance 1540/1541, 100 wk sma

  • Skynard

    Make no mistake, still bearish on this market. Will be prepaired to short again soon. Especially if the bulls can not break resistance today.

  • Skynard

    Ah, reversed /ES. 52.5

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Fearless

    I should have mentioned that yesterday the ISEE equities only call/put ratio closed on the lower Bollinger band. Based on past occurrences when the ratio closed on or below the lower BB, a sizeable ramp job is to be expected; however, there may be a lower low ahead in the next few sessions prior to the ramp job.

  • Dyellowflash

    I have gotten back that half as well.

  • DarthTrader

    Option spread are widening . . . put in a stink bid and got filled

  • Pervergence

    ES RTV sell on 30 min developing??

  • DarthTrader

    Many of the Bids are gone ZERO even where in the money

  • Ronebadger

    hourly as well, by my observation….still, lower highs…barely

  • Dyellowflash

    And out of that half. Even that dip wasn’t supported by zero.

  • Skynard

    NDX options experiencing technical difficulties. Hum:) Does not sound good! Took AUD off .9015.

  • DarthTrader

    My TNA options also had all bids disappear . . . so I put a bid 40 below the market got a partial fill

  • DarthTrader

    Whoops just got rest of fill on an option with a .30 spread where normally it is 3 or 4

  • DarthTrader

    Use Chaos to your advantage folks

  • Darkthirty

    problems at nasdaq/cboe

  • Dyellowflash

    40 below the mkt???

  • Skynard

    Not showing prices, bid on 72 put QQQ .3, Lol

  • Pervergence

    Wanting GC to let loose like Plat.

  • DarthTrader

    I trade weekly options so I was talking .40 or $40 per option

  • DarthTrader

    Exactly so put in a bid above that . . a stink bid that should not be filled but in these condition money can drop into your lap as long as you have a bid or ask as the case may be

  • Darkthirty

    nasdaq halted 1240 ET

  • Skynard

    Also, short AUD now.

  • Skynard

    Bearish wedge developing 5 min.

  • DarthTrader

    The opportunity has passed . . . Options on various other instruments were still trading even though the Asks were jacked way way up and the Bids were all gone to Zero. I was able to put in a bid way below the market and got a partial fill then the market moved toward my position and got a complete fill from some sort of panicked trader thus closing out a short position I had on at a very profitable level

  • Darkthirty

    sweet

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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