Another day, another option.

Berk here.

After being out of this world for most of this week, I have had some chance to breathe, and take a little look at the recent market action.  This is an updated count on my devious road-map that I think the MMs could be following.  I had mentioned when I tossed it up a few days back that the count would be valid with another new high, and here is how it would count.

Updated count

Two things of importance… 1079.46 can’t be broken if the labeled count is going to hold.  If we break that, then the final push up I am looking for, before turning down in the C wave of (X), will not be coming, and the previous high, will, in fact, be the top of the B wave.  No folks, I am not growing horns (though some of y’all may remember that I am occasionally quite fond of my Flava-Flav viking helm in times like this), I am just neutral until I am given SOLID evidence on at least a DAILY level.  This suits my trading style…  So for those of y’all that feel the need to say “this is the top” at the abosolute highest tick of the day, keep going.

If we do get the final push up (OPEX, as we all know, stranger things could happen), then I am merely looking for a gap fill at 1098 ($SPX), before turning down in C of (X).

The other interesting thing today was the gap above the gap (indicated in a green box).  We poked into it yesterday (not enough to close it), and then jumped over it Wednesday morning.  That tells us that the market REALLY knows that level is important, especially since it was our first bearish gap.  This will be an important level to watch how the market reacts.

A little $VIX here could go a long way (no puns intended).  A few things to note about this chart.  1) The confirmed buy signal.  How many of y’all went long when that signalled over a week ago?  2) The 2 daily closes (3 with today, which will be a weekly close also) outside of the purple trend channel removes us from the “Bearish Break-out Zone.”  That means, to me, that I wouldn’t get too short here without a sell signal at least triggering.   Now if my count above for $SPX is correct, I imagine we should get some interesting $VIX action, but with all forecasts, we will just have to see how it plays out.

Updated $VIX. Below purple channel "no bueno"

Skål!