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Another day, another reversal…
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Another day, another reversal…

by MoleSeptember 8, 2008

I only regret that my “Take a load off Fannie” post was not on Thursday, rather than a week or so ago, but we can’t win them all.  Check out this picture I saw today that helps show how convoluted our fiscal policies were (this was drawn in the 60’s).  Amazing what insight we can have…

If you are not in the market, be glad, because the whipsaw action today was rough.  At this point, the trend seems fairly dead.  We have moved up and down, and back up again.  But, we all know that the largest moves up, including today’s 350 point move, complete with gap up, of which we have had 5 in the last 2 months, occur in down trends.  Very soon the markets will have chosen their fate, and we will inform you as soon as we can be certain.

Let me recap since a lot that we have talked about has happened.  First and foremost, we got a confirmed $VIX signal (I will discuss this in a posting sometime tomorrow).  The $SPX closed inside the 2.0 BB, quite far inside really.  This is a serious indication, and should not be ignored.  Normally we would expect a serious reversal, and this was a signal we were waiting for on the topside with $COMPQ.  Finally, breadth has reversed, yet again, significantly, but not too far considering our 2% ($SPX) retracement.

This is something some of you have seen frequently, and some of you may not have seen at all.  It is interesting to use, and is frequently useful (to me) around disputed tops/bottoms for a measure of resilience.  It is the New High/New Lows indicator, but not the Mclellan Oscillator.  Obviously, the markets closed up big today, and we would expect to see the swell of positive breadth and volume that we did.  We would also expect to see a growing number of new 52-week highs if the target moon scenario was to be properly supported.  Here is what we saw today.  And the second chart is what we have been seeing since late ’06.  Not a sign of a healthy market.


Another thing I would like to mention is from an e-mail I sent to Mole last night outlining my thoughts.  Basically, I said that this rally was on very low volume in the futures markets, and had retraced to appropriate fibonacci levels in an A-B-C fashion.  We agreed to suspend our stops, and see how the markets treated these levels.  I also asked him to look at 12-12-07.  It also depicts a day that was screwed over by government intervention.  Coincidentally, it was also towards the beginning of a wave 3, this one just in wave (1).  I was talking specifically about the $INDU, but I would like to point out the similarities in the $COMPQ’s candle.

We also got a BB reversal on the $COMPQ, the $NDX however, did not.  The $NDX has fallen 10% since the highs struck days after the reversal signal.  We must respect the chance of a rally back up, but we should also recall that this type of action is common in our preferred wave 3 of (3) scenario.  This move will unravel the conventional wisdoms of the market.

If the Nasdaq indexes, which are tracing out the most clear wave patterns, were to reverse from here, we would expect this behavior to be in an expanded flat formation.  That action would move up in 5 waves into the 2030 ($NDX) range, assuming today’s lows were the bottom of B.  Here are the preferred chart count and the alternate flat interpretation.  We would expect this rally to last long enough to allow for continued selling in a later wave 3.  It could last as long as a few months, holding up until the election is past.  Obviously, breaking our March lows would allow us to eliminate this alternate count.

There are many things to support each case here.  We have 2% up on blue chip or a weakening tech sector which threw a full 3% reversal at one point.  We have a $VIX buy signal coupled with a BB reversal, typically a VERY strong sign.  Though we did not see the same reversal flashed in the higher beta $NDX, which put in a lower low today.  There are valid wave counts to support either case.  Long term breadth supports the bear, while the short term rally showed fervor today.  The bulls have Beanie.  The bears have real life and the government.  That said, I will return the short term indicator to mixed, because frankly, who the hell knows?!?

I would like to talk about a few of the picks I have thrown out over the past week and gauge their performance.  Some of them, LFG, MBI, GCI, didn’t get taken, or got the axe.  But the select few that made it through were leading the way.    GOOG was behaving like a champ today, and helping to drag the $NDX back to where it belongs.  Get some if it bounces.

BIDU has dropped 90 pts (at lows) from my initial entry, and nearly 20% (60 pts) from our early reco.  Big volume on the exhaustion rally candle today.  A potential triangle would be targeting the 230 range, and we have found new resistance around 285.

FSLR needs to break through its gap resistance (illustrated by purple) before we can target 175 or 150.  Both have nice resistance clusters around them.  Either way, it seems the support shelf has been broken, and with today’s action, retested with a rejection.  The short term “triangle,” if we can call it that, target has been met, but I think there is more to go.

I will leave you with a chart that Mole sent me today, illustrating the strength of the overhead resistance.  I am really looking forward to the rest of the week, as I imagine by its end, we will have but one remaining choice.  Keep with us as we will keep you posted as to the developing wave pattern.

