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Back With A Vengeance!
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Back With A Vengeance!

by The MoleFebruary 21, 2019

The mighty market mole is back! And with a vengeance! What I actually didn’t tell you guys yesterday is that I had also thrown out my lower back just two days earlier. So, along with my inflamed tooth I had a bit of a double whammy going on there. But no more! I woke up this morning without any dental pain and after spending an hour at my osteopath I am now feeling like I was just reborn. Booyakaa!!

You often hear about people taking their health for granted – but honestly I never did even when I was younger. In my book any day above ground is a good day and if it’s one without pain or suffering it’s nothing short of a blessing. Alright, enough with the Tony Robbins routine, let’s look at the market!

And despite my recent ailing condition how has my trading been going? I tell you how….

Poor Charley… talking about making some shitty choices in your life.

Anyway, the slow motion crawl higher has continued, despite all the hate and venom that has accompanied this rally. But that’s how the cookie crumbles folks. The more people agree on something the lesser the odds that it actually pans out this way.

I’m moving my stop to 1.5R and if stopped out we’ll reassess the situation. Poco a poco, cómo se dice aquí en España.

Gold is busy shaking off some weak hands but it still has space to go until it hits my trail at 1R.

Copper not only opened above my trail at break/even but 1R above my entry! OUCH!! That ought to teach me not to mess with those lesser metals.

Fortunately I managed to grab an almost perfect entry on the EUR/USD and my trail is now at break/even. Apparently Europe heading straight into a lengthy recession is positive news for the EUR bulls.

Which once again goes to show how price action repeatedly spits in the face of fundamentals or macro economics. You know how much I hate to win being long the Euro, but hey – if you can’t beat ’em join ’em!!

Hollywood Gossip

Since it’s Oscar time: I actually ran into Bruce Willis about a decade ago out in Malibu. I was standing in line at the Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf waiting for my java injection. And suddenly there he is – standing right next me! And I swear to everything that I hold sacred – he sightly turns, frowns, and gives me EXACTLY the same look as in that featured image. LOL!

Obviously his inner McClane was telling him to keep a very close eye on that suspicious looking Kraut next to him. And how right he was! I never asked him for an autograph or anything, as that’s not my style (and I value my life). But I’ve got to tell you, that’s one of the rare times in my life I was actually a bit star struck, and I had ran into many other stars before (living in Hollywood and all).

So Bruce – if you ever read this: Simon says: “Better luck next time!!”

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Jason13

    Eventually the macros might matter. Philly Fed business index collapsing. Carry on.

  • Jason13

    Bonds selling hard.

  • Jason13

    Wheat had a nice reversal (so did Soybeans)…I’m 80% filled on Wheat.

  • Darkthirty

    Today is bad news bad news? I didn’t get the memo. Seems ES bounced off the bottom of the channel from 2/8, yet the last high died in the middle..

  • ridingwaves

    2745-50 SPX looks to be next move…
    go BXK….

  • ridingwaves

    eyeing the 5 yr ZF, the chart is really pretty setting up, just need a little correction…

  • ridingwaves

    Mole, we probably passed each other at that coffee shop, I used to work near Pepperdine and got my fill of stars dressed down looking like a human or something in Malibu Square…

  • zzezzezz
  • Ted

    It’s not this or that as the pundits claim. The top was hit before midnight last night. Small caps have been selling off since then. Yesterday was the end of the cycle (fib time) February 20th. which I posted last week. Gerb called it the 40 day cycle which it may be.

  • mSquare

    No. It is different this time – really!

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    looks like pullback to open and short for the day

  • zzezzezz

    Agreed. That’s my play (at least for today).

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like Oil Prices are being defended again. FWIW, this morning’s oil supply report had a forecast of a 2.9 M B’s Build and the actual report showed a build of 3.7 M B’s. We have a long time to go before today’s close but as of 11:46 AM EST, Oil is down 20 Cents.

