Half Year Observation

And we are back at the 1300 mark – which as I pointed out will need to hold today lest bad things may happen (to the longs). As I’m writing this there is little mojo in the session and which way it’ll swing is anyone’s guess. But the subs may recall my general outlook which is that the longs are increasingly running out of rope (to hang themselves with) and at this point time is truly money. Let me show you guys something else – which in the daily excitement is easily forgotten:

As we just passed the half year mark last Friday it’s once again time to take stock and review the current year’s progress as well as the momentum of the ongoing trend’s. If we are still in a bull market then where are we really? Well, the picture is less than rosy – since the beginning of this year we have been simply bouncing between 1270 and 1370 – a clean 100 handle channel. Thus, those two clusters now assume great importance as breaching either will most likely be accompanied by a lot of follow through.

So as suggested a few weeks ago by Volar, Scott, and yours truly – we could be at the cusp of a trend change here. And what I’m seeing on this chart is the type of setup that needs to resolve to the upside by the end of this month or the odds are now starting to shift toward the bearish side. I’m also keeping my eye on that POMO chart – as you may recall, the swamp has to be drained completely before we may see some bearish fireworks. But until that happens be on your guard – being the first bear at the table usually means you wind up the one being trapped. Patience, grasshopper!

I will poke around today and tomorrow and then report back with some more momentum measures for the subs. I hope Volar will also chime in with his sentiment update (hint hint).

Many thanks again to everyone for being so patient during last week’s server debacle as well as during the weekend site migration. I think everything is humming along fine now and the site is again flying, which delights me to no end. As you can imagine not having to put out fires on the technical front each and every day is a big load off my mind.

Cheers,

Mole