Get a good breakfast tomorrow, the early action should be telling.  As the Japanese say, the first hour is the rudder, setting the direction for the market’s daily action.

Skål!


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Love the banking system graph/picture. Also, good analysis. I have been almost strictly day trading futures in this mess + throwing on IC spreads one spread side at a time (added a nice set of bull call spreads Friday). Seems the way to go while things are in the blender.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    I was looking at Mole's picture – do those 2 guys look like 2 brothers- fractals?
    what do you think?
    http://forkoholic.com/images/2fractalsm.jpg

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Hey Berk,

    Asian markets giving back the previous day gains in the rudder hour.

    Here my thoughts, which Mole asked me to repost in your new post:

    http://moontrader.wordpress.com

    It seems that we're looking at the same picture from different angles. Love that!

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    I mean not actual Mole's picture ;-))
    I wanted to say “Mole's chart” :))

  • molecool

    I friggin' hope so – after all there are plenty of naughty sites online to satisfy your devious pleasures.

  • molecool

    Thanks moony – much obliged. Good stuff…

  • molecool

    Man, you've got a good eye, Serg. Yes, if you take the first one and stretch it you get something like the 2nd fragment. Not exactly but close enough. Let's hope the correlation continues.

  • molecool

    Well, you are correct – until the day you are wrong. What I mean by that (and it seems almost every trader I talk to, except Berk, seems to disagree with me on this) is that you won't get the chance to position yourself for the big drop once it happens. You get those gyrations for days and sometimes weeks. And then one day – boom – Dow drops 300/400 points and you don't want to chase it, right? Next day, the same thing – another 300/400 point drop – and this time you might grab a few positions but you already are paying for high volatility. You also think that a correction is overdue now, but it doesn't happen. By the time you get some of your positions in the market dropped 1000 points or more.

    I have been using every rip to bulk up on puts. Not gonna lie to you – have seen my share of gut checks and elevated adrenalin levels. And maybe got lucky today when the market turned around (although I DID have a hedge going). The day traders keep making nice dough right now and I'm missing some of those plays. But if we get that drop we're waiting for we'll be smiling to the bank. If we push up from here I simply hedge and close out my positions.

    Not everyone shares our conviction when it comes to the 'big drop' – so, I'm glad if are able to eek some profits out of this market. Today was a great day for me but I also got lucky. Not trying to tell you how to trade, but wanted to share my/our approach. You need to do whatever your risk tolerance and market outlook makes you feel comfortable.

  • Bartholomy

    Action … today we had the biggest financial rescue ever. 200 Billions ( debt communism )
    And the market didn`t see to have a correct response.
    In my book, it's clear… real-estate will go lower, money will be tight, and consummer squeezed.

    But, we are now already at 61.8% retracement, can this really get lower…
    Or maybe it's only the $US value that make the rules, will this be the new trend dollar up ?

    I think it will be bear, but it will take time.
    We are in a expending triangle pattern, very rare in technical analysis, but you know the end… worm city.

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    Funny, I blogged about the same thing today.

    http://lcmarket.blogspot.com/2008/09/you-have-t

  • molecool

    Nice…

    “gift” trades today: BIDU, GOOG, FSLR – made more than up for the bounce back.

  • Dave_San

    Greetings Evil Speculators…

    If you guys keep up this devilish work, someone at the PPT is gonna start forcing fades on you.

    Nice report Berk. Mole, I have that same down sloping resistance line as you present in the SPY chart.

    Conditions are ripe for the elevator shaft. Slipped from above the 50 dma over the 20 dma, hard break below both, snap back rally to confirm (on dastardly sneaky PPT/Treas/Gov/Crony action) resistance, and now, without another similar action, it should be time to roast some bull steaks on the BBQ. Maybe a last gasp on the open to confirm the resistance above (30 min stochs not quite overbought and rolling) but it shouldn't matter.

    The Phony and Fraudy takeunder isn't going to help Hapless Harry Homeowner, Distressed Debra Debtor or Cringing Carl Consumer, and the Banking Cabal, well, many of them got their capital ripped off the balance sheets. Gosh, shucks, you phuques…

    Moontrader, nice stuff… Your turn date of around Sept 19 or 22 confirms another source I have. What methodology are you using? It looks like fractals, the other uses Fibonacci ratios of the trading days between prior tops and bottoms.

