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Tuesday Road Map
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Tuesday Road Map

by The MoleJune 28, 2010

As it’s a pretty quiet World-Cup-Quarters-Pre-Fourth-of-July week I’ll keep this one quick and simple. Before we get to the chart here’s a latest clip from Karl ‘No Slave To Fashion’ Denninger:

Geezzzz – makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside….
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Updated wave count and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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We painted a little triangle today which suggested that we resolve to the downside. However, since it’s summer and there was little participation I don’t want to give the pattern too much meaning. To me it simply felt like range bound trading and whatever it is could be part of a more complex sideways Minor 2 correction. Frankly, I usually don’t count on Minuette or smaller degree and prefer to be focused on the medium term picture.

NYSE A/D ratio closed at 0.87 today (that’s a slightly bearish D/A of 1.15) – yes, a bit bearish but not heavily so – nothing that would make me strap on my helmet and a parachute. Both scenarios are still in play and we eagerly wait for equities to finally pick a &@$#*& direction. My Spidey sense tells me that the bears should be kicking ass and taking numbers right now, and not seeing an acceleration here, or a quick Minor {ii} spike, tells me that this thing could draaaaaaag out for a good part of the summer, as suggested via some incarnation of Soylent Green. Remember that this scenario does not have to play out as a simple second zigzag – we could get some kind of sideways corrective pattern and there are 11 to pick from. Maybe now may be a good time to swap my Decembers for March – I’ll probably make up my mind tomorrow.
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Before I run – Tooncez just pointed me toward a chart I posted on Mary 31st:

And when did we turn? On 6/21 😉

Quite frankly, nobody is more surprised about this as yours truly. I really don’t think I’m that good – probably sheer coincidence. And let’s not forget that the fat lady hasn’t sung yet as we have not breached this year’s low. Until that happens it’s possible we keep gyrating around and drive the bears crazy all the way through 8/18. I hope that won’t happen but we can’t have wishful thinking drive our trading.

Of course – IF 1040.78 gets taken out and 6/21 turns out to be the high of Minor 2 then we have a nice template for anticipating the bottom of Minor 3.

Until any of this happens – keep it clean, and stay frosty!

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Tooncez

    Mole,
    Looks like someone you know called the 6/21 high…
    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

  • Tooncez

    Ok, here is where I get slapped for being confused again:

    Doesn't F13 from low '09 end up in the feb timeframe '10?
    http://screencast.com/t/ZWYyNDQy

  • DudePlunger

    Thanks mole, solid outlook. Looks like the Euro/Jpy is breaking lower as I'm writing this.

  • yudhisthira

    ES still in triangle (B wave?).
    EUR/JPY dipping below floor.
    Copper strength hitting a little kryptonite?

  • jigdaddy

    you beat me to it! i just looked at my chart and it looks like it broke thru..

  • DudePlunger

    Yeah. I actually got short here at 1070 and long at 1832.50. I think we'll have 1 large move this week, and it looks to me like the first move might be to lower to 1055, but I'll buy /NQ support because chances are high we see a bounce very soon, especially into the holiday weekend.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Kick ass! I had totally forgotten about this chart. Fucking Prophet charts don't keep their state on a reboot. I have told Tim on various occasions but the guy is too busy taking his 10th vacation this year.

    Anyway – really appreciate you posting this – made it into the post :-)

  • ricebowl

    The Nikkei is selling. Hang Seng is down 1.11%. Bonds are up big. For some reason, I don't think the Asian action is just a follow-on to yesterday. IMO the triangle broke down (as it should have), and we're heading into the next wave of selling.

  • gsavli

    looks like. futures still holding so far.

  • LilSpaniard

    Something just happen? Nice 1min red candle

  • jigdaddy

    futures just got interesting

  • Graphite

    The thing is that triangles precede ENDING waves in an EW sequence. Fifth waves can always extend but, as I was saying earlier today, I think an initial move lower might be more bullish over the intermediate term, assuming the selling doesn't show particular strength.

    The action in bonds is definitely a feather in the bears' cap though. Hard to argue we're in a sustained reflation when 30-year yields dip under 4%.

  • elliott_surfs

    think this is interesting? wait til we break 1062.75 😉

  • jigdaddy

    ive been watching that level and really hope we break

  • ricebowl

    Interesting that you point that out because I was attempting to count EW earlier and came to the conclusion that we were in a 4th wave of a 1 of a 3. Disclaimer: I am not an Elliotician.

  • Graphite

    Yeah I definitely think we're in some large degree wave down from 1130 … the question is, IF we get a fifth wave bottom and bounce tomorrow, how much of that move will we retrace (and how long will it take)?

