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Time To Pay Attention (Again)
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Time To Pay Attention (Again)

by The MoleAugust 31, 2015

Most market participants suffer from chronic recency bias in that they weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience. In particular retail traders more often than not expect more of the same, which actually is correct most of the time. Except for when it matters the most. Come again?

2015-08-31_spoos_briefing

If you have come here for a while then you have seen me use the word ‘inflection point’ on various occasions. I use that term rather deliberately as it succinctly expresses a moment in time in which an equilibrium between potential outcomes can be shifted rapidly by comparatively small movements in price. Say again?

Back in my wave wanking days this is a typical situation I would refer to as the 1-2 conundrum. Meaning – do we push higher and then fall into our graves, or do we drop from here and then ramp higher and continue the long term bullish trend of the past few years. The implication of that would be that down actually would be short term bearish but long term bullish – whilst a move up would set up the bulls for an even bigger correction.

Since then I have come to accept that these are all valid scenarios but that there is quite a bit of a gray zone in between. And without boring you to tears let’s just jump to the conclusion which is that there is a myriad of ways this one could play out. But that is exactly the part we need to focus on. What matters the most right now is what happens in the coming days, starting today! If we push higher on quite a bit of participation (you are a Zero sub, right?) then the bulls have a good thing going and may be able to defend continued attempts to draw the tape down.

Interest hike be damned – whether or not it comes in September or next year or in 2020 – I suggest you watch the tape as it will give you all the information you need. But let me be crystal clear about one thing. If you are a bull then this is most likely the most important moment of the year. On the other hand if you are a bear then this is most likely the most important moment of the year. And if you are neutral – like me – then…. well, I guess you got the point.

By the way, in case you are curious. I am still holding the remainder of my long positions as I have not seen the need to pull them (i.e. my trail has not been touched). I have however advanced it to near the bullish Maginot Line, which in my mind is near 1940. If that one goes then we probably correct quite a bit lower.

2015-08-31_gold_briefing

Gold is actually in a similar spot and I just took a small long position here with a stop below 1127. However it could easily resolve the other way and drop quite a bit lower. The price pattern allows for either scenario which often annoys traders. In my book however this is where the benefit to risk ratio is the largest – in that I can apply deterministic rules within a small price range whilst expecting increasingly larger price moves the further we advance from said price range (up or down).

The majority of people feel uncomfortable embracing uncertainty and perhaps a long time I was one of them. One day however I realized that this is where the real opportunities are and it is probably the one take away I am still thankful for having studied Elliot Wave Theory. However when it comes to predicting future price movements EWT is absolutely useless. There is simply no predicting future price movements – many people smarter than you have tried and all of them have failed. What you can predict however (sort of) is volatility – but that is a topic for another day 😉

Alright, quite a few setups waiting below the fold – please join me in the lair…

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In case you guys need a good tune to get you in the spirit of things:

Alright, if nothing else this is what I need you to take away from this post.  Pay attention now and bank coin all the way into December/January. I mean it.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • hellbent

    Aye aye, Cap’n.

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks.

    The Ponies in my Stable appear to be in No Man’s Land at the moment so it’s hands off for now. I’ll be out for a good chunk of the day so that’s OK. 🙂

  • hellbent

    Whipped out of CL short earlier… Look at it go now!

  • hellbent

    Whipped out of GC to for first hit on futures account. It needed that… Thanks Mole 🙂

  • Skynard

    Whipsaw, making it’s next move now.

  • Crofx

    A thousand thank you’s Mr Mole

  • hellbent

    Hey dude, good to see you’re on deck.

  • hellbent

    Great comment the other day, Bobby. Something about ‘hitting a vein’. Will forever be welded together in my head as a synonym for letting the winners run. Along with “black snow” for position sizing 🙂

  • randomuser6789

    I have a very simple system that I am paper trading and keeping a trade journal as to why I place or close a trade. I am using all the tools I have picked up here at Evil Spec. This is so different from the emotional (foolish) trading I have done in the past. I am using this time now to evaluate whether I should be trading at all. I believe I can do it, but I need to prove it before I start to lose and gain real money.
    I went long oil via UCO on the breakout above the 20 SMA.
    I went long TCK and was stopped out as I did not leave a loose enough ISL when I initiated that position.
    I am more of a trend trader because I have a day job. I am not nimble enough to play the swings the way some you folks do.
    Anyway, the education I have gotten here for trading has been more useful than my MBA. I have subbed in the past and will likely sub again when I start to trade real money, using the zero as a confirmation of the signals of my system. Thanks Mole!

