Told Ya To Pay Attention

Today’s bounce was no surprise to us rats as the writing was on the wall before the NYSE opened. If you have any pertinent doubts then check my early morning briefing – and if you missed it I suggest you sign up so you come better prepared next time. Well, that’s now in the past, so let’s look at where we may be heading:

The E-Mini is pushing toward its 100-hour SMA but there’s still ground to be covered. The 100-hour happens to line up with a new NLBL on the daily – conveniently positioned at 1662. Expect some resistance starting at 1660.

As I’m seeing a bit of a signal divergence we may be running out of juice here soon but let’s see what the final hour of today’s session brings us.

The long term panels shown for a bit of context – recall that the weekly NLSL at 1665.75 should be the make or break point for the bulls (and bears). The monthly however shows us that we have not even begun to paint a correct, despite all the Hindenburg Omen hype of the past weeks. Besides, what everyone knows is not worth knowing.

The NQ at its 25-day SMA now – a breach higher would be bullish. It’s already trading above its 100-hour SMA.

Quick update on Cotton which was a great short this morning. Our early morning entry has paid in spates. I doubt many of you took it but if you did then I suggest you scale out post haste.

The equities side is however a sideshow right now – I’m a lot more worried about the fate of the greenback as we are approaching an important inflection point. For more details please step into my lair:


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This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 20th, 2013 at 2:17 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • SS_JJ

    Another awesome post! Thank you Boss. :-)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Is /CT Limit down?

  • saltwaterdog

    Closed limit down, yes.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • SS_JJ

    Darth_Gerb turning into Gold_Gerb?

  • BobbyLow

    Nice Roller Coaster Ride in /CL today. Something seemed screwy after big retracements of this morning’s early morning Down Move came into play during the 10 AM and 11 AM Candles.

    I think what happened was that Today was the last day to trade the September Contract and enough of these were rolled over into the October Contract to force price back up temporarily. Today’s Larger than Normal Volume on /CLV3 supports this as well.

    In the end, Selling Pressure in Oil won the day and this was good for mankind as well as my trading account. I’ll allow myself one small warm and fuzzy. Tomorrow is another day. :)

  • amokta

    Goodness Gracious, great balls of cotton!

  • amokta

    NFLX makes new highs, aint that a charm!
    What about that indicator new highs vs new lows, wheres it at?

  • Darkthirty

    I know I stashed it here somewhere!

  • Ronebadger

    Possible VIX Step 2 today. (Possible Step 1 tomorrow)

  • BobbyLow

    After using the actual product for over a year now, I have to say that Netflix is a still a great deal at $8.55 (US) per month especially during the Summer. I pay over 10 Times more than that for Cable and have 100′s of choices that are mostly crap. (How many shitty reality shows like “Keeping up with the Kardashian’s” can one be expected to watch?)

    So basically, I can see why Netflix is so popular and has managed to get its stock price back on track after having it get whacked after changing/splitting their menu a while back.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Good gawd, an avalanche of high cotton
    all the ladies will want to come over now!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    bah! I could say that for the Rupee (64:1)

  • amokta

    Yes, i see your point. Selective, on-demand content is what many want these days!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – watching it ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re easily pleased. I really had to rush it as I couldn’t sit on my ass anymore. Too much to do lately… need some time to air out my cranium.

  • SS_JJ

    The post works well for me. I just want to make sure that I am not on the other side of your trade ;-)

  • Skynard

    Nice Bobby, this could be a precursor, shall sell. Would not be surprised if the market tanks now. Seeing crude take a move like that does not make me warm and fuzzy to be long. If we loose VWAP will be full short again. Go red MF team:)

  • Darkthirty

    LOL, thus the term “shittin in high cotton”?

  • SS_JJ

    I could be talking from the top of my head but the EOD sell-off to VWAP without ZL playing along seems rather suspicious…and rather bullish too.

  • SirDagonet

    quiet as a mouse pissin’ on cotton…

  • Darkthirty

    b of 4 meh?

  • SS_JJ

    this old volume profile chart could explain why the big boys want to keep playing in this range:
    https://securecdn.disqus.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/509/8992/original.jpg

  • SS_JJ

    Exactly, meh! Look man, EW used to work before POMO. Now, you have to have a much clever system to beat the tape and the major players that have much more resources and knowledge than you likely dream of having. I also guarantee you that they all know how EW works and they will precisely set-up traps for you to fall in when you think that a 3 of a 3 wave is imminent. Therefore if you think you are going to bank coin systematically using EW counting make sure you carry with you a large tube of vaseline.

  • Darkthirty

    Just another tool, i use TA to complement it. Agreed, it was tits before QE

  • convictscott

    Actually EW is an illusion. It works *some of the time* but not enough to make valid trading decisions on. It is very attractive to beginning traders because the promise is so amazing (literally tell the future). I used to use it, Mole used to use it, TK used to use it.

    It didn’t stop working after POMO, the fundamental premise that it is based on is completely, demonstrably false.