  • ricebowl

    Update:

    As others have posted, /ES is sitting just above 1063 putting it at -1.08%. Nikkei is now at -1.36%, and Hang Seng is at -1.07%. Bonds continue their climb into the stratosphere which makes me very uneasy. The 10-year yields have dropped 100 basis points (~25%!!) coincident with a modest (~10%) correction in the S&P 500. I am thinking that bonds are a bit overbought, although if equities continue to fall, then there is no reason for bonds to sell-off.

    EURUSD is sitting at $1.2253 right now. USDJPY continues to sell which has me quite confused; what happened to strengthen the Yen? I was hearing rumblings about a possible Japanese default. USDCHF is also down which is puzzling to me.

    Mysteries, mysteries, mysteries…

  • ricebowl

    Assuming we bottom today, then the W1 lasted 7 days. My pie-in-the-sky guess is that the W2 would run 2-3 days.

    The other possibility I see violates EWT, I think, and that is to count the bottom at 1040 as W3 and the bottom at 1042 as a W5. That would put us in a B down which fits much better with the price action that I see — moderate-to-low volume, no real conviction.

    But again, I am no Elliotician, and this is based on my very crude understanding of EWT.

  • elliott_surfs

    and boom goes the dynamite

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    the fat lady has sung..

    French Fin MIn says ” We have exited euro crisis” sounds like the bell has been rung for 1.10!

  • ricebowl

    Hang Seng now at -2.2%. Supposedly this is due to fears over crappy Chinese / US data. I could actually believe that.

  • ricebowl

    We broke, but nothing happened, really…

  • elliott_surfs

    for anyone that wants to work on their scalping and has TOS, take a look at this old post on thinkscripter.com http://www.thinkscripter.com/2009/02/05/scalper
    example shot
    http://screencast.com/t/NTFhODM5YzYt

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    not a criticism but where are the bulls when mkt is weak like this? Just wondering what their view is? BUY it here…cutting it..etc. Me? Was stopped out on half GBP position yday..BUT (call it lucky hunch) reshorted at same level..plus also shorted AUDUSD..only 2 positions so far..if DAX tries to fill todays gap may put out short there as well..(covered small short on gap down today)

  • Anonymous

    I’m a lurker and zero sub, but I trade bonds so I don’t have a lot to add. There are some interesting divergences though…bonds aren’t necessarily catching a great bid here with snp tanking.

  • Anonymous

    Greetings new Sub here. just like your Carolan post. Complacency
    across all media is incredible. That allows for the most ugly outcome.

  • amokta

    futures deploding?

  • sloth_bear

    Good morning everyone,
    Wow, what a ride this morning, here are two potential bounce area before the gates of hell opens:
    http://screencast.com/t/MTk0YThjZm
    My preferred spot is 1048 tomorrow where the blue and the red lines crosses (It's a perfect place to test if the bulls or the bears will win this battle)

  • sloth_bear

    Updated the green channel, which adds more evidence that this is an interesting spot:
    http://screencast.com/t/MmU1OGYwNzI

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sD_8prYOxo

    a bit of “light” humour to go with the “soccer” world cup

  • amokta

    Ive seen enough – im declaring the start of P3
    (now ive said this, futures will climb back up suddenly!)

  • tradingmom

    I have my alarm clock set to go off 1 min before the half-hour business news update. I rolled over, the news caster said “S&P futures down 12” and I thought to myself, yup, this is P3.

  • DudePlunger

    Solid overnight selloff. I was considering selling a breakdown of Monday's low @ 1065, but only held my 1 /ES short @ 1070 and 1 /NQ LOng @ 1832.50. I'm up very slightly now, and am bidding /nQ @ 1800. Either today's gap gets closed with a rally and we push higher into the july 4th weekend, or we have ourselves a nice trend day down. Either way, I'll bid support to lock in some gains and give myself the ability to sell /ES up above on weakness if need be.

  • amokta

    A Swallow does not make a Summer, but lets hope so!

  • aussiebinlaughin
  • Schwerepunkt

    I love John Cleese, but he is out of his depth in this instance. I am familiar with nearly every sport in existence and he is plain wrong about American football.

    Although most plays are called in from the sidelines now, that was not always the case. Even so, American football players actually have to think a great deal.

    The game is incredibly sophisticated. It has MANY, MANY rules. The schemes of play are extremely complex. In fact, American football players have to learn another language just to understand what each “play” is, and what their individual assignment is. When they change teams, they often have to learn a new language.

    But the really difficult thing for people who don't understand the American game is that once the offense and defense line-up against each other, each side is changing the play that has been called to take into account what they see the opposition doing, based on their personnel, formation and pre-snap movement. It is very nuanced and difficult to master this chess-game and requires everybody on the 11-man team to fulfill their assignment and understand when it has been altered. In many circumstances, it also requires that each player interpret his assignment correctly without being told. Otherwise, the play won't work.