  • RonnieH

    Can’t go wrong with Zero sub.

  • Skynard

    Crude will be running into massive weekly resistance very soon though.

  • hellbent

    Yeah, I’m on the sidelines except for a bit of scalping. Rode the bastard down from close to 50. It’s been like hanging on to a surfboard in a really bad wipeout! Catching my breath now 🙂

  • hellbent

    good call

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Just got caught up with the discussion over the weekend. Just wanted to say thanks for all of the good points made by Scott, Bobby, Edd, etc. I would have chimed in also, but I now make a point of stepping away from the screen for the weekend unless I’m really working on something.

    Regarding today’s post, I’d say that I’ve probably been too comfortable with uncertainty in the past rather than simply taking what the market (or anything else) was willing to give me at the moment. I’d love to expand on that topic but I’m just too busy right now.

    Typing one-handed with a toddler on one knee. He knows red means down, green means up, and always asks where we are on the chart and which way it’s going today. I always tell him “I don’t know!” In the future I’ll be telling him it doesn’t matter.

  • hellbent

    I fn love soy

  • hellbent

    School him up on compounding and inflection points and the world’s his oyster 🙂

  • hellbent

    Will we see some CL profit taking panic now??

  • Skynard

    W3 looks done here, time for some retrace

  • evilasevildoes

    amen

  • hellbent

    I hear ya

  • hellbent

    🙂

  • Skynard

    We also just had a daily gap fill

  • hellbent

    several..

  • Grant

    Mole, I see that you have posted the returns for Scalpius. How has CI fared this summer?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehe…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: For thy holy Zero art with me;

  • RonnieH

    Yeah, I’m out w/2 pos. trds, mkt is on a chop as shown by Zero

  • mugabe

    check the crazy ivan tab

  • Skynard

    Market looks to be consolidating, disturbance in the force?

  • Darkthirty

    Gap fill, then ???

  • Grant

    It’s not updated for this summer.

  • mugabe
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    FARK – Scalpius is off the hook again today. Already banked 4R on crude and it ain’t done yet!

  • Richard Foster

    Maybe you will be able to load it with real bullets soon :))))

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Starting today actually.

  • Richard Foster

    COOOOL

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The LAMM program starts today – we have already traded it forward internally.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Forex only though – for the first week. Then futures. Yeah, would have been nice to grab that one for you guys…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Indeed – we’ll sort this redneck out in no time.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Excellent – make sure you closely watch the tape’s behavior around the inflection points you have defined. Also make sure you get an idea of how the tape moves. Does it surge higher in many cases or is it a slow go and crawl kind of thing. This way you can think up the best way to trail and to define targets – if there are any. If nothing else – make sure you know when you are wrong and that’s where you put your stop – no if and no but.

    Baby steps – it’s along journey ahead of you. But it will pay off – as you grow as a trader things will increasingly feel effortless and procedural. All a matter of establishing good habits which you then later incorporate as a system rule set.

    Final tip – stay away from premature optimization. Be prepared to stick with five core rules and re-visit those iteratively before you start even thinking about optimization. Entries matter little – what matters the most is the campaign management that follows. You can have the best entries possible but what matters is what follows the entry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And probably it’ll go through a losing streak right away 😉

  • Richard Foster

    Guaranteed!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It never fails – another reason to trade at 0.1% R sizes early on.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero sez that the tape is super dangerous here – could swing either way at any moment. Watch your sixes guys!

  • RonnieH

    Amen, just watching

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We need a fucking ST price pattern but thus far she ain’t playing ball. Remember guys – in any business deal the person who’s willing to walk away usually wins. In trading this translates into being willing to miss out on a big move unless you see a technically valid entry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Corrected – please reload.