    Anyway, good trading, and take no prisoners.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    That guy claims “0% probability of a 30% stock market crash on a 50 days time horizon”
    http://valuearea.blogspot.com/2008/09/september

  • toad37

    Rock and roll… can't wait to see what tomorrow brings 🙂

  • calibear

    I'm like that $SPX chart. Gives me a bit more relief on my short positions. Will sleep better tonight. See ya guys tomorrow.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Mole, what's your target for this bounce?
    1217-1274=57
    1274-1247=27
    1268-1247=21

    (A) – 1274

    1247(B) (C) 1304 C=A; (C) 1282 C=0.61A
    1241(B) (C) 1298 C=A; (C) 1275 C=0.61A

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Offtop: if McCain wins elections but dies before he's sworn in who's gone be da president? Sarah?

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Mole, do you have an intraday chart between 12/11/07- 01/24/08
    say 30 min, maybe 60 , just to compare fractals
    My software allows only last 20 days intraday data

  • Virginia Jim

    Great analysis. I have exactly the same count on NDX and I would also be expecting an expanded flat correction but one notation. NDX/QQQQs have closed below the trendline up from the 2003 low (2003 trendline) by more than 3% AND have exceeded the July 15 low (Edwards/Magee symetrical triangle bearish breakdown test). Yesterday, I had the Fib 38.2% retrace at 44.44 and 2003 trendline at 44.25. QQQQs topped at 44.22, a kiss back failure. Today, the trendline is a tad higher, maybe 44.31, hard to be exact with a 5 year trendline. But suffice it to say, QQQQs might not make it to 44.45. Today might be the last really good chance to get short with the third test of the trendline (Friday dipped below and closed above, yesterday broke it and closed below it and today is likely the final kiss). Close significantly above the 2003 trendline and I'll have to re think some things. My pretty short term downside for QQQQs is….32.10. Good luck, Jim

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Wow…The $NDX had lost more than 10% in a small matter of weeks. Something tells me we will hit 30% before anyone can think about it.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes. It will be historical either way. Same thing if Barrack wins and gets shot before he is sworn in.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nice….32 is one of my first targets for the QQQQ too. Good work, keep it up.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    When I get to the office today, I will check one on my platforms to see if I can get that data. Most of us cannot get that far back with intraday data. We will see.

    Skål!

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Yep, tomorrow LHC will suck everything down into the balck hole 😉

    You'd better read this today, because it's possible the world will end tomorrow
    http://blog.wired.com/geekdad/2008/09/the-large

  • molecool

    This is completely useless – you cannot predict market crashes. IMHO…

  • molecool

    Don't have that either – would have to buy a chart package. Maybe as my X-mas present

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Hope everyone grabbed some OI on this break out. Moving fast so you might wait for a bounce if you missed entry.

    Skål!

  • molecool

    FSLR, CCJ, OI and BIDU printing some major coin this morning. Hope you guys got in there…

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    every time Bush speaks, market goes down 🙂
    coincidence ? ;-))

  • C.C. Rider

    VIX preparing for patented X-over ala , 6/8/08.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&

  • Dave_San

    It is not possible to be 100% in your predictions, citing both timing and size, but there are tools and indicators that are very helpful.

    You should read this: http://www.safehaven.com/article-3880.htm
    and/or this: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mc

    The author is the same author as the subscription service I pay for…

  • molecool

    I love it when he does that.

  • molecool

    So far so good 😉

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    So Bush is beanie in disguise. I knew it!!!

  • calibear

    FSLR seems to have found support around 200. You still holding?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Ya…I am still holding. I think we will fall a little more after this lunch rally.

    NQ is still painting clear patterns, and they are all pointing lower. Use this rally to add to some positions if you need to.

    Skål!

  • calibear

    Thanks for your insight. I initiated a position.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    BTW is there a HINDENBURG OMEN
    indicator or a list of recent once online? My software does not have HO indicator

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    you mean You cannot predict market crashes?! ;-))
    dude, you have to learn how!

    Every market crash was within Mars-Uranus crash cycle. But not every crash cycle resulted in a crash.
    We're right now in M-U Crash cycle since Aug 6,08 til April 09

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You are in good company…

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Yes, you are 🙂

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Fresh fork report, looks impulsive ;-))
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spxforking090908.jpg

  • molecool

    Always get dizzy looking at that chart – but yes, an impulse it is. Making coin today?

  • molecool

    Remember that buy signals often fail – in particular in bear markets. You sometimes need 2 or 3 of those suckers. I prefer the reliability of the sell signal.

  • molecool

    Well, at least I die rich – after today's tape 🙂

  • molecool

    Remember I don't follow those.

  • molecool

    I stick with my EWT – thank you very much – LOL

    I did however buy 'The Spiral Calendar' and I think it touches on that. Still have to read it.

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    dizzy? what part? maybe colors too bright?