    The team I support, the Denver Broncos (no snickers please), has an offensive playbook with roughly 3,000 plays. Now, they probably only call roughly 500-600 different plays in a season, with around 100 plays pulled out of that book and adjusted to take into account the opposing teams strengths and weaknesses in the game-plan for each game.

    It is undoubtedly a supremely violent game, but I will go so far as to make the bold statement that American football players are the most CEREBRAL and certainly the best-coached professional athletes in the world. Quarterbacks have to be very quick thinkers and function as an on-field general. The middle linebacker on defense fulfills a similar, though less demanding leadership role.

    American football players are physical freaks (some players are 6'6″, 350-lbs and can outrun most people half their size), and some of them are not so smart. Any intellectual gap is filled with intensive coaching, drill and practice. I would say the most intense coaching regimen in all of sport.

    Once you get used to intermittent nature of the game, you will come to appreciate both the violence and the complexity. I enjoy soccer a great deal. But for me, American football is the penultimate team sport.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep like any sport once you get to know it it can be very enjoyable..BTW I think you mean “ultimate” rather than “penultimate”..
    anyway it was “light” humour..that's what comedians do..pick up in nuances of game and highlight them ..a bit like artists and caricatures.. :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks for the word correction. Funny, I've been misusing that word for a long time, it seems.

    I know it was humour, but it feeds into the basic misunderstanding of the sport and American culture around the world.

    Anyhow, looks like we have some movement this morning on the indices. Is it a tease, will we test 1040?

    One thing should be kept in mind: over the last decade, or so, July is the worst month for the Canadian dollar. This currency is part of the “risk trade” being a commodity play and closely tracks global equity indices.

    On average, the Canadian dollar loses 2-cents versus the USD in July with much wider swings during the month. Google “seasonality Canadian dollar”.

  • gsavli

    or TLT with its bullish MA 50/200 cross and breach of 100 in today's premarket. :O

  • Schwerepunkt

    CAD likely to lose value over the next month. I would think, this has implications for the equity markets as well.

    http://tinyurl.com/mb66fz

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Its P&F cracks me up every time I look at it :-))

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Now if I could get such a passionate and in depth response to the charts I posted on Sunday I could die happily :-)

  • Schwerepunkt

    I understand American Football. I don't understand cycles. Lizard-brain voodoo. Like tides and menstrual bleeding.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Anybody not in the plastic surgery business believe in triple bottoms?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think that's left is you and I – seems everyone is on vacation…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    15 handle drop and nobody here to high five with – I officially hate summer season.

    Seriously – anyone left with skin in the game?

  • ricebowl

    When the World Cup ends…

  • tradingmom

    I'm here. I have to log out and log back in again every time I post (thanks, disugst) so I'm pretty quiet. I've got plenty of skin in the game and I'm got some positions to manage.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hell and blazes, this open puts us on mandatory bounce
    don't know how strong but we should bounce soon, and if it bounces from spx1054 it might bounce hard

  • Schwerepunkt

    We all have skin in the game whether we realize it or not. I'm hoping this is a 25-handle down trend day. I've noticed ES likes to move in 5-pt increments. 10-15-20-25-30. So maybe a bounce in the 1040 or 1045 area? that would be a mythical triple bottom.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Shippers getting torped today.

  • BobbyLow

    I'm just taking it all in and loving every minute of it.

    The Back Spreads I put on yesterday are working beautifully and my December SPY Spreads and March Spy Puts are acting like they are on Steroids.

    What's not to like?

    OBTW, not to get too cocky here but yesterday someone said “This Market is a Fucking Ticking Time Bomb”.

    Oh wait a minute that was me. :)

  • shortcover

    Still heavy loaded x2 and x3 ETF shorts…coupled w/ some covered calls in the fall/Jan 2011. Plenty of skin here. My FXP buy down at 35 is paying off. Never got back into VXX…but got out of TBT in the 39s. Long term bearish…want to see 9700 breeched and 8500 before I start to hedge longer than a day trade to the upside.

  • n2thezonez

    Looks like the battle between the TLT and SPX yesterday was won decisively by the TLT.

    We did get a filling of the 1055 gap on the SPX

  • BobbyLow

    -7.65 on the ZL Richter Scale and counting!

  • DudePlunger

    Watching it and seeing that big time zero signal.

  • BobbyLow

    Have you tried just refreshing the page using the refresh page button on top of your browser?

    When I get that “just a moment” signal at the bottom of the message box, (I have one right now) all I have to do is hit refresh and it fixes the problem.

    But if you have already began to write a message, just copy it and paste it back when it's fixed.

  • Scoops
  • Schwerepunkt

    bad consumer confidence

  • amokta

    Mole doesnt like bragging, but didnt me and trademom not call 'P3' (ok, mini-crash at least)

    ok, when do we close short?