  • Skynard

    Big volume here on crude

  • Ronebadger

    The divergences look like they tell the tale…but I’m not betting yet….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bobby Thanks for suggesting trailing stop. Huge move in crude that I am glad I caught thanks to your suggestion. I just tightened it up here though. What a rip….. anyway, no more talk of trading w/out a system from me going forward but this was a good way to go out. You guys all rock including Scott. Thanks for putting up w/ me!

  • Billabong

    30% move since last Monday … I had calls this weekend asking for opinions on MLPs. It’s like everyone with $$$ thinks this is the oil bottom.

  • Billabong

    I was happy with 22% in three days … shoot, CL went way beyond that today.

  • Skynard

    Looking for some serious profit taking:)

  • Billabong

    You’re right on target Mole. My equity bell weather stocks like GE have started rolling over.

  • Richard Foster

    30 yr down hard and ES down doesn’t look quite right.

  • Billabong

    3rd day of rejecting 25 EMA

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Could get ugly – but price needs to roll over now. Not a bad spot to be short but SMALL position sizing please!

  • Billabong

    I haven’t changed the small and wide since you emphasized last week … and it’s paying off … thanks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh right – I get it. Good work.

  • Billabong

    Small positions / wide stops…

  • hellbent

    A gun toting cammo wearing toddler would fit right in here – sign him up!

  • hellbent

    Fn stop making money you *^&$#^%&*! 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    ZB is a very nice short setup for today

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Scalpius hit the 50R mark today – in less than one month.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yeah, taking that one.

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s a tool like any other. A good tool, but pretending it is a substitute for a trading method is extremely dangerous.

    PLENTY of zero subs have blown up here 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    Well done. Trade it small, monitor your mistakes. Spend as much time reviewing your trades as trading.

    Good man, you are to be applauded

  • hellbent

    Awesome. I just made my first NT indicator. Can I ask how long it took from your first indicator to finishing Scalpius?

  • randomuser6789

    Thanks to you, as well, Scott. Your words mean a lot.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Eight years.

  • hellbent

    That’ll explain why coding doesn’t quite feel like breathing yet. Good shit all the same.

  • Scott Phillips

    Easy money is now made mate. Good time to stand aside

  • Billabong

    Closed out all oil related trades during the day. I’ve found fading and trailing stops on strong moves works well for me. CL is giving some back as I write…

  • Darkthirty

    scott???

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Lot of downside movement happening right now in futures

  • Billabong

    Started When Japan opened … already hit Mole’s ES 1940. GC up $6 and CL retraced $2. It’s going to be a busy evening / morning.

  • hellbent

    its trying to bounce here

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Everybody likes to brag about their kids, but mine is definitely big and smart for his age. Turns three next week but he’s commonly mistaken for a five year old. Wants to fight me all the time, so I’m trying to teach him some basics and when he’s old enough I’ll make sure he gets some proper MA training.

    When the subject pops up again, I’ll expand on my own thoughts regarding what kids should know about finance and getting by in the real world. Wouldn’t we all love to go back and throttle our younger selves?

  • hellbent

    Cool, and yes I could have used some throttling. Best thing that happened to me was having a (step) Dad who was always on my side.

  • Scott Phillips

    Another equally valid way to play it is to have massive positions/tight stops but be extremely aggressive about banking profits 🙂

    Both approaches have their merits

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have coded for about 30 years, mate. It’s not as easy as they make it out in the movies.

  • hellbent

    I was playing seadragon on a TRS80 30 years ago… Still goofing off.

  • hellbent

    29 trades today. Gold cost 1R. Soy put that back. Next 27 trades netted total 1R. MFE greater than MAE. Hell average 🙂

  • Billabong

    Likes like a rough morning in the general markets except for gold +$11

  • hellbent

    Still don’t want to talk about gold 🙂

  • hellbent

    I’ve done all sorts but a 4yr degree as an adult student taught me about laboring in front of a computer screen. More and more work even at sea is doing much the same. The lucky/clever people are in design of some sort, using their imagination, I recon. The rest of us are either problem solving or slaves 🙂

  • mugabe

    in my three monthly momentum accounts, closed all remaining exposure to equities yesterday (wasn’t much anyway in 2 of the accounts) and went 25% short in the only account where I allow shorting.