    I’ve said it many times before that I believe the supply and demand by end consumers doesn’t matter as much as the supply and demand of oil contracts that are for sale. It can be explained in many different bull shit ways but barring an unforseen market shock, it wouldn’t surprise me to see $60 relatively soon.

    Yesterday, I mentioned that I was working on a new plan to trade gold again. I finished my back test this morning and it was not very good. Looks like I’ll just gradually up my R level a little on Oil. No sense messing around with something that I know I suck at. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 31.38 for the day

  • Yoda

    I am looking at this turd as a potential victim for my next trade. Price action has been very tight which shows in the BB. Earnings date is on 27/02. When it comes out of its range, we should see some explosive action. Seasonality favors a long trade from March.

    Anticipating fake price moves until then.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/626e9f9849757b4e934771e338f994f50ed4800e3eda0aa404eaf6a9493bb1db.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m in a bunch of labd since earlier.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Oooot… 31.15… didn’t take long

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying again TVIX 31.01 ES patter moving like molasses. Playing with underside of rally wedge line

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e00b54dfe256600eefbd328162770039aa83997777dc981744e6adf8125ba665.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Glad you are feeling better Chief …. $SPX Today’s bounce Yup the daily 5 ema SPX has broken below the lower trend line from February 8 Looking to add to short
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Small signal range but the odds of a correction are increasing. Tomorrow is Friday and week #9 is supposed to be more positive:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6a3d687637e7f8c0d87205f5ce9d013e67357f4b456adcc95736cace9a395abf.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup – Malibu Square. Great sushi place there too – I think it was Nobu ($$$). Way back I was dating some college chick at Pepperdine – she gave me the tour several times (ahem).

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Does anyone know what caused the spike up in futes last night?
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Times like this are like waterholes…fights break out.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark There had to be some kind of news. This market is news driven
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Slow here – where is everybody?

  • Mark Shinnick

    News….just the excuse for things that want to happen anyway.

  • zzezzezz

    Going full-short-tard and hanging on! Including me!
    (just kidding)

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    China 6 memorandums of understanding.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Adding a small amount to existing short (SH)
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Waiting for some kind of fun to return………. not quite as exciting watching lately

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The breaking of the lower trend line from February 8 can be extended from December 26 forming a parallel channel. IMO this break is significant and bearish with a bearish close today below it’s 5 ema approx 2772
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Present…in my seat with two sharpened #2 pencils.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL

  • mSquare

    LB reports next week Wed 2/27. Looking at options expiring next week the $27 straddle is about $3 so that market is pricing for a $25.5x-$28.4x range after earnings.

    If I were forced to trade this, I would more likely take the other side of your short! Buy it here just under $27 and sell calls to hedge against it going lower (or profit at call looses most of premium after earnings known). Such a trade could earn 5% in a week…

  • Darkthirty

    Kim K’s ass got fatter…………

  • Darkthirty

    ES channel is still being honored, kinda…..

  • Jason13

    Hey gang…back from work…here’s a little FYI. Fear/Greed, for those who believe in those emotions. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/47ea9b5c2891bbdc545afbfbd69a1165a68f6214de66b28c2ad39129b1b94bc9.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Jason
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    This drop’s got a little Zero juice behind it…wouldn’t you say, Mole?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Love it Jason I nailed it Bro or should I say Compatriot !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bruce Willis was LUCKY to have seen the Market Mole…..

  • Yoda

    Thanks for the very informative comment.

  • Jason13

    You’re a compatriot only after passing thru my personal Canadian initiation Ceremony…involves beaver pelts, our anthem and a Mountie on a Moose….;)

  • Jason13

    Oh crap the PPT bots are back..Zero reversing a bit here.

  • bankwalker
  • mSquare

    Bought some stock here $26.8x. Aim to sell calls against it to hedge into earnings (hopefully when stock is mid $27s). Stop $26.1x the 5day lows

  • Jason13

    Julie have you got 2739 as a support floor if we get there?