  • jigdaddy

    the news must not of been so good, i just saw it trading from 1049 straight to 1044

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    what just happend ?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    some skin, lot's of burnt fur

  • psycho_puppies

    The roof is on FIRE!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Consumer confidence number 52.9 v. 62.7 last month and an expected 62.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole: on the Zero, the 5 min chart is a candle chart.. whereas the ZL chart is a line chart.. What this means is that what happens WITHIN the 5-min interval gets captures in price, but not in ZL. This can be an issue when detecting divergences..

    For example.. price may spike down 10 ES points in a given 5-min interval and the ZL indicator might also spike down a lot… but by the end of 5 min interval.. ES may gain those 10 points lost… and ZL might be back to a less negative value.

    If ZL is kept the way it is, then while detecting divegences.. the TLs drawn on the price chart must connect the open/closing levels and not the highs and/or lows

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    if it is P3 you don't want to stand in the way..ride it

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    NQ leading TF to the downside..

  • DudePlunger

    We are approaching a big time support zone here. We look very weak this morning, but anything is possible in this 1040's region.

  • BobbyLow

    If only the economists would look out their own window instead of plugging in formula's to get desired results they might be a little more accurate in their projections.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-co

  • aussiebinlaughin

    Id be surprised if we dont get at least a little bounce of 1040 area, but no way am i trying to play that game. Just gonna sit tight and ride the wave/s all the way (hopefully) to triple digits.

  • jigdaddy

    is this not hilarious…the day after mr. market covers this thing collapsed…LMAO!

  • amokta

    yes, weve been 'had' many times before, but this time it could be a time to hold shorts (or careful money management)

  • jigdaddy

    hmmm?? do i take profits or wait for this to snap 1040 and see what happens??? i think i'll flip for it :-)

  • Schwerepunkt

    put a stop loss at 1047.5 and let the market decide for you.

  • aussiebinlaughin

    Im holding a decent sized long term short which i will continue to hold for better or worse until it hits my stop. If/when it gets below 1040, I will add to that, but not before. Ive been stung way too many times trying to catch the trade both ways and this market could literally fall off a cliff any day. After a year, ok more than a year, if i missed out on the cliff top dive i would feel very stupid and cry, cry, cry. Ive set my stops in the right position as per my method, now its just sitting back and waiting/watching…I find it so much more rewarding than day trading. Each to their own of course, but Im very happy i went to med/long term trading last year.

  • Schwerepunkt

    They prefer to make something simple “rocket science.”

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    We are back below the down trending TL.. this 30m close on spx needs to be above 1052-53 spx.. Otherwise, we will back test the TL from underneath and head further down… IMO next 12 minutes will decide what the fate is for rest of the day…

    Of course downside breach can also be a fake out.. like the upside breach on friday.

  • DudePlunger

    I agree with you 100%. This is the spot here. If we break into the 1030s, this could get ugly in a heartbeat, but we could see some big time support here and shoot us back up.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    BP is the only green stock on my watchlist – LOL

  • Wave_Surfer

    Once we finish this small scale 5 wave today, we will bounce for over a week.
    Is that the general consensus here? What are the thoughts on when the small scale 5 wave ends?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I have never had issues with Mr.Market's ability to read the market. He trades what he sees. My only issue is that he creates such strong emotion and sentiment around bearishness on his blog that poor newbies are sucked into going all-in front month faz calls. At the end of the day everyone is responsible for what they trade, but at the same time, knowing fully well what his posts can do to poor newbies, I expect mr. market to behave more responsibly…

    He saw something which is why he closed his positions. And I in fact respect him for that. If I was not banned from posting there, I would have gone there and left a comment there applauding him.. He is a great trader – for someone to be wrong for such a long time and still come out making money.. he has to be truly great.. A lot of his calls have been amazing.. I just have issue that he needs to behave more responsibly given that he is in a position of power.

  • DudePlunger

    I think so. If we can hold this 1040 region, I think a strong bounce is imminent.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Before we plunge to the murky depths of sub 1010 and 9xx (if at all we get there), I think the 200day MA shorters will be shaken out nicely..

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Looks like this 30m close is going to happen below the TL

  • shortcover

    everybody looking for a bounce…we may not get it…or it may not last…imo…including the flash crash we are now testing this area for the 4th time…look out below?

  • sloth_bear

    We are testing the center of my main bullish LT channel, if we break through it may gets really nasty (SPX), it is not really well drawn but you get the idea
    http://screencast.com/t/OGFiOTRjN

  • Schwerepunkt

    Next stop is 1034.5 on ES. That is the recent bottom.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I think that this area has got to give.. Too obvious of a place to go long here.

  • AudioTactics

    I agree… Bonds are having difficulty rallying further.

    I'm long TBT at 36.25.