  • hellbent

    That reeks of negative sentiment 🙂

    (I’m flat by the way :))

  • hellbent

    Technical investing?

  • hellbent

    short time at the spoos

    Hit it with my new 4060 Basic Ninjastyle ATM

  • Billabong

    Sometimes it’s better to sit on the sidelines and catch the really big move. After breaking ES 1940, 1880 area is next support or LL.

  • mugabe

    monthly rules-based system based on only on rate of change over famous time frames (60-200 days) and adjusted to varying degress for volaility. Basically a simple momentum system. get rich slowly system 🙂 Catches the meat of extended trades – late to get in and late to get out.

  • mugabe

    I sit out by blindly following my rules!

  • hellbent

    Smart 🙂

  • mugabe

    I cobbled it together after reading various articles on the web about momentum, volatility and asset allocation. Very simple system … grinds out profits over the years. Not super performance by any stretch of the imagnation. That’s where I hope Scalpius comes in 🙂

  • hellbent

    Had a look at ZB today and its got quite a nice character for trading. This article raves but you get the idea..

    https://tradingthetape.com/performance/zb/

  • hellbent

    Sounds like really good advise to give people. Cool.

  • hellbent

    1920 lies the resistance.. filled.

  • mugabe

    It’s not advice! It’s a system that *I* can work with and sleep with. Many here would find it too slow (and not proftiable enough).

  • hellbent

    Sorry mate. I’m actually not taking the piss. It’s recommendable just by your description. People I know with money want to keep it but go for the out pick the picker buy and hold route. Trading obviously isn’t on… But technical investing makes a lot of sense. System – yes.

  • mugabe

    no offence taken 🙂 what it has in common with what goes on here is that it’s rules-based. it’s a conservative way of growing a nest egg over the years (back to compounding, again)

  • hellbent

    I didn’t know there was rules here.. :-I

  • hellbent

    Quick Systems question: Toaster; kitchen: which is a system?

  • Billabong

    RBT is the only way to go … keep it up.

  • Billabong

    I’m always amazed how small positions can turn out huge profits….

  • hellbent

    hrly is 2 slo

  • Billabong

    Compounding … a slow boring system can compound just as easily as a fast one. Mole’s 20% example says it all.

  • hellbent

    Mole’s 20+R/day says it all…

    EDIT: OK, that’s a big day. But 50R/ month… now that is serious compounding.

  • Billabong

    For a fast system … you trade a fast system and I trade swing systems.

  • hellbent

    on what time frame?

  • Billabong

    Swing systems are daily … usually a 2-3 day holding period out to infinity (becomes a trend trade).

  • hellbent

    LBR is my (she) hero 🙂

  • hellbent

    Quick Systems question: Toaster; kitchen: which is a system?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry for not posting this morning but I got a tiger by the tail (technical issue) right now.

  • hellbent

    It’s OK. You’re in credit 🙂

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Machts nichts.

  • hellbent

    Calm down mate 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    A massive memory of 4K expandable to 16K with a unit sitting under the monitor. The extension cable they used was crap and caused crashes – you had to solder it firm in order to fix the issue. Aaah, the good old days of computing… the dumb kids these days have no clue what they missed out on. It was all virgin territory back then…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Calm but very pissed.

  • Billabong

    one is specific (toast) and the other is the whole enchilada (kitchen). Each has an RB system on how it operates. Same concept as an RBT system…

  • hellbent

    falsch

  • hellbent

    Check out the big red ZB candles. Bit late now..

  • Billabong

    Then tell me why it’s false …

  • hellbent

    ..

  • hellbent

    You’re right about the toaster: rules. Or more accurately; inputs and outputs.

    The kitchen is more like our platform would you agree? And market the ingredients??

  • Billabong

    I could see that … taking the tools out and using them. That would definitely be another way to look at it.

  • hellbent

    That’s it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bone for you leeches…

  • ridingwaves

    too much Volatility to pick bounces…were not done yet…

  • mugabe

    evil ones 🙂

  • hellbent

    No pressure 🙂

  • hellbent

    it bounced. Minute charts here.