  • BobbyLow

    Julie you might want to take a look at the Financials. They’ve been on a hell of a run and when they get weaker they could be a hell of a short. I’m still looking for another sector to play with and have been looking at the Russel Financial Services Sector R1RGSFS of which the 3X FAS and FAZ are based on. Or you might want to just look at XLF instead for a short down the road.

    I like to take slow days like today and crunch numbers to see if I can find another player that might be a fit for me. I haven’t finished testing yet but this sector is looking promissing right now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason 2740 as a level 2742 is also a level
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry mate – I was having dinner. And yeah – as I mentioned further below, the odds of a reversal are starting to increase. The Zero signal was decent – not overwhelming but hey, price is pointing down.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason 2735 is a master level Breaking below OUCH !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 60 min MACD 8,13,5 below signal and center lines First time since February 7 – 8 About Time
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Well geez that’s pretty damn close…LOL…come on girl work with me!

  • Jason13
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL I consistently watch $BKX and BAC (banking big dog) BKX and BAC pulling back today with a possible breakout point failure
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Jason13

    LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL! Jason 2735 is a master level very important
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The breakdown from a rising wedge is usually fast and furious. Let the profit taking begin
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I call it the parting of the seas when the green and red go their opposite ways..almost like Moses Mole is walking between them ready to hand down the 10 commandments of trading.

  • Darkthirty

    I haven’t trapped a beaver with a decent pelt in years………..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Everyone Have A Great rest Of Day IMO Bears turn at the feeding trough
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    My Van Tharp trading log entry about how I feel entering each trade.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f64e7745ae0895d499daa2b3b035a3ffe1ab147773abc1f5afd4b6a0c1075d6d.jpg

  • Ted

    yup

  • Jason13

    LOL

  • BKXtoZERO

    Just another bull flag? Pulled most of day vix off…left small on to add to existing position……. Yes RW… I am down. When I get up I will have some fun posting.

  • bankwalker
  • mSquare

    But, $SPX closed above your 2772, so perhaps a bounce? (say on continuing bullish remarks from China talks next week)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I just won two tickets to fhloston paradise.
    should I travel with the redhead?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b3c347f502cb59769f5faf1c87d5c404ea9d1cbce8d88bfd2d0ba9843132878.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I should start my own sect and get myself some disciples. Great cash generator and it may even be tax free (plus the sex is good).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Guys – PLEASE NO POLITICS. I had enough grieve in the past two months…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This guy gets it.

  • bankwalker

    Sorry …. I don’t know why this is considered politics.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is a trading blog mate. My place my rules.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Listen to the man!!

  • Yoda

    Hell yeah!

  • BKXtoZERO

    SP to 2900 tomorrow… EIGHT (8) FED Speakers gracing us tomorrow. Each speech should be good for 15-20 points.

    Fed 08:15 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks
    10:15 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) and San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speak
    12:00 PM Fed Vice Chairman Clarida (FOMC voter) speaks
    12:30 PM New York Fed Executive Vice President Potter speaks
    01:30 PM Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks
    01:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks
    01:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks
    05:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks

  • Ronebadger

    Oh yeah, I picked up that Caddy I mentioned a couple weeks ago…it’s a little dirty, but seems to shine through… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/24befc90124ed6f23f47208dfc913a98891fff954d6d96b5fc579e5d0d3ad355.jpg

  • Ronebadger
  • BKXtoZERO

    Cool… Enjoy. You gonna pimp it out or go classic?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Needs a lift kit and some spinning 17″ rims

  • BKXtoZERO

    I failed to use my new powers to delete

  • BKXtoZERO

    uhhhh….Mostly guys on here Sir….

  • BobbyLow

    I’ll bet it has a nice soft ride with very little if any road noise.

    And at least you can tell it’s a Cadillac even from a distance. Almost all the new cars today have the same look.