  • DarthTrader

    In my option account up 100% today. Raised 15% cash in case get a small bounce . . . otherwise remembering Flash crash day where I took profits on over 60% of my positions before the crash . . . not gonna happen today. I'll be ready to turn option positions into spread if we wget that kind of move

  • Wave_Surfer

    Looks like we are starting wave 5 after the triangle and so that means after a few more minutes, we will bounce to correct for the move down that started 6/21, which I am guessing would be in the 3 to 8 day range?

    Or maybe the 5 wave already happened and this is just a real small scale wave 2 or b. Whether it sets a new low should determine which.

    Anyone else trying to wave count today's movement?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If anyone looking to catch knife, keep an eye on commodity names AND IYR – they perk up the quickest and the fastest. I am not suggesting you trade these to catch knife. IYR has been a good leading indicator of whats gonna happen.

    F**king BP is still green.. and getting greener by the minute – LOL

  • Wave_Surfer

    With as over bought as the 2 minute is and it is having troubles breaking through the median line on bollinger bands (again on the 2 minute), I am guessing 1 more move down, but I am not confident, since this bounce up feels fairly strong.

  • amokta

    had to nip out, and now i see spx has bounce back – erasing most of the down move (could do)

  • TrustFundCowboy

    Looking good. This bounce seems to have legs. Bonds are incredibly overbought and are due for a correction. Outside of a P3 situation, I think bonds have to consolidate before they move higher, which would mean a decent bounce in equities.

  • ricebowl

    SPX cash bottomed at 1045. If that holds, that's *really* bullish.

  • ricebowl

    ^VIX is sitting at 34. This makes me tend to believe that we'll get follow-through into tomorrow. On the way down we always exit the upper bollinger before the bleeding stops.

  • Tronacate

    Support ES…..1038, 1014, 991.5, 939.75

  • DudePlunger

    991.50 and then 939.75? That's a very wide range.

  • raised_by_wolves

    (SLV/GLD) is at a bounce or break zone revisiting this line again . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dump whatever browser you arevusing and get Google Chrome.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Word – although here in L.A. The Apple stire store was packed yesterday (was returning an old keyboard).

  • ricebowl

    Same happens to me, and I use Chrome. The “Post” button changes to “Just a moment…” and stays that way until I reload the page.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dude – it's an oscillator!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    first topping sign

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who are you talking about?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Trading on consensus – works every time – LOL :-)

  • ricebowl

    People returning their iPhone 4s so soon?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nope – everyone was checking out new products – I was really stunned given that it was Monday.

  • n2thezonez

    Every time that I walk past the Apple store here in Charlotte, the place is packed like a night club. On one occasion that had someone working the door.

  • jigdaddy

    xtrends

  • ricebowl

    Soon, I think. I was tempted to close my shorts out at 1045, but I think it's best to wait this one out.

    A proposito, quem cres que vai ganhar entre Espanha e Portugal? 😉

  • OldChicago

    Down vol at the first half hour was big on most tech beta. I would agree a follow thru after a 3-5% down across the world market, for those who didn't get to sell today.

  • derekste

    same story at my local Apple store… although I went on a Saturday afternoon, so I expected some busy-ness.

    funny how one small Apple store had more people in it than an entire Best Buy.

    I was happy though… was able to trade my severely abused iPhone 3GS for a shiny new one (probably a refurb, but who cares). Replaced no questions asked… I can only imagine they gave one to me because they are trying to write down existing 3GS stock since nobody is going to buy one now that the 4 is out…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i HOPE (hope is allowed in football) that portugal wins

    i was also tempted to close shorts but then again the rebound was nicely contained so far and 1060's is a possible final top before some serious fun

  • Wave_Surfer

    Well my thinking was that the rats here are smarter than the average rats and depending on who was saying what and what their reason was, it might affect how I trade. After all if I ONLY wanted to depend on myself, I wouldn't be here.

    It doesn't look like too many people, even here, are trying to count 5 waves down after finishing the triangle yesterday. Shrug. I do what I do, but I thought I would at least consider the thoughts of others, especially if someone could point out a short term wave count that made sense to me that I had not previously seen.

    On the other hand, I can see how it could sound like I was trying to democratically have other people make my decisions for me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can't believe how dead itnis in here. See – I kept telling everyone most of the hobby bears would miss out on the phone. Summer or not – this proves to me that I was right. Gen Y has little patience.

    Well, whoever is left – keep it frosty – don't panic. This is just a tiny first blip.

  • BobbyLow

    10 Year opened under and still is < 3%

  • amokta

    Ok, anyone got a view on gold, or is this too complicated to make a call on ST/IT

  • WTFed

    There's probably more of us out here than you think but trying to get that P.O.S. Disgust (Props tradingmom) to work is sometimes too frustrating while trying to trade. BTW, I switched over to Chrome and it dominates disqus and its issues. Thx mole

  • Wave_Surfer

    Does that mean you don't think we are gonna bounce for a week or so (correct for the move down from 6/21) or are you talking longer term?