  • ridingwaves

    they are going to happen but most will be weak…I’m long V since friday…that long tail is going to be tested again… too tricky for me to play bounces right now…good luck in your trading

  • hellbent

    Cheers. just scalping up close and personal like. Killed the ZB above but suffered on the next ES short. Call it practice..

  • ridingwaves
  • hellbent

    Money as debt 🙂

  • hellbent

    Scary like souffle

  • Kishore Kumar

    As the stock “market” has been reduced to a guessing and frustrating game of overnight gaps, they might as well shut it down during the Regular Trading Hours!

  • Skynard

    Crude good for a 4, now for a 50 retest

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Let me guess – you’re losing money?

  • OzarkHillBilly

    The Zero has been at least as interesting to watch today as it was last week.

  • mugabe

    it is what it is

  • ridingwaves

    so that will force you into the bond market, which could be ugly too or better yet, go get some yield at your bank….

  • Darkthirty

    Try small size trade counter to the days trend at the close. Usually pays well. I never hold large positions overnight.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Thanks Mole for your kind attention. No, I am quite serious about wanting the overnight manipulations to stop, or else the particpants will all flee, and not because I am losing money. What is happening is that, because I do not hold overnight positions and the daytime range is small on mostly Ramp (with an overnight gap) and Camp days as Trend days are rare, I end up mostly not playing and missing all the “action” and that gets frustrating. The good part is that they cannot force me to play their own dirty game. However, we can probably participate in the overnight action by being a wave yanker, and foregoing being a day trader. Sorry, I aplogize for using the much hated word on your site.

  • Edd

    Kishore, I have learned how to thrive on daily action. 3 times today, all long trades on a rules based trading program on the 5 minute chart. I felt your way a long time ago. I do not any longer. If I can do it any one can. First you MUST open your mind to the possibilities and lose your bias. Best to you my friend. This is a good place to be to help you

  • BKXtoZERO

    as my boss at work would say, “Sounds like excuses”. He is as hard as Scott. Anyway, here is my favorite picture lately.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    The kitchen allows too many discretionary decisions to be made, at least for the beginner. The toaster is hard to mess up if you follow the rules, but somehow my ex-girlfriend still screwed it up all the time.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “No, I am quite serious about wanting the overnight manipulations to stop”

    If you have a problem with the overnight action then don’t hold anything overnight. It’s that simple. Trade the market that is not the one you would want. Either that or find another profession/hobby.

  • bullethead

    or trade futures

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    or F/X

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    eurusd 3 hr

  • ridingwaves

    FIRE sector failed to reclaim the barney (purple) line on rebound last week…1980 area seems like solid resistance now..

    http://s22.postimg.org/gj1s7lvg1/Fire_Dimming.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    thinking we go lower….fear is everywhere and to think all of this is about a .25 move in interest rates….Seems like big trouble in the land of hopium….

  • Edd

    As an example. In SQQQ 26.31 at 11:44est out 27.08 1250est. +4R today so far on 4 trades. 2 on TQQQ, 2 on SQQQ. No overnight trades
    followed rules exactly, no mistakes yet. Stop complaining and fretting and get to figuring out how to make money.

  • evilasevildoes

    SPY fake print to 197.70

  • ridingwaves

    my peon thinking is some sovereign wealth fund, hedge, or chinese bank has blown up over that yuan move and repercussions are still in play…

  • BKXtoZERO

    or that was “a” of lord knows what for Crude. “b” now can go anywhere, not that EWI is all knowing, more like all guessing. (got both :-))

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Welcome to volatility.

  • mugabe

    meanwhile yen up big and threatening/hitting resistance soon.

  • mugabe

    looking bullish (to me) .. Mole won’t like that

  • Skynard

    Accending broadening wedge pattern, bearish pattern but a retest would be jiffy. 80% fallout

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Strangely price is not responding to quite significant selling pressure. This is rather strange – I have rarely seen this before.