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    or try pregnancy test ;-))

  • Dave_San

    Serg – Depending on your system, data, and quant skills, you should be able to create your own. I'm lazy and I've paid for a subscription service that does my crunch work for me. But in the linked articles, he explains the derivation of the indicator and how it is calculated.

  • calibear

    Today has been great! I made up for the paper loss yesterday from that strong last hour and them some.

  • DMS425

    Burned, -1 for me.

  • molecool

    Great – we'll have some Alaskan bimbo run the world. Yaaaayyyy!!!

    You know when I wished as a kid to have a role in a Twilight Zone episode I didn't think I would get my wish.

  • molecool

    Must… not… look… at the lines… must …. resist…

    Khaaaaaannnn!!!!

  • molecool

    What's up? Bad day?

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    so you think SPX 1210 by tomorrow?

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    looks like Bernie will be working this weekend as well – saving brother from Lehman ;-))

  • DMS425

    To say the least. Stopped out, this vol is killing me. Buy ,Sell, Buy, Sell, Etrade is lovin me. I think my commisions this year are approaching my total return.

  • C.C. Rider
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  • molecool

    Fantastic day today – up 50%. Thank you FSLR, BIDU, GOOG, and CCJ.

    Oh, btw that is 50% on 50% capital invested – so, it's actually closer to 100% up. Best…. day….. EVER.

  • molecool

    It's a definite possibility but I think we push up a bit first.

  • molecool

    And roast we did today – my account is sizzling today 🙂

    What's a 'prisoner'?

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    too many longs and not enough shorts. And one short AVID, went up 2%
    depressing day. At least stop losses kicked in at 3%
    MLM, IWM and HD shorts worked, still holding.
    went short FRO, today.

  • Dave_San

    Bwahahaha – a trapped bull long…. Awaiting his turn at the meat processing plant…

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    APC up 8% AH and INTC up 2% XME up 2.5% in AH.
    Might be the beginnings of a commodity rally.
    Rally in this case means (dead cat bounce)
    then go back to shorting.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    FDX up 4% and TXN up 5%, I'm hoping for a mixed market tomorrow.
    So, my longs have a chance and my shorts have a chance.

  • DMS425

    So you understand my pain. I did not mind the stop part, the loss is what hurt. WDC and CRM continue to work, other than that all else sucked it up today. I thought we were good for a few more days. I was wrong.

  • DMS425

    So you understand my pain. I did not mind the stop part, the loss is what hurt. WDC and CRM continue to work, other than that all else sucked it up today. I thought we were good for a few more days. I was wrong.

  • ZigZag

    Mole, Thats what I'm thinking too. Look at the $TICK index. It closed at -1006. This has only happened twice in ten years. I'm thinking they run it up one more time before the castration begins.

  • molecool

    Yup, that's pretty nice on the $TICK.

    BTW, your zigzap is pointing the wrong way right now – get that fixed, will ya? 😉

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    Wow! what a nice day!
    I'm serving “Total Marabuzo Sandwich” with 2 hot dogs on a stick
    Free refreshments at your house ;-))
    http://forkoholic.com/images/marabuzosandwich.jpg

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hey ye evil turtle.

    Among sea of uncertain souls, you guys are definitely top tier, whattya softening about?

    When I see something large coming I scatter scouts everywhere, 1,2,3 contracts of farther out than I like to trade. Then I can feel the movement in my skin. And when I feel it is riped, I move in with front or second month.
    I thought you traded similar way, no?

    And when I sense the industry wide movement starting, I have no problem chasing and biting.
    Through this run I must have chased and got out of AAPL and RIMM 7 times all together, while other positions are in auto pilot…

    But judging by your(2 turtles) chart skills, I can't hardly see you would have any problem seizing the moment!
    Good work fellas!

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    it's just an additional tool, no need to give up EWT. I'll convert you when you ready ;-))

  • molecool

    Have to take you under my wing here – Berk and I went through the same pains several times. Got all loaded up on put positions and ready to rock & roll. Then the market turned against us and we got stopped out of 80% of our puts just to see them move down again IN A MAJOR WAY. Good example: ZEUS – I could show you dozens of others which would have made us a fortune had we only been able to stick it out.

    So, to make a long story short – we finally smartended up. First up we are now buying 2nd or 3rd month out + we doubled our stop ratio. So, when we see things move our way we add some front month options which we then can ride for a day or two. But this limits our risk and enables us to stick things out. I also have left 50% of my cash available for major hedge positions. That for instance saved my butt on Monday – I actually delayed all my stops in TOS so that I would not get stopped out of them (hoping that we would turn and I would then either keep them or manually close them out if needed). The hedge mitigated some of the damage which was very helpful psychologically. This in turn allowed us the luxury to start buying front month options on some tech stocks, which paid extremely well yesterday and in particular today. We started adding every time there was a rip up – by the end of yesterday we had a good number of Sep puts which were paid for with the previous option at the last rip. The Oct didn't make that much money but they are long term anyway and will really kick in later down the line.