    I think we have been in P3 for a while, but even if that is true, P3 will last for years and there will be plenty of time for lots of moves up and down.

    I didn't think it was too dead here. After all, we shouldn't over react on this down move since “this is just a tiny first blip.” Maybe we are listening and agreeing with you and pacing ourselves.

  • DudePlunger

    Gen Y has very little patience, but I have been here all morning though pre-occupied with lots of other stuff (family is going nuts). Unfortunately, I think I'll be headed to the hospital today as I have a bug bite on my right arm that keeps getting worse, Oh well.

  • Tronacate

    Added 1 TF contract short @624

  • ricebowl

    Or they ran out of capital.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    place a stop at 0.152 and go short

  • Tronacate

    This is a third wave on multiple levels…..let your profits run

  • Farathall

    bug bite, or evil rate bite?

  • sloth_bear
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nasty bacteria out there these days – you are smart to play it safe. Get better!

  • DudePlunger

    Thanks, but it does suck that I can't have time to myself on a beautiful trend day down.

  • jigdaddy

    im looking forward to the day you say soylent green is out!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm am always thinking long term. That's where the money is :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm in cash now. I will reshort if a new low is made. Unless a new low is made, I'm assuming this is a 5th wave like this one. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • BobbyLow

    It might be kind of dead but IMO the quality of posts are still great and that's more important.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes Chrome rules and it's faster than Firebugs.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we're almost bottoming in what seems like a B

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Last week – not this week. Sorry, I'm just being honest (which is not widely appreciated).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are a few handles away from that.

  • Tronacate

    Wonder how soon before people look at their pile of phone and computers and add up the money spent and say “This is FUCKING STUPID!!” The time is gonna come…..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    check the weekly with the centenials… slv:gld gives a nice 1-2 i-ii of some kind and a short seems safe to .139

  • rae17

    It looks like we're starting a C wave up now.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, did you see this chart of mine?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    I think there is a high probability that this is a 5th wave and that the tape is going to bounce up the next couple days. But what do I know. Also, I will be the first to reshort if a new 180-day low happens today.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it turned too soon for me to feel certain…

  • Tronacate

    If this get legs…… Fractured follies http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • raised_by_wolves

    How high will she, er C, go?

  • sloth_bear

    Here is a possible scenario for EOD:
    http://screencast.com/t/YjI0N2UwM

    Am I too bearish or what?

  • sloth_bear

    It plays out perfectly so far!

  • Scoops
  • amokta

    The dilithium crystals seem to be failing?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think it's time I tell Technorati that the Chevy Malibu is not right for me.

  • gsavli

    was just about to ask you for your view and approx. targets.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you din't see my doubt about C because of how it turned?

    NOW might be the end of B, therefore a flat and C could be a very bearish 1051-1055 or give buls gunpowder to 1070's?

  • psycho_puppies

    I think once it's really lond and you have thousands of posts a day it may be time for another wave 2. uggggggggg

  • raised_by_wolves

    This fractal chart of yours has been bookmarked. This would fit with a intermediate 1 of primary 3 view of things. Question though: If the proportions were to hold tightly, wouldn't it look more like this?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • Tooncez

    someone else call the zl div. I'm trying to ignore it.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I have an order to reshort if SPX (1) breaks 1036 or (2) pushes up to 1077. I will have to keep an eye on 1051-1055 however.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'd like 456 on $oex taken out with extreme prejudice and then a backtest…, but i'm afraid it will bounce from there to 509

    that and sub 993 for spx

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    What is this Malibu joke – I don't get it

  • BobbyLow

    OK, fair enough.

    I suppose a lot could depend on how some members have been positioned. I know that the better I'm positioned the more “chatty” I can get.

    As far as positioning goes, if I had been doing with Options since March of 2009, what I have doing over the past few weeks, I would at the least be $25K better off than I am right now. But that's a coulda, shoulda, woulda and doesn't count.

    Yes I still have a strong bearish bias but the difference has been being able to hold my nose and trade the Long Side on a shorter term basis while continuing to build my Longer term Short positions. I only considered the Long side as insurance and any losses from that side would be dwarfed by gains from the short side and that has been the case. I have to give credit to you and ES for helping me to mentally be able to trade Both Sides at the same time.

    And yes, I believed that I had to be in the game before the event happens because of gaps and being forced to chase. Been there done that and it sucks. :)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I read this somewhere this morning….

    Thou who shall get cocky shalt get a cock up a ur ass – for both bull n bear alike… Important to keep one's head level and in place – otherwise Ms. Market doesnt waste much time to whup one's ass..

