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Tuesday Morning Briefing
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Tuesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleDecember 3, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Equities continued their downward march overnight and the Russell futures are now at short term support. Only that they don’t seem to be impressed to the very least and it’s possible that they’ll replicate what we’re seeing on the spoos right now:

Similar configuration here and a sudden drop led me to append the same NLSL short entry to yesterday’s afternoon post (I wrote NLBL on the first chart but it should be NLSL). Anyway – that lower 100-hour BB was first observed but eventually gave away. So barring the appearance of the marines in the coming session odds support continuation lower to daily support. It’s a bit early to judge as we just got going – however the NQ may be the one offering early clues plus it’s actually tradeable right here and now:

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UPDATE opening bell: Apologies for the late warning but today appears to be a double POMO day:

Be prepared and look at the Zero for early harbingers of troop movements.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Ronebadger

    Thanks Mole!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s double POMO day – be prepared:

  • Skynard

    Damn, /NQ holding on for now. Is this where bears get slaughtered again?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    or maybe not?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    25-hour just confirmed as resistance.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Eur/jpy setup is interesting also because it has had good correlation with /ES

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I actually noticed that as well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sooo, if the Fed is considering to provide an overnight ‘because-you-cant-trust-banks-anymore’ facility – why did we spent Trillions bailing out all those banks then:

    http://soberlook.com/2013/08/fed-contemplating-overnight-reverse.html

  • Skynard

    Trying to catch the gap, bearish if not made.

  • DarthTrader

    Cycle work has good odds for a rally for the rest of the week the sell off for rest of month

  • Darkthirty

    4 of 3 or c of 4 complete

  • BobbyLow

    Holy Black Gold Batman! Looks like POMO is helping to put a squeeze on Oil. 🙂

  • Skynard

    Okie, looking for /ES 1780

  • Bun Dance Kid

    “We have a stretch of limbo tape in between 3,478 and 3,486 – below that range I want to be short – above it long (I think the chart is crystal clear).” …. from one end to the other…

  • Skynard

    Well, dollar, gold, sillver all down. Where else is their? That is what makes this appear real!

  • Ronebadger

    Did someone mention EW? Can you count 5 waves down from 1813?
    (sorry, I just had to get this in…and no, I’m not trading on this)
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/tenpp/3

  • Skynard

    /ES res @ 93

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy – it’s quiet here! What are you guys up to today?

  • Skynard

    This sounds like a way to confuse investors, but realistically it will just raise interest rates.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why would you think that? It’s an overnight facility without risk – at least that’s how I understand it.

  • Darkthirty

    4 of 5 of 3 or ……..

  • Ronebadger

    watching coin self replicate

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ah – you finally finished that replicator project?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    reading about Mt. Gox and some one time use bitcoin card.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Sean

    The comment below from Larry Fink got me wondering about the magnitude of such a move… I found some data that shows that the US has a total of $7.1T in defined benefit pension plans and as of the end of 2012 they were allocated at 52% stocks and 27% bonds… now, given the current market run they would be allocated at 65% stocks and 19% bonds… so, to get back to the 2012 allocations they would need to sell $760B in stocks and buy $675B in bonds (this also assumes that the DB plans are run by disciples of MPT and EMH)… I doubt that they will move the total amount, but it seems that even half that would be disruptive, especially in bonds where the Fed is already taking $1T/year… and that doesn’t count the other $9T in world wide defined benefit plans or the $13T in defined contribution plans that have to be thinking the same thing after a year like this…

    Anyway, can’t really trade this day to day, but the fact that it was on Bloomberg might say something about the next several weeks (if you believe in the idea of the Newspaper Beauty Contest)… or it might say nothing at all… either way I thought it was interesting data…

    “…[P]ension funds will probably reduce their stock holdings by year-end and add to bonds in a “reverse rotation,” Fink said.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/blackrock-s-fink-says-less-worried-about-markets-now.html

  • AcoBrasil

    Watching my only short ($NDX) stand like a stonewall while markets crumble all around it.

    Day trading PBR.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – yeah, go figure 🙂

  • Skynard

    10 yr has the most direct effect on the current rate of home mortgages. Who are they trying to kid:)

  • AcoBrasil

    Nice day for an Apple rally 🙁

    PCLN looks like its good and ready for a monkey hammering following a parabolic 2013. I hope it takes the NQ down with it when it finally happens.

  • Darkthirty

    Lining up some fresh flitter

  • Darkthirty

    Not sure you’re gonna get your 1780, possible truncation

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What – did Tim Cock die?

  • Skynard

    Wait it out, it will be appl’s turn tom:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s such a complex and dynamic system plus the Fed always find ways to inject further – not going to waste too much sleep trying to figure it out.

  • Darkthirty

    exactly, way too much noise to occlude the thought processes. the one thing……….

  • AcoBrasil

    My entry was perfectly timed. I’m not going anywhere until that Swedish bus arrives 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve been holding a small long position since 11/13. Price has been all over the place and when it’s like that, I don’t mind holding if it is small and Long. However, I wouldn’t have held short through this shit.

  • Darkthirty

    ES 1783 target 1=5

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    If you think about it, you will see all this as a steaming pile of HORSESHIT!

    Every number they spin around is either a guess, or wish, or lie.
    Think about it – You can buy entire Long Bond market for about 1.5bil in margin account. I mean ALL of 30-yr bond open interest! This number is the ONLY real number you need to know. Everything else – just somebody’s agenda.

    This is how I realized that all this “QE, un-QE” way of thinking is a complete nonsense designed to confuse and misdirect. Save yourself…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good luck with that 😉

  • Darkthirty

    loaded to sell, it is looking hinkey

  • Darkthirty

    here she comes 13:15 exit time 13:48 looks interesting also

  • Darkthirty

    more luck with the flitter!

  • Skynard

    Rutroe:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    probably not a trend day?
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    She’s trending alright!