    Today we closed out 50% of the Sep options since they started to push into the money. BTW, most of my Oct puts are still trading ABOVE my original stops. However, I'm not losing much money on them due to the strategy of employing a hedge when I deemed things to turn dicey.

    The other alternative is to simply swing trade but that is not what I'm interested in. My goal is to position myself with longer dated options for a major drop coming this month and probably lasting into October.

    Hope this helps a little – I've been there and it's very frustrating to see this stuff happen over and over again. So, change your strategy and hedge against it. Forget about making money right now – just focus on “placing trades at very defensible positions” – which is during rips. Don't buy while the sword is falling unless you are paying for those with existing units you already own. Then move the stop up accordingly so you 'lock in your prior unit'.

    Have fun and don't give up 😉

  • T.B. Aurelius

    She is not a bimbo.
    She is the wicked witch from Narnia.
    I fear her. She is scary.

  • molecool

    Yes, dumb sanctimonious religious fanatics do scare me a lot. Look where we are now – you can thank those people for what this country is about to face in the coming years.

    What I DON'T get is that 50% of folks out there are ready for 4 more years of that. Beats me – but I guess like with trading options it seems that the majority of people is usually wrong.

    “The best case against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter” — Winston Churchill

  • molecool

    I'm always open minded. This is the forum to share it with all of us. That's why we built this place – nothing like it out there. Only people talking AT other people – we are different.

  • molecool

    I just actually posted something pertinent to DMS further above – please take a look. Seems to be working at I doubled my capital today 😉

  • molecool

    What's for desert? Dow 10,000 with strawberries and whip?

  • molecool

    I'm SO shorting LM tomorrow…

  • Mimi

    Hey Mole do you think we will get a pop tomorrow in the am…and then a fall?

  • tralee

    I like it!

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Fork_Master_Serg

    nice place, and evil as well 😉

  • exintrunk

    I myself have asked that “what the heck you were thinking” many times….

  • exintrunk

    i read today that the esteemed Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value fund managed to position his fund to own about 13% of Freddy adding shares as reciently as last week. the total stake was worth $660 million Thursday. it is worth about $70 million today and really zero by the time all the kicking and screaming is done. where the hell did he place his stop loss and what was he thinking?
    rumor has it he is looking to by LEH shares tomorrow.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Double the cap??
    Haba, Haba!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Sounds like a plan!

    I myself, being a single cell brain creature, cannot handle hedging. The concept just does not sit with me.

    Instead I sometimes buy 1/4 ~ 1/2 qtty. of position I have in mind.
    Either direction it moves I add on.
    If it moves against, I wait and snipe at the next inflection point, and usually it turns there.
    And if it moves my direction, I load up at confirmation point.

    Pre-requisite is extremely accurate chart reading, that I have such conviction, there is no room for debate.
    Therefore I only use this method occasionally.

    Basically I think we are using same tactic with different detail.
    Represent!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I's also likin the fact that you is openly helping others without hang-ups.
    Respect!

  • http://www.FinancingIdea.com Serge aka "The Fork Master"

    nice place, and evil as well 😉

  • exintrunk

    I myself have asked that “what the heck you were thinking” many times….

  • exintrunk

    i read today that the esteemed Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value fund managed to position his fund to own about 13% of Freddy adding shares as reciently as last week. the total stake was worth $660 million Thursday. it is worth about $70 million today and really zero by the time all the kicking and screaming is done. where the hell did he place his stop loss and what was he thinking?
    rumor has it he is looking to by LEH shares tomorrow.

  • T.Bear. Aurelius

    Double the cap??
    Haba, Haba!

  • T.Bear. Aurelius

    Sounds like a plan!

    I myself, being a single cell brain creature, cannot handle hedging. The concept just does not sit with me.

    Instead I sometimes buy 1/4 ~ 1/2 qtty. of position I have in mind.
    Either direction it moves I add on.
    If it moves against, I wait and snipe at the next inflection point, and usually it turns there.
    And if it moves my direction, I load up at confirmation point.

    Pre-requisite is extremely accurate chart reading, that I have such conviction, there is no room for debate.
    Therefore I only use this method occasionally.

    Basically I think we are using same tactic with different detail.
    Represent!

  • T.Bear. Aurelius

    I's also likin the fact that you is openly helping others without hang-ups.
    Respect!