  • OldChicago

    A PPT job middle of lunch hour? Large vol on banks.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    FYI: Consensus all around seems to be that 1040 WILL NOT hold. Thats all I am gonna say :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    In my mind this is Pai Mei's five point palm exploding heart technique. So, $OEX may still have five steps before death.

  • ricebowl

    It was pretty obvious the last time we bottomed at 1042. 😉

    IMO it looks like it will hold today. If it doesn't, then I'd be betting on another flash crash. Tomorrow, however…

  • raised_by_wolves

    I think it will hold, but I will damn well reshort if it doesn't.

  • BobbyLow

    Well I for one made a promise to myself to never, ever allow myself to become overconfident because the market has the ability to chew me up and spit me out at anytime.

    But having said that, after having shit rubbed in my face by Bulls for so long, I'd be a fool not to enjoy this and I am.

  • Tronacate

    True……but I believe wavewise we are in a different scenario ……….but you're right…….

  • Scoops

    Is there a Ninjatrader addon for that?

  • Tronacate

    Haven't seen fa-q in awhile…….where is that prick?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    We all need to remember what happened at the 200dma.. which was broken and bulls were rejoicing..

  • Scoops

    Margin clerks making breakfast and sharpening their pencils.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I prefer to wait for a break of 0.1495.

  • DarthTrader

    Adding to AEM puts on Premise we stay down thru close and Margin selling starts to hurt Everything . . . including Gold and Gold shares

  • tradingmom

    I like that premise.

  • AudioTactics

    I agree that we should see some consolidation as its been a massive run… and I would really like to see 10yr yields close above the 3.00% level today or at least a ZB close under my 10/2/09 to 5/25/10 high print trend line (~126'20). But that would be probably be too good to be true.

    And, for the longer term, you could be right… it looks like we're in a movie called “Japan”.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    any TA reason?

  • Tronacate

    TF has furthest to fall before getting back in the 60 min channel……expect it to break daily lows

  • Schwerepunkt

    Death crosses all over the place. Totenkopf.

  • raised_by_wolves

    When the line holds on the weekly, it is frequently overthrown a slight amount on the daily and intraday. Perhaps I didn't draw it precisely enough. So, I looked for intraday BB support, which we currently have but barely.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • Tronacate

    AAPL seems to be coiling up……..adx dropping……

  • UayBalam

    I'm here, just at work, everytime I look at my positions I'm up another 10% haha lol!!

  • TrustFundCowboy

    Looks like you should get those levels. Markets during the summer tend to hit noon and then just keep drifting whichever way they were heading…

  • DarthTrader

    Yield Curve Flattening . . . drying up the Bankster Gravy Train

  • Schwerepunkt

    He flew from the Costa Rican cloud jungle, to the Gobi Desert and is playing with his gerbils.

  • AudioTactics

    I guess we'll see what happens… stocks are worrisome so we could have a sketchy close.

    What type of bonds do you usually trade?

    Are you in anything today?

  • tradingmom

    TLT 5 min sitting right on 50 MA support now…will it bounce? http://screencast.com/t/MzQyMTAx

  • bshah

    Mole,
    Ple don't kill me… , but do we just want market to crash to 0.. I mean it's fallen 230 pts . S&P has dropped to 1045 from 1200 range.. so it should be enough.. Just being optimist..

  • tradingmom

    GS is coiling for a move…lower highs and higher lows…5 min just moved over 20 ema. http://screencast.com/t/MmFlY2M2

  • DarthTrader

    We need a reversion to the mean . . . to squeeze all the fluff and liars manipulations out of the stock, Bond Housing market etc. That is all Bankster Games used to fleece an unsuspecting public

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Citigroup trading halted on circuit-breakers

  • tradingmom

    APKT coiling too — has had a very bullish bias until today. http://screencast.com/t/M2JhOGQ0N

  • DarthTrader

    Thanks Mom . That relates to the next post I was planning on . . .

    Bear Flags or Pennants are everywhere on 10 minute charts . . .

    Careful Bulls could be dangerous

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    heard it is down 17%

  • tradingmom

    GS 1 min chart — coil broke down, then recaptured. http://screencast.com/t/ZDFjYmE2N

  • Tronacate

    Wow……that should make people really want to dump the sucker

  • Wave_Surfer

    C is down 5.4% when I look at it.
    strange.

  • Schwerepunkt

    They had their own little flash crash. I think it is a warning to get out.

  • gsavli

    why?

    i saw it was halted, but on circuit breakers? it's not down that much.

  • Schwerepunkt

    It dropped briefly to 3.32, or -17%. Circuit breakers trigger at 10%.

  • WTFed

    C is down 5.25%

  • gsavli

    i checked it out now. you know what is weird? it happened on virtually no volume. wtf?

  • ricebowl

    Even with that drop, SPX is still overvalued. Also, the lower SPX goes, the higher its yield goes, and the more attractive stocks become.