  • Bill

    BTFD back in play? I say that in jest.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ah that may explain the Zero today – some institutionals are scooping up cheap positions and perhaps are hedging themselves on the futures side. Who knows… the rabbit hole goes deep.

  • M E

    nah. price is catching up. just a little delay

  • mugabe

    but *which* dip?

  • Richard Foster

    Mmmm unched but -27,000 delta. It’s common to see it the other way where delta doesn’t support price change but not this way.

  • BKXtoZERO

    wanker club for men may see this as a “b” pullback for a c rip. Not that I am doing anything…….. 100% cashola

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I was going to ask about that, as this struck me as being a rare event, even without previously having the Zero to reinforce my perceptions.

  • satouse

    CB trying to keep a floor under price before long week-end in China and US?

  • OzarkHillBilly

    …. or the third of a fifth to complete last week’s move down ….. or this, or that …..

  • Skynard

    Holiday coming, would BTFD

  • ridingwaves

    from article posted below..

    Rising volatility even in just “money dealing” activities alone means there is less capacity for further money dealing. Absent additional capacity from some other element the only recourse is systemic retreat. That it might be focused on China isn’t really surprising given that volatility in anything related to China has had to have been reexamined quite unfavorably; again, it becomes self-reinforcing to a breaking point, as volatility rises and curtails liquidity capacity in this manner, which has the further effect of increasing volatility in actual calculation and expectations and so on.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    If the selling pressure is real, I bet those institutions suffer some short term regret, at least.

  • Skynard

    Late day div 5 min accumulation.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We may see late day resolution…

  • Edd

    Ok now my head is spinning!

  • ridingwaves

    my take…
    less money sloshing around to buy market back up as liquidity is being sucked up by volatility..

  • Skynard

    Gap fill, lol

  • Edd

    It`s probably good I do not understand it all! Reverse repos et al. Just try to buy and sell higher

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Same behavior continues. Would you care to elucidate on your thoughts concerning this?

  • Darkthirty

    Amusing read at ZH. Layman’s explanation of a market casino

  • ridingwaves

    1917-20 is sticky, a buyer there but can they hold off all this selling

  • Darkthirty

    Pretty jerky there, pumping as necessary……

  • Darkthirty

    or batwings-butterflies-bull/bear flags-head and shoulders-5 peaks-double/triple top-et al-ad nauseum

  • Itslance

    I have a very small long position/lottery tickets that I expect to be stopped out of…but just on the off chance that we see a nice short squeeze….all this selling pressure and price isn’t dropping….fingers crossed

  • Darkthirty

    Where’s the current lock limit on ES?

  • mugabe

    will prob be about 20% down from high at close …

    er that should be 10%

  • Skynard

    Extreme signal on the ZL, this is a buy.

  • Itslance

    So much for that! Basically dropped as soon as I posted…lol

  • Billabong

    Talk about extreme … SCO down 12 yesterday and up 11 today.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I was going to mention that but didn’t want to appear as to be rubbing it in.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Just lost my futures feed but nothing else. Something going on at CBOT?

  • OzarkHillBilly

    How would you interpret this? I can see both sides (or more) but don’t have much experience with it in real time yet.

    Combined with other indicators I watch, it’s either screaming bull trap or faking out the bears.

  • Huey

    No, probably your data provider

  • Darkthirty

    major moves, the data feeds get sketchy. That’s why I dwanna get locked out………..%5

  • ridingwaves

    out L volatility…

  • Scott Phillips

    FYI Sky interprets everything as a divergence or potential reversal, since that is his trading game.

    Highly recommend you develop your own thoughts on this. Sky’s suit him (motherfucker CAN catch a reversal), but he has highly unusual psychology, increased span of control than usual people, etc 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    Here comes your gap fill Skynard

  • Skynard

    Ya, getting a buy here

  • M E

    I also took a small long position now. Buy when there’s blood on the streets etc.

  • Scott Phillips

    Get a new data feed. You expect bullshit on FX data feeds, but futures data should be rock solid. Like rock fucking solid not 1tick out of place, EVER!

