Post Labor Day Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

It’s been pretty quiet over the long weekend and I don’t see much additional context except for the fact that the E-Mini is still trading above its 100-day SMA. There’s a bit of compression on the 25-hour Bollinger and perhaps we’ll see more volatility later in the session.

The Dollar continues to observe its 25-hour SMA and unless we see a solid breach here (not just a quick scare-the-children stab lower) I expect it to push higher.

The inverse happening on the EUR/USD obviously although it’s starting to flatten out a little. Watch our for attempts to breach the 25-hour which make for good inflection points – if there are ST candle patterns (via CrazyIvan.EURUSD.30) then use them.

Here’s the volatility profile courtesy of the CrazyIvan.EURUSD.480 – as you can see it’s currently in Bear/Quiet mode and that usually makes for shitty trading. Which is the reason the 480 is currently filtering long and short trades. Now that’s something we do for automated trading systems as it keeps us out of sideways or low probability tape over the long term. But the downside of any type of volatility filters/measures is that they are inherently lagging. The benefit of trading discretionary is that you can often anticipate and catch the first big moves as volatility starts kicking in.

Silver is looking interesting on the ST panel as the 25-hour just breached the 100-hour SMA. I am going to try a very speculative long position here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If it continues higher I’ll slowly build it up.

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