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Back To My Old Evil Self

Back To My Old Evil Self

by The MoleJuly 8, 2011

I know how you feel – Mole has been quiet so you probably just came over here from ZeroHedge and now you’re convinced that the world is going to end on Monday, if not sooner. Maybe – I guess one of those days they will be proven right – but before you throw your money into the abyss of disenchanted short positions you may want to look at a few of my charts and then perhaps reconsider. Yes, the economy is fucked – we all know that. Hasn’t stopped them from extending and pretending and from using every single trick in the book – even if that means changing the rules mid game yet again. Do you bears ever learn?

Before we get to equities let me show you what’s has been happening in corn. As you may remember I proposed a long trade last week when it was pushing outside both of my Bollingers. Now, mind you – I know practically nothing of corn – Volar is among some of my fellow traders who loves the grains and often sends me all kinds of research and statistical evidence.

Personally, I don’t really have the time for all this (plus I’m lazy) – instead I wait for technical setups that I simply can’t pass up and on July 1st that setup was there for the taking. Of course most folks looked at that huge gap and simply couldn’t pull the trigger there – but that is exactly what separates the men from the mice. When a technical setup presents itself that satisfies your rules – you dig deep and then damn well take it – no questions asked.

Alright, I have to fix the messaging on Helter.Scalper – sorry about that. So, let’s get to equities:
[amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Now, I have no idea how low we’re going to drop from here or if that is it. But what I can tell you is that 1320 should provide some significant support. And what does that mean for us? If we get there we hold our nose and take the entry!

Now, what ‘coincidence’ that we dropped to our current NLSL and then bounced back – those coincidences keep adding up I say! Thanks again for Chris Carolan for coming up with the Net-Lines concept – but I have recently noticed that he uses them quite a bit differently than I thought. First up the way he calculates them appears to be different from the way I’m doing it – I only use the wicks – Chris seems to use the closes. I also use several net-lines concurrently whereas he expires any previous ones. Quite frankly – thus far I like my way better (and of course I’m biased) but if you guys have any observations you would like to share – I’m all ears.

Anyway, as long as we remain above that NLSL we should be able to pull this one out of the hole again. A close below means we probably go to SPX 1320, and you know what to do then.

Crude is currently retesting its 25-day MA and as long as it stays above we should hold here. Quite frankly I don’t see too much of an edge here – support and resistance clusters everywhere.

Copper barely budged today and I still think we can make it to our 4.5 target zone. I painted tomorrow’s NLSL already which is 4.301 – if you are long you don’t want to see a close below that.

Silver is basically at target now and as there is no mojo this is a good spot to get out.

The Euro seems poised to touch our 1.413 target. If you are short it’s fair to hold until there but with the possibility of currency interventions plus a bit of a triangle situation here I would probably take profits right here – best to not overstay our welcome.

Alright, I have some code to dig through – so I’m going to be quiet until Sunday when I’ll post my weekly forecast. Frankly, I’m glad it’s the weekend already as Squeaky’s passing really took the wind out of my sails. Will need a few more days to recover and revert back to my old evil self – grieving and trading doesn’t really mix very well as you can imagine.

Many thanks again for the flood of good wishes which offered much consolation – if you have a pet please give it an extra treat today courtesy of crusty ole’ Mole.




About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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