    A single instance of dodgy futures data would be enough to have me changing brokers. Sheet, even kinetick has good data for futures

  • Mark Shinnick

    On a longer term note: Vol has broken a important neckline… measures quite a bit
    away from here,,,months/years of recency bias make that measurement in svxy
    seem unreal….but check it out.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m waiting until tomorrow mid morning to look at Vol S…overnight action could be brutal….

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Thanks for chiming in Scott. No worries about me following Sky, although some of our thoughts may align since catching/avoiding real and imaginary inflections used to be all I ever tried to do. Just looking for some insight from anybody on the Zero (I’m a subscriber finally) since this is an unusual situation.

    In my youth, nobody could tell me a damn thing. Now I just try to get a little more insight. Not planning on making any trades today.

  • Skynard

    AH could be just as bad or good depending how you look at it:)

  • Scott Phillips

    If you are in doubt about the zero at any point, load a chart with “ghetto zero” aka UVOL and DVOL and TICK and see if they match up.

  • ridingwaves

    weekly spx pnf chart still pointing at 1621…daily posted high pole warning but is pointing at 2220

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Roger that, thanks. I’m taking notes vs what they all appeared like last week in particular in order to help put things into context.

  • Skynard

    When we get an extreme range in either direction it typ points to reversals. It dictates exhaustion IMO.

  • Itslance

    No worries. 🙂 I saw an inflection point, entered based on my rules, set my stop based on my rules, controlled my position size, and was emotionally detached. I got stopped out, but that’s still a huge win for me. If this was a couple of years ago, I would be pissing and moaning about how things are rigged, taken on way too big of a position size, and probably doubled down once I saw the trade going against me hoping for a reversal but losing boatloads of cash in the process. Instead, I took a small risk and will try again tomorrow. Much better outcome. Hat tip to mole and Scott for my progress

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    yea, it was. Probably couldnt handle the insane amount marketdata towards the end today

  • Kishore Kumar

    Thanks Scott! Watch out, Mole may ban you! Your dead lift video of 638 ibs. was very impressive. Incidentally, I did 400 lbs dead lift at age 19, a few decades back, with a skinny body of 145 lbs, 5’8″, and I still weigh 145 lbs. I have been more into long distance running for much of my life. Also, for over 20 years, I have found the divergences using some function for “cumulation” of TICK, ADVN and UVOL to be quite effective as an advance notice of reversals, though not 100%, as nothing is, reliable. Neverheless, you are calling it “ghetto zero” maybe because you have found Mole’s Zero to be far more effective. But the basic idea is probably the same, i.e. based on divergences between Price and Market Internals.

  • Billabong

    Are you feeling better now vs last week? It’s good to see you here again. I shorted biotech today.

  • Scott Phillips

    Kishore, 3X bodyweight deadlift is very impressive!

    I actually prefer the ghetto zero, because I can get it in real time on any charting package and because I know what’s in it. I also like the zero, because divergences are much clearer and easier to see.

    The zero is a good tool, I’ve used it in the past. Logically it doesn’t behave like a price based indicator (macd, rsi, stoch etc) so it must have some variant of TRIN/TICK/UVOL/DVOL/ADVN etc in it, weighted together with some price stuff. I say weighted with price stuff because divergences don’t play out in trend days – just like price based indicators.

    Mole never talks about it, but my best guess would be TRIN (with the inherent calculation errors fixed) mixed with some kind of price indicator in a proprietary weighting. Possibly with something more as well. If that is what it is, it’s a perfectly workable concept. Also gotta remember that he came up with it in 2009 or 2010, when I then even Mole would agree that he really didn’t know what he was doing compared to now. Bottom line, for me, its that there is 5 years of history and daily viewing of it that matters more than whatever secret sauce is in it.

    Truth is it doesn’t matter all that much WHAT the tools we use are. Far more important are headspace, consistency, record keeping, system building and monitoring, etc.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Throwing more indicators at it just gives him more opportunity to doubt one or the other.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Amen! And Mucho Gracias, as always! Best wishes for a long and happily married life!