    On a more philosophical note, you can't say that it's better or worse for stocks to trend lower as they are. Higher prices are good for sellers but not good for buyers; lower prices are good for buyers but not for sellers. If all human beings are equal, then neither condition is better than the other. This is true of any asset class be it stocks, bonds, or *ahem* houses. Being also young myself and having just bought a house in Florida, I am glad that housing prices have come way down. Even enjoying a salary somewhere between 50-100% of the mean for this area, five years ago I could not have afforded a house without a balloon loan or ARM of some kind.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I show volume of 5.8 million shares on the bar in question on a 25-tick bar chart. That's ridiculously high volume.

  • gsavli

    might be imprisoned in costa rica for having close underage female friends.

    or in an STD clinic, who could tell. it would be nice to hear from him though.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • gsavli

    that's more like it. i was checking a 1 min scahrt and there was nothing.

  • ricebowl

    Here comes the confirm of new lows. I'm guessing the next target is 1000~1010? The ultimate target is clearly 870~950.

  • BobbyLow

    Dang, wouldn't ya know I've got to leave around 2PM for a dentist appointment. I hope to be back in time for the close.

    If we are able to hold these levels through 2PM then I would say that we have a chance for at least 40 handle's down on the S&P. No Chart, just that this is what happens when the SHTF.

    Vix up 16% – Tranny new Lows – 10Yr Yield working back to LOD – Financials at LOD – Russell at LOD etc.

  • Schwerepunkt

    TRIN bollinger bands are compressed to neutron star levels. Which way will it bust?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Schwerepunkt/fo

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Does it give off massive amounts of X-Radiation?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Gamma.

  • tradingmom

    I've been kknown to call in sick for appointments that turn out to be poorly timed…but I might have a problem. 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's a nice cocktail – just add a cherry!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, you know what this pattern is, right? A leading diagonal traditionally gets very very ugly when it resolves.

  • nyxjf

    What do you make of the divergence mole?

  • jigdaddy

    are we 1pt away from taking out SPX lows??

  • Tooncez

    you mean between 8:30 and 9:15-ish? My interpretations is that it played out but was muted because its a 'major down' day. IMVHO.

  • raised_by_wolves

    New 10-day /TF low. New 180-day /ES. EUR/JPY not confirming (yet).

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Comparing ES from now and 2 months ago is not correct. The correct thing to do is to compare SPX and RUT levels.

    When ES put in the low of 1038 back in May, the premium was much different from the premium right now. Same holds true for TF/RUT as well

  • Schwerepunkt

    We are perilously close to a Hindenberg Omen.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    More to go IMO.. not much though.. Sentiment has turned way too bearish too soon.. This is what was missing on the last two visits to 1040 area. I think we need to breach it by 5 to 7 points more.. and that should do it

  • Wave_Surfer

    I see that.
    It looks like it might be finishing wave 4 of a leading diagonal.

    I knew that asking here what other people thought, might net something good.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Isn't there a long check list that has to be fulfilled before a Hindenberg Omen?
    Do you know how far along that check list we are?

  • raised_by_wolves

    On the one tit, there's no new 180-day low for SPX or RUT.

    On the other tit, there's a new 5-year low for EUR/JPY.

    On the third tit, there's no new intraday low for EUR/JPY.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks for that. I looked it up again.

    Criteria

    The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen has five criteria:
    That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
    That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75. This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
    That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
    That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
    That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
    These measures are calculated each evening using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. The occurrence of all five criteria on one day is often referred to as an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen.
    A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal.

    ——-
    Not sure about all the conditions at this point.

  • elliott_surfs

    SWPunk covered it, but if you wanted the wiki link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen
    😉

  • WTFed

    I'll be damned. Are they going to save this today?

  • Wave_Surfer

    Oops. my bad. I thought you were talking about today's action, not RBW's multi-year graph.

    I think it still helped me though, because it looks like it might have done a wave 3 down, 4 up and diagonal wave 5 down today.

    I am not real sure that looks like a leading diagonal to me. Are you saying the whole move down from May is just 1 leading diagonal?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    And yes, there is Rammstein :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Probably – but that doesn't mean the bears will not win in the end.

  • raised_by_wolves

    My intuition informed me that this pattern was uber bearish. I didn't have a name for it though. Thanks for supplying that. So, how many times does it tend to go up and down?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Notice how the candle wicks have always touched the bottom line but the closes have been above the middle line. Will that behavior repeat or will this time be different?

  • TrustFundCowboy

    I trade everything, cash and futures, from Eurodollars out to 30 cash. I've got flatteners on in the back and some flies on in the middle of the curve. Been a while ride! That 30 year didn't catch a bid for the past week. I dabble in bunds here and there when I see good opportunities as well.

  • AudioTactics

    Very nice…

    I used to trade interest rate swaps so it appears that we have some similar experience.