  • Jason13

    Anybody have this stock in their 401k?….um yeah, best you be building a plank off your first story balcony. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0e12732afc51dcb22f3adcc5a2e115a46689d2c76fb1d1cb87ded77fca732bc.jpg

  • Ronebadger

    Classic…fix it up a little more…maybe show it in the spring, see how it goes

  • Ronebadger

    Yes, it’s cushy…similar to my old ’73 Town Car. Quiet, good visibility, drum brakes in the rear, gas-fill behind the license plate, chrome wheels, leather, vinyl roof is almost perfect, 350-V8 (Corvette LT1) engine, whitewalls (who has that anymore?), skirts, rear wheel drive (like it’s supposed to be), CD + cassette player, R235-70 15″ tires … Yes, a throw-back…last of the big Caddys.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    So I know that EW is taboo..
    WHy? because at any point in time there can be a myriad of wave counts – bearish – bullish etc.
    However – we do know that markets (and probably many other things) move in waves… you just have to look at a chart to see that. could be a natural cycle inherent to all things on earth – and in many time frames.

    So at the moment the market is resuming its bull run, or correcting the decline in late 2018.

    If scenario 1 – i.e. bull run then this rally can be a first wave up …which will be followed by a wave down – probably deep enough to suck in bears and and make the public believe that the bear is back..

    if scenario 2 – correction of 208 decline.. then there will be a fall – which will suck in the bulls expecting scenario 1 !

    Which is why EW is only useful really in retrospect and possibly helping with probability for next moves ..not certainty..

    Anyway : the point is that even if it’s a bull or bear scenario – the higher probability is the next multiday/week move is down …doesn’t mean another weej up..already had 7 or 8..

    We KNOW there are waves..but knowing where we are in a wave is the tough part!

    Then it all depends on what behaviour is most prevailing..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01959891a4a9804f3fab8b5b8b821587d809c39c158abd25182af49546f0be18.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Always felt sick in spongy suspension…

  • Ronebadger

    It’s still guesswork, what wave you are in at the time…you CAN figure out the pattern, but only after the fact…But, I’d say, it’s still a piece of the overall puzzle.

  • Jason13

    Not tradeable but this is an important macro indicator chart to see. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/60e4d57e60e7323ae27a77a2eaf1183e00a6670c54e8ebcaadff7a9dbea92871.png

  • Jason13

    Kraft Heinz dropped 17% AH…Berkshire owns 325 million shares….OUCH! How many 401Ks own that one too.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Funny but I was just thinking how I don’t miss economics, or trying to make sense of economics as it really doesn’t relate to trading. I realized that it had been about 2 years since I looked at that stuff at all. Back when I thought I understood it I lost a lot of money.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes that’s exactly what I was trying to say..

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I can remember working on those tanks at the body shop I worked in right out of high school. Some Caddy’s had a front bumper with 10 pieces to it. Took three of us to lift it off the car.

  • Jason13

    Back in the good ole days before the market wasn’t just for the 1% and macros mattered…..either way, I still like to know a 30,000 ft birds eye view even though I won’t trade on it either.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can’t believe you asked him that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Excellent choice, sir.

  • ElToroLoco

    Just saying … 🙂
    ElToroLoco • 3 days ago
    ES has to breath here 2783 …. and wait ….

    •Edit•Reply•Share ›
    Avatar
    ElToroLoco • 3 days ago
    Good Place to get out of Gold 1344 and wait …

  • ElToroLoco

    NG, Copper Anyone?

  • Jason13

    To buy or sell?

  • evilasevildoes

    that stock has done that before look who is on the board

  • ElToroLoco

    thoughts? bears always find a reason to sell, bulls a reason to buy, but I see the areas…. I have been taking spoons on NG since a couple of weeks I called out as I saw that it will consolidate but I know it is too early for many investors who like to see the trend more in place. Cooper it is area for me to consolidate and continue or reverse I dont know… but I like 3.0 area.