  • ridingwaves

    I did reflect and then I went surfing, thought about all the waves I had missed in my lifetime and began to dig in…been playing the very thing I thought I missed, thanks to that short covering rally..funny thing is I did very well with something I picked up in the carnage of last week, even while I was crying over spilled milk..

    definitely more focused…thanks for asking…

  • Scott Phillips

    Good point

  • Darkthirty

    Use 3 different feeds, been fucked before!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup, plus a few secret ingredients…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Today’s session via the Zero:

  • Scott Phillips

    The nature of futures data should absolutely preclude that from happening anytime, ever.

    It’s a straight time and sales text data feed. It’s not like forex with bid/ask etc.

  • Scott Phillips

    Check cmegroup.com and click on “time and sales” after “product…whatever your contract” it shows you the real data in real time

  • Scott Phillips

    Evolving you are! Survive you might!

  • Scott Phillips

    Intraday systems don’t compound right in all but the most liquid markets. A tick in and a tick out of slippage on a 10 tick range is -.2R expectancy in slippage to overcome before you start.

    BIG problem, actually the reason I moved away from Gabriels systems

  • Scott Phillips

    I had a trs80 model III

  • newbfxtrader

    Woot 200+ comments today. You guys been busy. Making some dough too I hope.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Been there! I’m happy with making the right decisions.

  • hellbent

    Yep, and much worse if you’re copping shit spreads from brokers on CFD’s like I was. Another big thanks to you and Mole for pointing me in the right direction.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Possibly true, but I learned a long time ago that less is more when it comes to relying on any sort of technical analysis. However, I’m obviously no Tim Knight. 🙂 Just looking for more context since this seemed to be a rare occurrence, but one I suspect may occur more often in the relatively near future. I’ll be sure to go back and review all of the Zero material since I don’t want to be one of those people who asks questions which have already been answered.

    I appreciate your parental attitudes, btw.

  • Scott Phillips

    We all sit somewhere on a spectrum from 100% mechanical to completely subjective.

    TK and most of the wave crowd are somewhere near the “my specific genius gives me insights” end of the spectrum. Ivan is squarely at the “mechanical trading is the only objective consistent method”.

    FWIW I’m somewhere about 3/4 of the way towards Ivan. Mole is probably a little more purely objective rules based than me.

    What is important is that you get a method which is really intune with your personality and psyche. Unfortunately beginner traders are magnetically attracted to methods where they have a great deal of freedom and control, which is the opposite of where you should be at the start of your trading career. The better you get the more freedom you can have to bend your rules, but beginning traders want to bend the rules every second day.

    A good place to start with the zero would be to review the last 100 days price action and look at a) Divergences, and B) super strong signals and odds of continuation. I’m sure you would find a very rich vein of edges to mine there.

  • Scott Phillips

    It looks like you!

  • Scott Phillips

    many thanks 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey didn’t mean to be rude earlier it’s just that I have been reading for a few years and I felt kind of like you do. I watched these guys make the most of the tape every day. Mole pointed out that it was actually a gift to be steady and upward for so long and to enjoy it while it was there. I get hammered for almost every thought I have around these parts. Just funny that I thought it was manipulated every day then and you think it is unfair now and I am loving it. Just learn to make the most of it.

  • ridingwaves

    vix still in contango -12.31%

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I’ve got a 45 pound toddler falling asleep on my other arm, can’t type more than to say thanks right now.

  • captainboom

    I grab an end of day screen shot of the zero every day. It’s on my list of things to do to manually go back and correlate extreme readings on the hourly zero with SPX moves. Anecdotally, when the hourly zero is around -6 or below, that seems to be a very good indication that a reversal up is coming. Yesterday’s -4 is looking like a bounce this morning.

    I”ve occasionally seen spikes down on the hourly to -10 or below, usually intra bar if I happen to be in front of the screen manually reloading it. These seem to be good turning points, but I haven’t quantified this yet.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ( ( ( ) *
    ) ) ) ) ) ) ( /( ( ` ( * )
    (()/( (()/( ( (()/( )()) )))( ( ) ` ) /(
    /(_)) /(_))) /(_))((_) ((_)() ) ((((_)( ( )(_))
    (_))_|(_)) ((_) (_)) _((_) (_()((_)((_) ) _ ) (_(_())
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  • OzarkHillBilly

    Good idea. Thanks!