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Back From Whence We Came

Back From Whence We Came

by The MoleJune 21, 2012

Well, we didn’t get our VIX sell signal yesterday but let the record state that evil rat ninja strike team (i.e. my esteemed readers) were well prepared for a possible correction near the 100-day SMA. That’s right – we don’t need no stinkin’ VIX signals! The 100-day served as a brick wall as suggested yesterday – downgrade news today be damned.

Did we predict the inexorability of a steep drop from right there? Of course not – that would be a pompous claim and not in line with how we roll here. But it comes to show that simple technical analysis always always trumps trading the news.

For the considerate charting connoisseurs among you steel rats it may be almost ironic that we yet again find the spoos below that dreaded beloved volume hole.

Decent odds that we’ll get a confirmed VIX signal tomorrow (unless the tape turns on a dime again), but frankly it’s rather academic at this point, isn’t it? That’s not a bullish formation by a long shot. Of course from a pure technical perspective  move like this is messy as hell.

Quick revisit of previous setups: That was a nice short entry on the NZD/USD yesterday and we are good to go until target near 0.7813. You should move your stop down to your entry now (or lower based on your stop rules).

Dollar – another nice inside day + NR4 entry yesterday. We sure are starting to enjoy this potent combo. Anyway,  a close above the 82.305 NLBL would be confirmation and I would hold this sucker unless we drop back below it or get to target. I know – it’s tough to gauge how far to hold it if there is a shake out attempt. Usually after a big candle like this I take partial profits and keep a few contracts in the running with a stop near the next support zone – in this case the NLBL which we have already breached.

Crude – what can I say? Didn’t I tell you guys I loved this setup? Take partial profits and keep some coin in the running in case we go all the way.

And of course there are a few goodies in the works on a day like this – the Mole has got you covered. Please step into my brand new lair (for real as I moved to a long term piso near La Lonja today):

[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

AUD/USD – good short if we stay below that NLSL. If we pop higher than I’d try a possible bounce play here. BTW, I hope you took partial profits yesterday as I suggested? Meh, who am I kiddin’… 😉


USD/CHF – we’ve got a possible short here. And again we are happy to play the other side if we push above that NLBL at 0.957.


And natgas is currently painting another inside day + NR4. Can’t promise it will work as well as the last one but that’s why we take each entry like the mindless stainless steelrats that we are.

Bottom Line: I am pretty ambivalent about where this is going right now and I would not suggest that you try to figure it out. If closed below that volume hole however will serve as resistance again, so be cognizant of that. Keep an eye also on the spoos’ NLSL at 1324.5 – it’s good for a few more days and if we close below for more than a day or two it may just lead us lower.


By the way – I think I deserve extra street creds for putting together this post today. I just moved into a my place today and I neither have an office desk nor a decent chair – this has been put together operating on a kitchen table. And by the way it’s hot as f..ck here today – 36 C or 97F – and of course I won’t have a functioning A/C until this Saturday!

Oh yeah, and I had only for hours of sleep…


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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