    Defense of EW is like defense of homeopathy or phrenology

  • convictscott

    There are *parts* of EW that are based on sound logic, they are just used to draw conclusions that cannot be justified

  • SirDagonet

    did you ever look at MT Predictor software? And Steve Griffith’s theory about using “isolation” wave count?

  • SS_JJ

    The best way to realise it is to get burned using it. Two words: utter garbage.

  • Darkthirty

    Damn! feel like a christian in a mosque! And, yeah, i got a lot of lumps on my head

  • SS_JJ

    Learning hardly comes without pain. Welcome to the new reality of trading: Yes we can bank coin in this crazy market!

  • Darkthirty

    you gotta admit, no system was worth a fuck for the whole session

  • convictscott

    Take the things that are absolutely true from it. In my opinion

    1) Highs and lows are most often retested before change of trend (wave 2)
    2) Markets are fractal
    3) Trending and corrective price action look very different
    4) After a massive move in one direction, the highest probability is for choppy market as late buyers (in a bull move) come in and mix with profit taking from sellers – Wave 4

    Those things are all true, but to take them and then say “I can predict the future”, “the market will rally until xxx and then sell off until xxx and then resume to xxx’ – it simply CANNOT be true.

  • SS_JJ

    I disagree. ZL was rather indicative that it was a bad idea to short the tape today, and don’t forget Mole’s warning in the previous post:
    “Equities at shot term inflection points across the board – so pay attention! Here’s the YM which has been pinned below the 25-hour since Friday morning. Several bounce attempts have failed but the bears have been unable to push it lower (and abandon the 100-day SMA I have been posting about). As I’m typing this it’s attempting a breach and I think it’ll lure in more bids above 15,045ish.”

  • Darkthirty

    I scalp, 10 turns a day sometimes. Maybe we’re in the same game/different timeframes

  • convictscott

    All different versions of the same idea – and I’ve seen a lot of them, trying to FIX wave theory or make it objective (the best one is Tom DeMark’s). Usually the changes are sound because there are so many things wrong with EW, but the fundamental thing they are trying to do is wrong and can never be right. Predicting the future cannot be done, the markets operate in a chaos theory environment and a fat finger on a bond trader in Australia causes the bots trading es after hours to sell off, changing the shape of the candles for the start of the euro session, causing a gap down at the start of the NYSE open, which causes dip buyers to come in, which spooks nervous shorts into buying to cover…. etc etc etc.

    Small change in input = massive change in output. And ALL MARKETS ARE CONNECTED, in some way shape or form. The bond market and the stock market are connected (POMO is evidence of that), the currency markets all around the world are connected, es futures affects audjpy, the nikkei affects (to some degree) the other asian markets which affect the euro markets.

    Markets are breathtakingly complicated. About as complicated as the weather. Big banks use supercomputers to attempt to model market behaviour, and we are supposed to believe that some unknown guy back in the day scribbling off bits of paper figured out a combined theory of everything! Impossible

  • SS_JJ

    Different timeframes for sure

  • Skynard

    Really close, hard for me to tell.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    check it out, the 20 envelope.
    the 15th close, 19th open,
    and todays’ close 1652.35/1652.48 = 0.9999213 ..not bad.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p40456380227

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Bravo. well said.

  • AMCabrera

    Agree.

  • AMCabrera
  • newbfxtrader

    FOMC day tom. keep an eye on it.

  • AMCabrera

    dangit..I did not know. You have tainted me!! haha! None of my positions are heavy duty yet.

  • newbfxtrader

    lol. FOMC days can get nasty.

  • Darkthirty

    moon is full @9:45 fib time series hits @ about 10:15

  • ridingwaves

    the block trades in spy today pointed towards shorting….I’m still short…maybe the opposite is happening, bulls are the bait instead of bears…

    isnt the indecision here with all these excellent traders a sign of trend change?

  • Skynard

    Flipped /ES to long 47.5, respecting 38. Just following the bouncing ball.

  • Skynard

    Speaking of bouncing balls, long AUD div fail hourly.

  • Darkthirty

    nice. target of 62? 382 retrace.

  • Skynard

    Yes, that would be our P&F target eventually. Still wondering if this thing is going to bounce, a 62 would put us at gap fill if it does.

  • Darkthirty

    zig zag a=c would put us right there if b just completed. If it dies at 54.5 that’s 786 which would be 2 of 5.

  • Skynard

    /DX weekly showing P&F target if the case.

  • Skynard

    Short /DX 81.035

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wave wanking will get you shot.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not valid anymore or I would have posted it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s what I meant by paying attention.

  • convictscott

    Buried in a shallow grave, dug up, shot again, and reburied. Thus proving the utility of the *shallow* grave

  • phylum

    maybe now

  • fisheggs

    Like your red bars up AMC :)

  • yades

    I trully enjoy reading you, your great!

  • neowave

    We all love you… black or white, no maybe’s. Clear lines in the sand…. MMmm Jamie

  • Skynard

    Had a buy @ 901, back on the move. That was funny yesterday watching it run down with the dollar. What a bunch of shit.

  • Skynard

    Bulls need to get their motor running if they want to overcone that resistance today. Looks like starting to come alive.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • phylum

    Gotta love Ivan’s 3 bar Protect R rule!




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